climate change planning enhancing climate resiliency ... · • continued activities next fy to...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Planning
Enhancing Climate Resiliency
across Manitoba
Presentation at January 28, 2015 Climate Resiliency and
Infrastructure Workshop: A project of the Prairies
Regional Adaptation Collaborative
Randall Shymko
Climate Change Branch
Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship
January 28, 2015
Climate Change Branch
Climate Change Branch mandate outlined in
Tomorrow Now
Developing a new provincial Climate
Change Action Plan-three pillars..
Developing Manitoba’s Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy
Status of New Climate Change
Planning in Manitoba:
• Govt direction for new plan..
• Consultations conducted past year plus
– Ag, water, infra, transport, bldgs, large
emitters, civil society
• New Plan-three pillars
• Engagement within Govt, beyond
Key themes from Transportation
and Infrastructure Session
• Transportation and infra sectors vulnerable to climate
change impacts now and in future
• Infrastructure designed on historical data
• Challenges to access reliable climate data/info.
• Outdated codes and standards
• Need for fwd thinking approach in decision making
• Further engagement, assess climate info needs
• Seek partnerships for training, capacity building
Prairies Regional Adaptation
Collaborative (PRAC) • Focus on engagement, networking,
integration/mainstreaming, capacity bldg
• Prairie focus/need: climate resiliency in
infrastructure across the Prairies
• AB, SK and MB activities on the go
• Inter provincial forum-Wpg late March
• Continued activities next FY to Feb/2016 (ie pilots)
Other Climate Adaptation..in progress
• MB-NU Supply Chain study
• Mining & Economics Regional Study
• SW MB/SE SK Energy Sector Risks to
Extreme climate events..
GoM Adaptation Pathway Objectives
Increased awareness and capacity of government
departments to assess climate risks and vulnerabilities
Enhanced sharing of data, knowledge and tools
between government and stakeholders
Improved capacity to integrate adaptation into policy,
planning &operations and coordinate cross-cutting efforts
Increased engagement of, and collaboration within and
between government and stakeholders
Ongoing monitoring and periodic evaluation processes
in place to asses progress on adaptation
The Adaptation Process
Source:
Adaptation:
Linking
Research
and
Practice; in;
Canada in a
Changing
Climate:
Sector
Perspective
s on
Impacts
and
Adaptation ,
2014)
Challenges Opportunities Addressing Uncertainty Reduce, manage, accept uncertainty
Information overload Communicate what's needed in
digestible formats; non technical
Limited HR and $ Build upon existing internal proven
processes, frameworks; find efficiencies
Translation, integration Impart relevant info. To address existing
risks, stressors, priorities, use various
media; amplify upon existing initiatives
Too busy keeping up with existing
priorities, initiatives
Climate risks impact many areas of our
dept. services, operations
Assessing vulnerabilities and risks is
too risky, solutions are too costly
Risks exist now. Risk of inaction can be
greater, Solutions can be many small
win-wins
Change management Seek to find win-win measures via
pilot/case studies, amplify and support
existing initiatives
The Need: Climate Impacts and
Resiliency Planning
• The climate is changing in MB..now!
• The climate is likely to continue to change
• Impacts are occurring now-ie north,
flooding
Photo credit: Colin Corneau
Photo source: cbc.ca
Photo source: o.canada.com
Photo credit: R. Canart, UNARD
Climate Extreme/Change Impacts in
Manitoba
Fire
Winter roads
Drought and low
water levels
Flood
Species at risk
The Response: Climate
Resiliency Opportunities
• We have responsibility to proactively
address the challenge
• Can enhance resiliency into existing
initiatives
• Innovative solutions and opportunities
need to be sought-engagement,
collaboration, pilots
Photo credit Bob Harrison
Thanks! Questions?
Global Precipitation, Freshwater
Trends from IPCC
• In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow
and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water
resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium
confidence).
• Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their
geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns,
abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing
climate change (high confidence).
• Source: IPCC, 2014 Summary for Policy Makers :https://ipcc-
wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
Come Hell & High Water: Managing a New Normal in a
Dangerously Changing West
R.W. Sandford, EPCOR Chair, Canadian Partnership Initiative,
United Nations Water for Life Decade, Director, W. Watersheds Research
Collaborative, Associate at Centre for Hydrology-Global Water Institute
• Dr. John Pomeroy and ..colleagues at U of S. have observed an increase
in rainfall on the Canadian prairies. More of that rainfall, however, is
being produced by multi-day rainfall events generated by frontal storms
coming for example from the Gulf of Mexico as opposed to shorter-term
localized convective rainfall events. This change also affects water quality.
• The amount of water the atmosphere can hold increases by about 7% per
degree Celsius...The problem is that our urban water supply systems and
storm water infrastructure are all designed for an earlier more stable
climate.
Come Hell & High Water: Managing a New Normal in a
Dangerously Changing West—cont..
• A recent report published by the National Academies of Science
in the United States in late 2011 confirms how serious the loss of
hydrologic stationarity could be in North America and around the
world if current trends persist. The report concludes continuing to
assume that the past is a guide to the future is no longer
practical or legally defensible. What this means is that much of
the old math and many of the old methods of managing water no
longer work. In a sense we have cast ourselves adrift.
• We need to understand that the threats posed to our way of life by
changing global hydro-climatic conditions demand a full
understanding of human impacts on the hydrological cycle and
where possible we have to manage those effects.
What We have Done to Date
• Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative
– Hydroclimatic studies-ARB-supply and
demand
– MAFRD and CWS (Forestry) Vuln & Risk
Assessment
– ADAPTtool-adaptive capacity of existing
policies
• Forestry branch vulnerability assessment
• Interlake Excess Moisture
• Future Scenarios of Hydroclimatic Variability in
the Assiniboine River
Water Demand Study 2012 Water demand continue to
increase over the study period,
may exceed firm annual yield.
Climate change is predicted to
strongly affect water demand
from the river.
Under climate change scenarios
examined, irrigation demand will
be dramatically higher than
planning accounts for by 2050.
More study needed- determine
potential for peak usage in
months when river flows are low.
Full Report at:
http://www.parc.ca/rac/fileManagement/u
pload/ARWDS_Final_Report_June_13_2
012Revised.pdf
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Assiniboine Basin Water Demand:
Water Balance Summary
ARB Future Water Supply An earlier spring melt is
predicted to cause an earlier spring freshet.
There is a risk of extreme spring floods may increase. This is due to predicted increases to fall, winter and spring precipitation, which could lead to higher flood flows if unusually high fall soil moisture is experienced.
Full Report at: http://www.parc.ca/rac/fileManagement/upload/2FINAL_AssiniboineRBasin_Hydrologic_Model_20120323.pdf
Photo credit: Roger Rempel, Stantec Consulting 2014
Pineland Precip trend and Projections
Annual
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pre
cip
itati
on
(m
m)
400
500
600
700
800
900
Seasonal Precipitation Trends and Projections
Winter
Pre
cipita
tion (
mm
)
40
60
80
100
120Spring
Pre
cipita
tion (
mm
)
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Summer
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fall
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
50
100
150
200
250
CWS Enhanced Climate Resiliency Process
•Define scope of work, themes, indicators (Ental, social, economic
• Build the CWS Team(s), engage other Depts., stakeholders
•Compile recent climate info in easy to understand formats
•Assess Exposure & Sensitivity to climatic & non climate stressors
•Assess Adaptive Capacity and Sensitivity of current system
•Understand climate observations and trends
•Understand future climate projections, uncertainties
•Identify the impacts and opportunities from climate extremes and
change to CWS priorities, planning, strategies, etc
•Assess vulnerabilities and risks across Dept, within branches
•Prioritize potential measures that reduce risk & vulnerability to
climate stress and take advantage of opportunities
•Implement plan within cycle of continuous improvement-
engagement, communication, monitoring
Step 1:
Get Prepared
Step 2:
Assess Current
Vulnerabilities
Step 3:
Develop & Apply future
Climate Scenarios
Step 4:
Evaluate Future
Vulnerabilities & Risks
Step 5:
Develop and Prioritize
Adaptation Measures
Step 6:
Implement Plan
Monitor and Review
Key Definitions Vulnerability : The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes,
resulting in challenges to achieving CWS/GoM objectives.
Adaptive capacity: The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to
adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to
respond to consequences
Exposure :The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental
functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or
cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
Sensitivity: The degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate variability or change.
Source: IPCC, Annex 2 Glossary, 2014
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-AnnexII_FINAL.pdf
Risk Assess.
Matrix
Source:
NRCan
2012
Do not accept
risk
Accept risk
Risk Tolerance
Level
Increasing Likelihood
Inc
reas
ing
Co
ns
eq
ue
nce
Do not accept
risk
Accept risk
Risk Tolerance
Level
Increasing Likelihood
Inc
reas
ing
Co
ns
eq
ue
nce
Risk Mgmt/Treatment
• Tolerate/accept risk (ie #1-4)--no action..
• Avoid the risk-discontinue activity/don’t start
• Engage/increase risk b/c opportunity
• Remove risk source
• Change the likelihood (not possible with CC)
• Change the consequences
• Share the risk
• Source: ISO 31000, 2010
The Climate Atlas of Manitoba Project
Funding provided by:
• Manitoba Climate & Green
Initiatives Branch
Researchers:
• Danny Blair & Ryan Smith,
UWinnipeg’s Richardson
College for the Environment
• Kyle Swystun, IISD (formerly)
Expert advice:
• Matthew Wiens, MB Agri-
Environment Knowledge
Centre
First Phase of Project:
• Uses 1950-2010 gridded weather data to
represent recent climate
• Uses only one Global Climate Model to
represent future (the RCP 8.5 W/m2
scenario)
• We need more GCM data!
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Average Winter Min Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Winter Max Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Spring Min Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Spring Max Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Summer Min Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Summer Max Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Fall Min Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Fall Max Temperature
1981-2010 2021-2050
Average Date of Last Spring Frost
1981-
2010
2021-
2050
Average Date of First Fall Frost
1981-
2010
2021-
2050
Average Length of Frost Free Period
1981-
2010
2021-
2050
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
First Phase of Project:
• Temperature data: we are
quite confident in the
quality of the GCM data
• Precipitation data: we are
less confident in the
quality of the GCM data
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Next Phase:
• Now in the process of
getting more and better
‘future’ data
Break out discussion questions:
What do you see as being the critical challenges for
Manitoba now and in the future as it engages in
infrastructure planning in an era of climate disruption?
What do you see as being the priority opportunities for
strengthening Manitobans capacity (within and outside of
the provincial government) to effectively increase the
resiliency of the province’s infrastructure to the impacts of
climate change?
As part of its activities, the PRAC is interested in
implementing a climate resiliency and infrastructure case
study/pilot work in Manitoba. What type of case
study/pilot project do you think should be undertaken?