climate vulnerability and resilience in electric power grids

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Climate Vulnerability and Resilience in Electric Power Grids28 October 2016Daniel Burillo, PhD StudentCivil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Supervisory Committee Mikhail Chester, Ph.D.Benjamin Ruddell, Ph.D., P.E.Nathan Johnson, Ph.D.

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power Grids

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Grid resilience to extreme heat waves projected by GCMsPolicy directivesTechnologyUrban planningTrade RulesTo maintain local reserve marginsBulk generation capacity > Peak load + 15%With consideration forTotal energy consumptionReactive power & transientsCongestionWater UseGreenhouse gas emissionsRatepayer costs

Resilience to heat waves: reserve margins that are less sensitive to heat.

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsThis presentation is about how to make power grids more resilient to extreme....I'm going to tell you policy directives along the way in 3 categories, to maintain local reserve margins, with consideration for.

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The grid is not a seamless network

Local reserve margins relieve: stress, bottlenecks, contingencies, cascading failures, and blackouts


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Research Questions

How much does the daily high temperature (Tmax) affect peak demand, generation capacity, and therefore resource adequacy?

How much less local reserve margin would power grids have today (with current urban infrastructure) if they experienced the high temperatures in GCM projections?

What can policy makers do to make power grids and/or urban infrastructure more resilient to extreme heat?


Case study comparison

Los AngelesMaricopaTotal land area (1,000 km2)1224Population (million)10430-year project population (million)127Buildings - R&C (million)3.41.5Central air conditioning penetration 48%95%Temperature variability (relative)HighLowRecent 15-year T90 (C/F)33 / 9144 / 111Hottest temperature on record (C/F)45 / 11350 / 122Projected hottest temperatures (C/F)56 / 13358 / 136Infrastructure age (relative)OlderNewerNet electric power balanceImporterExporter

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsPeak Demand


Approach: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

Build a model to explain the physical behavior, then fit it to the data.

Cooling

Heating

Extreme heat?O AZPSO LDWP

GCM Projections


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SEM: Peak demand = f of AC load = f of Tmaxnominal -coincidencerate

Interdependencies: Thermostat settings, building thermal efficiency, AC performance


Peak Demand (GW)Model fit

Resilience: reduce climate shocks by smoothening AC performance with variable speed motors

GCM Projections

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsBetter model fitMore consistent climatePolicyVariable speed AC motorsMore consistent loadBetter predictionFewer transientsMore contingency capacityLess hardware failure

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AC coincident duty cycles & additional loadAC use patterns & resilience to high tempsResilience: reduce sensitivity to temperature by reducing temperature-based power demandLower thermostat settingsHigher duty cycle rate

GCM ProjectionsAdditional AC load

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsHigher AC duty-cycle rate More humid climate Lower thermostat settings Lower thermal efficiencyPolicyMulti-unit housingBuilding albedo (white)West-side shade (trees)Building thermal insulation

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GenerationCapacity

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsNatural gas combustion plantsare sensitive to air temperatureA Generation capacityB Capacity loss factor (%/1C-Tmax)MaricopaLos AngelesGeneration type(MW)(%)(MW)(%)LowBaseHighHydroelectric951%3413%---Natural Gas (dry)3,29224%3,17828%0.5%0.6%1%Natural Gas (wet)6,18044%7,25165%---Nuclear3,93728%- ----Solar PV4463%4494%0.1%0.35%0.6%Total Net13,950100%11,218100%Maricopa0.12%0.15%0.26%Los Angeles0.15%0.18%0.31%

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsPolicy Solutions, with Trade-offsBuild more bulk power plantsMeet peak demandRequires more transmission capacityCongestionWater use & GHGs

Resilient Policy SolutionsInstall more distributed energy resourcesReduce peak load & improve smoothnessReduce congestion & increase contingency cap.Smart-inverter standards for Solar PVReduce reactive power & transients

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Solution A More bulk generation, and delivery infrastructure

Bulk generation facilities meet capacity requirements, but have tradeoffs with other policy goalsImage sources:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_plant#/media/File:PressurizedWaterReactor.gif

Power plantDelivery infrastructure

GHGsWater use


Solution B Distributed energy

Generating power at the load reduces and smooths the load

Smart inverter standards improve reactive power

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsReserve Margin


Local reserve margins can decrease 30%

GCM Projections


T90Los AngelesMaricopaClimateNon-stationarity


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Traditional business models bias the planning process

Services Utility Provides Utility Profits

Basic needsSafetyCommerceLuxuries

InfrastructureEnergy sales

Electric power started as a luxury, but has evolved into a necessary critical infrastructure system

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsElectric power started as a luxury good, but has evolved into more of a critical infrastructure necessity

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Trade rules that incentivize resilience

Reward utilities for reliabilitySmoothness in the load & efficiencyTotal energy sales

Charge customers for energySimple, transparent, equitable, effectiveComplex engineering concepts

Align the utility and customer incentives towards the same goals.

#Daniel Burillo| Arizona State UniversityClimate Vulnerability andPhD Oral Qualifying Examination | 28 October 2016Resilience in Electric Power GridsSimple, transparent, equitable, effectiveMonthly energy useTiered rates for high consumption (luxury)Time-of-day prices (peak hours)Seasonal prices (summer surcharge)Prosumer incentivesEnergy efficient appliance rebatesComplex engineering concepts

ReliabilitySmoothness in the loadEfficiency in deliveryOther engineering factors

Total energy sales

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Conclusions & next steps

How much does the daily high temperature (Tmax) affect peak demand (2x s-curve), generation capacity (~10% linear), and therefore resource adequacy (significantly)?

How much less local reserve margin would power grids have today (with current urban infrastructure) if they experienced the high temperatures in GCM projections? (~30%)

What can policy makers do to make power grids and/or urban infrastructure more resilient to extreme heat? (update rules & regulations)


Thank you!

[email protected]


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climate vulnerability and resilience in electric power grids

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