comerica regional economic update - texas a&m university...san antonio msa is a comerica...

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factual information.

Energy Prices Hammering San Antonio’s Economy The San Antonio metropolitan area faces significant headwinds from the steep fall in energy prices. Some en-

ergy companies, especially with elevated debt levels and less capital, are finding themselves in the midst of a precarious situation, possibly heading towards bankruptcy. With oil price hedges already expired or expiring soon, many have been forced to radically reduce capital expenditures. According to Baker Hughes, the oil rig count in the Eagle Ford Basin fell by 63 percent year-over-year to 53 by mid-February 2016. If the energy pric-es stay below $30/barrel for a long time, the San Antonio area will see an outmigration of former energy workers and their families, thereby adding more salt to the injury.

However, the story is not that bad for the region’s oil refining companies like Valero Energy and Tesoro Corp, which are benefitting from lower input costs. Likewise, consumers are saving money at gas pumps as gas pric-es hit generational lows. The area’s natural gas industry is poised to benefit as the U.S. increases exports of natural gas to Latin America, Europe and Asia in the next 16 months according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas rig counts increased from one in late January to five in mid-February, although year-over-year natural gas rig counts are down by 74 percent in the Eagle Ford region. The presence of refin-eries, pipelines and storage tanks in the proximity of Eagle Ford, along with the growing tourism and health care industries are key supporters to the area’s economy, even in the energy-distressed era.

Until now, the San Antonio area’s real estate market has remained solid, mainly fueled by the robust single-family home market activity. The area’s year-over-year home sales grew by seven percent in January with a median home price appreciation rate of around five percent. The San Antonio’s multifamily market remained relatively weak in 2015Q4, with an overall apartment occupancy rate of 94 percent and multifamily housing starts declining by 39 percent year-over-year. We expect the area’s housing prices and rent growth to moder-ate in 2016, as jobs and incomes suffer from lower energy prices.

February 18, 2016

4Q'15a 1Q'16f 2Q'16f 3Q'16f 4Q'16f 1Q'17f 2Q'17f 3Q'17f 2015a 2016f 2017f

Labor and Demographics

Payroll Jobs (Thousands) 995 998 1002 1007 1013 1018 1024 1029 981 1005 1026

Percent Change Annualized 4.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 3.5 2.5 2.1

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.2

Population (Thousands) 2395 2404 2412 2421 2430 2438 2446 2455 2380 2417 2451


Net Migration (Thousands) 5.6 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 24.9 18.7 18.9

Personal Income

Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) 103098 104192 105331 106521 107901 109393 110910 112411 101564 105986 111657


Housing

Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) 8408 8196 8308 8413 8514 8621 8722 8814 7914 8358 8767

Percent Change Annualized 48.0 -9.7 5.6 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.3 -14.0 5.6 4.9

SF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) 6627 6523 6621 6713 6800 6882 6960 7027 6377 6664 6991

MF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) 1782 1673 1686 1699 1715 1739 1762 1788 1537 1693 1775

House Prices, FHFA (1995 Q1=100, NSA) 265 268 271 275 278 281 285 288 260 273 287

Year/Year Percent Change 9.1 5.1 4.0 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 8.6 4.9 4.9

Bankruptcies

Total Business (12 Months Ending) 158 152 154 156 160 163 166 168 150 156 167

Total Personal (12 Months Ending) 2676 2676 2699 2846 2902 2867 2834 2805 2638 2781 2832

San Antonio MSA Economic Outlook

a = actual f = forecast

San Antonio MSA is a Comerica Economics designation of the San Antonio-New Braunfels metropolitan statistical area (MSA), as defined by the Office of Management and Budget

(OMB). The 2010 OMB definition of the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA consists of Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina and Wilson counties.








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SA Job Growth to Cool Off

San Antonio

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls,

Year/Year Percent Change

Source: BLS, Comerica Bank

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Home Price Growth Moderates

San Antonio

U.S.

Source: FHFA, Comerica Bank

FHFA Home Price Index,


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Income Growth Moderates

San Antonio

U.S.

Source: BEA, Comerica Bank

Personal Income,


2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

130

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230

280

330

2009

:Q1

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Bankruptcies Tick Up Business Bankruptcies,

Total 12-Mos. Ending

Source: U.S. District Courts,

Comerica Bank

Personal (R)

Business (L)

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Housing Starts to Moderate

San Antonio (L)

U.S., ths (R)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Comerica Bank

Total Housing Starts,

Annual Rate

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Unemployment Stabilizes in 2016

U.S.

San Antonio


Unemployment Rate,

Percent








San Antonio’s Economy Continues to Moderate The San Antonio area, being the staging ground for Eagle Ford Shale development, is under significant eco-

nomic pressure due to falling energy prices. As the profitability of less productive wells diminished, rig counts for both oil and natural gas fell. According to Baker Hughes, oil rig counts were down by an astounding 68 percent and natural gas rig counts were down by 15 percent by early November 2015 compared to a year pri-or in the Eagle Ford Basin. On the other hand, new well oil production per rig rose to nearly 800 barrels per day in the Basin, thereby contributing increased crude oil supply and further downward pressure on prices. With drilling activity substantially down in the region, both energy and non-energy jobs are at risk.

Despite the difficulties, the San Antonio metropolitan region managed to create more than 11,600 nonfarm payroll jobs in the third quarter of 2015 after a soft second quarter. More than 10,000 of those jobs came from the service sector. Consequently, the region’s unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent by the end of Sep-tember 2015 from 4.4 percent a year prior. However, the region’s labor force declined in the second and third quarters in 2015, not a good indication. If oil and gas prices remain weak, we expect a large number of energy workers to leave the area in the next year, causing a ripple effect on the already strained regional economy.

The housing market in the San Antonio region is currently at its peak. Home prices were up by 10.3 percent in 2015Q3 over the previous year. According to the San Antonio Board of Realtors, home sales grew at five percent year-over-year through October 2015, and on average, homes spent eight percent less time on the market than the same period last year. One striking feature of San Antonio’s real estate market is that there is more activity in single-family home construction than in multifamily. Single-family housing starts grew by five percent in 2015Q2 and 2015Q3 over the previous year. Multifamily housing starts have lost steam this year. Total housing starts are down 16.5 percent from a year ago so far in 2015.

November 20, 2015


Labor and Demographics

Payroll Jobs (Thousands) 985 988 990 991 995 999 1003 1007 948 979 994






Personal Income

Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) 103022 103574 104256 105043 106079 107252 108514 109805 96968 102429 105658


Housing

Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) 7523 7658 7812 7930 8054 8167 8291 8385 9199 7678 7991

Percent Change Annualized -3.0 7.4 8.3 6.2 6.4 5.7 6.2 4.6 46.6 -16.5 4.1





Bankruptcies

Total Business (12 Months Ending) 141 144 139 146 149 153 155 156 173 143 147













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SA Job Growth to Cool Off

San Antonio

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls,



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Home Prices Gain to Ease

San Antonio

U.S.


FHFA Home Price Index,


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Income Growth Moderates

San Antonio

U.S.


Personal Income,


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3,500

4,000

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5,000

130

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330

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Bankruptcies to Inch Up Business Bankruptcies,

Total 12-Mos. Ending

Source: U.S. District Courts,

Comerica Bank

Personal (R)

Business (L)

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Housing Starts Moderate

San Antonio (L)

U.S., ths (R)


Total Housing Starts,

Annual Rate

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Unemployment Still Falling

U.S.

San Antonio


Unemployment Rate,

Percent








San Antonio’s Economy to Ease on Energy Prices It is no surprise that the San Antonio area will continue to feel the tremors of the energy shock after crude oil

prices fell more than 50 percent (from$93/bbl to $45/bbl) by Mid-September 2015. The proximity of San An-tonio to the Eagle Ford Shale reservoir certainly benefited its economy at the time of strong energy prices. With the fall in energy prices, the Eagle Ford basin lost about 57 percent of its oil and gas rig count in a year. Consequently, the region started losing jobs in the natural resources and mining sector with a net 440 jobs lost in 2015Q2 alone.

Despite the adversity, the region managed to generate more than 28,500 nonfarm payroll jobs in a year from last September, with most of the jobs (more than 76 percent) coming from the services providing sector. Con-sequently, the unemployment rate in the region fell to 3.5 percent by July 2015 from 4.7 percent in 2014Q2. This indicates that the San Antonio’s economy is well-diversified and can weather the energy shock, support-ed by its large non-energy economy. A closer look into 2015Q2 labor market data indicates that the decline in the unemployment rate came from a meager increase in employment of about 0.3 percent and a small de-cline in the labor force, indicating the potential for outmigration of energy workers. We expect San Antonio’s economy to moderate in the remainder of 2015 and 2016 before rebounding in 2017, depending on the ener-gy sector performance.

The real estate market in the San Antonio area is still hot despite a decline in total housing starts due to fall-ing multifamily housing starts for the first half of 2015. Home prices grew more than 10 percent year-over-year in 2015Q2, thereby supporting household wealth in the area. According to the San Antonio Board of Realtors, home sales grew by 12 percent in August from 2014, largely driven by homes with values less than $200,000 and up to $500,000. Going forward, we expect the home price appreciation rate to moderate as income and job growth softens in the region.

September 25, 2015


Labor and DemographicsPayroll Jobs (Thousands) 973 976 980 985 988 992 997 1001 948 975 991






Personal IncomeTotal Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) 100348 100960 101756 102670 103588 104646 105744 106917 96496 100759 104162


Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) 7474 7493 7618 7671 7644 7631 7623 7752 9199 7633 7642

Percent Change Annualized -21.8 1.0 6.8 2.8 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 6.9 46.6 -17.0 0.1





BankruptciesTotal Business (12 Months Ending) 144 142 145 147 154 155 157 158 173 144 153













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SA Nonfarm Job Growth Eases Off

San Antonio

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls, Year/Year Percent Change


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FHFA Home Prices Still Hot

San Antonio

U.S.


FHFA Home Price Index,Year/Year Percent Change

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Personal Income Moderates

San Antonio

U.S.


Personal Income,Year/Year Percent Change

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Bankruptcies To Stabilize Business Bankruptcies, Total 12-Mos. Ending

Source: U.S. District Courts, Comerica Bank

Personal (R)

Business (L)

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San Antonio (L)

U.S., ths (R)


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Unemployment to Fall Slowly

U.S.

San Antonio


Unemployment Rate,Percent








San Antonio’s Growth To Ease on Energy Sector Performance We are starting to see the broader impact of oil price decline across the San Antonio economy as reflected in

the March job numbers. We saw a net decline of 3,400 nonfarm payroll jobs in March 2015 in the metropoli-tan area, the worst monthly performance since June 2011. It is surprising to note that San Antonio lost 4,210 service producing jobs in March while adding 60 in the natural resources and mining sector. Yet, the area wit-nessed the highest quarterly year-over-year job growth (about 3.7%) in nearly a decade in 2015Q1. As San An-tonio’s labor market tightens up and the energy sector consolidates, we expect job growth to moderate going forward in 2015 and 2016.

According to Baker Hughes, the Eagle Ford basin has lost more than 123 oil rigs in the past year. However, the gas rig count had more than doubled to 19 by the first week of May 2015 after bottoming out in the early Au-gust 2014. Oil production per rig is increasing to a record high (>700 barrels/day) and oil and natural gas pro-duction is levelling out in the Eagle Ford basin recently. Crude oil prices have rebounded to nearly $60/barrel after bottoming out in mid-March. It is still too early to declare that the forces of supply and demand have es-tablished equilibrium in the oil prices. However, if the prices stay around $55-$60/barrel or above, drilling ac-tivity will increase in the region, thereby helping expand the local economy.

San Antonio’s real estate market has been buoyed by strong job and income growth. Housing inventories are very tight, as in other major Texas metro areas, thereby compounding pressure on property values. San Anto-nio’s home prices are growing above the U.S. average, supported by tight supply and higher demand. We ex-pect housing supply to grow, bringing home price appreciation rates down later this year and in 2016.

May 21, 2015


Labor and DemographicsPayroll Jobs (Thousands) 970 976 981 986 990 995 1,000 1,005 948 978 998






Personal IncomeTotal Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) 100293 101437 103102 104329 105559 106808 108154 109518 96507 102290 107510


Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) 7109 7322 7481 7634 7773 7890 8005 8104 7793 7387 7943

Percent Change Annualized -33.9 12.5 8.9 8.4 7.5 6.2 5.9 5.0 24.3 -5.2 7.5





BankruptciesTotal Business (12 Months Ending) 158 156 153 151 149 148 147 147 173 154 148













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San Antonio's Job Growth Strong in 2015Q1

San Antonio

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls, Year/Year Percent Change


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Income Growth Ticks Up

Personal Income,Year/Year Percent Change

San Antonio

U.S.


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Residential Contruction Stable

U.S., Ths (R)

San Antonio (L)

Housing Starts Total, Annual Rate

Source: Census Bureau, Comerica Bank

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San Antonio's Housing Market Eases

San Antonio

U.S.

FHFA Home Price Index,Year/Year Percent Change


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Credit Quality Improving

Personal (L)

Bankruptcies, Total 12-Mos. Ending

Business (R)

Source: U.S. District Courts, Comerica Bank

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Unemployment Rate Declining

San Antonio

U.S.Unemployment Rate, Percent


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