Sometimes theweathermanis right!

Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com

Meteorologist Joel Gratz

ActiveJunky.com

Wolf Creek, COMonday, December 31, 2012

“My wife and I chased the last storm to Wolf Creek. By mid morning there were double digits and it was a full on powder day. We couldn’t get enough. Your forecast lead us to face shots...” - Mike V.

ActiveJunky.com

ActiveJunky.com

ActiveJunky.com

“...then another storm will likely move up from the southwest on Monday (December 31st) and could target the southern San Juans with good snow (Durango, Silverton, Wolf Creek).”

ActiveJunky.com

12/25/12Tuesday

12/31/13Monday

FOR

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AS

T

WO

LF C

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EK

P

OW

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R!

+ 6 days

It’s not fun to miss a powder day

1960

2005

1) Remove mystery ofColorado weather.

How this presentation will help you:

2) How to use weatherto increase your business.

Hi, I’m Joel Gratz.

I grew up in Pennsylvania,ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.

And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.

And it made me mad!

Dec 2007 28 people email list

2008-2009 500 people email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share.

Big Weather(primary care doctor)

(knee surgeon)

Actual Storm Track

16 Day Forecast

15 Day Forecast

14 Day Forecast

13 Day Forecast

12 Day Forecast

11 Day Forecast

10 Day Forecast

9 Day Forecast

8 Day Forecast

7 Day Forecast

6 Day Forecast

5 Day Forecast

4 Day Forecast

3 Day Forecast

2 Day Forecast

1 Day Forecast

Actual Storm Track

Storm

Front Range Flood

\

Front Range Flood

Denver

Boulder

Longmont

Loveland

Ft Collins

Estes Park

Weather is not magic. It’s physics.

Forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are getting better every year. Study them, don’t dismiss them.

Long range forecasts stink!

We cannot reliably predict snow accumulationsbeyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.

But, we can lookfor clues aboutsnow during the upcoming winter.

Just don’t get too excited. Or depressed.

This is where we look for El Nino or La Nina.

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Storm tracks for La Nina.

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Storm tracks for El Nino.

But it is (probably) a La Nada.

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Storm tracks for La Nada.

Perhaps there’s another clue.

We set a snowfall record in April and a rainfall record in September for Boulder. Does this tell us anything about winter snow in the mountains?

It just might be a great winter.

Each line shows amount of snow on the ground for various weather stations, during winters after heavy precipitation in Boulder.

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 April 1

It snowed in Aspen during September.

Of the past 22 Septembers with snow, 19 of the

ensuing winters have been average or above.

- Cory Gates, AspenWeather.net

Weather happens when moist air

gets high

1 2 3

Where’s the moisture?

Lots of moisture(ocean source)

Less moisture(land source)

OK moisture(ocean + plants)

Orographics get air high

Mountains = Precipitation

Indian Peaks / RMNP

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito

Favorable wind directions

Wolf Creek

Silverton

Telluride

Powderhorn Crested Butte

AspenVail

Summit Co.

SteamboatRMNP

VailJanuary 31, 2013

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm

Moi

stur

e in

the

air

Temperature >> colder

10F 0F

The best snow requires...

• Lots of moisture

• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

• Not too much wind

Wind directions?Complicated.What about radar?

Nope. There’s a problem...

Jamming the Radar

Overshooting the Snow

0.5 deg

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Denver Airport

PuebloGrandMesa

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Telluride

Wolf Creek

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

4.8 mile resolution

2.4 mile resolution

4.8 mile resolution

2.4 mile resolution

Weather & Tourism: Trends

• More educated consumers, weather is a big factor.

• Weather is not just a consideration but a driver of bookings.

Weather & Tourism: How-to

• Create customer segments based on weather sensitivity.

• What can this accomplish?

Weather & Tourism: Repeats

35%

80%

Tipping point5-9 uses

See more insights on the blog at RyanSolutions.com

What are we doing well?

• Educating the audience & putting the weather into their (fun!) context.

• 85% returning visitor rate.

Apps coming in November!

We need your help...

• We’re a young, local business and...

• We’re doing something right, but would love your help to identify how we can positively impact the industry.

How to plan

7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days

Joel Gratzjoel@opensnow.com

OpenSnow.com/about/cto