comprehensive crisis management with special emphasis on human-caused crises human-caused crises ian...
TRANSCRIPT
Comprehensive Comprehensive Crisis Crisis
ManagementManagement with special emphasis with special emphasis
on on
HUMAN-CAUSED CRISESHUMAN-CAUSED CRISES
Ian I. MitroffIan I. Mitroff
© 2006© 2006
Before During Before During After After
1. Crisis Types1. Crisis Types
2. Crisis 2. Crisis MechanismsMechanisms
3. Crisis 3. Crisis SystemsSystems
4. Crisis 4. Crisis StakeholdersStakeholders
Expose Expose WeaknesseWeaknesses s
BuildBuild CapabilitCapabilitiesies
EnactEnact CapabilitCapabilitiesies
Learn Learn RedesignRedesign
To Enact Is NOT To To Enact Is NOT To ReactReact
To Enact Is To Be To Enact Is To Be ProactiveProactive
1. Crisis Types
1. Crisis Risks
The Manager’s Crisis Index :
The Lukaszewski GroupPotential Crisis SituationsA
Abortion
Accidents
Adverse Government Actions
AIDS
Anonymous Accusers
WWhistleblowers
Over 120 items & the list seems endless!!
Situation Hopeless??
CRISIS FAMILIES
EXT ECON ATTACKS
EXT INFO
HR / REP
PSYCHO
OCCUP-HEALTH
MEGA-DAMAGE
ORG / SOC
TECH / ECON
BREAKS
CRIMINAL
LEGAL
NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVT REGULATORY
Breaks
Loss of Key Equipment, Plants, Supplies
Breakdown of Key Equipment, Plants
Loss of Key FacilitiesMajor Plant Disruption
Psycho/Criminal
Product TamperingKidnappingHostage TakingTerrorismWorkplace Violence
Economic
Labor StrikesLabor UnrestLabor ShortageMajor Decline in Stock Price and Fluctuations
Market CrashDecline in Major Earnings
Human Resource
Loss of Key Executives, Personnel Rise in AbsenteeismRise in Vandalism and AccidentsWorkplace Violence
Informational
Loss of Proprietary and Confidential Information
False InformationTampering with Computer RecordsLoss of Key Stakeholder Information
Natural
EarthquakesFiresFloodsExplosionsTyphoonsHurricanes
Reputation
SlanderGossipSick JokesRumorsDamage to Corporate ReputationTampering with Corporate Logos
CRISIS FAMILIES
EXT ECON ATTACKS
EXT INFO
HR / REP
PSYCHO
OCCUP-HEALTH
MEGA-DAMAGE
ORG / SOC
TECH / ECON
BREAKS
CRIMINAL
LEGAL
NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVT REGULATORY
TT
FFNORMALNORMALABNORMALABNORMAL
CRISIS FAMILIES
EXT ECON ATTACKS
EXT INFO
HR / REP
PSYCHO
OCCUP-HEALTH
MEGA-DAMAGE
ORG / SOC
TECH / ECON
BREAKS
CRIMINAL
LEGAL
NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVT REGULATORY
TT
FFNORMALNORMALABNORMALABNORMAL
NN SS
Which Family Is Planned For Most and
Why?
CRISIS FAMILIES
EXT ECON ATTACKS
EXT INFO
HR / REP
PSYCHO
OCCUP-HEALTH
MEGA-DAMAGE
ORG / SOC
TECH / ECON
BREAKS
CRIMINAL
LEGAL
NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVT REGULATORY
TT
FF
BREAKS
NORMALNORMALABNORMALABNORMALNN SS
Which Family Is Planned For Least and
Why?
CRISIS FAMILIES
EXT ECON ATTACKS
EXT INFO
HR / REP
PSYCHO
OCCUP-HEALTH
MEGA-DAMAGE
ORG / SOC
TECH / ECON
BREAKS
LEGAL
NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVT REGULATORY
TT
FF
PSYCHO
NORMALNORMALABNORMALABNORMALNN SS
CRIMINAL
2. InterventionsCrisis Mechanisms
2. CRISIS PHASES
The 6 Phases of CM
Signal Detection
SDM’s for:Any Crises?
Build on Existing Data Bases?
Integrated?
Types of Signals, Noise?
Blockers?
Transmitted to Whom?
Actions?
Internal Assassin Team Exercise?
--- ---Signal Signal
Received?Received?
Signal Signal Detector Detector Exists?Exists?
---Signal Signal TransmittedTransmitted??
---Signal Signal Received By Received By The Right The Right Person?Person?
---
Signal Signal Related To Related To An Org An Org Problem?Problem?
---Actions Actions Taken?Taken?---
Signal Signal Related To Related To An Org An Org Actions?Actions?
ORGANIZATIONAL Signal DetectionORGANIZATIONAL Signal Detection
---
Signal Signal Correctly Correctly InterpretedInterpreted??
Types of SignalsTypes of Signals
ExternExternalal
InternInternalal
PeoplePeople
TechnicTechnicalal
CommunitiesCommunitiesSpecial Special InterestsInterestsMediaMediaConsumersConsumers
Remote SensingRemote SensingGovernment Government MonitoringMonitoringIndustryIndustryScientific Scientific ResearchResearch
Gossip / Gossip / RumorsRumorsPersonal Personal NetworksNetworksThe CultureThe Culture
Personal Data Personal Data BasesBasesPCsPCsITIT
SignalsSignals
TypesTypes
EconomicEconomic
ReputationalReputational
Internal Internal External External
Tech Tech People People
Tech Tech People People
?? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??
The 6 Phases of CM
Probing/
Signal Detection
Mandatory?
Formal Failure Analyses?
Rewarded?
Blame the Messenger?
Organizational Status?
Preparation
The 6 Phases of CM
Signal Detection
Damage Containment Damage Containment
CRISIS
Maintained? Updated?
APPROPRIATE TYPES?
Physically Contain? Buffer? Wall Off?
Disperse? Decay?
Neutralize? Treat? Convert?
Dilute? Reduce Concentration?
Deflect? Redirect?
Probing/Preparation
The 6 Phases of CM
Damage Containment
Physically Contain? Buffer? Wall Off?
Disperse? Decay?
Neutralize? Treat? Convert?
Dilute? Reduce Concentration?
Deflect? Redirect? Rebound?
Transparency? Tear Down Walls?
Open/Expose?
The 6 Phases of CM
Signal Detection
Damage Containment
Business Recovery
Damage Containment
Business Continuity
Minimum Services?
Most Important Stakeholders?
Off-site, On-Site?
Backups?
Hot/Cold Sites?
Probing/Preparation
The 6 Phases of CM
Probing/Preparation
Signal Detection
Damage Containment
Business Recovery
No-Fault Learning
Damage Containment
Formal Reviews?
Near Misses?
No Blame?
Generalize Learning?
The 6 Phases of CM
Probing/Preparation
Signal Detection
Damage Containment
Business Recovery
No-Fault Learning
Redesign
Damage Containment
Actually Implement Changes?
The 6 Phases of CM
Probing/Preparation
Signal Detection
Damage Containment
Business Recovery
No-Fault Learning
Redesign
Damage Containment
PROACTIVE REACTIVE
INTERACTIVE
3. Root Causes
3. CRISIS SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS1. Technology
5. Top Mgt 5. Top Mgt PsychologyPsychology
4. Culture
3. Human Factors
2. Org Structure1
23
4
5
Critical Issues
1. Technology Complexity Design Knowledge Age / Standardization Controls / Risks
2. Org Structure Layers Rewards Jobs Information Channels Business Strategies4. Org Culture Safety : Crisis Prepared Crisis Prone
3. Human Factors Operator Interface Org Interface
5. Top Mgt Psychology Decision Styles Risk Conflict Styles Family History Education
The Systems Dynamics of BHOPAL
Initial Crisis: -$
Poor Design
Poor Maintenance
Low Morale
Poor Safety Standards
Poor Infrastructure
Poor Safety
The Final Crisis
Cost-Cutting
Organizational Issues
Well-Trained CM Team?Appropriate Functions?
Facilitate?Conflict Management?
Org Flexibility?Share Resources?
Human Factors
Three-Mile IslandAmtrak
Mental-Map Conferences?KNOWLEDGE-BASED
Designers, Operators,Maintenance?
OK NOT
ORGANIZATIONAL CULTUREDangerous
RationalizationsOur size will protect us.
Excellent companies don’t have crises.
Our location will protect us.
Certain crises only happen to others.
If a crisis happens, someone will rescue us.
CM is someone else’s responsibility.
Each crisis is so unique that it is pointless to prepare.
OVER 30 KEY RATIONALIZATIONS!!!
Shared Freudian Defense Shared Freudian Defense MechanismsMechanisms
1. Denial1. Denial
2. Disavowal2. Disavowal
3. Idealization3. Idealization
4. Grandiosity4. Grandiosity
5. Projection5. Projection
6. 6. IntellectualizationIntellectualization
7. 7. CompartmentalizatioCompartmentalizationn
1. Invulnerability1. Invulnerability
2. Impacts Negligible2. Impacts Negligible
3. We Don’t Have 3. We Don’t Have ProblemsProblems
4. We’re Big & Powerful4. We’re Big & Powerful
5. Someone Else to Blame5. Someone Else to Blame
6. Probabilities Small6. Probabilities Small
7. Can’t Affect the 7. Can’t Affect the Whole Whole
SystemSystem
IndividuaIndividuall
OrganizationOrganization
The Impact of Culture
CM
Preparation
Number of Dangerous Rationalizations
Crisis Prone = 7 X Crisis Prepared !!
4. Affected Parties
4. STAKEHOLDERS
Stakeholder AnalysisINTERNATIONAL
CORE
EXTERNAL
NATIONAL
INTERNAL
BELIEFS
POWER
VALUES
RESOURCES
INFLUENCE
CULTURAL
I
I
III
II
IV
Crisis StakeholdersCrisis Stakeholders
OrganizatioOrganizationn EmployeesEmployees
CompetitiCompetitionon
Top ManagementTop Management
MediaMedia
Special Special InterestsInterests
GovernmentsGovernmentsPower/ Power/ ReputatiReputationon
InformatiInformationon
ResourceResourcess
InfluencInfluencee
BanksBanksUnionsUnions
Stakeholder Analysis
The San Diego Zoo
Least Important
Most Important
Certain
Uncertain
Scientific Reputation
Employee Loyalty
Sister Organizations
Stakeholder Analysis
The San Diego Zoo
Least Important
Most Important
Certain
Uncertain
Scientific Reputation
Sister Organizations
Employee Loyalty
WRONG!
WRONG!
WRONG!
AN IDEAL CM PROGRAM
1. CM A TOP CORPORATE PRIORITY!!
2. A Robust CRISIS PORTFOLIO
3. Constantly Improve Signal Detection / Probing /
Damage Containment
4. Constantly Audit Systems: Technology X
Culture 5. Constantly Audit / Incorporate Stakeholders
6. PRE-TRAUMA Training / Simulations
7. Integrate CM With TQM , Safety , IM , Environmentalism