c.m. peters department of civil engineering, university … · people, planning and traffic - where...

People, planning and traffic - where are we going?

C.M. Peters

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Portsmouth,

Portsmouth, UK

Abstract

The problems of Urban Transport for the next century inevitably will revolvearound congestion and pollution, which is reflected by the demand for travel. Thispaper attempts to examine the situation with regard to people, their need for travel,the changes in travel over the past century, and the effect of the car in thatrelationship. The paper also examines the role of planning, from past perspectivesto future expectations.

1. Introduction

People, planning and traffic are the basic elements which relate to currenttransport problems all over the world. The problems are now to be found in boththe new as well as the older industrialised countries, in the country, as well as intowns and cities. However major congestion and pollution is still predominantlyan urban problem, particularly for the larger cities.

If the people are here, and the traffic is here, so one may enquire, where didthe planning go wrong? Such a question implies that the root of today's problemsare very much the fault of the planners (whether land-use planners ortransportation planners or both.) However a broader review to consider where wehave come from will tend to set more problems in their true perspective.Hobsbawm^ suggests that 'the most dramatic practical consequence of advancingtechnology was the revolution in transport and communications which virtuallyannihilated time and distance' and he adds that 'more information andentertainment, daily or hourly was available to the ordinary household in 1990,than had been available to emperors in 1914.'

In particular the basic change was caused by two significant events: theemancipation of the masses brought about initially by the first world war inEurope, and Henry Ford's mass production of the 'model-T' for American

Transactions on the Built Environment vol 23, © 1996 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3509

504 Urban Transport and the Environment

farmers. Effectively once mass car ownership (which emerged in the USA inthe 1930s and in Western Europe from the 1950s) was upon us the so called geniewas out of the bottle and it is very difficult to see how, or whether it will ever bereplaced (in the bottle that is) without considerable changes in attitude. The mainproblem is that there are too many of us and we all wish to own and use our carsas much as possible; or demand that the goods we consume are instantly available.If we were all living a life style similar to our forebears, before 1914 or even 1950,then there would not need to be 'The Great Transport Debate'.

The true extent of world wide pollution effects and global warming areuncertain and whilst experts will continue to debate the issue, individuals tend toignore the problem. People who have experienced cars and their convenience willbe very reluctant to give them up, those who yet still aspire to own a car areprobably just as reluctant to forego their dream. Whilst cleaner engines andelectric vehicles will do much to lessen the air pollution in urban areas - thecontinued use of individual vehicles does nothing to lessen congestion.

Wherever road space is limited and the natural restraint of congestion doesnot create a sufficient shift to alternative modes (or suppress demand) then theonly solution may well be to limit or ration the use of the facility. In reality mostsocieties will endeavour to solve the solution by some form of politicalcompromise. As long ago as 1990 Adams^ posed the question 'Pull the ladder upor climb back down?' All consumer societies function on the premise that demandcreates opportunities, these opportunities create profit and wealth, which in turncreates further demand. Thus by inference consumer societies are not inherentlyinclined to climb back down. Hence it is more likely that most governments willendeavour by subtle means to pull the ladder up.

2. The People

Current estimates of world population are put at about 5.5 billions with almost 100million being added to the population every year. By any imagination thisamounts to an enormous number of people; and with a continued growth rate of2% per annum the world's population can be expected to double every 35 years.So by the year 2030 things could get very uncomfortable. But the problem is notuniform, in the more developed countries (typically western Europe) populationshave been fairly static for the past 10 to 20 years with only notional growth (0.2%per annum). But de-population of the countryside is a continuing problem withinsufficient people remaining in villages and remote rural areas to maintain localservices, particularly regarding shops, schools and public transport.

However in the less developed countries the population growth is verydifferent and much higher (up to 2.8% per annum) - with very serious socialimplications, particularly in the cities. In newly developing countries populationgrowth tends to be much higher as parents need more children to support thefamily unit and look after elderly adults (statutory support agencies are verylimited or non-existent.) The population growth in cities is exacerbated by themigration from rural areas, as local people are attracted to the potential of a better


Urban Transport and the Environment 505

lifestyle and slightly better resources. This however is a false hope as often theresources in cities are shared much less equitably between the rich and the poor.

Migration from rural to urban areas has been steadily increasing since the18th century as and when individual countries have moved from an agrarianeconomy towards industrialisation (or trading valuable local resources). In 17thcentury Britain 67% of the population were employed in agriculture and rentsaccounted for 20% of the national income; by 1980 the figures were 5% and 1%(respectively). As the ordinary people in western society have become moreprosperous so consumerism has increased, leading in turn to a greater demand forthe transportation of people and goods. However an important factor in the declineof employment in agriculture is the increase in use of mechanisation and increasedyields.

In 1985, 72% of the population of the more developed countries resided incities compared to 32% for less developed countries. But it is in the lessdeveloped countries where greater urbanisation is now occurring with a growthrate of 3.6% per annum urban populations are likely to account for 57% of thepopulation by 2025. At the beginning of the twentieth century the cities with largepopulations and inherent problems of traffic congestion and pollution were the oldEuropean capitals of London, Paris, Berlin, Vienna with typical populations of 2to 4!4 millions. However at the end of the twentieth century the new mega citieswill be found generally in the newly developing countries, and their likelypopulations in the year 2010 for the ten largest cities will be 17-29 millions.

There exists across the globe many problems of social deprivationassociated with over population, but these are not the only problems of urbanliving. Even where people are peacefully going about their lawful daily businessin large numbers we are creating serious problems of pollution and congestionowing to vast numbers of people and the traffic on our streets.

3. The Traffic - Changing Travel Patterns

Road traffic is not an end in itself, but a means to an end, the movement of peopleand goods has always been necessary to sustain any given lifestyle. A simplelifestyle will be less demanding and mainly reliant upon local resources, a moreluxurious or consumer based lifestyle will demand a whole range of goods andservices and maximise personal travel opportunities.

Despite direct world wide access into their homes, through television andthe internet, the people of highly industrialised nations are travelling greaterdistances than ever before. This is easily illustrated by considering the changes intourism over the last centuries. In Europe of the seventeenth century, it wasessentially the aristocracy and the landed gentry together with those few whomthey chose to patronise who travelled most. Particularly in vogue at the time of theEnlightenment was to do the Grand Tour of the European capitals and centres ofculture. The arrival of the industrial revolution (1760) and the new wealth itcreated, added many new classes of professionals and business people to the listof travellers. By 1850 the Victorian steam railway allowed the masses, working



long hours in the dismal industrial areas, to enjoy an occasional day excursion tothe country or the seaside. This was just as important to many of their descendantsone hundred years later, again to escape from the drudgery of working class lifein the grimy cities. However it was during the second half of the twentieth centurythat travel and tourism rapidly expanded. In the 1950s the common holidaydestination for many ordinary people would be to the nearest coast (usually under100 miles) for a one-week vacation, using trains or buses. The next significantchange occurred in the early 1960s with the increase in car ownership; post warmass production brought a wider range of cheaper second-hand vehicles to manymore of the general public. Thus holidays were to a much greater range ofdestinations with increasing distances travelled.

By the early 1970s cheap overseas package tours to particularMediterranean resorts were commonplace and again a wider range of destinationsbecame more available through the decade. By the economic boom period of thelate 1980s many more people were travelling to all continents; with economytravel tickets now widely available to ordinary people, world wide travel was nolonger to be exclusively the privilege of the rich and famous. However whereastourist centres may have particular seasonal problems associated with masstourism it is the everyday demands for travel which create the regular problems oftraffic congestion and pollution in our towns and cities and particularly thedependency upon the car as a means of personal mobility.

4. Travel - The Dominance of the Car

Recent surveys suggests that in Britain the average person is travelling more thanever, but those who can, choose particularly to use their cars.

Looking at wider changes over a decade of motoring (1984 - 1994):passenger transport (all modes) has increased by 29%,freight transport has increased by 43%,household expenditure on transport rose by 24% (1983 - 1993),traffic on motorways increased by 84%,traffic on all roads increased by 39%,

By comparison:road mileage (at 365,000 km) increased by 5%,carbon dioxide emissions (from traffic) increased by 34%,traffic now accounts for 25% of all CC emissions in the UK.

Although there has been much talk of persuading people to use cars less,car travel is on the increase and walking trips are on the decline, thus suggests theNational Travel Survey 1992/1994 1 In 1994 the average British resident walked200 miles per year (2% less than for 1992), but for 5-15 year olds walking wasdown by 27%, more children are driven to school (but 55% of pupils still walk toschool). As a mode, walking accounted for 92% of all journeys under /6 mile butfor only 68% of journeys of between % to 1 mile in length.

What is significant to all this, is the change of car ownership and increasein use. Ever since the work of Tanner in the 1960s it was clear that car ownership



was increasing and that it would naturally increase until at sometime in the future,a saturation level would occur. The real question was what was the saturationlevel and when would it occur? It was recognised that the public generallyregarded car ownership as a useful goal, and in reality the question of growth rateand saturation levels was predominately governed by prosperity and economicgrowth. Clearly all who could own and maintain a car would choose to do so.Adams^ suggests it is more relevant to consider the numbers of people who couldown (or would like to have cars) rather than consider basic likely levels in termsof cars/household according to socio-economic models. By the former method,gives a likely saturation of 36 million cars; whereas the latter method reveals a lessrealistic maximum of 39 million cars.

In the UK, in the early years of wider car ownership among the middlemanagers (1930s - 1950s) it was not uncommon for the family breadwinner to stilluse the bus or train to work and the car was used essentially for special occasionsand at weekends. By the 1960s wider car ownership among all workers meant thecar was most often used by the breadwinner to travel to work, (except commutersinto major city centres); but there the car would stay all day until used for thereturn trip home in the evening peak hour. The family car was still very much thepersonal convenience for the breadwinner and generally its use was restricted.However the next significant change was other members of the family learning todrive. This resulted in the family car also being used on occasions by the wife andor adult children. Thus the car had changed from being his, to a more generalfamily asset for all to use, which in turn led to an increase in 2-car families, firstin the professional classes, but later for all where there was sufficient income -even if the second vehicle was an elderly runabout. This situation is confirmed bythe statistics: in 1975/1976 only 13% of women owned cars, but by 1992/1994 thefigure has risen to 35%, ( male ownership changed from 51% to 64% over thesame period). The report 'Car Dependence' prepared by ESRU^ particularlyhighlights the significant users in eight distinct categories:-

low income rural residents single parentshigh income residents female workersfamilies with children the elderlypeople who travel at night security conscious women

Whilst the motoring public are travelling more on average (as reported above), twoparticular changes emerge. The first is the greater use of the car for shorter localtrips - this is consistent with the greater use of thQ family car as a general purposerunabout - particularly where a second vehicle and other adult drivers are availablein the household. Mogridge^ shows that since the mid 1960s the proportion ofshort trips (under 5 miles) has increased from 55% to 61% whereas the proportionof trips over 10 miles has marginally dropped from 22 % to 19% - all this despitethat with a now complete motorway network, many people now make more longerjourneys more frequently than in the early 1960s. It is particularly the increase useof the car around town which has led to increased urban congestion and pollution.

Another significant statistic with regards to car travel is that there appears



to be a maximum time that people are prepared to spend in their vehicles. Incomparing urban and rural travel distances the RAC report declines todistinguish whether it is because there is less need to travel so far (moredestinations closer for urban residents) or whether the lower urban speeds makecar travel less attractive and people do not have the time to travel more comparedto rural travellers. A brief report by Mynors^^ suggests that travel time has notchanged since 1973, but that distances will increase if we travel more easily. (Thiswould be consistent with the wider travel opportunities afforded by the steamrailways in 1850 compared to the very limited horse drawn coach, and also thegreater opportunities available to motorists in the 1970s with a more extendedmotorway network). However he also identifies that more company car userstravel longer distances to work if their office moves rather than re-locate theirhome - but a factor in this equation may now be the lack of security attached toemployment - some early re-locaters sometimes had to face new unemploymenteven when moving to find new work. At present 11.2% of cars on the road arecompany vehicles - but such vehicles now account for 50% of new vehiclepurchases and thus significantly affect the market trends . Safety features arenow more common for company cars (eg air bags on 30% of cars in 1994, c/f 6%1993), but such drivers are still identified as the fast drivers (51% like to drive fastcompared to 24% of motorists generally). Thus if speeds were reduced, thisshould also reduce the distance travelled, accidents and the levels of pollution.

The real problem is that people have become accustomed to freely usingtheir cars at will and any alternative does not find easy acceptance. The RACreport suggests that the problem relates not just car dependency but alsoidentifying the trip dependency where only a car will do. Either way theindications are that people are reluctant to change, with 80% indicating they couldnot manage without a car (55% strongly, 25% 'somewhat'). A similar result in1993 (AA Survey) suggested 40% were dependent for shopping trips, 16% saythey would just not go, and only 12% accepted that they could use publictransport.

Thus perhaps it is the reality of changing our planning ideas that we willrelearn most readily to be less reliant upon the car.

5. The Planning - Rules and Regulations

In the United Kingdom there are probably more rules and regulations concerningland use development than for any other European country. Many developers andentrepreneurs would most likely regard this as a disadvantage to the promotion ofbusiness and free enterprise and would wish to simplify the rules. From the otherpoint of view, most conservationists would probably regard the rules as totallyinadequate for the sensible protection of the country's heritage, wildlife andenvironment. Thereby lies the conflict: how much should we develop and exploitto expand wealth creation and share all good things; but what should be preservedand protected? The use of planning rules to deter nuisance and protect theenvironment have existed since Roman times.



Prior to the industrial revolution most industry was of a cottage industrynature, (e.g. spinning and weaving, printing, carpentry, and the local smithy) andas such its impact was very localised and hardly harmful. During the early stagesof the Industrial Revolution (1760-1820) the limited transport opportunities (canaland horse drawn vehicles) resulted in the need to locate the new industries at thesource of power (water power) or raw materials and new, albeit very cramped,housing was usually constructed nearby. Thus the workers lived near to theirwork, and in turn other local traders emerged and flourished to support thoseworking in the factories. There were no or few local transport problems ofcongestion or pollution - but opportunities for expansion and trade were verylimited as it was very difficult to get the products to distant markets. Onesignificant factor in all this, as identified by Bronowski , was that the industrialrevolution which began at Coalbrookdale, was in the heart of the Englishcountryside, and thus all such developments inevitably began in the countryside.However the first planning laws introduced in the United Kingdom in the 19thcentury were not about industry versus agriculture, or town versus country - butwere concerned with public health and related to water supply, sewage and wastedisposal. Two very significant events which were to change attitudes andstrengthen the call for planning laws and the provision of public utilities to meeturban needs, were to be seen in London. In 1854 a doctor had linked a choleraoutbreak with the water supplied from a particular pump located in Broad Street,Soho . The second catastrophic event was the sinking of a pleasure craft in theThames estuary near Barking in 1878. Many passengers thrown into the Thamesdied, not from drowning, but by poisoning. The subsequent construction of twomain interceptor sewers across north London with a treatment works at Becktonwas to provide a considerable improvement.

In the UK the first major planning laws relating to general land-usedevelopment (rather than public health matters) were introduced in 1909, withfurther laws in 1925 and 1932. But it is suggested that none of these rules createdthe necessary power to prevent undesirable development . A classic example ofwhat seemed to be a good idea at the time, but which was to prove a planningdisaster much later, was the allowing of Ribbon Development. In the 1920s theroad system of Great Britain was re-classified to form a designated network ofmain routes across the country, in 1928 there were about 2 million vehicles inBritain. The ribbon development was designed to protect the backlands fromunrestrained development, by concentrating the allowable development along thecorridor of the main routes. At the time this seemed quite acceptable since theroad corridor was able to provide the capacity for local, regional and nationaltraffic which was to freely mix on the main routes, and at a maximum of about 300vehicles per hour this was not a problem. However as traffic levels increased theroutes became very congested, and by the 1960s an alternative was required. Bynow the mix of local and national traffic added to the congestion (frequent spacingof junctions and much turning traffic) but ironically it was the extensive frontagedevelopment along the route which prevented major widening along the trafficcorridor. Thus, for example, in the 1960s the M4 motorway was constructed as a



major new route to by-pass and relieve the old A4 trunk road; but this time the newroute would be essentially for national and regional traffic only. However in someinstances a new motorway route also tended to provide for local traffic. The M25orbital route around London is a well known example of this problem. Thissituation arises because the M25 intercepts many important radial routes enteringLondon, thus junctions are very frequent and the orbital route allows accessibilityfor local as well as regional trips. Controversial plans to widen the M25 by addingtwo 3-lane carriageways to cater for the localised movement were eventuallyabandoned by the government in 1995 following considerable lobbying frompolitical and environmental pressure groups.

However the most damaging aspect of the conflict between transport andplanning has been the freedom to travel on a daily basis. The concept of work inthe city but live in the country was an ideal which would appeal to every family,every householder and every individual. An ideal born at the end of the lastcentury in the United States where in 1887 there were just 10 electric tramways,but 12,500 miles of operational tramway by 1895.

Whilst the sub-urban railways radiating out from major cities has allowedmuch commuting and sub-urban development, particularly where electrificationof routes led to reduced journey times, it is undoubtedly the greater flexibility ofthe motor car which has been the more general cause of urban sprawl. In theUnited States the move to the suburbs associated with increased car ownershipbegan in the 1920s. It was somewhat halted by the Great Depression in the 1930sand the World War in the 1940s but began again in 1946 when a local builderdeveloped 4000 acres of farmland (Levittown) on Long Island, 25 miles east ofNew York city/*^ Levittown was destined to become the model for post waramerican sub-urbanisation, a type of development which made the car a virtualnecessity. Such early developments were just an indication of the later and moregeneral migration to the sunshine states, notably Florida and California. In theUnited States between 1950 and 1976 sub-urban populations grew at 8!6 times thatof city dwellers - suburbia provided better housing and facilities, more space andmore privacy, everything consistent with the Great American Dream.

The predominance of the car and the subsequent sub-urbanisation was notthe sole prerogative of North America, but the vast land space available there didhelp. In Europe a similar picture emerged even if on a smaller scale, by 1945some 10% of England had been urbanised but by 1995 this had increased to 15%.

By the late 1980s, Los Angeles realising the difficulties of living with carpollution set stringent targets to limit vehicle emissions (reduction of hydrocarbonsto 10% of 1991 levels by 2003, and also that 10% of all cars sold in L.A. after2010 would be non-polluting). It is now acknowledged that these objectives aremost unlikely to be achieved. In the United Kingdom the government has a statedaim to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

So if the space required and pollution is very much a consequence of a car-borne society what of the future? And if land-use planning (or lack of it) hascontributed to the overall transportation problems, what can planning now do toreduce the problems? The overall target may be considered as applying in three



specific ways:• reduce overall travel demand.• switch travel to less polluting modes.• reduce emissions of all vehicles.Land use changes can reduce the extent of travel if we return to planning

cities and towns on a smaller scale and rely on mixed land-use and greater use oflocal facilities. This in many ways epitomises the hub of the problem - that is thechanging of attitudes. The whole of western society and culture revolves aroundconsumerism and success, and this was politically encouraged, particularly (butnot exclusively) in the U.S.A. and U.K. by the political right through the 1980s.Changes in retailing have been particularly problematic, Out of Town shoppingcentres emerged in the U.S.A.with 8 centres by 1946, but by the early 1980s therewere 20,000 such centres in the U.S.A. which it is claimed account for two-thirdsof all retail sales. Such shopping centres are seen as an example of a badplanning strategy because of the generation of additional car travel and also thepossible dereliction of traditional town centres, particularly affecting thesmall/medium size town not having a special centre of attraction. However recentresearch ) suggests that store location may not be relevant as such trips now tendto form just part of trip combinations of multi-purpose trips (no doubt more viablenow because of extended retail hours of business during the evening and atweekends). Another solution to combat many car-borne shopping trips is the ideaof home delivery shopping (quite common in the U.K. up until the early 1960s).However this may not prove popular if customers choose to select what they arebuying (particularly for fresh food). Such a move could lead to improved workopportunities for teenagers riding again the once familiar trade bicycle.

With regard to new ideas in major land use development two verychallenging projects are to be found in southern California, the 'Mission VeijoProject' and also the TlayaVista' development in Los Angeles. Both projectsinvolve mixed developments of housing, schooling, shopping and commercialemployment on the same site to encourage local patronage and minimise traveldemand. However one difficulty of such projects is that they need to be of highquality and sufficiently up market to promote the interest of enough would beresidents; but at the same time to be sufficiently self-sufficient they also need atleast 10% (in quantity) of low-cost subsidised housing to allow for manual/bluecollar workers undertaking ancillary and maintenance work etc. Such subsidiesare often an anathema to the ultra free-enterprise politicians of the political 'right'.

6. Planning and the Future

In the past land-use development has always tended to follow new transportcorridors and opportunities. Wherever the transport infrastructure is completedfirst the local land developer is less likely to have to pay for it. But, if extra landdevelopment generates extra traffic, which then in turn overloads the local or newtransport system (road or rail) surely it is excessive development which leads tothe transport congestion and may also further compromise the situation by



preventing easy or cheap improvement of the transport system. Bearing thisparadox in mind (a re-statement of the ribbon development problem) newguidelines' in the U.K. for future development suggest:

• future development should be concentrated where there is alreadysufficient public transport infrastructure.

• sites adjacent to good highway connections should be reserved for thetype of development which particularly requires such access.

It is envisaged that this will:• focus development in urban areas and re-vitalise existing areas.• contain the development of small settlements.

Projections suggest that such planning measures could contribute to the reductionof transport emissions by up to 16% over a period of 20-25 years.

Whilst the ideas of sustainable development and proposed greater urbandensities may suggest a way forward it cannot be certain that such ideals reallymeet with social trends. In England it is estimated that 230,000 people now havesecond homes and many of these will be in the country. In the UK estimatessuggest that because of changes in lifestyle, over 4 million new homes will needto be constructed by 2016 and that some 24 new towns are envisaged.

It is acknowledged that the planning system can only achieve limitedchanges very slowly, whereas for example the doubling of fuel prices wouldproduce a much greater effect, much more quickly.

References

1. HOBSBAWM, E.J. Age of Extremes, Joseph, 1994.2. PETERS, C.M. The Development of Transport and Changing Attitudes,

Proc. Urban Transport and the Environment, (CMP), Southampton, 1995.3. ADAMS, J. Car Ownership Forecasting, Traffic Eng. and Control (Vol.

3l,No.3), March 1990.4. United Nations: Demographic Yearbook 1993, U.N. (New York), 1995.5. CAIRNCROSS and SINCLAIR, Introduction to Economics, (6* Edit.),

Butterworth, 1982.6. f rojpecfj q/PFbrW LWamjofzbfz 7P&9, U.N. (New York) 1989.7. Transport Statistics Great Britain 1995, H.M.S.O. 1995.8. National Travel Survey 1992/94, DoT. H.M.S.O. 1995.9. RAC Foundation, Car Dependence, ESRU, Oxford 1995.10. MOGRIDGE, M.J.H., Travel in Towns, MacMillan 1990.11. MYNORS, P. Time Travellers, New Civil Engineer, 23 Nov. 1995.12. What Drives the Company Motorist: The Lex Report on Motoring, 1995.13. BRONO WSKI, J. The Ascent of Man, BBC Books 1973.14. HALL, p. Urban and Regional Planning, Hyman, 1989.15. YERGIN, D. The Prize, BBC Books 1992.16. News Item, Traffic Eng. and Control, (Vol.37, No.l), Jan. 1996.17. Reducing Transport Emissions Through Planning, DoE, H.M.S.O., 1993.


c.m. peters department of civil engineering, university … · people, planning and traffic - where...

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