college of engineering discovery with purpose iowa state university wesep reu june 11, 2012 wind...

College of Engineering

Discovery with Purpose www.engineering.iastate.edu

Iowa State University WESEP REUJune 11, 2012

Wind & energyJames McCalley ([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]


Homework

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DOE20by2030 report:•Full report:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/41869.pdf •Summary

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/49975.pdf

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/41869.pdf




Overview (focus mainly on US)• Preliminary energy concepts• Background on wind power

growth• Policy issues for wind energy• Wind energy in context• Grand challenge questions

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Some preliminaries• Power: MW=1341HP.• Energy: MWhr=3.413MMbtu (106btu); 1btu=1055joules• E=P×T• Run 1.5 MW turbine at 1.5 MW for 2 hrs: 3 MWhrs.• Run 1.5 MW turbine at 0.5 MW for 2 hrs: 1MWhrs

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Power, P Time, T Energy, ECapacity, Prated

T

P(t)dtE0

Time, t

Power, P(t)1.5 MW

8760

8760

0

ratedP

P(t)dt

CF

• If P varies with t: • Capacity factor:

A lawnmower engine is 3HP (2.2kW or 0.0022 MW).Typical car engine is 200 HP (150kw or 0.15MW).Typical home demands 1.2kW at any given moment, on avg. 1MW=106watts106w/1200w=833 homes powered by a MW.Ames peak demand is about 126MW.The US has 1,121,000MW of power plant capacity.

1 gallon gasoline=0.0334MWhr; Typical home uses 11000kWhrs=11MWhrs in 1 year (about 1.2kW×8760hrs).1 ton coal=6MWhrs.

Actual annual energy production as a percentage of annual energy production at Prated


Worldwide

Source: RenewableS 2011, Global Status Report5


Worldwide

Source: BTM Consultants, www.btm.dk/reports/world+market+update+2010

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Background on Wind Energy in US

US Generation mix

Wind & renewables are 3.6% by energy.

Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 7


Background on Wind Energy in USU.S. Annual & CumulativeWind Power Capacity Growth


But what happened in 2010, 2011?



Source: AWEA 2011 Fourth Quarter Market Report9

2010 is different! And 2011 is not much better. Why?


Why was wind growth in 2010/2011 less than in previous years?

Poor 2008-2009 economy:• Less willingness to load, to build projects• Less power demand!

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Declining natural gas prices



Percentage of New Capacity Additions.


N. GASWIND


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Cur US/Can nat gas production= 26Tcf/yrProven reserves=260Tcf: R/P=10yrsProve+unprove reserves=2372Tcf: R/P=91


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Risks of a very high gas-electric future:•Lifetime: Infrastructure investments live for 40-60 years and are not easy to “turn” once developed. •Diversification:

Today’s national energy system portfolio consists primarily of electric (coal, nuclear, gas, renewables), heating/industrial (gas), & transportation (petroleum). A high gas-electric future, with transportation electrification, will decrease portfolio diversification, creating a national vulnerability.

•Cost: Is heavy gas-electric investment the lowest cost option in terms of long-term {investment+production}?•Depletability: R/P ratios 10-90 yrs - what will be price effects as gas depletes?•Fracking: How much will public resistance grow?•CO2 emissions: Will coal-to-gas shift reduce it enough?

Alternative future: •Reduce coal in electric sector while growing gas & pipelines equally with wind+electric transmission. Co-optimize gas pipeline & electric transmission.•Replace significant petroleum for light-duty vehicles with CNG vehicles & PHEVs.•Conjecture: This approach will reduce CO2 more than a high gas-electric approach and will result in greater diversification of energy resources.


Top 20 states

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Source: AWEA 2011 Third Quarter Market Report

14 of top 20 are in the interior of the nation. Top 3 coastal states are West. East coast is light on wind but heavy on load.Implication?

3 options for East coast use of wind:Build high cost inland wind, go offshore, or use transmission to move it from Midwest


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Source: AWEA 2012 First Quarter Market Report

U.S. Wind Power Capacity By State



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Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report

Source: AWEA Wind Power Outlook 2010



Market share of total 2008 wind installations




Ownership by company and by regulated utility




Wind plant size


College of EngineeringBackground on Wind Energy in US

29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)



Tax incentives

• Federal Incentives:• Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA• 2.2 cents per kw-hr PTC for 10 yrs or 30% investment tax credit (ITC)

• State incentives:• IA: 1.5¢/kWhr for small wind, 1¢/kWhr for large wind• Various other including sales & property tax reductions

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College of EngineeringFederal energy policy (don’t have one)

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• In congress, “Energy bill” means Federal RPS, and “Climate bill” means CO2 emissions control.

• Waxman-Markey Energy/Climate bill passed house 6/09. Climate part was “Cap and Trade.”

• Related Kerry-Graham Climate bill did not pass Senate.• 2010 Carbon Limits & Energy For America’s Renewal, CLEAR

Act (Sen Collins/Cantwell), “Cap & Refund”• Cap CO2 “upstream” via sales of coal, gas, petroleum

• Producers/importers buys CO2 permits in monthly auction• 3/4 of auction revenues refunded to US citizens

• Congressional attention died; Climate/energy bill non-issue in pres. campaigns

• 7/11 EPA rules “Cross-State Air Pollution Rule” (CSAPR, for SO2, NOx), “Mercury/Air Toxics Standards” (MATS) have more effect, causing near-term power plant shut-down, but CSAPR stayed on 12/30/11 by US Court of Appeals, DC Circuit.



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Grand Challenge Question For Energy:

What investments should be made, how much, when, and where, at the national level, over the next 40 years, to achieve a sustainable, low cost, and resilient energy & transportation system?

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NUCLEAR

GEOTHERMALSOLAR

WindBIOMASS

CLEAN-FOSSIL

Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect?


Grand Challenges For Wind:1. Move wind energy from

where it is harvested to where it can be used

2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid.

3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues).

4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture.

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Wind vs. people

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How to address grand challenges

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#1. Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used.• Transmission

• Eastern interconnection Midwest to East coast• National Superhighways at 765 kV AC and/or 600/800 kV DC

• Right of way (rail, interstate highwys, existing transmission)• Cost allocation• Organizational nightmare

• Conductor technologies: overhead/underground, materials

• Offshore, lower CF turbines, higher turbines, but all of these result in higher cost of energy

College of EngineeringHow to address grand challenges

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NETPLAN: multiperiod, multiobjective, multisector

Investments mainly in renewables with some nuclear.

Flow is west to east.Highest trans cap investment is MAIN (4) to ECAR (1) because: •CF (0.5 in MAIN, 0.3 in ECAR)•Load is very high in ECARHigh trans cap investment from SPP (10) to STV (9) because:•CF (0.4 in SPP, 0.1 in STV)•Load is very high in STV

CPLEX LP inside evolutionary program; co-optimizes generation, transmission, gas pipelines to minimize 40 year investment+production costs, network flow.



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#2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accom-modate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid.• Variability:

• Increase gas turbines• Wind turbine control• Load control• Storage (pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheels, batteries, others)• Increase geodiversity

• Uncertainty:• Decrease it: improve forecasting uncertainty• Handle it better: Develop UC decisions robust to wind pwr uncertainty



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#3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment/maint costs, increase operating revenues).• Investment: Improve manufacturing/supply chain processes, construction, collection circuit layout, interconnection cost, land lease, and financing• Operating & maintenance:

• Improve monitoring/evaluation for health assessment/prediction/life-ext• Decrease maintenance costs (gearbox vs. direct-drive)

• Enhance energy extraction from wind per unit land area• Improved turbine siting• Inter-turbine and inter-farm control• Increased efficiency of drive-train/generator/converters• Lighter, stronger materials and improved control of rotor blades• Taller turbines


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Wind turbine down-time distribution

Reference: McMillan and Ault, “Quantification of Condition Monitoring Benefit for Offshore Wind Turbines,” 2007.



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#4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, visual/audible, impact on agriculture.• Migratory birds and bats: mainly a siting issue for birds. Bat-kill is more frequent.•Agriculture: Agronomists indicate wind turbines may help!• Visual: a sociological issue

These issues have not been significant yet. Today, in Iowa, there are ~2600 turbines, with capacity 4200 MW. At 2 MW/turbine, a growth to 60 GW would require 30000 turbines, and assuming turbines are located only on cropland having class 3 or better winds (about 1/6 of the state), this means these regions would see, on average, one turbine every 144 acres.

college of engineering discovery with purpose iowa state university wesep reu june 11, 2012 wind...

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