communicating changes in the arctic environment
DESCRIPTION
Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment . Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder . IPY Oslo Science Conference 2010, June 8-12, 2010. Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Communicating Changes in the Arctic Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment Environment
Nancy N. SoreideNOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder
IPY Oslo Science Conference 2010, June 8-12, 2010
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Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment
• The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook – A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea
ice minimum.
• The Arctic Report Card – A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of
information on recent changes in the Arctic.
• Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts– Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader
broader audience, beyond the science literature.
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Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/
• Reports issued monthly throughout summer.
• Synthesize community-wide estimates
• Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice
• Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent
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1996
1979-2000
2009
• All Outlook projected values for September 2009 were less than the observed value
• But most were within the range of uncertainty
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Sea Ice Outlook 2008Showed predictability of Sept sea ice based on Spring data
Predict. minima:mean=4.43σ=0.21
'June'outlook
Ice extent - start from 27. June 2008
September
'July'outlook
Ice extent - start from 7. August 2008Predict. minima:mean=4.43σ=0.15
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Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO)A New Sea Ice Outlook Product
• Reports issued weekly on sea ice conditions
• Designed for Alaska Native subsistence hunters, coastal communities, and others interested in sea ice and walrus
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Arctic Report Card Tracks recent environmental changes
Updated annually, Peer-reviewed
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
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AtmosphereHigher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere contributing to changes
in the atmospheric circulation in the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes
AtmosphereLarge scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice
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Sea Ice September extent in 2009 was the third lowest in satellite record (1979)
and >25% below 1979-2000 average
Sea IceMulti-year sea ice is being replaced by first year sea ice
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GreenlandDespite an abnormally cold winter, record-setting summer temperatures
lead to continued ice sheet loss
Cumulative annual area changes for 34 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets.
GreenlandIce sheet loss continues
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Biology, Ocean and LandShow many indications of warming
LandIncreased runoff in Siberia, less snow in N. America
OceanWarming and freshening of upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas
BiologyHigh Arctic species impacted by loss of sea ice
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References
1 Wang, M., and J.E. Overland (2009): A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820.
2 Overland, J.E., and M. Wang (2010): Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.
3Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009): Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.
4Strey, S.T., W. Chapman, and J. Walsh (2009): Effects Of An Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Minimum On the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere During Late Autumn and Early Winter:, Eos Trans. Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C41A-0421.
5 Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., and J.A. Francis (2008): Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799–4810.
6 Serreze, M.C., Barrett, A.P., Stroeve, J.C., Kindig, D.N., and M.M. Holland (2009): The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19.
7 Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006): Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503,doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.
8 Budikova, D. (2009): Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet. Change, 68(3), 149–163.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/
Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global ImpactsSummarizes important recent Arctic science results
for a broader, more general audience
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Heat
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Impacts
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Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens Peer-reviewed by topical experts of the Climate Experts Group (AMAP) of the Arctic Council.
Arctic Report CardArctic Report Card22
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. Reports are released monthly throughout the summer. Mew in 2010: Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO).
International Arctic Sea Ice OutlookInternational Arctic Sea Ice Outlook11 http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/
Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global ImpactsThe Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts22
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/
1 Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)2 2 Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program