Climate-Smart Conservation

for Wetland Managers

Dr. Bruce Stein Senior Director, Climate Adaptation & Resilience National Wildlife Federation Association of State Wetland Managers Webinar Series December 9, 2015

The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be

Unfortunately, the Future is Now!

Climate Impacts on Wetlands

• Sea-level rise • Altered precipitation

– increased drought – more intense storms and floods

• Melting permafrost • Species shifts and impacts • Human responses to climate

change – hardened infrastructure – water withdrawals

Responding to Climate Change

• Mitigation – Addresses causes of rapid climate change – Focus on reducing atmospheric carbon

concentrations

• Adaptation – Addresses impacts of climate change on

people and nature – Focus on preparing for and managing change

Dual—not dueling—approaches: Both are essential and complementary

Climate Adaptation • The process of adjustment to actual

or expected climate and its effects

– seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial

opportunities

In other words: • Prepare for … • Cope with … • Adjust to …

--- IPCC AR5 (2014)

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” --- Wayne Gretzky

What Constitutes Good Adaptation?

• Adaptation still an emerging field • Still poor understanding of what climate

adaptation means

• Most guidance still at very high level; little operational advice

• Danger of existing work simply being relabeled

• Strong interest in understanding what truly constitutes climate adaptation and how to put principles into practice

Design Principles for Guidance

• Demystify adaptation process – Break into manageable steps – Build off existing planning approaches

• Non-prescriptive – Focus on understanding principles and

general framework – Accommodate different techniques for

various steps

• Scalable – Works from site to landscape scales and

beyond

• Assumes existing best practices

VS

So What’s the Recipe?

Iron Chef Adaptation Edition

What’s in Your Basket?

Climate-Smart Conservation in a Nutshell

• Act with intentionality; link actions to climate impacts

• Manage for change, not just persistence

• Reconsider goals, not just strategies

• Integrate adaptation into existing work

1. Acting with Intentionality

• Link Actions to Climate Impacts – How will actions address key

vulnerabilities? – What is the logic model/scientific

rationale for actions?

• Show your work! – Transparency/traceability important – Whether novel approaches are

indicated – Or existing approaches and actions

validated

2. Manage for Change Not Just Persistence

• Stationarity is dead!

• Adaptation will largely be about preparing for and managing change

• Adaptation is a process, not an end point

Continuum of Change

• Conservation now is mostly focused on persistence, or restoration to historical conditions

• Adaptation will often be concerned with determining: – when to manage for persistence

– when to manage for change

– When (and how) to cycle between the two

Persistence Transformation

From Resistance to Realignment

• Resistance – Strategies that focus on resisting change and

maintaining status quo; persistence-oriented – May be appropriate for high-value assets or shorter

time periods

• Resilience – Current usage mostly focus on rebound to status quo

conditions – More broadly can refer to maintaining functionality in

face of change – As concept, in serious danger of overuse and dilution

• Realignment – Strategies for facilitating or managing inevitable shifts

to help achieve acceptable outcomes

3. Reconsider Conservation Goals Not Just Strategies

• Goals are the ends; strategies the means

– Too often a desire to jump straight to adjusting strategies

• Clarity of goals is important regardless of climate change

– But often are vague or ambiguous

• Many current goals will no longer be feasible

– Need for forward-looking rather than retrospective goals

Key deer, Big Pine Key Bill & Mary Burnham

•Traditional goals

•Revised

strategies*

Climate Retrofit

Aligning Goals and Strategies in Climate Adaptation

•Traditional goals

•Traditional

strategies

Business as Usual

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

•Revised goals*

•Revised

strategies*

Climate-Aligned

* Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments.

Components of Biodiversity

Goals can emphasize one or more components. What do you value most?

4. Integrate with Existing Work Not Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans

Key Characteristics of Climate-Smart Conservation

• Actions linked to climate impacts

• Forward looking goals • Broader landscape

context • Robust in an uncertain

future • Agile and informed

management

• Minimizes carbon footprint

• Climate influence on project success

• Safeguards people and nature

• Avoids maladaptation

Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle A Generalized Framework for Adaptation Planning and Implementation

Setting the Stage

Assess Vulnerability

and Risk

Reconsider Goals

Define purpose/

scope

Climate Smart Cycle Step 2

Assessing Vulnerability Understanding what’s at risk and why is key to designing effective adaptation strategies Components of vulnerability • Sensitivity • Exposure • Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive Capacity Example Sediment Available for Wetland Accretion

Removal of sediment load from river flow

Discharge of remaining sediment off continental shelf

Climate-Smart Cycle Step 3

Review/Refine Conservation Goals

• Need is to review and as appropriate modify or refine – Review may validate existing goals or

suggest changes are needed

Determine if modifications are needed in conservation goals or management objectives

Build on SMART principles, but reconsider…. What (conservation target)

Why (intended outcomes or desired condition) Where (relevant geographic scope) When (relevant timeframe)

Crafting Climate-Informed goals

Generating and Evaluating Strategies and Actions

Be creative! Be realistic!

Climate-Smart Cycle Step 4

Identifying Adaptation Options

• At this stage be creative! – Constraints come in next step

• Several ways to generate

options: – Components of vulnerability – General adaptation strategies – Intervention points

Need here is to Identify an array of possible adaptation options for reducing key vulnerabilities

Using Vulnerability as a Frame for Strategy Identification

• Reduce Exposure • Reduce Sensitivity • Enhance Adaptive

Capacity

Source: Dawson et al. 2011

General Adaptation Strategies Can be used to help identify specific strategies/actions

• Reduce non-climate stresses • Protect key ecosystem

features • Ensure connectivity • Restore structure and function • Support evolutionary potential • Protect refugia • Relocate organisms or systems

But….to be “climate-smart” must take into account future conditions and have explicit links to climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities

Enhance Connectivity • Special role for wetlands and

riparian zones – Riparian zones in particular serve as

important linear features through often inhospitable landscapes

• Wetlands and riparian areas facilitate movement of organisms over short and long term

• Hydrologic connectivity is important for both surface and subsurface waters

Climate-Smart Cycle Step 5

Evaluating Possible Actions Emphasis on identifying a set of actions that collectively would achieve climate-informed goals • Conservation goals

– Effectiveness meeting stated goals/objectives

• Other goals/values – Co-benefits for other societal values

• Feasibility – Cost, technical feasibility, social acceptance, etc.

• Climate-smart considerations – Based on key characteristics

Key Characteristic

Actions Linked to Climate Impacts

• Does the project “connect the dots” between climate impacts and proposed action?

– What’s the theory of change? – Does it demonstrate

“intentionality”?

• How is project/action intended to reduce key vulnerabilities or address specific impacts?

Key Characteristic

Forward-Looking Goals

• Is the project explicit about its goals?

• Are goals climate-informed? – Have they been reviewed for

feasibility in light of climate change? – Have they been validated and/or

modified as a result? – Is time horizon for

benefits/performance explicit (e.g., short, medium, long)

• Where does the project fall on the continuum of change? – Is focus on resistance or

realignment?

Key Characteristic

Broader Landscape Context

• Does project/action take into account broader landscape and projected climatic shifts? – How does local action

contribute to broader landscape conservation needs?

• Are there landscape factors that could limit/enhance effectiveness of effort? – For instance, constraints on

inland marsh migration

– Opportunities for enhancing connectivity?

Housing Density 2010 Source: D. Theobald, CSU

Key Characteristic

Robust in an Uncertain Future

• Is project/action “robust” across multiple possible scenarios, or optimized for one future?

• How sensitive is action to particular scenarios of change in: – Climate – Ecological Response – Human response

Key Characteristic

Agile and Informed Management

• Does the project/action allow for course corrections, or commit to an irreversible course of action?

• Can clear indicators or thresholds be identified that would trigger adjustment or go/no go decisions?

• Are adequate monitoring and evaluation approaches in place/ proposed to support informed management? FWS Strategic Habitat Conservation

framework

Key Characteristic

Minimizes Carbon Footprint

• What direct or indirect greenhouse gas emissions are associated with project/action?

• Does the project contribute to (or undermine) carbon sequestration and storage?

Key Characteristic

Considers Climate Influence on Project Success

• Is the project designed for climate adaptation, or an existing project in need of a “climate-retrofit”?

• How will climate changes (direct and indirect) affect performance for project?

• Does the project/action avoid clearly compromised investments, or if not, have an intentional transition plan?

Degrading wetlands, coastal LA

Key Characteristic

Safeguards People and Nature

• To what extent does the project/action provide benefits (or “co-benefits”) to people and other societal sectors? – Natural hazard reduction – Water quantity/quality

protection – Climate risk reduction

Key Characteristic

Avoids Maladaptation

• Would the project/action increase the vulnerability to other important resources (ecological or human)?

• Are there possible unintended consequences or unacceptable trade-offs?

• One person’s adaptation may be another’s maladaptative response!

What do These Characteristics Look Like in Practice?

Minimizes Carbon Footprint Restoring hydrology to keep carbon in the Great Dismal Swamp. Also provides improved flood protection for downstream communities

What do These Characteristics Look Like in Practice?

Strategies Robust to Uncertainty Construction of fish shelves at varying levels in stream restoration to account for increased variability in water levels

What do These Characteristics Look Like in Practice?

Consider Climate Influence on Project Success Living shoreline at Conquest Beach Maryland is being designed to accommodate rising sea levels

Putting Plans into Action

Rely on existing best

practices

Professional Training in Climate-Smart Conservation

• Training course offered through US Fish and Wildlife Service’s National Conservation Training Center

• Three-day course offered at various locations around the country

– Underway this week in Austin, Texas; scheduled in January for Live Oaks, Florida

• New one-day training course in pilot phase

Getting the Most Out of Climate-Smart Three Levels of Guidance

1. General adaptation principles – Overarching Themes – Key Characteristics

2. Generalized process for adaptation planning/implementation

– Climate-Smart cycle – BUT, multiple ways to accomplish each step, or ability to

mix and match

3. Specific process suggestions/methods – A way to help practitioners get started – Not intended as the only way to accomplish

More General

More Specific

Wetland-Related Adaptation Opportunities

• Increased recognition of protective function of wetlands for community resilience – New Executive Order on ecosystem services – SAGE Initiative -- community of practice encouraging gray/green

approaches – FEMA flood mapping – advisory panel considering improvements in

how natural features are credited in risk maps

• Carbon capture and sequestration services/markets – Blue carbon (coastal and marine systems) – Other wetland systems (e.g., bottomland hardwoods)

Call for Case Studies in Natural Risk Reduction

• NWF developing a new report to highlight “best in class” examples of using natural features for hazard risk reduction

• Follow-on to our 2014 Natural Defenses report

• Collaboration with Allied World reinsurance

• Nominations being solicited for case studies – submit to holsteinn@nwf.org by 12/31/15

Summing Up

• Act with intentionality

• Manage for change, not just persistence

• Reconsider goals, not just strategies

• Integrate adaptation into existing work

Thank You

Questions?