colombia v08 ak ar 12042018 · 2018-04-30 · tu#berlin#–wip andrea#ruizlopez,#alexandra#krumm...

TU Berlin – WIPAndrea Ruiz Lopez, Alexandra Krumm

Sustainability Week April 13, 2018

The Potential of Solar Energy and Prosumage in Colombia

Andrea Ruiz Lopez, Alexandra Krumm, Nora Oberländer, Lukas Schattenhofer

Sustainability WeekTU Berlin, April 13, 2018

Technische Universität Berlin – Faculty VII (School of Economics and Management) – Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy

- 1 -TU Berlin – WIPAndrea Ruiz Lopez, Alexandra Krumm


1) Introduction and Current Situation 2) Solar Energy in Colombia

i. Potential of Solar Energy

ii. Regulatory Framework

3) Prosumage - Modeli. Model description and input data

ii. Model results

4) Expert Elicitation5) Conclusion

Agenda


Sustainability Week April 13, 2018- 2 -

Colombia - General Data

Republic of Colombia – Key data

1World Bank 2017 3AHK 20172UN News 2017

49.46 million (2018)1

1,8 metric tons per capita(2014) (Germany: : 8.89metric tons per capita)1

97,8% (2014)1

USD 5,805 (2016)1

• Slowly growing economy in the past years3

• Peace agreement between FARC and thegovernment in 20152

Population

Emissions

Electrificationrate

GDP

Source: Colombia Maps (2018).



Colombia heavily depends on volatile hydro power and coal exports

38%

14%

41%

4%3%

1%

Primary Energy Production (2015)

70%

8%

16%

2%4%

Electricity generation (2015)

• Primary energy production: 93% fossil fuels• 65% of primary energy production gets exported, mainly coal àmajor economic factor

• Electricity generation: 70% hydropower, followed by natural gas

General insights • Market dependence on exports of fossil fuels• high share of volatile hydropower and El Niňo:

shortage in energy supply and more use of fossilfuels during El Nňo

Resulting problems

Source: UPME (2016).







ii. Model results


Agenda



High Potential of Solar Energy in Colombia

• average day solar irradiation of 4.5 kWh/m2

• federal states La Guajira and La Orinoquia 6.0 kWh/m2 per day

High solar radiation

= Non-Interconnected Zones• Characteristics of these areas:

• intermittent energy services• poverty and diverse ethnic communities• dominated by diesel generators with a share of 90% andlittle renewable energy (10%)

ZNIs – immense potential

Source: SolarGis (2018); AHK (2017).

• Divided in 6 residential sectors + industrial sector• Tariffs according to the social status and the current spot price

SNI – interconnected system



Overview - Regulatory Framework and Policies

1994: Law 142 and 143

Cornerstone for a change in the energy sector:Law 142: Public Services LawLaw 143: Electrical Lawà Unbundling of the energy sector

„Renewable energy law“:à Basis for new regulations andprograms to promote and supportinvestments in RES

2000: Law 633

2001: Law 697

2002: Law 788

2014: Law 1715

1995: „Plan de Desarolla Nacional de lasEnergías Alternativas“

2003: PROURE

2010: PROURE IndicativeAction Plam

2015: NDCCOP21

NDC goal: reduce emissions by 20%, or by30% if international support is provided, until2030

2017: Decree 348

Regulating installation of renewableenergy and solar power systems for self-consumption (up to 100kW)à easing the process of grid-connectionand organizing the regulation for sellingsurplus

Source: UPME (2015a); Minminas and UPME (2018); AHK (2017); Minminas (2010).







ii. Model results


Agenda



Prosumage Model

• Blue squares represent data input• Each module (grey circles) processes different

datasetso Consumption Model: computes hourly energyconsumption of households

o Battery Meter: combination with current producedenergy to decide if it should be used immediately,stored or fed into the grid

o System Price Calculator: estimates installationcosts of different system configurations

o Economic Evaluation: combines fixed costs andthe data from previous modules to compute theinternal rate of return (IRR)

Description

Source: Eissler et al. (2017).



Input data

Specific data for Colombian households

• Electricity prices: 0.16 €/kWh• in Bogota and La Guajira• FITs taken from literature: 1.27 €/kWh

for Bogota and 0.99 €/kWh for LaGuajira

• Panel price in average: 0.748 €/Wp

• Storage and inverter prices areconsidered to be worldwideconsistent

• Interest rate for loans: 10.87%

Source: Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (2013), Morales Sánchez (2013), Aristizábal et al. (2014), Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (2016)



Results – Profitability optimum in Bogota

• Without FIT: highest IRR 17.66% at 3.5 kWp

• With FIT: 104.54% at 10 kWp

• High impact on PV system size due to overproportioned FIT• Storage in both cases not profitable

Scenario 1a: without FIT Scenario 1b: with FIT of 1.27 €/kWp



Results – Profitability comparison with La Guajira

• Without FIT: highest IRR of 19.27% at 4 kWp

• With FIT: 35% IRR at 10 kWp

• High insolation increases profitability, storage couldbe included

Scenario 2a: without FIT Scenario 2b: with FIT of 0.99 €/kWp







ii. Model results


Agenda



• 12 participants (return rate of 12%)

• Questions on the expansion of renewableenergy in general and special focus onsolar power

Expert Elicitation – Barriers

Area of Experts

Industry:5

Politics:2

Academic:2

Government:3

Survey - Potential for renewable energy in Colombia

12%

50%

13%

25%Profitability

Corruption

Political Instability

Taxes

Problems in the broader implementation of solar power:

Barriers for international investorsto invest in the solar energymarket:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Expensive

No work experience

low costs of hydro power generation

not enough will or public interest

not enough politival incentives

the investments are very little



Expert Elicitation - Possible Future Steps

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Public educationPolitical will

More tax incentivesAttracting international investorsDifferent Regulatory Framework

Most important steps towards a renewable energy transformation:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Power Purchase AgreementsSubsidies

Feed-In-TariffTax reduction Net Metering

Cheap grants and bank loans

Most useful regulatory instruments to increase solar power:

• Overall agreement that there is a need for more RES to diversify the energy mix

• Particularly, in ZNIs solar power has high potential

• Discrepancy between government experts and experts from the industry regarding the effectiveness of the current laws and programs

• There is a need for more incentives, e.g. FIT or tax incentives

• More education and political will as a key factor for a transition

• Currently there are few big players, opening the energy market for more participants






3) Prosumage - Modeli. Model description and Input data

ii. Model results


Agenda



Conclusion

• The government set a cornerstone for theexpansion of RES, particularly with the law 1715as a basis for new regulations, e.g. FIT.

• High irradiation entails high potential of solarenergy in Colombia and a chance to diversifythe energy mix.

• Prosumage could be an option for Colombia inthe future to improve the stability of the grid andreduce its GHG emissions once the regulatoryframework is set and storage prices havedecreased.

• Further incentives for prosumers andcommitment to diversify the energy mix throughsolar power is needed.

Yumbo power plant by Celsia



Key references

AHK. 2017. “Zielmarktanalyse Kolumbien 2017 - Off-Grid: Energieversorgung in Netzfernen Gebieten (Bioenergie, Solarenergie, Windenergie Und Smart-Grid) Mit Profilen Der Marktakteure.” Bogota.https://www.german-energy solutions.de/GES/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Marktanalysen/2017/zma_kolumbien_2017_off -grid.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2.

Gobierno de Colombia. 2015. „Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)“. http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Colombia/1/Colombia%20iNDC%20Unofficial%20translation%20Eng.pdf.

Minminas. 2010. „PROURE - Program for Rational and Efficient Energy Use and Non-Conventional Energy Sources in Colombia“. Bogota.https://www.minminas.gov.co/documents/10180/558752/Proure_English.pdf/cca18348-a31b-4b08-905c-aeea3cc92149.

———. 2015. „Plan de Expansión de Generación-Transmisión 2015-2029“. Bogota. http://www1.upme.gov.co/Paginas/Plan-Expansion-2015-2029.aspx#googtrans/gl/en.

Minminas, und UPME. 2016. „Invierta y Gane con Energía - Guía prática para la aplicación delon incentivos tributarios de la Ley 1715 de 2014“. Bogotá. http://www1.upme.gov.co/Documents/Cartilla_IGE_Incentivos_Tributarios_Ley1715.pdf.

———. 2018. “Incentivos Tributarios -Ley 1715 de 2014 Informe No.2.”. Bogota. www1.upme.gov.co/Documents/Energias%20renovables/Incentivos%20Ley%201715%20-%202018/InformeNo2_Fecha_Corte_28Feb2018_P%C3%A1gina_Web.pdf.

UPME. 2015a. „Integración de las energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia“. Bogotá.www.upme.gov.co%2FEstudios%2F2015%2FIntegracion_Energias_Renovables%2FINTEGRACION_ENERGIAS_RENOVANLES_WEB.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3Gh1E0CphDX4tddSC4dsLq.

———. 2015b. „PLAN ENERGETICO NACIONAL COLOMBIA: IDEARIO ENERGÉTICO 2050“.Bogota.www.upme.gov.co/docs/pen/pen_idearioenergetico2050.pdf.

———. 2016. „BOLETÍN ESTADÍSTICO DEMINAS Y ENERGÍA 2012 – 2016“. Bogota. www.upme.gov.co/Boletines/Boletin_Estadistico_2012_2016.pdf.




Thank you for your attention!





Backup slides




Data for consumption model



Results – further scenarios

• Net-metering (bill credit): FIT equals thecost of electricity

• Without FIT:• Electricity price in ZNIs: 0.50€/kWh