climate scenarios for the canadian energy sector roger street monirul mirza program on energy...
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CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THECANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR
Roger StreetMonirul Mirza
PROGRAM ON ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP JANUARY 22-24, 2003
MAJOR OBJECTIVES
To develop nationally consistent set of historical and future climate scenarios for the energy sector
To provide guidance to impact researchers/users
Revision of the energy sector chapter of the Canada Country Study
Major Deliverables
Statement of energy sector historical and future scenarios needs through a web workshop
Development of historical and future climate scenarios
Energy sector climate impact report Examination of the conclusions of
the Canada Country Study Energy Chapter
On-going guidance on the scenarios
Web-Workshop for Scenarios Needs assessment
A Web-Workshop organized during 11-14 December, 2001
Comprised of five sessions –four main sessions and the concluding session
60 stakeholders registered Government (75%), Industry (12%),Consultants (12%) and Academia (1%)
Session I: State of Art Techniques for Scenarios Construction
Principal Focus: Sources of the GCM data How scenarios are constructed from GCMs Downscaling techniques Uncertainties in GCM Scenarios Construction of Historical Scenarios Interpretation and Usefulness of Scenarios
Session I-Issues Raised
Access to Climate Scenarios Utility of Downscaling Techniques The Need for Multiple Scenarios Challenge of Incorporating
Extreme Weather Events into Scenarios
Temporal and Spatial scale Issues
Session II-Climate Change Scenarios
The Types of Scenarios Spatial and Temporal aspect of the
scenarios Experience of use of scenarios in
the Energy Sector
Session II-Issues Raised
Use of scenarios in risk management
Estimation of tolerable risk Cascading effect of uncertainties Use of current information for risk
management
Session III-Scenarios for the Energy Sector
Requirement of scenarios for the energy sector (fossil and renewable)
Session III-Issues Raised
Understanding adaptive capacities Non uniform scenarios requirement
for various stakeholders Use of Scarce modelling resources Supply of unnecessary information Engage key people in the industry
to identify their needs
Session IV-Vulnerabilities and Adaptation
Vulnerabilities to climate change Past adaptation measures
incorporated in the energy sector Effectiveness of the past
adaptation measures Future Adaptation measures and
strategies
Session IV-Issues Raised
Planning of the energy system to reduce vulnerability, damage and increase resiliency
Adaptability of the Canadian Energy Sector
Temporal and Spatial scale scenarios may not to attract stakeholders
Session V-Conclusions
Energy sector demonstrated interest in scenarios of extremes and return periods
Multiple scenarios are useful to capture uncertainties and tolerable risk
More interactions between modellers and stakeholders
Session V-Conclusions
Engagement of stakeholders is vital for identifying research requirements for scenarios, impacts and adaptation
Alternative method of engagement must be sought
Energy Sub-Sectors Temp. Precip. Lake Water
Level
Wind Waves
Energy Exploration (Offshore)
X X
Energy Generation (Hydro) X X X
Renewable (Wind) X
Renewable (Solar) X
Transmission (Electricity) X X
Energy Demand (Electricity) X
Energy Demand (Natural Gas)
X
Pipe Line X
Transport by Ship (Coal) X
Transportation of Crude Oil
Summary of Climate Scenario Requirements
Energy Sub-Sectors Snow & Ice Cover
Sea Ice
Storm Cloud Cover
Rel. Humidity
Sea Level Pressure
Energy Exploration (Offshore)
X
Energy Generation (Hydro)
X X
Renewable (Wind)
Renewable (Solar) X
Transmission (Electricity)
X X
Energy Demand (Electricity)
X
Energy Demand (Natural Gas)
Pipe Line
Transport by Ship (Coal)
Transportation of Crude Oil
X
Climate Impact Report-Approaches
Vulnerability and Adaptation Approach Review of the Canada Country Study
1998-Energy Chapter Identification of gaps in Knowledge
and approach Updated knowledge/information on
vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA)
A Framework of VIA for the Energy Sector
Climate Impact Report
Section I: Executive SummarySection II: IntroductionDraws information from-
-PERD proposal-Canada Country Study Energy
Chapter-IPCC TAR-Web Workshop Synthesis
Climate Impact Report
Section III: Historical & Future Climate Change
Historical Climate Variability Temperature, precipitation, wind
speed, relative humidity, sea level rise and lake water level
Climate Change Scenarios Extreme Events-Historical & Future
Climate Impact Report
Section IV: Canada Country Study-Identifying Gaps in VIA
Impacts on Fossil and Renewable Energy
Gaps in Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation
Climate Impact Report
Section V: Canadian Energy Sector-Climate Variability and Change and Adaptation
Three Case Studies on vulnerability and adaptation
Attributes of climate vulnerability Present barriers of adaptation and future
potentiality Vulnerability and adaptation framework
Development of Historical Scenarios Collection of Data from the
Meteorological Services, Canada The data include:
-Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, etc.
Development of a software STECA(Statistical Tool for Extreme Climate
Analyses)
Main Features of STECA A preprocessing facility for extraction
of extreme value series A large number of probability
distributions: Normal Gumbel Pearson Type 3 Weibull Log-Pearson Type 3 Log-normal
Main Features of STECA Two different parameter estimation
methods: Method of moments Method of L-moments (probability
weighted moments) Validation tests:
Mann-Kendall test Mann-Whitney U test Box Plot Randomness Test Serial Correlation
Main Features of STECA Two non-parametric goodness-of-fit
statistics: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Probability plot correlation coefficient
(PPCC) Climatic parameter computation
routines: Degree Days Heat Index Wind Chill Heat / Cold Wave
SAMPLE STECA Menus
SAMPLE STECA Menus
Historical Scenario Construction
Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) Collected
Data include:-Temperature-precipitation-wind speed-Relative Humidity
7848 Stations Data Extracted
Data Extraction for Analysis
466 stations extracted as class A station
WMO 3/5 rules were applied-Not more than 5 total and 3
consecutive missing days in a month
-For a total value, no missing values are allowed
Historical Climate Products
General statistics Extreme values Return periods of annual max. and
min Heating and cooling degree days Climate normals for 1951-1980
and 1961-1990
Historical Climate Products
Heat Index Windchill Frequency analysis of Heat Index
and Windchill Percentiles Heat wave and cold wave
SAMPLE OUTPUT FILESample Statistics calculated by Method of Product Moment
StationID Mean Std CV Skew Max Min Lat Long StationName
8100200 5.64 9.28 1.64 -0.44 25.3 -25.3 45.6 -64.95 ALMA
8100300 3.98 11.95 3 -0.39 28.6 -32.3 46.8 -67.72 AROOSTOOK
8100566 3.43 11.37 3.31 -0.31 26.7 -30.3 46.65 -67.58 BON ACCORD
8100590 5.38 10.86 2.02 -0.21 30 -26.3 46.52 -64.72 BUCTOUCHE
8100880 3.19 11.47 3.6 -0.28 27.2 -29.6 47.98 -66.33 CHARLO A
8101200 4.73 11.26 2.38 -0.32 28.3 -29.4 46.55 -66.15 DOAKTOWN
8101500 5.5 11.01 2 -0.33 28.1 -28.6 45.87 -66.53 FREDERICTON A
Station 5-Year 10-Year 20-year 25-year 50-Year 75-year 100-year
1016940 31.25 32.37 33.45 33.79 34.84 35.45 35.88
1017230 34.66 35.94 37.17 37.56 38.77 39.47 39.96
1018620 32.15 33.37 34.54 34.91 36.06 36.73 37.2
1018935 29.03 30.59 32.09 32.56 34.02 34.87 35.47
1021261 34.81 36.22 37.57 38 39.32 40.09 40.63
1021480 29.81 31.04 32.22 32.6 33.75 34.42 34.89
1021830 32.27 33.39 34.47 34.82 35.87 36.48 36.92
SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE-MAX TEMP-GUMBEL METHOD
Future Directions
Making Available Historical Climate Scenarios in the CCIS’ Website
Training Workshop Energy Sector Climate Impact Report Release of the STECA Software Heating and Cooling degree days Extremes