D R A F T

Conformity Analysis and Determination Report Amending the Metrolina Area 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plans

and the FY 2018-2022 Transportation Improvement Programs

Draft August 17, 2018

MMM DD, 2018

USDOT Conformity Finding

Prepared by:

The Charlotte Department of Transportation

In cooperation with:

The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality

D R A F T

2

Contact Information

Additional copies of this report can be obtained at the following address:

Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Organization Attn: Eldewins Haynes, CCM

Charlotte DOT Phone Number: 704-336-7621

Email: ehaynes@charlottenc.gov

This document, including the appendices, can be downloaded from the website:

www.crtpo.org

D R A F T

3

Table of Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 5

AMENDED PROJECTS ............................................................................................................................... 6

CRMPO Project .................................................................................................................................... 6

GCLMPO Projects ................................................................................................................................ 6

CRTPO Projects ................................................................................................................................... 6

CRTPO Projects ................................................................................................................................... 7

Table 1. Project Amendment Summary ....................................................................................... 7

AMENDED FISCAL CONSTRAINT DETERMINATION ............................................................................ 8

Transportation Conformity .......................................................................................................................... 8

Emission Comparison Tests by Location and Pollutant ................................................................ 12

Table 8 Emissions Test and Responsibility for Conformity Findings ................................................ 13

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for 1997 Ozone Standard ..................................................................... 13

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for 2008 Ozone Standard ............................................................ 14

Regional Emissions Analysis for 1997 Ozone Standard .................................................................. 15

Table 2 Gaston, Lincoln, & Iredell (part) Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison ................. 16

Table 3 Cabarrus & Rowan Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison ....................................... 16

Table 4 Mecklenburg, Union & RRRPO Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison .................. 16

Regional Emissions Analysis for 2008 Ozone Standard .................................................................. 16

Table 5 Gaston (partial) and Lincoln (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison .......... 17

Table 6 Cabarrus (partial) and Rowan (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison ......... 17

Table 7 Mecklenburg, Union (partial) and Iredell (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison ....................................................................................................................................... 17

Public Involvement and Interagency Consultation ............................................................................ 18

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 18

Appendix A: 1997 Ozone Federal Register Notices ........................................................................ 19

Appendix B: 2008 Ozone Federal Register Notices ........................................................................ 26

Appendix C: Lists of Roadway and Transit Projects within Maintenance Areas .............................124

Appendix D: VMT and Speeds ..........................................................................................................132

Appendix E: Interagency Consultation .............................................................................................145

Appendix F: Moves Emissions Summary Spreadsheets ...................................................................165

D R A F T

4

Appendix G: Public Participation Policies ..........................................................................................170

Appendix H: Public and Agency Comments and Responses ...........................................................241

Appendix I: Adoption / Endorsement Resolutions, And Agency Determinations .........................242

5

D R A F T

Conformity Analysis and Determination Report Amending the Metrolina Area 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plans and the

FY 2018-2022 Transportation Improvement Programs

Introduction This report addresses amendments to the 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and Fiscal Years (FY) 2018-2022 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) to accommodate certain specific projects. The amendments are for the following jurisdictions:

• The Cabarrus-Rowan Metropolitan Planning Organization (CRMPO); • The Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln Urban Area Metropolitan Planning

Organization (GCLMPO); • The Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Organization (CRTPO); and • The donut portion of Union County outside the MPO boundary that is in the

Metrolina Maintenance Area.

The FY 2018-2022 TIPs for the Metrolina Area (Cabarrus-Rowan MPO, Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln MPO and the Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Organization) contain a number of project changes which required 2045 MTP amendments and a new Transportation Conformity Determination for the Metrolina Area. The FY 2018-2022 TIP conformity determination for the Metrolina Area includes a new regional emissions analysis that captures all the 2045 MTP project changes to ensure that the FY 2018-2022 TIPs are direct subsets of the 2045 MTPs. The 2045 MTPs were adopted:

• by the CRMPO on March 28, 2018 • by the GCLMPO on March 26, 2018 • by the CRTPO on March 21, 2018 • by the NCDOT for the donut portion of Union County non-MPO area, projects

from 2018-2022 STIP on March 27, 2018

The MPOs and the NCDOT are required by 23 CFR Parts 450 and 500 and 40 CFR Parts 51 and 93 to make a conformity determination on any newly adopted or amended fiscally-constrained MTPs and TIPs. The intent of this report is to document the transportation conformity determination for the FY 2018-2022 TIPs for the Metrolina Area and projects from the FY 2018-2022 State TIP for the donut area in Union County. In addition, the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT), specifically, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) must make a conformity determination on the MTPs and TIPs in all non-attainment and maintenance areas.

6

D R A F T

The Metrolina Area is maintenance for the both the 1997 and 2008 8-hour ozone standards.

A copy of the 2045 MTP for each MPO is available on-line at www.crmpo.org, at www.gclmpo.org, and at www.crtpo.org.

AMENDED PROJECTS As noted above, this amendment includes changes in timing to existing MTP projects. This group of six regionally-significant projects trigger the need to reevaluate the regional impacts of these modified projects and their anticipated implementation. All six projects have a change in timing, and none of these projects are exempt from the transportation conformity regulations. Non-exempt projects that represent a change in timing of an existing MTP project may be required to be part of travel demand model assumptions for the appropriate analysis year. All projects in this amendment will be implemented by 2020; therefore, they are included in the travel model assumptions for that horizon year. Table 1 provides a summary of the project amendments. This amendment also provides an opportunity to incorporate the most current cost estimates as required in the fiscal constraint requirements. No new cost figures are associated with these changes.

CRMPO Project

Project TIP U-6032: stretches across Cabarrus and Mecklenburg Counties GCLMPO Projects

Project TIP U-5821

Project TIP I-5719

CRTPO Projects

Project TIP U-4913 Project TIP U-5764 Project TIP U-6028 Project TIP ID TBD

7

D R A F T

In addition, the following amended project is included due to changes in project cost:

CRTPO Projects

Project TIP U-3467

Table 1. Project Amendment Summary

Plan ID/ County Route Description

Scope Change Y

= yes N = no * = addto TIP

Original AQ

Analysis Year

Revised AQ

Analysis Year

U-6032 /Cabarrus &Mecklenburg

Odell School Road

Project limits: I-485 to Concord Mills Blvd

Now proposed for a six-lane cross section

Y 2025 N/A

U-5821 /Gaston

NC 279 (S New Hope Rd)

SR 2478 (Titman Rd) to SR 2435 (Union-New Hope Rd). Widen to four-lanes divided.

Y 2025 2025

I-5719 /Gaston

I-85 US 321 to NC 273. Widen to eight lanes.

N 2025 2025

U-4913 /Mecklenburg

Idlewild Road

Current project limits: I-485 to Stevens Mill Road; Proposed project limits: I-485 to Stallings Road. Also, construct diverging diamond interchange at intersection

Y 2025 N/A

U-6032 /Mecklenburg

Same as U-6032 listing in first row Y 2025 N/A

U-5764 /Union

US 74

Current project limits: Hanover Drive to SR 1007, Rocky River Road; Proposed project limits: Hanover Drive to Dickerson Blvd

Y 2025 N/A

8

D R A F T

TIP ID: TBD / Mecklenburg

LYNX light rail line Add new South End station * N/A 2035

U-3467 /Union NC 84

NC 16 to SR 1008 (Waxhaw-Indian Trail Road) in Wesley Chapel. Construct four lane roadway, part on new location.

Cost Increase 2025 N/A

AMENDED FISCAL CONSTRAINT DETERMINATION As part of the federal transportation planning requirements 23 CFR 450 and 500 for MTPs, the costs of implementing transportation programs and projects included in MTPs are compared with the funding expected to be available. These MTPs’ financial analyses were developed in response to the requirements for “financially constrained plans”.

These MTPs consider capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with the preservation and continued operation of the existing transportation system, as well as the costs associated with the recommended expansion of the transportation networks included in the MTPs. The MTPs also describe revenues from all sources that will be available to pay for capital and O&M costs. Each MTP describes in detail its own financing plan. Assumptions for revenues and expenditures are the same as shown in the original document because overall costs of projects did not change significantly. The only changes affect the air quality analysis years, as described in Table 1.

Transportation Conformity The conformity determination accomplishes the intent of the North Carolina State Implementation Plan (SIP). This conformity determination is based on a regional emissions analysis that uses the transportation network approved by each of the above-named Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for their 2045 MTP, donut area projects from the FY 2018-2022 State TIP for the Rural Planning Organizations (RPOs) and the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). Based on this analysis, the CRTPO amended 2045 MTP and their respective amended FY 2018-2022 TIP conform to the purpose of the North Carolina SIP. The amended FY 2018-2022 TIP (i.e., project scope/description, project length, number of lanes) and horizon year (project completion) are direct subsets of the conforming amended 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). The MTP has a 20-year planning horizon. The conformity determination for the RPOs (donut areas) was made by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). RPO (donut area) projects conform to the purpose of the North Carolina SIP.

In 1997, the USEPA reviewed and revised the NAAQS for ozone to reflect improved

9

D R A F T

scientific understanding of the health impacts of this pollutant. The result was establishment of an 8-hour ozone standard of (effectively) 84 parts per billion (ppb). In April 2004, the USEPA declared the Metrolina area as “moderate” nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard. Following ozone monitor recordings of improved air quality in the Metrolina area, NC DEQ/DAQ submitted a redesignation request and maintenance plan for the 1997 8- hour ozone standard on November 2, 2011, supplemented that information on March 28, 2013 and USEPA approved the maintenance plan including SIP motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs) effective on January 2, 2014. Figure 1 displays the regional boundary for the 1997 ozone standard. Appendix A contains the Federal Register notice of the redesignation of the Metrolina Region to attainment. This area included:

• The Cabarrus-Rowan Metropolitan Planning Organization (CRMPO);• The (former) Gaston Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

(GUAMPO);• The (former) Mecklenburg-Union Metropolitan Planning Organization

(MUMPO);• The portion of the Lake Norman Rural Planning Organization in western

Gaston County, Lincoln County, and southern Iredell County; and• The portion of the Rocky River Rural Planning Organization in eastern and

southern Union County

10

D R A F T

Figure 1. Metrolina Maintenance Boundary for the 1997 Ozone Standard

In 2012 the NAAQS for ozone was reviewed and revised to reflect improved scientific understanding of the health impacts of this pollutant. This is known as the 2008 8-hour ozone standard. Effective July 20, 2012, the USEPA declared the Metrolina area as being “marginal” nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard. Due to improved air quality and ozone monitor readings in the Metrolina area NCDAQ submitted an Ozone Maintenance Plan for the region. Effective August 27, 2015, EPA approved the Ozone Maintenance Plan and declared the Metrolina area in attainment of the 2008 ozone standard. Furthermore, EPA approved North Carolina’s proposal to remove the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limit in gasoline for Mecklenburg and Gaston Counties. The lower RVP limits in Mecklenburg and Gaston Counties had served to reduce VOC emissions from on-road vehicles during the ozone season. Figure 2 displays the regional boundary for the 2008 ozone standard. Appendix B contains the following Federal Register notices: the Air Quality Designations for the 2008 NAAQS, EPA’s Final Rule’s Approving North Carolina’s Non-interference Demonstration for Federal Low-RVP, and; the redesignation of the Metrolina Region to attainment. This area includes: • The Cabarrus-Rowan Metropolitan Planning Organization (CRMPO) o Cabarrus County (part) o Rowan County (part);

11

D R A F T

• The Gaston-Lincoln-Cleveland Metropolitan Planning Organization (GCLMPO) o Gaston County (part) o Lincoln County (part) • The Charlotte Region Transportation Planning Organization (CRTPO) o Mecklenburg County o Union County (part) o southern Iredell County (part) • The portion of the Rocky River Rural Planning Organization in eastern and southern Union County (part); and • The Rock Hill, Fort Mill Area Transportation Study (RFATS) an MPO comprising the urbanized (eastern) half of York County, SC. The Rock Hill, Fort Mill Area Transportation Study (RFATS), an MPO comprising the urbanized (eastern) half of York County, SC, was also designated part of the bi-state Charlotte 8-hour ozone non-attainment/maintenance area for both the 1997 and the 2008 standards. Although a portion of York County, South Carolina was designated for both the 1997 and the 2008 ozone standards (part of the bi-state Charlotte 8-hour ozone nonattainment/maintenance area), they are allowed to demonstrate conformity independent of the North Carolina portion of this nonattainment/maintenance area. Therefore, the planning assumptions and methodologies used for the York County, South Carolina portion of this nonattainment/maintenance area is reflected in a separate transportation conformity determination that is generated by the Rock Hill-Fort Mill Area Transit Study Metropolitan Planning Organization. This conformity analysis applies the same travel demand model and planning assumptions, except the highway network amendments described in Table 1, as is included in the original 2045 MTP. Those changes are documented in the amended Appendix C.

12

D R A F T

Figure 2. Metrolina Maintenance Boundary for the 2008 Ozone Standard

The travel demand model assigned vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and speeds to the amended highway network described above for the years 2025, 2026, 2035 and 2045. This information is provided in Appendix D. The VMT and speeds were in turn used as inputs to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOVES emissions model to generate the NOx and VOC emissions for each (whole or partial) county within the Metrolina maintenance region.

Emission Comparison Tests by Location and Pollutant Table 8 summarizes the emissions test used and decision-making responsibility for conformity findings in each County. Four organizations are responsible for conformity determinations; each must make a conformity determination for its respective area in order for all of the areas to be designated in conformity:

The Cabarrus-Rowan MPO (CRMPO) within its portion of the metropolitan

area boundary in Cabarrus and Rowan counties; The Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln Urban Area MPO (GCLMPO) within the

metropolitan area boundary of Gaston and Lincoln Counties;

13

D R A F T

The Charlotte Regional TPO (CRTPO) within its metropolitan area boundary in Mecklenburg, Union, and Iredell (partial) Counties;

The NCDOT in the donut area that is comprised of those portions of Union County that remain outside of any MPO metropolitan area boundary.

Conformity with both the 1997 and 2008 8-hour ozone standards must be demonstrated. The following sections will address each ozone standard separately.

Table 8 Emissions Test and Responsibility for Conformity Findings

Location

Pollutant(s)

Emissions Test

Conformity Finding Responsibility

Gaston and Lincoln Counties

O3

Budget

Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln MPO

Cabarrus and Rowan Counties

O3

Budget

Cabarrus-Rowan MPO

Mecklenburg, Union, and Iredell (Coddle Creek and Davidson Townships) Counties

O3

Budget

Charlotte Regional TPO

the portion of Union County that is outside of the CRTPO metropolitan area boundary

O3

Budget

NCDOT

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for 1997 Ozone Standard NC DEQ/DAQ prepared emission budgets as part of the 1997 8-Hour Ozone Maintenance State Implementation Plan (SIP), which was submitted to USEPA on November 2, 2011 and later supplemented on March 28, 2013. USEPA approved the maintenance plan including SIP MVEBs effective on January 2, 2014. Each of the 7 North Carolina counties was combined into subarea motor vehicle emission budgets under the 8-hour ozone standard for both NOx and VOC based on the 2000 census MPO boundaries. Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets covering specific sub regions as depicted in Figure 3 were established for 2025. The Federal Register notice (Appendix A) established the NOx and VOC budgets for the non-attainment area.

14

D R A F T

Figure 3. 2025 NOx & VOC MVEBs for the Metrolina 1997 Ozone Standard

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for 2008 Ozone Standard NC DEQ/DAQ prepared emission budgets as part of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone Maintenance State Implementation Plan (SIP), which was submitted to USEPA on April 16, 2015. In a Federal Register notice dated July 28, 2015, USEPA approved the maintenance plan including SIP MVEBs, effective August 27, 2015. Each of the 7 North Carolina counties was combined into subarea motor vehicle emission budgets under the 8-hour ozone standard for both NOx and VOC based on the 2010 census MPO boundaries. In a separate notice also dated July 28, 2015, USEPA granted a relaxation of the federal summertime Reid vapor pressure (RVP) gasoline standard for Mecklenburg and Gaston Counties from 7.8 to 9.0 pounds per square inch (psi). The RVP for the other counties remained at 9.0 psi. The change slightly increased the MVEB for NOx and VOC in Mecklenburg and Gaston Counties. The resulting Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets covering specific sub regions as depicted in Figure 4 were established for 2026. The budgets apply only to the area within the maintenance boundary. The Federal Register notice (Appendix B) established the NOx and VOC budgets for the non-attainment area.

15

D R A F T

Figure 4. 2026 NOx & VOC MVEBs for the Metrolina 2008 Ozone Standard. Applies only to area inside Maintenance Area.

Regional Emissions Analysis for 1997 Ozone Standard In areas where the USEPA has approved an attainment demonstration or maintenance plan, an emissions budget comparison satisfies the emissions test requirement of 40 CFR Part 93.118. For those pollutants for which an emissions budget has been submitted, the estimated emissions from the transportation plan must be less than or equal to the emissions budget values. All parts of the Metrolina ozone maintenance Area have emissions budgets and are covered by the MRM. Each part was analyzed for each pollutant (NOx and VOC) in each comparison year. Table 2 contains a summary of results from the Gaston-Lincoln-Iredell subarea budget comparison. Table 3 contains a summary of results from the Cabarrus-Rowan subarea budget comparison. Table 4 provides the same summary for the Mecklenburg-Union subarea. In every horizon year for every pollutant, the emissions expected from the implementation of the amended TIP and MTP are less than the emissions budgets for each MPO as adopted in the Maintenance Plan and established in the SIP. DEQ’s emission summary spreadsheet, as well as detailed analysis

16

D R A F T

results by county (in MySQL database format), are contained in Appendix F.

Table 2 Gaston, Lincoln, & Iredell (part) Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison

Gaston Urban Area MPO/Lake Norman RPO Comparison Summary (kilograms/day)

Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2025 4,526 12,541 4,369 7,047 2035 1,945 12,541 2,323 7,047 2045 1,720 12,541 2,088 7,047

Table 3 Cabarrus & Rowan Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison

CRMPO Emissions Comparison Summary (kilograms/day) Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2025 4,331 11,953 4,200 6,510 2035 1,920 11,953 2,390 6,510 2045 1,738 11,953 2,237 6,510

Table 4 Mecklenburg, Union & RRRPO Emissions to 1997 SIP MVEB Comparison

Mecklenburg Union MPO/ Rocky River RPO Comparison Summary (kilograms/day)

Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2025 9,465 35,728 9,485 17,378 2035 5,345 35,728 6,207 17,378 2045 5,301 35,728 6,179 17,378

Regional Emissions Analysis for 2008 Ozone Standard In areas where the USEPA has approved an attainment demonstration or maintenance plan, an emissions budget comparison satisfies the emissions test requirement of 40 CFR Part 93.118. For those pollutants for which an emissions budget has been submitted, the estimated emissions from the transportation plan must be less than or equal to the emissions budget values. All parts of the Metrolina ozone maintenance Area have emissions budgets and are covered by the MRM. Each part was analyzed for each pollutant (NOx and VOC) in each comparison year. Table 5 contains a summary of results from the Gaston-Lincoln-Iredell subarea budget comparison. Table 6 contains a summary of results from the Cabarrus-

17

D R A F T

Rowan subarea budget comparison. Table 7 provides the same summary for the Mecklenburg-Union subarea. Emissions calculations were provided by DEQ. In every horizon year for every pollutant, the emissions expected from the implementation of the amended TIP and MTP are less than the emissions budgets for each MPO as adopted in the Maintenance Plan and established in the SIP. Of special note, the MTP project list for 2025 and the modeled future network for the 2026 regional emissions analysis consist of identical projects. 2026 is a SIP budget year and must be a MRM model run year in this conformity analysis.

Table 5 Gaston (partial) and Lincoln (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison

GCLMPO Emissions Comparison Summary (kilograms/day) Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2026 2,594 2996 2,408 2755 2035 1,365 2996 1,610 2755 2045 1,203 2996 1,448 2755

Table 6 Cabarrus (partial) and Rowan (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison

CRMPO Emissions Comparison Summary (kilograms/day) Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2026 3,432 3749 3,175 3762 2035 1,889 3749 2,220 3762 2045 1,718 3749 2,085 3762

Table 7 Mecklenburg, Union (partial) and Iredell (partial) Emissions to 2008 SIP MVEB Comparison

CRTPO Emissions Comparison Summary (kilograms/day) Year

NO x VOC MTP Emissions SIP Budget MTP Emissions SIP Budget

2026 8,993 9946 8,499 9690 2035 5,838 9946 6,319 9690 2045 5,779 9946 6,282 9690

The results of the emission comparisons are summarized for GCLMPO in Table 5, CRMPO in Table 6, and CRTPO in Table 7. The SIP emissions budget test comparison demonstrates conformity of the adopted metropolitan transportation plans and TIPs. DEQ’s emission summary spreadsheet, as well as detailed analysis

18

D R A F T

results by county (in MySQL database format) are contained in Appendix F.

Public Involvement and Interagency Consultation The 2045 MTPs are consistent with consultation requirements discussed in 40 CFR 93.105. Interagency consultation was a cooperative effort on the part of the Cabarrus-Rowan MPO, the Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln MPO, the Charlotte Regional TPO, the Rocky River RPO, the North Carolina Department of Transportation, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Transit Administration, and the Federal Highway Administration.

The Pre-Analysis Consensus Plan is a document agreed to at the initial interagency consultation meeting on June 21, 2018 and updated periodically. A subsequent interagency consultation meeting was held on August 13, 2018. Documents related to interagency consultation such as meeting minutes, consensus plan and the conformity process schedule is provided in Appendix E. Public review of this report was handled in accordance with each MPO’s public participation policy for the MTPs. Copies of all public participation policies are included in Appendix G. Comments from the public participation process, as well as agency comments will be incorporated into the final Conformity Analysis and Determination Report. Those comments will be included in Appendix H of the final report.

Conclusion Based on the analysis and consultation discussed above the following transportation plans and TIPs conform to the purpose of the North Carolina State Implementation Plan. In every horizon year for every pollutant in each geographic area, the emissions expected from the implementation of the transportation plans and TIPs are less than the motor vehicle emissions budgets established in the SIP. The result of the regional emissions analysis is provided Tables 2 through 7, and in Appendix F. The North Carolina SIP does not contain any transportation control measures (TCM’s). The MPO Adoptions, Endorsements, and Agency Determinations are kept in Appendix I.