collaborative web, italy. next five years scenarios
DESCRIPTION
My presentation given at Iwordcamp in Milan, Italy 10 may 2008TRANSCRIPT
Marcello del BonoExcept where otherwise noted, content on this presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License 1
Social Media 2008-Betting on the innumerable
futures –
Milan BarCampMay 10, 2008
Marcello del Bono
El tiempo se bifurca perpetuamente hacia innumerables futuros.
J.L Borges
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Main question
What’s the role of Social media in the Italian Economy in the next five
years?
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Where do we start from?- quick assesment -
X
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European Economic growth slowing down…
Source: Eurostat
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… and Italian Economic Growth almost cancelled
Source: Eurostat
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but interactive marketers in USA plan increasing investments despite recession forecast
Via http://www.flickr.com/photos/25131367@N05/2455210628/
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A new political environment(Italy, may 2008)
CAMERA SENATO 46,8% Il Popolo della Libertà, Lega Nord and Movimento per l'autonomia (340 seats)
47,3% Il Popolo della Libertà, Lega Nord and Movimento per l'autonomia (168 seats)
37,5% Partito Democratico and Italia dei Valori (239 seats)
38,0% Partito Democratico and Italia dei Valori (130 seats)
5,6% Unione di Centro (36 seats) 5,7% Unione di Centro (3 seats)
Source: Ministero dell’interno http://politiche.interno.it/ind_poli.htm
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Two speed Italy Vital and active minorities versus a vast, change-
adversed majority not considering any call to action (mucillaggine sociale)
Active minorities Change-adversed majorities Biotech and biogenetic research Fears of genetic research Developing international relations, studying abroad, erasmus, international start-ups
Focus only on the national or local area
Immigration is seen as an opportunity to growth
Stop the barbarians
Looking for new social cohesion in organizations, groups, associations,
Individualism
Source: our elaboration on Censis, “Rapporto Annuale 2007”
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Italy’s Innovation attitude
Source: Innovation scoreboard 2007 – European commission
SII- Innovation Index Rank
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU27DKDEFRITES
• Overall innovation performance below EU average • High efficiency in transforming innovation inputs into Intellectual Property outputs, but a • Lower efficiency in transforming such inputs into Applications outputs
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Internet and Broadband penetration
Online users (>1 during last 7 days), Italy.000
• Broadband penetration 10,1M users, 17,1% of Broadband penetration 10,1M users, 17,1% of population (EU27 average 20%)population (EU27 average 20%)
• Largest mobile market in EULargest mobile market in EU• Online public services above average (11° Online public services above average (11°
position)position)• 34% regular internet user 34% regular internet user • 58% of population have no Internet skills58% of population have no Internet skills
Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Eurisko (via www.Gandalf.it)
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Advertising Investments and Media Usage, Italy
Classical Advertising value /GNPpercentages
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source:Nielsen Media research, IAB; FCP; FIEG
Minutes /day Days/YearTelevision 239 61Internet 58 15
Average usage, year 2006
ADVertising, Italy2006 2007
Adv expenses, .OOO Euros Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Var.%
TOTAL ADV 8.522.611 8.783.486 3,1TV 4.598.777 4.653.482 1,2
Press 3.012.439 3.101.542 3,0RADIO 440.665 476.090 8,0
INTERNET 197.577 281.934 42,7Street 196.963 200.649 1,9
CINEMA (**) 76.190 69.789 -8,4
TV/Internet=4
TV/Internet=17
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Social Networks Market size in Italy- still an underdeveloped market -
Data Source: Datamonitor, eMarketer. Estimates for Italy: our elaboration
World Region %Multiple accounts 2007 230.000.000 ASIA Pacific 35%Single Users 54.000.000 EMEA 28%Revenues 2007, US$ 965.000.000 North America 25%Revenues 2012, U$S 2.000.000.000 Caribbean Latin America 12%
Total 100%SN %Myspace 47,4% North America SNs revenuesFacebook 18,2% North America, 2007 241.250.000 Youtube 5,5% North America, 2012 500.000.000 Orkut 2,1% North America Online AD (US$, 2007) 20.800.000.000 Flickr 7,1% SNs/Internet Ratio 1,16%Daily Motion 2,0%Others 17,6% Estimates for ItalyTotal 100% Online Advertising Revenues 2007, US$ 482.785.000
Soc. Networks Revenues 2007, US$ 5.599.610
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Twitter, microblogging and other animals
Source: Twitterfacts, Hitwise, Twitter.com
Worldwide
Italy
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Building a vision about the italian Social Media Future
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Main drivers
Collaborative tools usage
Gee
ksThe w
hole population
Inside-Out
Outside-In
Com
pani
es m
inds
et
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Scenario Logic
Inside-Out
Outside-In
Gee
ksThe w
hole population
Il GattopardoDrowning in the past
Two-speed tango 2.0 Future
Com
pani
es m
inds
et
Collaborative tools usageX Today
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About me- Marcello del Bono -
He has worked as a Consultant since 1990 in Big 4 consultancies, Media and Television companies and as a free lance.
He has an MBA-Master of Business Administration awarded by the SDA Bocconi's School of Management in Milan, a Master in International Marketing and Trade, a Political Science-Economics Degree from the University of Milan. He is also internationally qualified as a Programme Manager and Project Manager.
He is looking for digital companies willing to be helped on Marketing and Business Development processes in Italy or across the world.
Web www.2pm.it/en Linkedin http://www.linkedin.com/in/marcellodelbonoBlog http://ottovas.blogspot.com/ Twitter http://twitter.com/otto_vaske-Mail marcello_delbono @ yahoo.it