computing and the future of the planet
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"Computing: Demon or Deus ex Machina?" - slides for a talk on computing and climate change to British Computer Society Sussex BranchTRANSCRIPT
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad TaylorComputing and the Future of the Planet
Demon or
Deus ex machina?
a talk by Conrad Taylor
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Burning fossil fuels
Carbon Dioxide
‘Greenhouse Effect’
Global Warming
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Burning fossil fuels
Carbon Dioxide
‘Greenhouse Effect’
Global Warming
Computing currently 3%–5%of all human use of energy…about the same as aviation
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
The bigger picture…How computing can HARMthe planet
How computing can HEALthe planet
How computing can HELPus understand the planet
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
On average,about
of the energy involved in a computer’s life cycle goes in resource extraction, manufacture and disposal
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
National carbon footprint calculation…doesn’t include carbon cost of manufacturing imports
…doesn’t include carbon costs of transporting imports
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
BBC News5 August 2008
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Apple Macintosh iBook G3purchased 2002died 2008
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Professor Andy Hopper CBE FREng FRS
“Computing for the Future of the Planet”
On IET.tv: http://tv.theiet.org/technology/infopro/910.cfm
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
ThinClient
ThinClient
ThinClient
CentralisedComputation
andData StoreAndy Hopper suggests abolishing the Workstation
in favour of thin-client access to computer resources
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Disklessworkstation
Disklessworkstation
Disklessworkstation
IBM Blades
Orwell High School, Felixstowe, Suffolk
Workstations boot Linux Terminal Server ◆◆
from IBM Blade servers
KDE desktop, Open Source apps◆◆
Windows apps (e.g. Visual Basic) ◆◆
supported by Microsoft Terminal Server
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Evolution of the ‘End User Device’Convergence of computers and mobile phones◆◆
Flash memory replacing hard drives◆◆
Developments in battery & fuel cell technology◆◆
direct methanol fuel cell …
direct formic acid fuel cell …
Formica rufa
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Evolution of the ‘End User Device’Convergence of computers and mobile phones◆◆
Flash memory replacing hard drives◆◆
Developments in battery & fuel cell technology◆◆
Hybrid systems e.g. Dell Latitude E3400◆◆
Pre-boot environment built on DeviceVM’s Splashtop …
a Linux stack with Firefox for Web access + Skype …
or continue to boot into full Windows Vista …
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Picasa album photo by ‘howard’
Mary Lou JepsenLed the design of the XO laptop◆◆
Focus on redesign of display◆◆
Energy-saving electronics◆◆
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
sensing and monitoring
environmental data collection
modelling and prediction
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Over time, average temperatures have fluctutated
Figure prepared by Robert A Rohde for Global Warming Art.
Overlay of the published reconstructions: most recent at red and in foreground, older ones in blue
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Permian–Triassic Extinction event, 251.4 MY BP – a global warming catastrophe
96% of all marine species◆◆
70% of all land vertebrates◆◆
Map of Late Permian (260 MY BP) prepared by Dr Ron Blakey
‘Siberian Traps’ basalt eruptions
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Permian–Triassic Extinction eventVolcanic eruptions ◆◆ CO₂ outgassing
Coal, carbonate rocks ◆◆ more CO₂
Release of methane clathrates ◆◆ CH₄
◆◆ ‘Runaway Greenhouse Effect’
Temperature rise ≈ 6˚C at equator, ◆◆
higher towards poles
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Permian–Triassic Extinction eventAnoxic conditions in the oceans: ◆◆
mass die-off of marine biota
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Permian–Triassic Extinction eventAnoxic conditions in the oceans: ◆◆
mass die-off of marine biota
Oceans dominated by ◆◆ Chlorobiaceæ: anaerobic green sulphur bacteria
Poisonous emissions of hydrogen sulphide gas ◆◆
leading to further extinctions
Ozone layer depleted ◆◆ UV radiation
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Marine phytoplankton such as these Antarctic diatoms are responsible for half of the photosynthesis on the planet, converting CO2 and renewing our oxygen supply.
Photo by Professor Gordon Taylor
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Antarctic Krill, Euphausia superba
Potential zone where iron seeding may increase phytoplankton blooming and carbon sequestration
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Jason-2 satellitemicrowave altimeter◆◆
Sea-Level Anomalies in centimetres
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
ICESat
LIDAR: laser rangefinder
monitors the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
The Argo probes
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
The Argos SystemAmerican–French collaboration◆◆
Data-collection satellites on a polar orbit◆◆
Numerous uses:◆◆
meteorological and oceanographic data …
tracking tagged birds and animals as they migrate …
monitoring water levels, water quality …
ShipLoc maritime security (anti-piracy) …
collecting medical data from Argos public health terminals …
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)QinitiQ Zephyr: high-altitude, long-endurance
lithium-sulphur cells recharged by solar power
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Software and StandardsInstrument operation, mission control, ◆◆
telemetry, data processing, visualisation
GEOSS: Global Earth Observation System of Systems◆◆
74 countries, 51 international organisations, …sharing earth observation data
public data standards and interoperability are key …
worldwide data sharing via Internet and satellite …
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Computation and Climate Modelling
Mathematical techniques pioneered ◆◆
by Lewis Fry Richardson
Atmosphere modelled as an array ◆◆
of interacting cells
Differential equations model the ◆◆
fluid dynamic changes for each cell
Iterations take account of each cell’s ◆◆
effect on its neighbours
Lewis Fry Richardson1881–1953
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Atmosphere General Circulation Model, AGCM◆◆
Ocean General Circulation Model, OGCM◆◆
Carbon Cycle Model◆◆
Atmospheric Chemistry Model◆◆
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
HadCM3 – Hadley Climate Model 3Integrates Atmosphere General Circulation Model ◆◆
with Ocean General Circulation Model
Includes atmospheric chemistry and ocean ◆◆
thermohaline circulation
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Climate modelling is controversial!Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ◆◆
wide variation in predictions from different climate prediction models
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
serious hardware for hadley centre
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Board mounted with two PowerXCell 8i chips
Roadrunner supercomputer at Los Alamos Laboratories
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
machine sensing
plus automationpower use optimisation …
aligning solar arrays, shades, daylighting systems …
“intelligent buildings” …
managing drip-feed irrigation systems …
? …
How computers can help the environment
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Toyota Prius — Hybrid Synergy Drive
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
human decision support with machine-provided information
weather forecasting …
predicting and coping with …extreme weather events
transport and logistics management …
? …
How computers can help the environment
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
with digital alternatives to consuming & moving physical assets
How computers can help the environment
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
‘Move bits, not atoms’
virtualisation of the workplace
3-way skype conference call
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
www.slideshare.net
www.iet.tv
virtual meeting presence
Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor
Thanks for listening
Email: [email protected]
Blog: http://conradiator.wordpress.com