climate change is due to ocean variations – not co 2 william m. gray department of atmospheric...
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CLIMATE CHANGE IS DUE TO OCEAN VARIATIONS – NOT
CO2
William M. GrayDepartment of Atmospheric
Science
July 2014
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There is no scientific
justification for the CO2 global warming
hypothesis.
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FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE STUDY (1979)
(The Charney Report)
Doubling CO2 will lead to global
∆T of 1.5-4.5°C (~3°C)
Due to positive water-vapor feedback ∆T ∆ moisture reduced global OLR (IR)
∆CO2 RH const.
1°C 2°C = 3°C WARMING
- grossly unrealistic
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REALITY
GCMs
IR
0
IR
0
AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION INCREASE
ENHANCED
SUPPRESSED
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125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
PR
ESS
UR
E (
mb)
10 0.5 qs
10 2 qs
10 5 qs
10x550
10x220
10x.55
30 x 8
Rain 165
Cb
RH = 75/240 = 31%
Rain Eff. = 165/240 = 69%
75 vapor subsidence
8 qs
Net 240 Condensation
More IR14 -
12 -
11 -
10 -
ALT
ITU
DE (
km)
1/4 1/16
10 km
UPPER TROPOSPHERE
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Lapse-Rate
191 198198
Wm-2
water- vapor
water- vapor
T = 243oK
T = 241oKht
ht
241o 243o
24
IR
0.2 g/cm2
191 Wm-2
0.2 g/cm2
IR
DRY
WET
COLD WARM
Wm-2
Temp.
HOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS UPPER MOISTURE CONTROLS THE
EMISSION LEVEL AND IR FLUX TO SPACE
Moist
Dry
MORELESS
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0Vertical Motion (ω) GRID SPACE
– ω
– ωωd – ωu
IR = 2
RH = High
IR = 4
RH = 60%RH = 100%
GCM grid ω
Sub-grid up & down
motion concentration
MOIST
DRYER
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Δq ΔRH
Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)
Pres
sure
(hPa
)
Pres
sure
(hPa
)
HANSEN – early model
+ 6%+ 50%
Changes for a doubling of CO2
WAY TOO MUCH VAPOR
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Top of Atmos.
Sfc.
2 X CO2 Restriction
Sen. Heat 0.5
Evap. 2.5
IR 0.7
3.7
Equilibrium Response
3.7
Double CO2
= 3.7
3.7 IR
3.7
ΔT = 0.2-0.3°C 3% ↑
342 Solar
342 IR +
Albedo
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GCMs
Projected Reality
Net Global Warming
Direct CO2 Warming
∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback
Warming
Net Global Warming
Direct CO2 Warming w/Rainfall
∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative
Feedback
1oC2oC
3oC
0.5oC
-0.2oC
0.3oC
DOUBLING CO2
SURFACE VALUES
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DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION
CHANGES FROM SALINITY VARIATIONS
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S. Pole N. Pole
Ocean Mean
+3oCCURRENT Poles and
Ocean Cold
mixing mixing
S. Pole N. Pole
CRETACEOUS PERIOD Poles
and Ocean Warm
mixing mixing
Ocean Mean
+17oC
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THC (or AMO)
STRONG
THC (or AMO)
WEAK
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1 2
3
H
H
Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
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SAS SAS
THC
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~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -25
~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -35
~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -15
-25
-35
- 15
Mixed Layer Thermocline
Mixed Layer
Mixed Layer
SP NP
SP NP
SP NP
MEAN
∆E = 0
∆E = - 10
∆E = + 10
THC STRONG
THC WEAK
COOLING + More Rain
more upwelling
WARMING - Less Rain less
upwelling
Steady State
1510
15
5
20
10
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MORE UPWELLING
COOLING
LESS UPWELLING
COOLING
More Rain
Less Rain
GLOBAL COOLING
GLOBAL WARMING
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extrapolated
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19981880 1910 1940 1975 2030
Multi-Century
Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century
Multi-Century
TEMPTEMP
0THC
?
mean
neg. ?
Multi-century + decadal
THC+THC+
THC+
THC-THC-
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19TH Century 20TH Century
Globe Cooler Globe Warmer
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21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996)
FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 25-
30 YEARSWilliam M. Gray(written in 1996)
We expect that these changing Ocean (or MOC) patterns will lead to a small global surface temperature cooling. The mean global surface temperature change in the next 20-30 years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences
and be one of weak cooling, not warming.
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• The Ocean, not CO2 increase is the primary driver for climate change.
• CO2 increases are beneficial.
• Climate research must become free of political domination.
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Wm. M. Gray climate change
papers for Heartland
Conferences:ICCC3 – 2009 (NY)ICCC4 – 2010 (NY)
ICCC7 – 2012 (Chicago)ICCC9- 2014 (Las
Vegas)http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/