Climate Scientist Hansen’s 1981 Predictions Came True.What about 2016?

1981 2015 Paul H. Carr

AF Research Laboratory Emeritus

Climate Scientist James Hansen’s 1981 Predictions Came True.

What about his 2016 predictions?

1. 1981 Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon

Dioxide. (Science) 2. 2016 Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms… (Atmos. Phys. Chem) 3. Ocean acidification is threatening the bottom of our food chain. 4. Is green solar, wind, and nuclear technology advancing fast enough ?

February 14, 2017To our earth with love.

TEMPERATURES ON THE MOONNo greenhouse gas atmosphere

• Diurnal Variations:

Day 123 C (396 Kelvin)

Night -233 C (40 Kelvin)

Average -65 C (218 Kelvin)

ON EARTH• Greenhouse gases, blanketing the earth, give much

smaller variations.

• On cloudless nights, non-condensing, persistent, and increasing CO2, CH4, & other greenhouse gases keep us warmer than on the moon.

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 5

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.

1980 – 2017: CO2 increased 52 ppm.

Aerosols

7

Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing Schools must sometimes be closed. World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3

Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4009?utm_source=Physics+Today&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5229780_Physics+Today%3a+The+week+in+Physics+12-16+January&utm_content=$LINK_KEYWORD$&dm_i=1Y69,343BO,E1O2I6,B5VQT,1

Aerosols reflect sunlight back into space, cooling our panet

• 2015 Replaced ship sea surface temperature by more accurate buoy measurement.• Increased sensors in the Arctic, which is warming 2 – 3 times faster than the global

average. 10

“CO2 warming should emerge from the noise of natural variability (1981)” Hansen

This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University by Dr. Makiko Sato.Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen, Ruedy, Sato & Lo

2016 & 2015Warmest years On Record

“Physics

Today”

Jan 2009

Pg. 48.

11- yr sun-spot cycle.

No increase

in solar irradiance since 1979.

12

WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING

Atmosphere holds more water at higher temps. -Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow -Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires

13

Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deja-food-will-social-unrest-surge-corn-prices-soar

Social unrest accompanies food price increases.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/princeville-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-floods-black-history.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Linda Worsley outside her Princeville, NC home, which was demolished after being damaged in a flood from Hurricane Matthew (2016). Her town was also flooded out by Hurricane Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes used to occur every 100 years. The town may be abandoned.

T24 Aug 2005. Tropical Storm ApproachesSouthern Florida.

28 Aug 2005. Katrina, Category 5 Hurricane, gained energetic winds of 175 mph due to the record high temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico.

28 Aug 2005. Katrina, Category 5, 175 mph winds. Absorbed energy from the record high temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico.

29 Aug 2005. Katrina causes $100Bs damage to New Orleans, LA

KATRINA: Tropical Storm to Hurricane

A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made

North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO

17

The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of CO2 increase.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, due to thermal expansion (50%) & the melting of ice (50%)

Sea level rise rate has increased 4 times: 3.1 mm/year ( 1 ft/100 yr. ) now from 0.8 mm/year in 1900

18

Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.

• Miami is spending $400 to $500 million for pumps and sea walls, but the sea is seeping under its limestone foundations.

• Increasing sea levels are encroaching on fresh water supplies.

21

Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to

outpace North Antarctic gainsChristopher Harig, , Frederik J. Simons

Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

Earth and Planetary Science Letters.Volume 415, 1 April 2015, Pages 134–141

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15000564

22

NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western Antarctica.

Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, an author of the last IPCC report:“If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it woud raise sea levels 10 ft.”

23

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

2. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous

James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N. Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4

1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USACorrespondence to: James Hansen (jeh1@columbia.edu)Received: 11 June 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 July 2015 Revised: 17 February 2016 – Accepted: 18 February 2016 – Published: 22 March 2016

Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015Revised: 17 Feb 2016 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016

Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al.

1 M TIPPING LEVEL

5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

World Bank 2013 Forecast Average global flood losses will multiply from $6 billion per year in 2005 to $52 billion a year by 2050 with just social-economic factors, such as increasing population and property value, taken into account.

Add in the risks from sea-level rise and sinking land, and global flood damage for large coastal cities could cost $1 trillion a year if cities don’t take steps to adapt.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current.It warms the temperatures of the Arctic, northern Europe.

As the Arctic warms up and less freezing occurs, the AMOC will shut down. In the geological past, the result has been that the deep waters of the ocean warm up as much as 140C.

Paradoxically in the near term, the northern Europe and North American areas will cool down significantly

Climate Change is about our legacy.

Dr. James E. Hansenhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

Jim Hansen was “stoppered” during the Bush administration.(From http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

Photo Credit: Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

When Jim Hansen defended his research by quoting the above mission statement, the Bush Administration removed it. (This vugraph is from http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/)

Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate and nature’s ability to sequester carbon.

3. INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

Solomon H. Katz, Ph.D is a leading expert on the anthropology of food, U of Penn. He was editor-in-chief of the Encyclopedia of Food and Culture published by Scribner (2003). Prof Katz was Chair of the AAA Task Force on World Food Problems.

Barry Costa-Pierce, Ph.D, Chair of the Department of Marine Sciences, University of New England. Biddeford, Maine. Pioneer of the field of “Ecological Aquaculture” and helped develop the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s global protocols.

Can World Food Production Keep up with Population Growth in the Face of Climate Change & Sea Acidification?

THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US?

63nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age of Science, www.iras.org

June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH.

• Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms.

• How can global warming be a catalyst for spiritual and societal transformation? 

Solar PVs on historic Star Island form the largest off-grid array in New England

S Sunrise on Star Island

SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND Learn more at www.iras.org

Climate Scientist James Hansen’s 1981 Predictions Came True.

What about his 2016 predictions?1. 1981 Climate Impact of Increasing

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. (Science)

2. 2016 Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms… (Atmos. Phys. Chem) 3. Ocean acidification is threatening the bottom of our food chain. 4. Is green solar, wind, and nuclear technology advancing fast enough ?

China Aims to Spend at Least $360 Billion on Renewable Energy by 2020 By MICHAEL FORSYTHE NYTimes JAN. 5, 2017. Solar and wind manufacturing will create 13 million jobs. ------------------------- Regardless of what the government does, Bill Gates said he is moving forward to lead a more than $1 billion investment fund to support breakthrough technologies and companies with the potential to help bring global greenhouse gas emissions to "near zero." Gates outlined details of the Breakthrough Energy Ventures Fund, supported by 20 other business leaders like Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Virgin Group founder Richard Branson. The net worth of the investor group is at least $150 billion.

http://wwwhttp://wwwhttp://www1. PageLog - Toggle

Bill Gates is funding new clean energy, but it's not solar or windhttp://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission-plant-terrapower-2016-4

Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot plant will be built in China. The economics, safety, waste, and all the key parameters are dramatically improved.

The traveling wave reactor converts depleted uranium, a byproduct of the nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.

China plans to build 400 nuclear plants by midcentury. Bill Gates’ TerraPower, for instance, has designed a traveling wave reactor, which utilizes nuclear waste. Another design, by two MIT researchers, again uses waste, mixed into molten salt. In short, the nuclear reactors of the future will utilize not just regular uranium but will take care of the waste as well – the same waste that raises so much concern among environmentalists and the general public.

Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017By James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-Energy-Boom-In-2017.html

When I asked MIT Prof of Nuclear Science & Engineering, Ian Hutchison about this he replied, “The Republicans are less scared of nuclear energy than the Democrats.”

MIT is presently designing tethered off-shore nuclear reactors

How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael Shellenberger

Solar energy is only available 26% of the time and wind 33%.

Nuclear is 24/7.

We are decommissioning nuclear reactors faster than the increase in wind and solar.

To make up for this net decrease, we are increasing our burning of fossil fuels, raising carbon dioxide emissions, and warming our planet.

Source Total Investment:

60 Year Project

Annual Before-Tax

Revenue

Market Price to

Break Even at 15

Years

Life Span

before

Retooling

Comparative

ROI at 60 Years

($0.145/KWhr)

Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion

Land-based

wind +

batteries

$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion

Solar +

Batteries

$55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion

  

• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%. Renewables need to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.

• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a contract for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can be used as a comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at $2.5 million/MW.

Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear reactors, nuclear provides the largest return on investment (ROI) (Emery et al)

10/9/15

www.CitizensClimateLobby.org

- Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. (RNCFD)

-Dividend would be returned to everyone.

-Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.

‘A Conservative Climate Solution’: Republican Group Calls for Carbon Tax (FEE & DIVIDEND ?) By JOHN SCHWARTZ FEB. 7, 2017https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/science/a-conservative-climate-solution-republican-group-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

A group of Republican elder statesmen is calling for a tax on carbon emissions to fight climate change. The group, led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, with former Secretary of State George P. Shultz and Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former secretary of the Treasury, says that taxing carbon pollution produced by burning fossil fuels is “a conservative climate solution” based on free market principles.

Mr. Baker is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with White House officials, including Vice President Mike Pence, Jared Kushner, the senior adviser to the president, and Gary D. Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, as well as Ivanka Trump

Mr. Baker who is skeptical about human caused global warming said. “ I do accept that the risks are sufficiently great that we need to have an insurance policy.”

Tillerson Led Exxon’s Shift on Climate Change; Some Say ‘It Was All P.R.’By JOHN SCHWARTZ DEC. 28, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/28/business/energy-environment/rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-exxon.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Carbon taxes are a fee on fuel use, based on how much carbon dioxide that fuelputs into the atmosphere. “As a businessman, it is hard to speak favorably about anynew tax,” Mr. Tillerson told reporters in his speech at the Woodrow WilsonInternational Center for Scholars. But, he said, it was “a more direct, a moretransparent and a more effective approach” than an alternative gaining support in Congress known as cap and trade, which would set an upper limit on carbon dioxide emissions and then rely on a permit trading system to meet the target.

CONCLUSIONS1. SEA LEVELS RISE COULD RISE BY 1 METER IN 2050. WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TIME TO PREVENT A RISE TO 5 METERS (18 FT) IN 2058?

2. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING -Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow -Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires

3. CAN NEW SOLAR, WIND, AND NUCLEAR BE DEPLOYED FAST ENOUGH?

4. EXPEDITE PHASING-OUT FOSSIL FUEL BURNING WITH CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND 49

What a wonderful world this would be if only we gave it a chance. If all of us loved each other, we would solve lots more problems. LOVE, Baby LOVE!