climate smart restoration success-koslow, haven and ryan, 2012
TRANSCRIPT
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Melinda Koslow & Celia Haven
Great Lakes Regional Center
National Wildlife Federation
Jill Ryan
Freshwater Future
Wednesday September 12, 2012Climate-Smart Restoration Success: Local and Landscape Scale
Examples and Tools
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Order of Workshop
1. Landscape-Scale Process & Example
2. Online Tools Demo
3. Community-Scale Process & Example
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Is Your Coastal Restoration Project
Climate-Smart?
6-step Guidelines for the Great Lakes
download a copy at:
http://www.nwf.org/glcoastalfuture
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Testing Guidance On-The-Ground & Getting Results
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512 acres, jobs created,
$1.3 million in GLRI
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Restore or enhance 512 acres of habitat to emergent wetland, bottom and upland forest, sedge meadow and grassland, providing hydrologic reconnection to Lake Erie within the Maumee AOC and in a Globally Important Bird Area. Restoration work is currently starting and will conclude in 2013.
Lake Erie
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91-acre Helle tract, reforesting approximately 53 acres of uplands and floodplain and restoring 16 acres of wetlands
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Step One: Identify Restoration Goals and Targets
• Restore water quality
• Enlarge floodplain
• Increase wildlife and migratory bird stopover habitat
• Fish passage
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Step Two: Identify Restoration Project Approaches
• Take 53 acres of agricultural land out of production and reforested
• Plant native species known to be favored by migrating landbirds, such as dogwood, hackberry, oak, and willow
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Key Climate-Smart Questions
• Given the life span of trees (50-100 years and beyond), under what climate scenarios should we prepare?
• Is it too early to consider planting species of a different range?
• Is it more urgent to plan for increasing air temperatures or uncertain precipitation conditions?
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Step Three: Assess Vulnerability of Targets/Project Approaches to Climate Change
1. Sensitivity of species or ecosystem2. Exposure of species or ecosystem to
climate change3. Adaptive Capacity – ability of
species or ecosystem to deal with, survive through or adapt to changes
Find Scanning the Conservation Horizon at www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide
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Bl
Assessing VulnerabilityCurrently looking at vulnerability of four different species (as requested by project partners)
4. Black Willow
1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak
3. Pin Oak
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Sensitivity - Water
4. Black Willow
1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak
3. Pin Oak
Thrive in moist, well-drained areas
Thrive in flood plains and swampy areas
Thrive in swampy, low lands of forested areas and seasonal standing water
Thrive in wetlands and alongside streams and rivers, as well as marshy areas
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Sensitivity - Range1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak
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Sensitivity - Range3. Pin Oak 4. Black Willow
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Exposure
Climate Change Impacts of Concern (as a result of climate drivers exercise with local land managers)
– Seiche (high wind, innundation)
– Summer drought– Spring flooding,
runoff to Lake Erie– Year-long warmer
air temps
Photo courtesy of NOAA
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Exposure –Spring Precipitation
Maps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.
Spring Precip Change Next 40 years Spring Precip Change Next 70 years
Models in agreement on increases of precipitation spring over next 70 years.Intensity and duration will also be a large factor to consider.
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Exposure - TemperatureMaps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.
Annual Temp Change Next 40 years Annual Temp Change Next 70 years
Models show annual warming temperatures of 4.5 ºF to 6.5 ºF over next 70 years.
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Exposure –Summer DroughtMaps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.And Hayhoe et al. (2010) Regional Climate Change Projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research.
Summer Precip Change Next 40 years – Hayhoe paper (SRES A1)
Summer Precip Change Next 40 years – Climate Wizard (SRES A2)
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Adaptive Capacity
USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas
Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.
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Adaptive Capacity1. Flowering Dogwood
Dogwood Model Reliability: High
Looks fairly safe
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Adaptive Capacity
2. Bur Oak
Could summertime precip changes be to blame?
Bur Oak Model Reliability: Medium
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Adaptive Capacity3. Pin Oak
Pin Oak Model Reliability: Medium
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Adaptive Capacity4. Black Willow Black Willow Model Reliability: Low
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Step Four: Identify Climate-Smart Options
• Strategies that reduce sensitivity or exposure, or enhance adaptive capacity
– Plant a diversity of species and ages that can tolerate a range of flow conditions (pin oak) and disturbances like heat waves or drought (flowering dogwood)
– Enhance riparian vegetation to cool surrounding air temperatures
– Reduce exposure to flooding by enhancing wetlands upstream
– In cases of extreme drought, a nearby water pump system could be used until trees are established
– Prevent disease and pests, if possible
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Step Five: Select and Implement Management Options – Results!
Of Relevance to this Project:• Urgency – moderate to high
• Costs of climate-smart seed selection same as typical seed selection
• Technical Feasibility - high• Performance under uncertainty – water
management upstream• Availability of resources – donated box culvert
• Ability to re-plant if necessary
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Step Six: Monitor, Review, Revise
QAPP plan may include: • Streamgaging – water depth and
volume• Phenological and composition changes, esp. avian• Tree species survival rates• Weather station(s)/Climate Information
– Anemometer helps identify potential seiche events – Measured air and precipitation temperatures provide a
daily (weather) and yearly, long-term (climate) record, can inform NWS Cleveland
– Build relationship with Ohio state climatologist
Review and revise with future vulnerability assessments, as climate and ecosystem models improve
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Testing Guidance On-The-Ground & Getting Results
1250 linear feet of fish habitat, $350,000 in
GLRI
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Upcoming
Updates include: monitoring section, plant selection, and case studies
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Thank you! Melinda Koslow, Regional Program Manager [email protected]
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How to find what you’re looking for?
Online Climate Change Resources
Led by Celia Haven, [email protected]
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Online Climate Change Resources
• Modeled Impacts/Vulnerabilities
• News and Blogs• Case Studies and
Knowledge Sharing• Historical Climate Info• Future Climate Change
Scenarios
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Online Climate Change Resources
• CanVis:– http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/canvis/
• U.S. Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas:– http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html
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West Grand Boulevard
Collaborative
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Considering Climate isn’t new work to be done, it is a new way of working
1. Think about how your work could be impacted by the effects of climate change
2. Assess the information you have
3. Brainstorm how you can incorporate climate adaptation activities based on what you know about climate change
4. Start taking action, monitor your effectiveness, and talk with others to ensure your work will provide the desired impact
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Jill Ryan, Executive Director231.348.8200 [email protected]
View our Climate RFP at:www.freshwaterfuture.org/grants
Thank you Kresge Foundation for your support and EcoAdapt for your expertise!