climate forecasting unit melanie davis, francisco doblas-reyes, nube gonzalez-reviriego, verónica...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Forecasting Unit
Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes,Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba Fernandez
EUPORIAS General Assembly, Toulouse, 21st October 2014
RESILIENCE PROTOTYPEStrengthening the European Energy
Network with Climate Services
Climate Forecasting Unit
If I could tell you the
average wind power generation
for the next one to three months,
could you improve your business operations?
Climate Forecasting Unit
1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)
Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.
Climate Forecasting Unit
1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)
Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.
2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, www.edp.com)
Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions.
Climate Forecasting Unit
1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)
Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.
2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, www.edp.com)
Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions.
3) Wind farm financer (e.g. Iberdrola, www.iberdrola.com)
Decision: how to optimise the return on investments, based on a foreseen wind power capacity of an individual wind farm.
INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION
0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1
RESILIENCE service
Target
In Europe In USA / Tropics
Current service
CLIMATOLOGY/PROJECTIONS
PREDICTIONS
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate Forecasting Unit
1) SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION: IC3 (Verónica Torralba)
2) END-USER GUIDANCE: various inputs (EDF, Marex Spectron, Vortex, Endesa, E.ON)
3) INTERFACE DESIGN CONTRIBUTION: External visualisor
4) ENERGY FORECAST FORUM ORGANISATION
If I could tell you the
average wind power generation
for the next one to three months,
could you improve your business operations?
Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Applications
Anticipate market changes:
Identify vulnerabilities and risks
Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action
Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Benefits
Anticipate market changes:
Ability to make decisions earlier
Avoid subjective decision making
Take calculated precautionary action
Potential cost saving
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate Forecasting Unit
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:
CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192)
EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)
SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)
THANK [email protected]