climate change: some implications for children’s …impact of climate change on water resources in...

Climate Change: Some Implications forClimate Change: Some Implications forChildrenChildren’’s Developments Development

Annual Meeting of the Consultative GroupAnnual Meeting of the Consultative GroupEarly Childhood Care & DevelopmentEarly Childhood Care & Development

Santiago, Chile, October 16, 2007Santiago, Chile, October 16, 2007

Leonard A. Nurse, PhD Leonard A. Nurse, PhD University of the West Indies, BarbadosUniversity of the West Indies, Barbados

IPCC Lead Author for the Fourth Assessment Report, 2007IPCC Lead Author for the Fourth Assessment Report, [email protected]@cavehill.uwi.edu

Order of PresentationOrder of Presentation

• Introduction

• Specific issues of relevance to children’s development

◘ water resources availability◘ Food security◘ Sanitation and health◘ Safety and other issues

• A few thoughts for the CG to consider

Global Concern: Availability of Potable WaterGlobal Concern: Availability of Potable Water

• Although 70% of the earth's surface is water, < 3% is suitable for human consumption or irrigation.

• World population increased 300% in 20th century, BUT water use increased by 700%.

• Both the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Health Organizaton have identified access to safe water and water scarcityas very significant threats to human development in the new millennium.

• Although 2.4 billion people got access to safe drinking water for first time during 1990s, an estimated 1.7 billion people still lack safe drinking water.

• According to WHO, an estimated 2.2 million children die each year from diarrhea-related diseases, and many of these deaths could be prevented if there was greater access to safe drinking water.

Impact of Climate change on Water Resources in AfricaImpact of Climate change on Water Resources in Africa

Even in the absence of climate change, present population trends and water use demand show that most African countries will exceed present availability before 2025.

• Under call modeled climate change scenarios, it is projected that between 75-250 million and 350-600 million persons in Africa will face water scarcity by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.

• By 2055, between approximately 95 and 140 million people are expected to experience water scarcity in Northern Africa, while the figures vary between 58 and 120 million in Southern Africa.

• The models suggest a reduction in water stress for persons in East and West Africa by 2055, but this marginal increase in water availability will be insufficient to offset the increased scarcity in the north and south.

• Egypt, where present water demand exceeds availability, will face serious water stress with a projected reduction in precipitation and a forecast population of between 115 and 179 million persons by 2050.

Impact of Climate change on Water Resources in AsiaImpact of Climate change on Water Resources in Asia

• Under a full range of modeled climate scenarios, it is estimated that between 120 million and 1.2 billion persons will face water scarcity in South and South-east Asia by the 2020s.

• In Lebanon, annual net usable water resources will decline by 15% with a projected temperature rise of 1.20 C, under 2 X CO2 conditions.

• In north China, irrigation from surface and groundwater are projected to satisfy only 70% of water requirements for agricultural production.

• Water quality will become increasingly impaired in most of Asia, as aquifers become more saline with rising sea levels, especially in areas demand is already at or near its maximum.

• Gross per capita water availability in India is projected to decline from about 1,820 m3 per year in 2001, to as low as 1, 140 m3 per year by 2050. At current rates of demand and taking climate change into consideration, India could become acutely water stressed before 2025, with availability falling below 1000 m3 per capita.

Impact of Climate change on Water Resources in Latin AmericaImpact of Climate change on Water Resources in Latin America

According to a study by the Inter-American Development Bank in 2004, there are almost 71.5 million persons (14 % of the population) in Latin America without access to safe water, with most living in rural areas.

• Climate models project that between 12-81million people are expected to experience increased water stress in the 2020s, with the figures reaching 79-178 million by the 2050s.

• Water shortages for potable, irrigation and hydro-electric power generation will be especially severe in eastern Central America; the Plains, Motagua valley and Pacific slopes of Guatemala; eastern and western regions of El Salvador; central valley and Pacific region of Costa Rica; northern, central and western intermontane regions of Honduras; Azuero Peninsula in Panama.

• Salinity intrusion would also result in deterioration of available water in many coastal areas, but is expected to be especially severe in Chile, with a long coastline that is highly vulnerable to sea level rise.

• At current rates of glacier melt, severe water problems are likely to be experienced in Colombia by 2015-2025, and 60% of the Peruvian population would become water stressed during the same period.

Impact of Climate change on Water Resources in the Small Island Impact of Climate change on Water Resources in the Small Island StatesStates

Freshwater scarcity is already a major constraint to socio-economic development in most of the world’s small island states, and the situation will deteriorate further with climate change.

• Climate model projections indicate that a 10% decline in average annual rainfall by 2050 would result in a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa atoll, Kiribati. In addition, a World bank study (2000) showed that a 50 cm rise in sea level accompanied by a rainfall reduction of 25% would cause the freshwater lens to contract by 65%.

• In the Caribbean, it has been shown that under all modeled climate scenarios, some islands would experience severe water stress before the 2020s, and most would face water shortages by the 2050s.

• In some island countries (e.g. Kiribati and Comoros) less than 50 % of the population have access to potable water. With a projected increase in droughts and a lack of adequate storage facilities to derive benefit from heavy rainfall events, access to water resources will worsen in the future as demand increases.

Global Concern: Availability of Potable WaterGlobal Concern: Availability of Potable Water

Haiti• Lack of clean water is a severe

challenge in Haiti. According to Government statistics, 60% of the country’s 8 million people do not have access to safe drinking water.

• According to data from the ‘Nutrition Program of Haiti’, diarrhoea is the leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age. The main reason for the high incidence of diarrhoea is lack of clean water.

• According to Government statistics, the child mortality rate is about 110 per 1,000 (>13 times the U.S. rate), and more than 10 percent of infant deaths are attributed to dehydration related to potable water scarcity.

37Sub-Saharan Africa

30South Asia

57Latin America & Caribbean

29East Asia & Pacific

% with Access

To safe water

Region

Global Concern: MalnutritionGlobal Concern: Malnutrition

“Malnutrition is largely a silent and invisible emergency, exacting a terrible toll on children and their families. The result of multiple causes, including a lack of food, common and preventable infections, inadequate care and unsafe water, it plays a role in more than half of the nearly 12 million deaths each year of children under five in developing countries, a proportion unmatched since the Black Death ravaged Europe in the 14th century. Malnutrition blunts intellects and saps theproductivity and potential of entire societies. Poverty, one of the causes of malnutrition, is also a consequence, a tragic bequest by malnourished parents to the next generation”.

Carol Bellamy, Former Executive Director, UNICEF

Global Concern: MalnutritionGlobal Concern: Malnutrition• Malnutrition among children and adults is a global concern. According to

the World Food Programme, the populations of Bangladesh, Cambodia, Colombia, Sri Lanka and many others face acute and chronic malnutrition rates ranging from 19% to a staggering 48%. They also suffer from high infant-mortality rates.

• Malnutrition is responsible for approximately 56% of all child deaths in developing countries.

• Almost 70% of children under 5 years of age suffering from protein-energy malnutrition live in Asia; > 20% in Africa; 4% in Latin America and the Caribbean.

• Overall, nearly one-third of children in developing countries are underweight or stunted, according to the World Bank. And 30 percent of the world's population suffers from micronutrient deficiencies.

Underweight Children: On average, approximately 30% of all childUnderweight Children: On average, approximately 30% of all children in low and ren in low and middle income countries are underweightmiddle income countries are underweight

(Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007) (Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007)

Highest Percentage of Underweight Children (<5 yr)Highest Percentage of Underweight Children (<5 yr)(Source: UNDP 2004 World Development Report)(Source: UNDP 2004 World Development Report)

32Mauritania40Niger

33Viet Nam43Timor-Leste

33Madagascar44Eritrea

33Mali45Cambodia

34Burkina Faso45Burundi

35Papua New Guinea

46Yemen

35Myanmar47Ethiopia

36Nigeria47India

38Pakistan48Nepal

40Lao P. Dem Rep.48Bangladesh

% Children Underweight

Country% Children Underweight

Country

Africa Africa –– (i) Areas with livestock(i) Areas with livestock--only systems (LGA) in arid and semionly systems (LGA) in arid and semi--arid areas arid areas (ii) Rain(ii) Rain--fed mixed crop livestock systems (MRA) in semifed mixed crop livestock systems (MRA) in semi--arid areas projected to arid areas projected to

undergo > 20% reduction in length of growing season to 2050 undergo > 20% reduction in length of growing season to 2050 (Thornton et al, 2006)(Thornton et al, 2006)

How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in Malnutrition in How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in Malnutrition in Latin Latin America?America?

Outputs from models based on various climate scenarios, suggest the following impacts on agriculture in Latin America:

• With 2 X CO2 Guyana would experience 3% reduction in rice yields between 2020-2040; 16 % reduction with 3 X CO2 between 2080-2100. Under the same scenarios, sugar cane yields would decline by between 30 and 38%.

• Rice yields would fall in Costa Rica by 31% with a 15% reduction in precipitation and 20 C temperature rise (1 X CO2)

• In Guatemala, rice yields are projected to fall by 16% (+1.50 C temperature increase & 5% reduction in precipitation)

• Soybean yields would fall in Bolivia by between -3 and -20% (1 X CO2),BUT would increase by >12% with 2 X CO2

How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in Malnutrition in How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in Malnutrition in Latin America?Latin America?

• In Argentina (Pampas) soybean yields increase by >30% (2-3 X CO2)

• Wheat and maize yields would fall in Brazil by 30% and 15% respectively, BUT soybean yield could increase by 21% (2-3 X CO2)

• In Central Argentina, maize yields would increase by >20% under 2 X CO2 conditions, but could decline by between 13% and 35% if CO2 levels were to cause temperature increases of between 1.50 and 3.50 C.

• For Latin America as a whole, average maize yields would decline by approximately 10%.

• Cattle and dairy productivity is projected to decline under most scenarios

How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in Malnutrition in How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in Malnutrition in Africa?Africa?

It is projected that agriculture and food security in practically all regions of the continent will be adversely affected, although some areas will be suffer more severely than others.

• The Sahara area is likely to be most vulnerable, with agricultural losses as high as 7% of GDP. Western and Central Africa are projected to experience losses equivalent to at least 4% GDP. Northern and Southern Africa are expected to be least affected, with agricultural losses up to 1.3% of GDP.

• By 2020, reduction in yields and crop growth from rain-fed agriculture could be as high as 50% in some countries.

• In Egypt, climate change is projected to cause a reduction in rice and soybean yields of 11% and 28% respectively, by 2050.

• Climate models suggest that warming of about 2.50 C would cause a decline in the income of large livestock farms by 22% (US$ 123 billion).

• If the climate were to warm by 2.50 C, income from livestock farming would be reduced by 35% (US$ 20 billion).

How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in Malnutrition in How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in Malnutrition in Africa?Africa?

• By the 2080s, climate change could cause the area of arid and semi-arid land to increase by 60-90 million hectares. Consequently, agricultural potential on the Continent would further decline.

• At current rates of radiative forcing from global greenhouse gas emissions, models project that wheat production would disappear by 2080.

• At present global and regional rates of warming, fisheries in Northwest Africa and East African lakes will be negatively impacted, e.g:◘ In coastal areas with large lagoons and lakes, changes in

freshwater flows and intrusion of salt water would lead to migration of species that are form the basis of inland fisheries and aquaculture.

◘ Changes in the ecology of estuaries and upwelling, and the bleaching of coral reefs would cause an inevitable decline in the fisheries that are dependent on these habitats.

• Model simulations have shown that under 2 X CO2 conditions, overall fisheries productivity could decline by between 50-60%, and present spawning grounds would decline by at least 10%.

How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in How Would Climate Change Lead to An Increase in Malnutrition in Asia?Malnutrition in Asia?

While some crops may benefit initially from increased carbon fertilization and increases in precipitation in a few regions, the overall regional analysis shows that there will be a significant decline in food production as a result of climate change.

• East and South-east Asia are the only areas that are projected to experience increased yields in some crops (mainly cereals) – up to 20%.

• In contrast, crop yield declines of up to 30% are expected in Central and South Asia under 2 X CO2 conditions. In Bangladesh, production of rice and wheat are projected to fall by 8% and 32% respectively, by 2050.

• Under 2 X CO2 conditions, rice yields could decline by up to 40% in central and southern Japan by 2050, even in irrigated lowlands.

• By mid-Century, grain and fodder production are expected to decline by 26% and 9%, respectively.

• The Asia-Pacific region is the world’s largest producer of fish. Modeling studies show large scale negative changes in skipjack tuna in the region of Asia. Migration routes of the locally important species (e.g. ribbon fish; large yellow croakers) would be adversely affected, especially in China.

How Would Climate Change lead to an increase in How Would Climate Change lead to an increase in Malnutrition in Asia?Malnutrition in Asia?

• A rise in winter temperature of 0.50 C would reduce wheat yields in India by at least 0.45 tonnes per hectare. A temperature increase of 0.50-1.50 C would produce a 2-5% decrease in maize production.

• A rise in mean air temperature of 2.00 C would result in a 5-12% reduction in rain-fed rice yield in China.

• Net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decrease by at least 4-10% even under the most conservative climate change scenarios.

• In East Asia, an increase in surface air temperature of 1.00 C – expected to occur by the 2020s – water demand for crop irrigation will at least 6-10%. Presently, >28 million hectares of cropland require substantial irrigation.

• Studies show that across most of the Asian continent, increased heat and water stress would lead to reduced milk production in animals, and increase their susceptibility to disease.

How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in How Would Climate Change Lead to An increase in Malnutrition in The Small Island States?Malnutrition in The Small Island States?

The world’s small islands depended heavily on subsistence and cash crops, and fishing for their nutrition. Climate change will substantially reduce the capacity of islands to provide food.

• On most islands, crop agriculture would suffer severely from factors including salinity intrusion (sea level rise), water stress (extended droughts) and increased soil-moisture loss (higher evaporation rates).

• In a study of the Pacific by the World Bank (2000), it was shown that under various climate scenarios, the agriculture sector in:

◘ High islands such as Fiji could record annual losses of between US$ 23-52 million by 2050 as a result of climate change.

◘ Low islands such as Tarawa (Kiribati) would face annual losses of US$ 8-16 million (=17-18% of Kiribati’s GDP in 1998).


• Sensitivity studies conducted by Singh (1994) projected that in a 2 X CO2 world, an extension of the dry season by an additional 45 days in tropical islands, would cause a decrease in yield for the following crops:

Maize – 30-50 %Sugar cane – 10-35 %Taro (eddo) -35-75 %

• The same crop modeling exercise suggested that with in a scenario of increased wet season rainfall (50 % + above average) the following would be likely:

Taro (eddo) – increased yields by 5-15 %Rice – decreased yields by 10-20 %Maize – decreased yields by between 30- 75%


Research on Projected Impact of Global Warming on Sugar Cane

Trinidad and Tobago

• Singh and El Maayr (1998), combining FAO crop model with Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis GCM (CCC 11), projected a reduction in sugar cane yields by between 20-40 %, under 2 X CO2.

Mauritius

• Cheeroo-Nayamuth, B.F. and A.R. Nayamuth (1999), based on outputs from Australia Agricultural Production Systems Simulator Model, projected a decline in sucrose content by > 50%, under 2 X CO2.


• Observed changes in climate events have already caused shifts in the availability of certain fish stocks in many islands:

◘ In the Pacific islands, studies have shown that the effects of climate change on fisheries will have major socio-economic consequences, including a decline in local nutrition, through:► Decline in total stocks► Migration of fish stocks eastward► In both cases (whether stock decline or migration), there will be

significant changes in the catch of different countries.

◘ In the Maldives, the catch of skipjack tuna decreases during El Niño years, whereas in La Niña years skipjack catches increase but other tuna species decrease. El Niño events have become noticeably more frequent and intense since the 1950s.

Global Challenge: Sanitation and HealthGlobal Challenge: Sanitation and Health

• According to the WHO, the availability of safe water, adequate nutrition, sanitation and health are strongly correlated. Based on observed and projected changes in climate, there is likely to be significant deterioration in all four indicators for many decades.

• In 4 global assessments and 1 regional study conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it has been consistently demonstrated that the water resources, food and human health sectors are among the most sensitive to changes in climate.

• The IPCC has also emphasized that while climate change will affect the sanitation, nutrition and health status of all communities, some groups, particularly the poor, elderly and children will be the most vulnerable.

• Almost 100 million children currently lack access to adequate water, sanitation and health care, and millions more have only limited or inadequate access. These numbers are projected to increase significantly well into the next Century, unless there is a global commitment to stabilize the climate system by substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Access to Adequate Sanitation by Children (< 25 % Access)Access to Adequate Sanitation by Children (< 25 % Access)

24 Zambia3Madagascar

21Mozambique21China

21Viet Nam11Somalia

22Sudan18Burkina Faso

22Papua New Guinea

9Congo

6Lesotho10Ethiopia

16Angola24Haiti

20Nepal18Uzbekistan

20Guinea-Bissau15Niger

29Benin20Benin

% AccessCountry% Access Country

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in Africa?How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in Africa?

• As in most other locations, climate change will exacerbate sanitation and hygiene levels and standards, and human health indices in Africa, especially among the very poor, elderly and children.

• The most vulnerable countries would be those that are already drought-prone and water-stressed, and where climate-sensitive diseases are already endemic.

• Conditions will also become more favourable to the spread of vector and some non-vector borne diseases with altered moisture and temperature condition. Expansion of malaria and other diseases is therefore projected for to the northern and southern areas of the continent, where there is now little or no prevalence.

• On the positive side, models suggest that by 2050 continuing into 2080s, reduced transmission in a large part of the western Sahel, and much of southern Central Africa is likely.

• Changes in the frequency and intensity of drought are projected to compromise crop yields and general food production, with millions more persons faced with under-nutrition and malnutrition than at present.

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in Asia?Asia?

• Water-borne and diseases (e.g. cholera) and diarrhoeal diseases are projected to become more widespread owing to reduced water quantity and quality. The risk of drinking water contamination by Giardia, Salmonellaand Cryptosporidium will increase, as climate change creates more favourable habitats for these organisms to spread.

• Morbidity and mortality from malnutrition and diarrhoea are highest in South-east Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar and Nepal), and relative risks for these conditions will continue to increase beyond 2030.

• Modeling studies in India and China indicate that excess mortality due to heat stress would be very high, while the estimated risk of dengue transmission > 50%.

• Rising air temperatures combined with the existing poor air quality in China and Indonesia, would significantly increase the risk of heat stress and smog-induced cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in the region.

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in Asia?Asia?

• In the Russian Federation, natural habitats for vector-borne diseases are expanding, and increases in tick-borne encephalitis and malaria have been recorded.

• With higher temperatures, health impacts from air pollution caused by an increasing number of forest fires have become more frequent and widespread across Asia, including Siberia.

• Warmer sea surface temperatures along the coastlines of South and South-east Asia have caused a higher incidence of algal blooms – excellent habitats for the spread of diseases such as cholera.

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in Latin America?Latin America?

• Diarrhoea related illnesses, especially in young children, are projected to increase as a result of reduced access to adequate supplies of clean water and adequate nutrition, both of which are climate-sensitive.

• Malaria already poses a serious health risk in Latin America, where 262 million people (31% of the population) are at risk. According to the World Health Organization, the potential transmission risk ranges from 9% in Argentina to 100% in El Salvador. Climate change will exacerbate the risk.

• With a warmer climate and changing humidity conditions, dengue will pose severe health risks in locations now only at low risk, e.g. at higher elevations in Mexico, Brazil, Peru and Ecuador. Documented evidence shows that many parts of the higher elevations, previously too cool to support the breeding and spread of the mosquito vector, have already become favourable habitats.

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in The Small Island States?The Small Island States?

• Many small islands currently suffer from a variety of climate sensitive diseases, especially vector-, food- and water-borne diseases. These conditions are often compounded by water scarcity and related consequences such as reduced nutrition, poor hygiene and sanitation.

• According to a WHO study (2003), the Caribbean is highly vulnerable to:

◘ Insect- and rodent-borne diseases: dengue, malaria, yellow fever and leptospirosis

◘ Water-borne diseases: schistosomiasis, cryptosporidium and cholera

◘ Food-borne diseases: diarrhoeal illnesses, food poisoning, salmonellaand typhoid

◘ Respiratory diseases: asthma, bronchitis, and respiratory allergies and infections

◘ Malnutrition resulting from disruption of food production or distribution.

How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in How Would Climate Change Impact Sanitation & Health in The Small Island States?The Small Island States?

• The In the Pacific, island communities are becoming have become increasingly concerned about water availability, as it poses a severe threat to health and well-being. Water scarcity adversely affects food production, hygiene and sanitation

• Islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are also highly vulnerable to the same climate-related vector, food and water-borne diseases that occur in the Caribbean

• The World Bank (2000) has shown that outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases are becoming more frequent and ‘costly’ in Pacific island countries. A dengue fever outbreak coinciding with the 1997/1998 El Niño (strongest on record):

◘ Afflicted 24,000 persons in Fiji alone, and caused 13 deaths. The epidemic cost the country between US$ 3-6 million. Neighbouring islands were also affected

◘ Ciguatera fish poisoning is common in marine waters, especially reefal waters, where pollution is a problem. The outbreaks are correlated with the occurrence of El Niño events, which have become more frequent with warming.

Safety Concerns: ClimateSafety Concerns: Climate––Related HazardsRelated HazardsThe IPCC has demonstrated in all assessments so far that human safety and well-being will worsen as a direct consequence of climate change. This would be largely attributable to changes in the character of “climate-related hazards” or “extreme climate events”, including floods, droughts, storms, heatwaves and heavy precipitation occurrences.

• Model estimates of people at risk from flooding due to sea level rise show much variation according to vulnerability of the location and rate of rise. Overall, the IPCC projects that the number of additional flood victims will rise significantly, relative to present:◘ By the 2020s → 10-24 million more will be at risk◘ By the 2050s → up to26 million more persons would be affected◘ By the 2080s → up to 19 million additional people would be

vulnerable.

• In the absence of considerable upgrade to existing coastal defenses or installation of new ones at high cost, there would be >100 million flood victims per year, if sea level rise more than 40 centimetres (1.25 ft)

Flood Risk From Sea Level Rise Flood Risk From Sea Level Rise –– Latin AmericaLatin America

Permanent flooding of 4,900 km2 of low-lying coast; 29% homes highly vulnerable; 1.4 million persons at severe risk.

SLR 1.0 mColombia

327,000 evacuees yearly; additional 200,00 at risk.

SLR 0.5-1.0 m Ecuador, Guayas River system and Guayaquil City

60-90% of urban population would be at risk from flooding.

SLR 0.3-1.0 mCosta Rica, Punta Arenas Coast

90% pop. lives on coastal strip, which would retreat by 2.5 km.

SLR 100cm projected by General Circulation Models

Guyana

Land loss 10-28% of total area (141-400 km2)

SLR 38-104 cm El Salvador

ImpactsClimate Scenario/SLRCountry/Region

Safety Concerns: ClimateSafety Concerns: Climate––Related HazardsRelated Hazards• Landslides and mudslides, which are responsible for thousands of deaths in

Asia and Latin America annually, are caused by intense, persistent precipitation events and rainstorms. Landslides are projected to become more frequent in the future, and the results will be catastrophic as population increases, and more people settle in vulnerable areas.

• Given the observed and projected increase in tropical cyclone intensity, more deaths, injuries and socio-economic dislocation are inevitable. For example:¤ In 1990, Niue, a small Pacific island, was converted from a food-

exporting country to one dependent on imports for the next two years, after the passage of Tropical Cyclone Ofa. In 2004, Tropical Cyclone Heta caused even greater damage to agriculture.

¤ Hurricane Ivan had an equally devastating effect on Grenada’s agriculture in 2004. Losses in agricultural sector = 10% GDP. The two main crops, nutmeg and cocoa, which have long gestation periods, will not contribute to GDP or earn foreign exchange for the next 10 years

Safety Concerns: ClimateSafety Concerns: Climate––Related HazardsRelated Hazards

• Globally, millions of persons and critical infrastructure on which they depend, are located at or near the coast. Coastal areas are being developed more rapidly than any other locations on all continents. Consequently, with projected changes in the intensity and frequency of coastal, climate-related hazards, considerable human suffering, much of which will involve children, will occur.

• Flood risk modeling (HADCM2, HADCM3, UKMO, 1999) suggests that by 2080, numbers facing severe floods in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Ocean regions would be 200 times higher than if there were no SLR.

4Recent studies in Cuba (Perez et al. 1999, based on HADCM2), identified 98 coastal settlements with a total population exceeding 50 000 persons, which would be completely inundated by a 1.0 m rise in sea-level.

• As a result of sea level rise, the population exposed to drowning from coastal flooding and storm surge will increase by several orders of magnitude in the present Century. Asia has the highest exposure,particularly in Bangladesh, China, Japan, Viet Nam and Thailand.

A Barbados ScenarioA Barbados Scenario

Assumptions:1. 1:50 year event, i.e. a

category 3 hurricane.

2. Passage coincides with high tide and centre passes directly over island.

3. SLR of 40.0 mm relative to 1992 MSL.

Result?Initial projection showed that under the above scenario, uprush from a 2- metre wave would travel at least 80-100 m further inland than at present.

1:50

ClimateClimate--Related Hazards: Grenada and Hurricane IvanRelated Hazards: Grenada and Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan struck Grenada on 7 September 2004 with sustained winds reaching 140 mph, with gusts exceeding 160 mph. There were 28 deaths. In addition:

• 90% of houses damaged; approximately 40% of homeless were children

• 90% of hotel rooms were damaged or destroyed = approx.29% GDP

• All 78 primary and secondary schools were badly damaged, displacing 30,000 schoolchildren of all age groups

• Losses in agricultural sector = 10% GDP. The two main crops, nutmeg and cocoa, which have long gestation periods, will not contribute to GDP or earn foreign exchange for the next 10 years

• prior to Hurricane Ivan, Grenada was on course to experience aneconomic growth rate of approximately 5.7% per annum through 2007, but negative growth of around −1.4% per annum is now forecast for the next several years.

• Source: OECS (2004).

ClimateClimate--Related Hazards: Grenada and Hurricane IvanRelated Hazards: Grenada and Hurricane Ivan

• Apart from severe damage to the main hospital and other health care facilities, The island-wide disruption to electricity and water services also had unforeseen medical effects on children as well as adults :

"People had no medication because their homes were destroyed, diabetics had no insulin because it had to be refrigerated, we had a lot of gastro-intestinal diseases and we had a higher incidence of strokes and heart attacks. Hurricane Ivan also resulted in increased depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorders”.

Dr D. Noel, Senior Medical Registrar, Grenada General Hospital

ClimateClimate--Related Hazards: The Impact of Hurricane KatrinaRelated Hazards: The Impact of Hurricane KatrinaSource: Dept. of Child Development & Family Studies, Purdue UnivSource: Dept. of Child Development & Family Studies, Purdue University ersity

• Hurricane Katrina impacted children in many adverse ways both direct and indirect:► Children in the path of the hurricane: The impact was very direct and

traumatic for this group. Many died, suffered heat-related illnesses, diseases and injury and witnessed much death and violence. Many lost homes, family members, friends and the infrastructure that supported their daily lives. They were also separated from neighbourhoods and schools.

• ► Displaced children and families: Some children became refugees in their own state or country. Although this group may have escaped the worst of the trauma, they still had to deal with serious dislocation to their lives, including a familiar daily routine and location. Many could not attend school or were forced to attend a new school—an event for which they had no preparation.

► Children concerned about family or friends in the area of the storm: Children with friends and family working in the region of the hurricane became concerned about their welfare. The media images of chaos and pain make them worry whether friends and family are safe and secure.

► Children watching from a distance: Some children in areas unaffected by Katrina experienced much stress and agony, as the media constantly and graphically brought the tragic events to their consciousness.

Facts on Global Greenhouse Gas EmissionsFacts on Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• World’s industrial powers (OECD) account for 20% world’s population, but are responsible for >50 % of global emissions.

• Developing countries emit < 25 % of total GHG emissions.

• Small Island States emit < 1% of global emissions.

(IPCC Data Distribution Centre)

2.072.071.68Developing

11.311.212.1Developed

200019951990Per capita GHG emissions -Tonnes CO2(E) per person

What is An Appropriate Context for Global Solution ?What is An Appropriate Context for Global Solution ?

• Must be based on considerations of equity. The major polluters must take the lead role in reducing emissions (“The polluter pays” principle).

• The special circumstances of the most vulnerable countries, communities and groups (e.g. the poor, elderly, children, those with low adaptive capacity) should be regarded as priorities. States that have contributed little to the problem should not have to “pay” to find a solution to a problem which they did not create.

“The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof”(UNFCCC, Article 3, ‘Principles’).

What Guiding Principles Should A Solution Embrace ?What Guiding Principles Should A Solution Embrace ?

• Ultimate solution to threat of GCC and SLR must be global. No single country can bring about desired level of reduction in GHGs to achieve UNFCCC objective:

“..stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.

“Such a level (of GHG reduction) should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to…”:

I. Allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to GCC.II. Ensure that food production is not threatened.II. Enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable

manner.”(UNFCCC, Article 2)

Required Reduction In Key GHGs (Relative to 1990 Required Reduction In Key GHGs (Relative to 1990 Levels) To Achieve UNFCCC ObjectiveLevels) To Achieve UNFCCC Objective

GHG Reduction (%)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) >60Methane (CH4) 15-20CFC-11 70-75CFC-12 75-85Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 70-80

How Easily Reversible are the Present Trends?How Easily Reversible are the Present Trends?

• Global GHG emissions continue to increase unabated.

• Annex 1 States are showing no urgency in implementing provisions of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e. 5 % reduction relative to 1990 levels by 2012).

• Even if Protocol were to be faithfully implemented, the reduction in global emissions would be minimal at best.

• Even if emissions were to be stabilized to 1990 levels, there is already a ‘commitment’ to climate change, on account of the large volume of greenhouse gases already emitted into the atmosphere. For example:

¤ Atmospheric temperatures would continue to rise for several decades; and

¤ Global sea levels would continue to rise by a factor of 5 for at least the next 100 years.

Should We Anticipate Any Meaningful Emissions Should We Anticipate Any Meaningful Emissions Reduction In the Future ?Reduction In the Future ?

Years by parties for CO2 for NATIONAL TOTAL (in Gigagrams) 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Australia 277,869 285,525 310,855 344,147 358,45Belgium 118,326 119,776 129,605 123,804 126,58Canada 471,237 473,882 513,189 549,943 575,86Denmark 52,661 59,910 74,529 57,437 54,164France 396,126 392,731 408,676 411,166 406,044Germany 1,015,572 920,187 923,792 857,281 864,11Japan 1,122,277 1,138,719 1,234,759 1,228,371 1,247,61New Zealand 25,254 26,962 28,020 30,421 33,77Portugal 44,130 48,546 50,564 64,433 67,464Spain 224,751 230,166 240,649 295,260 325,44United Kingdom 584,029 559,365 567,441 537,601 537,38United States of America 5,002,325 5,175,352 5,498,549 5,676,290 5,782,36Total 9,334,558 9,431,120 9,980,629 10,176,155 10,379,26

Adaptation ApproachesAdaptation Approaches

• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. Responses include:

¤ Purely technical (e.g. infrastructure defenses against sea level rise, improve water use efficiency, demand management e.g. through metering and pricing)

¤ Behavioral - altered lifestyle practices (e.g. solar water heating as opposed to electric/gas heaters; “car pooling’; use of fuel-efficient vehicles, etc.)

¤ Managerial (e.g. altered farm practices; drought-tolerant cultivars)

¤ Policy (e.g. planning regulations, building codes)

Guiding Principles That The Consultative Group May Wish To ConsiGuiding Principles That The Consultative Group May Wish To Considerder

¤ Climate change is already occurring, and its impacts will become even more evident in the future.

¤ Climate change can no longer be regarded simply as an “environmental problem”. It is a human development issue that threatens to undermine the global socio-economic system.

¤ Children on all continents and in all nations, regions, communities and groups will be affected, but some will be worse off than others.

¤ The changes we are witnessing are largely human-induced, and we can do something about them.

¤ Climate change is a global challenge that cannot be tackled successfully unless there is a commitment by all nations to participate in a manner that is consistent with their contribution to the problem.

What Role Can the Consultative Group Play?What Role Can the Consultative Group Play?

• Advocacy – for reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions (the primary source of the problem). Become an active part of the global lobby by supporting the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), national and international groups.

• Education - Can the CG play a meaningful role in helping to educate its constituents about climate change, focusing on the impacts on children? If so, what specific actions can you take? Which organizations and groups would be the key ones with which to collaborate? Can existing plans and initiatives be re-programmed to reflect this new focus?

• Would the CG be willing to help sponsor a recommendation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that it should Prepare a Special Report on the impact on climate change on ‘vulnerable groups’, that would specifically include children?

• Should the CG consider applying for observer status in the UNFCCC and IPCC? This would permit attendance at plenary meetings of the world’s leading policy and scientific bodies dealing with climate change.

Thank You

Questions? Comments?

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