commercial real estate outlook irr-viewpoint 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Commercial Real Estate OutlookIRR-Viewpoint 2010
Commercial Real Estate OutlookIRR-Viewpoint 2010
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IndustrialThe Best, The Worst and The Local MarketIndustrialThe Best, The Worst and The Local Market
Top Three Markets By Vacancy…1. Los Angeles, CA – 4.92%2. Orange County, CA – 6.58%3. Seattle, WA – 6.70%
Local Market…50. Charlotte, NC – 14.26% (3Q 2009);14.70% (1Q 2010-NA)
…and the Bottom Three Markets54. Austin, TX – 18.40%55. Boston, MA – 24.76%56. Louisville, KY – 26.01%
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Industrial Market PricingIndustrial Market PricingMoodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index - Industrial
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Industrial – Overall Capitalization RatesIndustrial – Overall Capitalization Rates
Institutional NoninstitutionalNational Flex
7.50 %-12.0%
9.38% - Average
100-400 basis points
250 or 11.88% - Average
National Warehouse
7.00%-12.0%
8.60% - Average
100-300 basis points
225 or 10.85 % -Average
Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey
• Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey
Industrial - 9.59%
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ApartmentThe Best, The Worst and The Local MarketApartmentThe Best, The Worst and The Local Market
Top Three Markets By Vacancy…1. San Francisco, CA – 3.59%2. Syracuse – 3.94%3. New York City – 4.80%
Local Market…49. Charlotte – 11.64% (3Q–2009);13.6% (1Q 2010)
…and the Bottom Three Markets54. Phoenix – 12.97%55. Naples/Ft. Myers – 13.37%56. Providence – 14.11%
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Apartment Market PricingApartment Market Pricing
Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index - Apartments
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Apartment – Overall Capitalization RatesApartment – Overall Capitalization Rates
Institutional NoninstitutionalNational Apartment
5.00 %-11.00%
7.68% - Average
0-400 basis points
161 or 9.29% - Average
Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey
• Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey
Retail – 9.50% Average
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Office Market CycleOffice Market Cycle
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Office – CBD The Best, The Worst and The Local MarketOffice – CBD The Best, The Worst and The Local Market
Top Three Markets By Vacancy…1. Charlotte, NC – 6.43%2. Boise, ID – 8.10%3. Memphis, TN – 8.70%
Local Market…1. Charlotte, NC – 6.43% (3Q–2009); 12.0% (1Q-2010)
…and the Bottom Three Markets54. San Jose, CA – 23.90%55. Detroit, MI – 25.00%56. Dayton, OH – 26.00%
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Office – Suburban The Best, The Worst and The Local MarketOffice – Suburban The Best, The Worst and The Local Market
Top Three Markets By Vacancy…1. Dayton, OH – 10.88%2. Pittsburgh, PA – 11.09%3. Los Angeles, CA – 11.30%
Local Market…41. Charlotte, NC – 19.07% (3Q–2009);19.77% (1Q–2010)
…and the Bottom Three Markets54. Detroit, MI – 23.89%55. Phoenix, AZ – 27.41%56. Hartford, CT – 29.45%
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Office Market PricingOffice Market PricingMoodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index - Office
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Office – Overall Capitalization RatesOffice – Overall Capitalization Rates
Institutional NoninstitutionalNational CBD
6.00 %-10.50%
8.15% - Average N/A
Suburban
6.00%-12.00%
8.60% - Average
25-300 basis points
141 or 10.01 % -Average
Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey
• Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey
Office – 9.48% Average
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Retail Market CycleRetail Market Cycle
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RetailThe Best, The Worst and The Local MarketRetailThe Best, The Worst and The Local Market
Top Three Markets By Vacancy…1. San Francisco, CA – 3.08%2. Los Angeles, CA – 4.87%3. San Jose, CA – 5.03%
Local Market…12. Charlotte, NC – 6.77% (3Q–2009); 8.0% (4Q–2009)
…and the Bottom Three Markets54. Providence, RI – 17.00%55. Dayton, OH – 17.30%56. Detroit, MI – 17.35%
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Retail Market PricingRetail Market PricingMoodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index - Retail
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Retail – Overall Capitalization RatesRetail – Overall Capitalization Rates
Institutional NoninstitutionalRegional Malls
5.00 %-10.50%
7.93% - Average
25-500 basis points
279 or 10.72% - Average
Power Center
7.50%-10.00%
8.70% - Average N/A
Strip Center
7.00%-11.40%
8.38% - Average
50-1000 basis points
303 or 11.41%- Average
Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey
• Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey
Retail – 9.50% Average
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Recent Development in Capitalization RatesRecent Development in Capitalization Rates
Korpacz Survey data for investment grade property and our analysis are presented in the following table:
National Markets4th Q 2007
Value of $1 at 2007 Cap
Rate2nd Q 2010
Value of $1 at 2010 Cap
Rate
Annual Change Cap
Rate(bps)
Annual Change Cap
Rate(%)
Change in Value of $1 from 4th Q
2007 to 2nd Q 2010
Apartment 5.75% $17.39 7.68% $13.02 193 -14.40% -25.13%Regional Mall 6.68% $14.97 7.93% $12.61 125 -10.51% -15.76%Warehouse 6.48% $15.43 8.60% $11.63 212 -13.85% -24.65%CBD Office 6.64% $15.06 8.15% $12.27 151 -10.81% -18.53%Strip Shopping Center 7.24% $13.81 8.38% $11.93 114 -7.64% -13.60%Power Center 7.13% $14.03 8.70% $11.49 157 -8.68% -18.05%Suburban Office 7.20% $13.89 8.60% $11.63 140 -9.48% -16.28%Flex/R&D 7.60% $13.16 9.38% $10.66 178 -9.91% -18.98%Net Lease 7.60% $13.16 8.98% $11.14 138 -7.38% -15.37%Average 6.92% $14.54 8.49% $11.82 156 -10.30% -18.48%
National Markets1st Half
2008
Value of $1 at 2007 Cap
Rate1st Half
2009
Value of $1 at 2010 Cap
RateAnnual
Change (bps)Annual
Change (%)
Change in Value of $1
from 2008 to 2010
Domestic Self Storage 7.55% $13.25 8.45% $11.83 90 -7.12% -10.65%
1
Source: Korpacz
KORPACZ INVESTMENT GRADE
Note: Self storage survey is completed every six months.
CAPITALIZATION RATE DATA
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Recent Development in Capitalization RatesRecent Development in Capitalization Rates
Korpacz Survey data for non-investment grade property and our analysis are presented in the following table:
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Real Estate Listing Sources – For Sale & For LeaseReal Estate Listing Sources – For Sale & For Lease
• Loopnet http://www.loopnet.com/
• Edis http://www.nccommerce.com/en/BusinessServices/LocateYourBusiness/BuildingsAndSites/(N.C. Department of Commerce Buildings & Sites EDIS)
• Mecklenburg County Real Estate Lookuphttp://meckcama.co.mecklenburg.nc.us/relookup/(Market Analysis Link)
• National & Local Brokerage Firms– Apartment Realty Advisors http://www.arausa.com/Index.cfm– CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) http://www.cbre.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx– Sperry Van Ness http://www.svn.com/– Lincoln Harris CSG http://www.lincolnharris.com/Home/– The Stump Corporation http://www.stumpnet.com/– Marcus & Millichamp http://www.marcusmillichap.com/– NAIGLOBAL http://www.naiglobal.com/
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National Real Estate SurveysNational Real Estate Surveys
• IRR.com (Viewpoint – Real Estate Value Trends)
• Marcus & Millchap.com
• NAIGLOBAL
• www.pwc.com (Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey)
• ACLI (American Council of Life Insurers)
• Realty Rates.com (Developer Surveys, Financial Indicators, Market Surveys, Investor Surveys)
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Vacancy and Rental Rate Surveys - SUBSCRIPTIONVacancy and Rental Rate Surveys - SUBSCRIPTION
• Karnes (Office, Retail and Industrial)
• Real Data (Apartments)
• REIS
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Real Estate Sales - SUBSCRIPTIONReal Estate Sales - SUBSCRIPTION
• Costar
• REIS
• Real Capital Analytics http://www.rcanalytics.com/
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Integra Realty ResourcesNation’s Largest Valuation
and Counseling Firm
Integra Realty ResourcesNation’s Largest Valuation
and Counseling Firm
• 59 Offices in 33 states, plus DC and Mexico• Over 800 Consultants & Advisors• 150+ MAIs company-wide