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Comparing Strategies for FisheriesManagement
Dr. Christopher Costello
Bren School, UC Santa Barbara &Sustainable Fisheries Group
International Workshop on Fishery Management
December 8, 2016
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Roadmap for this talk
Key challenges for fishery management
Successful approaches
Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation
New challenges & opportunities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
-
,
Roadmap for this talk
Key challenges for fishery management
Successful approaches
Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation
New challenges & opportunities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
-
,
Roadmap for this talk
Key challenges for fishery management
Successful approaches
Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation
New challenges & opportunities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
-
,
Roadmap for this talk
Key challenges for fishery management
Successful approaches
Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation
New challenges & opportunities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
-
,
Roadmap for this talk
Key challenges for fishery management
Successful approaches
Prospects: Food, livelihoods, conservation
New challenges & opportunities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Key challenges for fishery management
Many objectives of fishery managementFood securityLivelihoods and economic efficiencyEcosystem sustainability
Input vs. output controls?Closed seasons, gear restrictions, size limits, closed areasWell-monitored total allowable catchesCombination of them?
Stock assessmentData “rich”Data “poor”
Mixed-stock fisheriesDoes overfishing increase production?Designing institutions for management
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Question: How to design fishery management to embracethese goals and challenges?
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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One approach: Rights-based management (RBM):Increasingly adopted around the world
Set overall TAC, allocate as “shares” to:AreasFishing portsIndividuals
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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RBM and fishery collapse
Theory: RBM alter incentives for stewardshipPanel Data: 11,000 fisheries worldwide x 50 yearsCompare collapse rates with/without RBM
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
Question: How to preventfisheries from collapsing?
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RBM and fishery collapse
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
“Can catch shares prevent fishery collapse?”(Costello et al., 2008. Science.)
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Other RBM solutions in the developing world
Fishery cooperativesGive some monitoring and management authority to fishinggroups
Spatial rights – TURFsAllocate spatial rights to communities
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
“Partial enclosure ofthe commons”(Costello et al., 2015. J. PublicEcon.)
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Example from the field: Fish Forever
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Data-poor ecosystems in worst shape
95% of fisheries lack formal assessmentHow to design/prioritize reforms without data?Develop new methods for global data-poor assessment
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Models that combine ecology, economics, fisheries science caninform management design
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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A model of global fishery management reform
Stock-by-stock analysis (4,713 fisheries worldwide)
Economics data, ecological data, dynamic models
Current status & projectionsBAU, Fmsy, Rights-based fishery management
Triple-bottom-line outcomesFood, Profits, Conservation
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Global snapshot of fishery status & trends
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries ManagementDensityData$x
Den
sity
Dat
a$y
1
2
3
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0B BMSY
FF
MS
Y
Global
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Global snapshot, highlighting China
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries ManagementDensityData$x
Den
sity
Dat
a$y
1
2
3
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0B BMSY
FF
MS
Y
China
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Forecasting effects of RBM
Tradeoffs across objectives, across countriesTiming of recoveryAlternative management scenarios
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
●● BAU (all stocks)
BAU (conservation concern)
RBFM
FMSY
Profit/year ($ Billion)−10 80
% S
tock
s ab
ove
0.8
B/B
MS
Y
Year
Total harvest (MMT)
8849
“Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes”(Costello et al., 2016. PNAS)
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Country-level effects: RBFM vs. BAU
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
●China
4.4
0.2
Cha
nge
in A
nnua
l Pro
fit (
$ B
illio
n)
Change in Biomass (MMT)
MSY
Change in Catch (MMT)0 1
A
0 10 20 30
0
1
2
3
4
5
Indonesia
India
Japan
PhilippinesThailand
MalaysiaViet Nam
S. KoreaTaiwan
B
Cha
nge
in A
nnua
l Pro
fit (
$ B
illio
n)
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Global effects: Today
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
400 600 800 1000 1200
0
20
40
60
80
Today62.4
Biomass (MMT)
Ann
ual P
rofit
($
Bill
ions
)
Policy applied to stocks of conservation concernPolicy applied to all stocks
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Global effects: Conservation Concern stocks
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
400 600 800 1000 1200
0
20
40
60
80
BAU
RBFM
Fmsy
Today58.2
64.1
64.1
62.4
Biomass (MMT)
Ann
ual P
rofit
($
Bill
ions
)
Policy applied to stocks of conservation concernPolicy applied to all stocks
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New challenges and opportunities
Multi-species fisheries and food websFishing predatory fish lets prey flourishMay increase overall production, butMay increase risk
Aquaculture, enhancement, and wild fisheriesSpatial planningMarket interactionsEcological interactions
Climate changeProductivity changes, range shifts, dispersal, regime shiftsClimate-proofing fishery institutions
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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New challenges and opportunities
Multi-species fisheries and food websFishing predatory fish lets prey flourishMay increase overall production, butMay increase risk
Aquaculture, enhancement, and wild fisheriesSpatial planningMarket interactionsEcological interactions
Climate changeProductivity changes, range shifts, dispersal, regime shiftsClimate-proofing fishery institutions
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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New challenges and opportunities
Multi-species fisheries and food websFishing predatory fish lets prey flourishMay increase overall production, butMay increase risk
Aquaculture, enhancement, and wild fisheriesSpatial planningMarket interactionsEcological interactions
Climate changeProductivity changes, range shifts, dispersal, regime shiftsClimate-proofing fishery institutions
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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New challenges and opportunities
Multi-species fisheries and food websFishing predatory fish lets prey flourishMay increase overall production, butMay increase risk
Aquaculture, enhancement, and wild fisheriesSpatial planningMarket interactionsEcological interactions
Climate changeProductivity changes, range shifts, dispersal, regime shiftsClimate-proofing fishery institutions
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Conclusions and main messages
Global: Fisheries “diverging” in performanceIf devote science and best management practices:
Fisheries will recoverCan produce many benefits: food, economy, ecosystem
China context is special:Mixed-stock fisheriesOcean enhancement, artificial reefsCombination of input and output controlsExcellent scientific capacityMany social objectives
A way forward?Draw on lessons-learned from around the worldBut unique context may call for new approaches, andcombinations of tools
Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
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Dr. Christopher Costello – UC Santa Barbara Comparing Strategies for Fisheries Management
Thank You
Questions?
Introduction