climate outlook – may 2010 el nino dissipates; neutral or la nina conditions expected by september
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Outlook – May 2010
El Nino Dissipates; Neutralor La Nina Conditions
Expected by September
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Stronger El Niño
StrongerLa Niña
El Nino
La Nina
now
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FMA 2010precip anom
FMA precipcomposEl Nino
wetdry
wetdry
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Verification: G: globe T: tropics
this (meanforcst 1997→)
rpss: G 0.019 (0.008)T 0.031 (0.015)
likelihood:G 0.009 (0.004)T 0.015 (0.008)
Heidke:G 0.077 (0.042)T 0.112 (0.068)
GROC: G 0.557 (0.539) T 0.577 (0.565)
FMA 2010preciptercilecateg
FMA 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Jan
Verification of Recent Season Precipitation Forecast
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Verification: G: globe T: tropics
this (meanforcst 1997→)
rpss: G 0.271 (0.114)T 0.473 (0.177)
likelihood:G 0.146 (0.054)T 0.291 (0.090)
Heidke:G 0.467 (0.301)T 0.727 (0.414)
GROC: G 0.717 (0.574) T 0.820 (0.626)
FMA 2010 temptercilecateg
FMA 2010 temp probabforecast frommid-Jan
Verification of Recent Season Temperature Forecast
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Southern Oscillation
o
.
.D
T
ENSO-related Sea Level Pressure Seesaw PatternSouthern Oscillation Index
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Last week’s SST anomaly|||||||||||
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OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S
ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP
*************
maximum influenceon climate
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Stronger La Niña
StrongerEl Niño
**** **** *******
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mid-Mar
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mid-Apr
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mid-May
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May2008
Zonal WindsReturn to Average El Nino Disspates to
ENSO-neutralBelow-Average Thermocline Depth Takes Over from West
May2009
May2010
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Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
mid-April 2010,
& mid-May2010
neutral ENSO
weak
+
=
MJO
Neutral(-) ENSO
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current
(SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)
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Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from Apr
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Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from May
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from April
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from May
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May 2010 SST forecasts(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)
MEAN
PLUS
MINUS
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New climate forecasts from May 20, 2010
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E North Pacific
JJAS
NTC 45% 35% 20%
ACE 40% 35% 25%
Tropical Cyclone ForecastsMay 2010
NTC = Number of Tropical CyclonesACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
West N Pacific JASO
NTC 25% 35% 40%
ACE 30% 40% 30%
North Atlantic
JJA
NTC 15% 35% **50%**
ACE 20% 35% **45%**
NoLocation Shift
belownormal
nearnormal
above normal
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Has the 2009/10 El Nino had health impacts?
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Spatial distribution of plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity
From Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)
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Distribution of Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
equator
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OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S
ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP
*************
maximum influenceon climate
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JFM 2010precip anom
JFM precipcomposEl Nino
wetdry
wetdry
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JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory
JFM 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Dec
wet obsnormal obs dry obs
dry season(no forecast)
can we expecthigher risk of malaria and/or dengue?
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JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory
wetnormaldry
Brunei: 77 cases in JFM: high rainfall, poor rubbish managementThailand (Phuket): 123 cases in 2010: above-average temperatureNorth Queensland (Tully): 4 cases, March: recent rains and high temperature, and migration from dengue-ridden Cairns to northVenezuela (central): 26,724 cases in 2010: abandonment of fumi- gation and env’tal cleanup by Ministry of Health; water storage
Notable dengue outbreaks during first 4 months of 2010
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This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive:
……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr