colliding worlds workshop slides (anton musgrave)
TRANSCRIPT
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Colliding Worlds Workshop with Anton Musgrave
#SMEleaders16
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Anton MusgraveSenior Partner
FutureWorld Internationalwww.FutureWorld.org
Dublin2 December 2016
Colliding Worlds
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H o w t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e c h a n g i n g w o r l d
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CollisionsHow we live
How we interact with each other With our environment
And how we do business
With massive implications
digital business!
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Many collisions ahead!
Linear vs. exponential Predictability vs. chaos Physical vs. virtual Legacy vs. speed People vs. machines Ownership vs. access Capitalism vs. shared
wealth
Shareholders vs. ecosystems Jobs vs. creative entrepreneurship Rules vs. flexibility Constraints vs. abundance Fossil fuels vs. renewables Reality vs. dreams West vs. East Tanks and guns vs. Code Reality vs. AI and VR
and MANY more
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Andanother collision!
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I wish things were like they used to be
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Entire industries wither and die
Theworld'slastVCRfactorycloseditsdoors onlylastmonth.
Digitaladvertisingissettoovertakethe$200-billionTVmarket
AndGoogleandFacebookalreadycontrol72%...thenewmonopolies?
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India sets world record by launching 20 satellites in a single mission
Tesla may manufacture its electric cars in India
Just thinkBut new industries blossom
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Strategic Choices
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Its about FOCUS!Looking in the wrong directionAsking the wrong questions
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Understand Your Future Context
Your current future
Today Market Forces Evolutionary innovation
Courageous innovation
Analog, Linear, Dumb
Business of Today
Digital, Exponential,
Cognitive Business of Tomorrow
Decline without fast,
radical innovation
What is YOUR future readiness?
What is your digital IQ/EQ?
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Our World
New World
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Friction = Legacysystems, people and
thinking!
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Wedidntdoanythingwrong,butsomehow,
welostStephenElop,CEO,Nokia
whenNokiawasacquiredbyMicrosoft
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Yes, they did do something wrong
THEY MISS THE FUTURE!what is that future really going to be?
AND HOW DO WE CREATE IT?
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Whatisthis?
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"Inthe2030s,wearegoingtosendnano-robotsintothebrainthatwillprovidefullimmersionvirtualrealityfrom
withinthenervoussystemandwillconnectourneo-cortextothecloud.
RayKurzweil October,2015
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Thoroughly unbelievable futures
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What is YOUR deepest thinking groove?
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
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Organisation
Leadership
Partnerships
The Environment
Business today
Our Markets
The Environment
Our Markets
Strategic Thinking & Strategic ActionTM
Business Tomorrow
Today Future
Strategic Inputs
Strategic Actions
PoliticalSocialEconomic
Technology
A process for learning from
the future
The
10%Rule
Give us 10% of your time to create a process for choosing
your future.
Needs
Unique valueWinners/Losers
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Waypoints today
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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Waypoints
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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The Computer Revolution
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
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Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution
A fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines
between the physical, digital
and biological worlds
the new neweconomics of digital business
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Bio- and Nanotechnology Cognitive Neuroscience Synthetic Biology & Biomimicry Artificial Intelligence Big Data & Advanced Analytics Virtual, Augmented & Mixed Reality Neural and Quantum Computing
Driving costs downOpening new global markets
Creating new industriesChallenging incumbents
New sciences and technologies
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Imagine a world where EVERYONE and EVERYTHING
is connected
Ubiquitous connectivity
Over to Facebook
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Connected, virtual, intelligent everything!
From www toWeb of the whole, wide
worldwwww!
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It's just insane!
The 'LUDICROUS' button has just been launched!
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When your self-driving car has a bank account
$$$$
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Cars today: parked 96% of the time 1/3 of urban land for parking In dense cities (e.g. Los Angeles) up to 60% EIGHT parking spaces per car in use 13% of the avg home for parking vehicles
JUST THINK OF THE POSSIBILITIES!
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We have reached peak cars as we know them!
BUTwhat does this mean?
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Energy internet managed by the blockchain
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Energy tipping point
Renewable energy overtakes coalnow the world's largest installed power source
500,000 solar panels installed every day
Key technologies are hydro, solar and wind
Source: International Energy Agency 2016 World Energy Outlook
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Exponential ThinkingFacebook: creates no content
Uber: owns no carsAirbnb: owns no roomsAlibaba: keeps no stock
Whatsapp: owns no serversApple: owns no factoriesNetflix: owns no cinemas
Game changers: Fast new models
Legacy ThinkingLarge and clunkyMassive overhead
Thousands of peopleTrained in out-dated methods!
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AI / Machine Learning / Big Data
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Machines vs Humans
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"There is no single human skill that
cannot be done by robots or Artificial
Intelligence"
Whew! Thankfully, we're not factory workers
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A universal wage for all?
As AI and robotics develop, so jobs are disappearing. How will humans live without work?
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VR = New human experiences?
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Combinatorial innovation explodes
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Ubiquitous connectivity
Internet of everything
Big, deep & dark data
Artificial Intelligence, VR & IoTSmart robotics
Self learning systems
Fractal free energy
Smart Life
Man vs. Machine
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Waypoints
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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The human revolution
Genomics, neural prosthetics, augmentation
Longer life New human relevance
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Big issues to comebut do you remember Test tube babies?
Privacy and the right to be forgotten Digital ethics Terrorism, torture and crime Government intervention looms
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THREE BILLION new minds will join the global economy in next
10 years
Tens of $trillions in emerging buying power
And a new internet-empowered entrepreneurial class
Game changers: Scale
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Can we deal with them?
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They ARE different!
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What about YOUR kids?
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Future Auditors?
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Its 2026.What do they really want.how do they operate...how do
they buy? Lessons for us?
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Waypoints
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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The new world is Exponentially different
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Not negotiable!
Are you ready to operate in this world?
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Naked Leadership
Life in a Fishbowl: The Challenge of an Open and Transparent Marketplace
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Living in Exponential times2035
2016
1995
1795
You are here -------->
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Many vs. the Experts
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Toxic assumptions in Cokes business?
Discuss some core toxic assumptions in your 2016 thinking?
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Discuss the KEY strategic enablers of exponential change in Irish
businesses.
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Your feet are on fire!
The 21st Century Corporation? Open, frictionless world Ideas flow freelyso does capital! New competitors and markets New relationships & ecosystems!
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Waypoints
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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Purposemustbepartofouroperatingmodel.Everybrandmustbecomeacause,asocialmovement womensesteemwithDove,
hygienewithLifebouy- PaulPolman,CEOUnilever
DeviseaStrongPurpose
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Be careful of yesterdays experts
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Dream #workrevolution!
Is it insightful?Is it exponential?Is it disruptive?
Is it aspirational?
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What Characteristics Create Value?
RationalAnalysis
ReductionistLinear
IntuitiveSynthesisHolistic
Nonlinear
Source: Based on the thinking of Fritjof Capra The Web of Life 1996
Mechanistic World
Thinking
Strategy
ConservationCooperation
QualityPartnership
ExpansionCompetition
QuantityDomination
Systemic/Fractal World
How does your net worth stack up?As an individual? As a business?
How do you evolve these new attitudes?
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ENGAGE
ENABLE
INSPIREREWARD
Four steps to build The Leader of the Future
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Relevance of Future leaders Key leadership attributes to ensure 2026
relevance? Skills Attitudes Diversity Future readiness Future fit Core Behaviours ????
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Action ScenariosTM
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Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
ELEPHANT AND CROUCHING TIGER
INDIAIn the 21st Century
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Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Low Economic Growth High
Higher Government Intervention Lower
Low Economic Incentives High
Low Environmental Focus High
Higher Ethnic Conflicts Lower
Key Strategic Drivers/Dilemmas
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Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Scenario MatrixParadise Found
Government actively drives growth, infrastructure and regional
integration. Urban and rural populations absorbed into booming economy. World leader in services, biotech and health care. Active and
positive role in world politics.
Unfulfilled DreamGovernment thrusts into
economic liberation thwarted by a dull world economy and reduced
consumer demand. Political turmoil follows poor economic
performance.
Mega-Slums Government's increasingly socialist policies kill economic growth. Poverty expands and major businesses leave their research facilities and unemployment leads to unrest.
Business DepartsIndia becomes increasingly isolated from a growing world economy. Government controls increase and infrastructure crumbles. Mobile Indian diaspora establish businesses elsewhere.
Flat
W
orld
Eco
nom
y B
oom
ing
Conflict Government/Business Synergy
?
?The Future of India
?
?
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Action ScenariosTM
Discuss and agree the 6 key
drivers/forces shaping the 2026future of Irish business
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Understanding our strategic choices
Characteristic 2.
Characteristic 4Characteristic 3
Characteristic 1Characteristic 1
Low
D
river
1
Hig
h
Low Driver 2 High
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?The Future
of .
?
?
Likely Future
Ideal Future
Contin-gency
Contin-gency
Contin-gency
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Key Insights for YOUR business?
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Waypoints
Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.
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Strategy in 3 Pics!
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The Digital IQ and EQ of your business?
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WHY would I talk about you? When and how would I talk about you?
Do I care enough about you? Is your business visible?
Is your business incredibly useful? What stories would I tell?
Is YOUR business contagious?Contagious: Jonah Berger
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Telling the storya passionate purpose
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Enable Humanness
AwarenessMysteryEmotionSerendipityStoriesRelationshipsCreativityDesignHumourFun
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Business of Today
SWOT
Competitor AnalysisConstraintsRules
Business of Tomorrow
Understand the future contextDefine a new gameOpportunitiesCreativity
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Linear BusinessTop-down, bureaucratic and
hierarchicalDriven by financial outcomes
Innovation from withinRisk intolerant
Processes are fixed and inflexible
Strategy by extrapolating from the past
Exponential BusinessNetworked, fast, agile and open
Driven by a Massively Transformative Purpose
Collaboration and partnershipHigh risk appetite, fail fastProcesses outsourced and
market-responsiveBig vision and short-term course
correction
Which do you want to be?
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I have a spread-sheet!I have a budget!I have a strategy!
Martin Luther King
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Your future is journey and it is a matter of choice NOT chance!
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The Future is Ours!
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[email protected]#antonmus
www.mindbullets.netwww.futureworld.org
Thank you!
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