Coastal Ecosystems Response to Climate Change and Human Impact

in the Asia-Pacific Region (CERCCHI Project)

Coastal Ecosystems Response to Coastal Ecosystems Response to Climate Change and Human ImpactClimate Change and Human Impact

in the Asiain the Asia--Pacific Region Pacific Region (CERCCHI Project)(CERCCHI Project)

Prof. Kazuo NadaokaDepartment of Mechanical and Environmental InformaticsGraduate School of Information Science and Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology

Prof. Kazuo NadaokaProf. Kazuo NadaokaDepartment of Mechanical and Environmental InformaticsDepartment of Mechanical and Environmental InformaticsGraduate School of Information Science and EngineeringGraduate School of Information Science and Engineering

Tokyo Institute of TechnologyTokyo Institute of Technology

In this presentation…In this presentationIn this presentation……

IntroductionThreats to the coastal ecosystemState of the coastal ecosystems & environment in East Asia and the PacificIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementThe CERCCHI Project

IntroductionIntroductionThreats to the coastal ecosystemThreats to the coastal ecosystemState of the coastal ecosystems & environment State of the coastal ecosystems & environment in East Asia and the Pacificin East Asia and the PacificIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementThe CERCCHI ProjectThe CERCCHI Project

Importance of the Coastal ZoneImportance of the Coastal ZoneWorld's most important and intensely used of all areas settled by humans.

An estimated 50 to 70 percent of the world's population lives in coastal zones.

Given the definition of ± 200 meters of the sea level", the coastal domain

occupies 18% of the surface of the globe;is where abut 25% of global primary productivity occurs; supplies approximately 90% of world fish catch; is where 90% of the global sedimentary mineralization occurs;accounts for 75 to 90% of the global sink of suspended river load and its associated elements or pollutants; accounts for 80% of the global organic matter burial; accounts for over 50% of present day global carbonate deposition.

World's most important and intensely used of all areas settled by humans.

An estimated 50 to 70 percent50 to 70 percent of the world's of the world's populationpopulation lives in coastal zones.

Given the definition of ± 200 meters of the sea level", the coastal domain

occupies 18%18% of the surfaceof the surface of the globe;is where abut 25%25% of global primary productivityof global primary productivity occurs; supplies approximately 90%90% of world fish catchof world fish catch; is where 90%90% of the global sedimentary global sedimentary mineralizationmineralization occurs;accounts for 75 to 90%75 to 90% of the global sink of suspended river global sink of suspended river loadload and its associated elements or pollutants; accounts for 80%80% of the global organic matter burialglobal organic matter burial; accounts for over 50%50% of present day global carbonate deposition.

‘Predator plagues like crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) may be initiated and certainly exacerbated by either over-fishing of key starfish predators; and/or increases in nutrient runoff from the land favors the planktonic stages of the starfish.’ (Goldberg and Wilkinson, 2004)

‘Predator plagues like crowncrown--ofof--thorns starfish (COTS)thorns starfish (COTS) may be initiated and certainly exacerbated by either overover--fishing of key starfish predatorsfishing of key starfish predators; and/or increases in increases in nutrient runoffnutrient runoff from the land favors the planktonic stages of the starfish.’ (Goldberg and Wilkinson, 2004)

Over-fishing threatens 64% of the reefs, destructive fishing, 56%, coastal development, 25% & agriculture & deforestation, 20%

OverOver--fishing fishing threatens 64% threatens 64% of the reefs, of the reefs, destructive fishing, destructive fishing, 56%, coastal 56%, coastal development, 25% development, 25% & agriculture & & agriculture & deforestation, 20% deforestation, 20%

Threats to Coastal EcosystemsThreats to Coastal EcosystemsMangrove deforestationMangrove deforestation

Natural grazingNatural grazingGleaningGleaning Reef exploitationReef exploitation

Seagrass decline Seagrass decline due todue toclimate change and climate change and pollutionpollution

Erosion & siltationErosion & siltation

Natural calamitiesEutrophication

No bleachingSeverity unknown

Low bleachingMediumHigh

Legend:

Occurrence & severity of coral bleachingOccurrence & severity of coral bleaching(Source: www.reefbase.org)(Source: www.reefbase.org)

Threats to Coastal EcosystemsThreats to Coastal Ecosystems

Coral BleachingCoral Bleaching

A growing body of evidence links severe coral bleaching and mortality to increasing rates of global climate change attributed to rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions (Goldberg and Wilkinson, 2004).

A growing body of evidence links severe coral bleaching and mortality to increasing rates of global increasing rates of global climate change climate change attributed to rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions (Goldberg and Wilkinson, 2004).

Global warming &Climate change

Sea level rise

Sea level rise

Increased COIncreased CO22

Seawater warming

Seawater warmingnewnew

habitathabitat

submarine

submarine

erosionerosion

photophoto--synthesissynthesis

reducedreducedcalcificationcalcification

reproduction

reproduction

habitat expansion

habitat expansion increased

increased respiration

respiration

Forecasted effectsForecasted effectsof climate change of climate change on seagrasson seagrass(Modified from Duarte 2002 by Fortes)

Climate change effects on seagrassClimate change effects on seagrass

Coastal Ecosystems in East Asia & the PacificCoastal Ecosystems in East Asia & the Pacific

World’s center of biodiversity

…globally significant for their biodiversity e.g. 30% of the world’s coral reefs (Wilkinson 2002), 33% of the world’s mangroves (Spalding et al. 1997), at least 10% of the world’s seagrasses (Green & Short 2003) .

……globally significant for their biodiversity e.g. globally significant for their biodiversity e.g. 30% of the world30% of the world’’s coral reefs (Wilkinson s coral reefs (Wilkinson 2002), 33% of the world2002), 33% of the world’’s mangroves s mangroves (Spalding et al. 1997), at least 10% of the (Spalding et al. 1997), at least 10% of the worldworld’’s s seagrassesseagrasses (Green & Short 2003) .(Green & Short 2003) .

HighMediumLow

Level of Overall Threat to Coral Reefs

State of the Coastal EcosystemState of the Coastal EcosystemPresentCoastal ecosystems are severely damaged:

over 80% of the reefs are at great risk; mangroves have lost 70% of their cover in the last 70 years;seagrass bed loss ranges from 20-60% in the last 50 years

PresentPresentCoastal ecosystems are severely Coastal ecosystems are severely damaged:damaged:

over 80% of the reefs are at great risk; over 80% of the reefs are at great risk; mangroves have lost 70% of their cover mangroves have lost 70% of their cover in the last 70 years;in the last 70 years;seagrass bed loss ranges from 20seagrass bed loss ranges from 20--60% in 60% in the last 50 yearsthe last 50 years

Future??Unless managed, the reefs will collapse within 20 years, all mangroves will be lost by 2030, & seagrass beds will follow suit, so will the resources & revenues derived from them (PEMSEA 2003)

Future??Future??Unless managed, the reefs will Unless managed, the reefs will collapse within 20 years, all collapse within 20 years, all mangroves will be lost by 2030, & mangroves will be lost by 2030, & seagrass beds will follow suit, so seagrass beds will follow suit, so will the resources & revenues will the resources & revenues derived from them (PEMSEA 2003)derived from them (PEMSEA 2003)

What must be done to avoid such a bleak future?What must be done to avoid such a bleak future?

Level of OverallAnthropogenic Impacts

On Coral Reefs

HighMediumLowNone

Focus on water quality per seFocus on water quality per se

Focus on conservationFocus on conservation

Integrated Coastal Ecosystem ManagementIntegrated Coastal Ecosystem Management

Link science and decision

Link science and decision--makingmaking

(multidisciplinary approach)

(multidisciplinary approach)

Enable understanding of

Enable understanding of

interrelationships across

interrelationships across

systemssystems

Integrated Coastal Ecosystem ManagementIntegrated Coastal Ecosystem Management

Consider complex interactions

Consider complex interactions

in managing coastal

in managing coastal

resources

resources

The CERCCHI ProjectThe CERCCHI Project

Coastal Zone Management must consider complex

interactions between social, economic, environmental systems

must be responsive to local needs and in agreement with global effortsPresent investigative efforts

narrow with results incompatible for understanding of interrelationships across systems

Coastal Zone Management Coastal Zone Management must consider complex must consider complex

interactions between social, interactions between social, economic, environmental economic, environmental systemssystems

must be responsive to must be responsive to local needs and in local needs and in agreement with global effortsagreement with global effortsPresent investigative efforts Present investigative efforts

narrow with results narrow with results incompatible for incompatible for understanding of understanding of interrelationships across interrelationships across systemssystems

ScopeSpatial and temporal aspects of change in natural and human systems in the tropical zoneMeasurement of dynamic parameters: CNP fluxes, sedimentation, sediment chemistry, tide level & wave actionRemote sensing data analysis as a rapid, comparable and readily available source of spatial records

ScopeScopeSpatial and temporal aspects Spatial and temporal aspects of changeof change in natural and in natural and human systems in the human systems in the tropical zonetropical zoneMeasurement of dynamic Measurement of dynamic parametersparameters: CNP fluxes, : CNP fluxes, sedimentation, sediment sedimentation, sediment chemistry, tide level & wave chemistry, tide level & wave actionactionRemote sensing data Remote sensing data analysisanalysis as a rapid, as a rapid, comparable and readily comparable and readily available source of spatial available source of spatial recordsrecords

Integrated Coastal Zone ManagementIntegrated Coastal Zone Management

o A global effort under wayo World Conservation Union (IUCN), UNESCO (IOC), other UN agencies, and the US NOAAo To improve the long-term sustainability of resources and environments of the world's LMES and linked watersheds. Five Module LME Approach

Underscores the need for Underscores the need for improved assessment, improved assessment,

monitoring and monitoring and modelling of pollution modelling of pollution

and and its effects its effects

on the coastal ecosystemon the coastal ecosystem

A Large Marine Ecosystems (LMES) Strategy for the Assessment andA Large Marine Ecosystems (LMES) Strategy for the Assessment andManagement of International Coastal WatersManagement of International Coastal Waters

Linkages between tropical ecosystemsLinkages between tropical ecosystems

Marine ecosystems•Corals•Mangroves•Seagrasses

Impa

cts

ImpactsResponses

Science+

IntegratedManage-

ment

Terrestrial ecosystemsHuman subsystem

•Habitation•Activities

Drivers•Nutrients (C,N&P)•Sediments•Chemicals

Goods and Services

Environmental loads

Hydrologic Systems•Rivers•Groundwater•Plains•Mountains and Hills

Hydrodynamic Systems•Reefs•Bays•Estuaries

Climate ChangeClimate Change

????Effects of

climate change

Marine ecosystems•Corals•Mangroves•Seagrasses

Impa

cts

ImpactsResponses

Science+

IntegratedManage-

ment

Terrestrial ecosystemsHuman subsystem

•Habitation•Activities

Drivers•Nutrients (C,N&P)•Sediments•Chemicals

Goods and Services

Environmental loads

Hydrologic Systems•Rivers•Groundwater•Plains•Mountains and Hills

Hydrodynamic Systems•Reefs•Bays•Estuaries

Climate ChangeClimate Change

????Effects of

climate change

The Project ApproachThe Project ApproachGlobal Change Global Change Research ProgramsResearch Programs

The ProjectThe Project

Remote SensingGeographic Information Systems

Field techniquesIntegrated Simulation Modelling

Coastal EcosystemCoastal Ecosystem

StakeholdersStakeholdersGovernment (national and local)Non-governmental organizations(NGOs)Community-based organizations

Global Coral ReefMonitoring Network (GCRMN)

Data and InformationSharing

Data Collection

Needs identificationAssistance in monitoring work

Provision of models,training, technical assistance

Improved protectionthrough monitoring

andimpact assessment

Extrac

tion

of

prod

ucts

Polic

y fo

rmul

atio

ns, c

oord

inat

ion

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

pro

gram

s

Assistance for policy formulation

Logistical support

Dat

a co

llect

ion

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

glob

al/reg

iona

l

mon

itoring

pro

gram

s

Multidisciplinary collaboration

Integrated watershed-coastal ecosystem

approach

Global Change Global Change Research ProgramsResearch Programs

The ProjectThe Project

Remote SensingGeographic Information Systems

Field techniquesIntegrated Simulation Modelling

Coastal EcosystemCoastal Ecosystem

StakeholdersStakeholdersGovernment (national and local)Non-governmental organizations(NGOs)Community-based organizations

Global Coral ReefMonitoring Network (GCRMN)

Data and InformationSharing

Data Collection

Needs identificationAssistance in monitoring work

Provision of models,training, technical assistance

Improved protectionthrough monitoring

andimpact assessment

Extrac

tion

of

prod

ucts

Polic

y fo

rmul

atio

ns, c

oord

inat

ion

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

pro

gram

s

Assistance for policy formulation

Logistical support

Dat

a co

llect

ion

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

glob

al/reg

iona

l

mon

itoring

pro

gram

s

Multidisciplinary collaboration

Integrated watershed-coastal ecosystem

approach

Project ObjectivesProject Objectives

Develop capacity building through workshops on

standardized methods of processing in-situ, remotely-sensed data and environment-

related socio-economic surveys

Strengthen the network of, and reinforce

linkages among coastal scientists and managers

thru shared expertise and resources

Provide an understanding of the

driving/forcing effects of socio -economically -induced changes on

environmental loads to the tropical coastal

ecosystems

Assess human welfare impacts of changes in coastal

resource systems in terms of social costs

and benefits considering different

management strategies

Produce an accurate set of multi-date coastal resource information particular to needs of managing changes in the coastal zone and consistent to allow comparison among systems in the region.

Achieve and apply understanding of the

causes and consequences of present and future

environmental change of tropical ecosystems in management decisionsDevelop capacity building

through workshops on standardized methods of

processing in-situ, remotely-sensed data and environment-

related socio-economic surveys

Strengthen the network of, and reinforce

linkages among coastal scientists and managers

thru shared expertise and resources

Provide an understanding of the

driving/forcing effects of socio -economically -induced changes on

environmental loads to the tropical coastal

ecosystems

Assess human welfare impacts of changes in coastal

resource systems in terms of social costs

and benefits considering different

management strategies

Produce an accurate set of multi-date coastal resource information particular to needs of managing changes in the coastal zone and consistent to allow comparison among systems in the region.

Achieve and apply understanding of the

causes and consequences of present and future

environmental change of tropical ecosystems in management decisions

Project Implementation Project Implementation

Fundamentals of the Project AppoachFundamentals of the Project Appoach

Data and information sharing and disseminationData and information sharing and dissemination(data, information and knowledge base exchange among collaborators and the

public)

Collection and assessment of existing studies and relevant dataCollection and assessment of existing studies and relevant data(changes in the coastal and human impacts in tropical marine ecosystems;

identify information gaps)

Analysis of multiAnalysis of multi--temporal satellite imagestemporal satellite images(to detect changes in land use patterns and coastal habitats)

Assessment and analysis of changesAssessment and analysis of changes(changes in human and natural ecosystems considering hydrologic and

hydrodynamic processes by use of physical and ecological models)

Development of a policyDevelopment of a policy--relevant prognostic modelrelevant prognostic model(environmental quality indicators and optimization technique to valuate

resources and social priorities)

CapacityCapacity--buildingbuilding(joint workshops; decision support tools suited for local management)

Remote Sensing for Coastal EnvironmentsRemote Sensing for Coastal Environments

Path radiance

RadianceIrradiance

Scattering at edge of atmosphere

Specular reflectance

Attenuation due to scattering and absorption

in atmosphere

Further attenuation due to scattering and absorption in water

Further scattering at attenuation at atmosphere

Sensor

•Plants and other vegetation

•People

Seagrasses

Coral reef

Mangroves

Seagrasses

Coral reef

Mangroves

Seagrasses

Coral reef

Mangroves

Seagrasses

Coral reef

Mangroves

Sediment and nutrient (C, N, P

and trace metals)

Sediment and nutrient (C, N, P

and trace metals)

Sediment and nutrient (C, N, P

and trace metals)

Development of seagrass assessment Development of seagrass assessment & monitoring methodology using & monitoring methodology using remote sensingremote sensing

Basis of remote sensing Basis of remote sensing for coastal environments:for coastal environments:••Coral reefsCoral reefs••Mangrove forestMangrove forest••Seagrass bedsSeagrass beds

Expected Outcomes and OutputsExpected Outcomes and OutputsImpacts of changes to coastal ecosystems in East Asia and the Pacific region as depicted in processed multi-temporal imagesStandardized in-situ data collection protocol, uniform

methods for processing remotely-sensed data and socio-economic surveysAn integrated physical and ecological model specific to

assessment of environmental changes in tropical ecosystemsA science-based, user-driven practical decision support

system (DSS) suited for management concerns in coastal zoneA group of coastal scientists in the region proficient in

environmental change evaluation methodsManagers trained in using DSS for tropical coastal

environmentDocumentation and other relevant publications for

promoting provisional and actual use of the integrated model

Impacts of changes to coastal ecosystemsImpacts of changes to coastal ecosystems in East Asia and the Pacific region as depicted in processed multiprocessed multi--temporal temporal imagesimagesStandardizedStandardized in-situ data collection protocoldata collection protocol, uniform uniform

methodsmethods for processing remotely-sensed data and socio-economic surveysAn integrated physical and ecological modelintegrated physical and ecological model specific to

assessment of environmental changes in tropical ecosystemsA science-based, user-driven practical decision support decision support system (DSS)system (DSS) suited for management concerns in coastal zoneA group of coastal scientistscoastal scientists in the region proficient in

environmental change evaluation methodsManagers trainedManagers trained in using DSSDSS for tropical coastal

environmentDocumentationDocumentation and other relevant publicationsrelevant publications for

promoting provisional and actual use of the integrated model