comparing strategies for fisheries management · 2017. 5. 17. · stock-by-stock analysis (4,713...

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Comparing Strategies for FisheriesManagement

Dr. Christopher Costello

Bren School, UC Santa Barbara &Sustainable Fisheries Group

International Workshop on Fishery Management

December 8, 2016

Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management

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Roadmap for this talk

Key challenges for fishery management

Successful approaches

Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation

New challenges & opportunities


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Key challenges for fishery management

Many objectives of fishery managementFood securityLivelihoods and economic efficiencyEcosystem sustainability

Input vs. output controls?Closed seasons, gear restrictions, size limits, closed areasWell-monitored total allowable catchesCombination of them?

Stock assessmentData “rich”Data “poor”

Mixed-stock fisheriesDoes overfishing increase production?Designing institutions for management


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Question: How to design fishery management to embracethese goals and challenges?


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One approach: Rights-based management (RBM):Increasingly adopted around the world

Set overall TAC, allocate as “shares” to:AreasFishing portsIndividuals


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RBM and fishery collapse

Theory: RBM alter incentives for stewardshipPanel Data: 11,000 fisheries worldwide x 50 yearsCompare collapse rates with/without RBM


Question: How to preventfisheries from collapsing?

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RBM and fishery collapse


“Can catch shares prevent fishery collapse?”(Costello et al., 2008. Science.)

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Other RBM solutions in the developing world

Fishery cooperativesGive some monitoring and management authority to fishinggroups

Spatial rights – TURFsAllocate spatial rights to communities


“Partial enclosure ofthe commons”(Costello et al., 2015. J. PublicEcon.)

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Example from the field: Fish Forever


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Data-poor ecosystems in worst shape

95% of fisheries lack formal assessmentHow to design/prioritize reforms without data?Develop new methods for global data-poor assessment


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Models that combine ecology, economics, fisheries science caninform management design


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A model of global fishery management reform

Stock-by-stock analysis (4,713 fisheries worldwide)

Economics data, ecological data, dynamic models

Current status & projectionsBAU, Fmsy, Rights-based fishery management

Triple-bottom-line outcomesFood, Profits, Conservation


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Global snapshot of fishery status & trends

Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries ManagementDensityData$x

Den

sity

Dat

a$y

1

2

3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0B BMSY

FF

MS

Y

Global

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Global snapshot, highlighting China

Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries ManagementDensityData$x

Den

sity

Dat

a$y

1

2

3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0B BMSY

FF

MS

Y

China

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Forecasting effects of RBM

Tradeoffs across objectives, across countriesTiming of recoveryAlternative management scenarios


1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

●● BAU (all stocks)

BAU (conservation concern)

RBFM

FMSY

Profit/year ($ Billion)−10 80

% S

tock

s ab

ove

0.8

B/B

MS

Y

Year

Total harvest (MMT)

8849

“Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes”(Costello et al., 2016. PNAS)

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Country-level effects: RBFM vs. BAU


0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

●China

4.4

0.2

Cha

nge

in A

nnua

l Pro

fit (

$ B

illio

n)

Change in Biomass (MMT)

MSY

Change in Catch (MMT)0 1

A

0 10 20 30

0

1

2

3

4

5

Indonesia

India

Japan

PhilippinesThailand

MalaysiaViet Nam

S. KoreaTaiwan

B

Cha

nge

in A

nnua

l Pro

fit (

$ B

illio

n)

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Global effects: Today


400 600 800 1000 1200

0

20

40

60

80

Today62.4

Biomass (MMT)

Ann

ual P

rofit

($

Bill

ions

)

Policy applied to stocks of conservation concernPolicy applied to all stocks

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Global effects: Conservation Concern stocks


400 600 800 1000 1200

0

20

40

60

80

BAU

RBFM

Fmsy

Today58.2

64.1

64.1

62.4

Biomass (MMT)

Ann

ual P

rofit

($

Bill

ions

)

Policy applied to stocks of conservation concernPolicy applied to all stocks

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New challenges and opportunities

Multi-species fisheries and food websFishing predatory fish lets prey flourishMay increase overall production, butMay increase risk

Aquaculture, enhancement, and wild fisheriesSpatial planningMarket interactionsEcological interactions

Climate changeProductivity changes, range shifts, dispersal, regime shiftsClimate-proofing fishery institutions


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Conclusions and main messages

Global: Fisheries “diverging” in performanceIf devote science and best management practices:

Fisheries will recoverCan produce many benefits: food, economy, ecosystem

China context is special:Mixed-stock fisheriesOcean enhancement, artificial reefsCombination of input and output controlsExcellent scientific capacityMany social objectives

A way forward?Draw on lessons-learned from around the worldBut unique context may call for new approaches, andcombinations of tools


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Thank You

Questions?

[email protected]

Introduction

comparing strategies for fisheries management · 2017. 5. 17. · stock-by-stock analysis (4,713...

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