1

2

Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States

Main messages

April 23, 2007

3

Significant progress toward MDG1

People in developing countries living on less than $1 a day

1489

12471172

1093 1120 1067985

721

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1981 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004 2015

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Perc

ent o

f pop

ulat

ion

Number of people Share of people

Globally MDG1 is on track (2015 forecast HCI=12%).

4

Regional progress differs sharply

East Asia has already surpassed the MDG1 target. Sub-Saharan Africa lags well behind the target.

Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) – East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)

Poverty - EAP

29.8

14.9

2.4

9.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day

Poverty - SSA

23.4

46.7

35.641.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day

5

Growth and Poverty Reduction Over Recent Period*

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

China Burkina Faso Brazil Mozambique India Nigeria Laos Peru

Annual Growth in GDP per capita Annual % Reduction in the Poverty Rate

The pace of poverty reduction depends on more than growth

* China: 1999-2004 Burkina Faso:1998-2003 Brazil: 1999-2002 Mozambique: 1996-2002

India: 1994-2005 Nigeria: 1996-2003 Laos: 1997-2002 Peru: 1996-2003

Source: World Bank – Development Economics

6

But also cautionary notes…Risks to positive outlook – unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit),

pandemic, oil price volatility.• Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural

assets. • Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction,

persistent fragility

Unadjusted and Adjusted Net Savings Rates by RegionFigure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in 2003

7

Progress on human development MDGs: But attention to quality of outcomes

neededProgress:

– Higher spending with major results: 34 million additional children in primary school since 2000; 550 mn vaccinated for measles.

Yet:– Child mortality--80% of

countries off-track – 10 million children under 5 die

annual of preventable causes.Quality focus:

– Cognitive skills not keeping pace

– Not a trade off with quantity– Needs monitoring, results focus,

incentives.

6th Grade Reading Performance on South African Regional Test

0102030405060708090

100

SouthAfrica

Uganda Namibia Malaw i

%

% ever enrolled% enrolled and achieved minimal literacy

Source: SACMEQ II (2000) and DHS

8

Better monitoring is needed to show progress in human development MDGs

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys

Annual % Reductions in Under 5 Child Mortality Rates

-1.3-1.0

-0.2-0.1

0.10.4

0.61.1

1.72.2

2.83.03.1

3.73.7

4.85.0

5.56.06.0

7.9

Kenya 1997-2003* Nigeria 1990-2003Cameroon 1998-04

* Chad 1996/7 -2004* Ghana 1998-2003

* Senegal 1997-2005* Guinea 1999-2005

Bolivia 1998-03* Colombia 2000-05

* Rw anda 2000-2005Mozambique 1997-2003

Bangladesh 2000-04Burkina Faso 1998-03* Tanzania 1999-2004

Morocco 1992-2003/04Indonesia 1997-2002/03

Philippines 1998-2003* Malaw i 2000-2004

Madagascar 1997-2003/04* Egypt 2000-2005

* Ethiopia 2000-2005

Annual % reduction required 1990-2015 to reach MDG 4

* New observations

9

Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are least likely to meet them

Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Fragile states

• Defined by weak governance and institutions. Often affected by conflict

• 35 states, 500 million people.

•Impact beyond borders. •Pose a dilemma for development community

10

Fragile states are the least likely to meet the MDGs

•Facing the largest MDG gap; 27% of extreme poor; nearly 1/3 of child deaths and children not completing school; ¼ of the HIV positive population

•Reforms approved for rapid response procedures, organization and staffing (WB).

•Need to implement these reforms, strengthen international partnerships, and deepen lessons on approaches.

Sources: World Bank Staff estimates

11

Gender equality is about fairness, opportunity, and smart economics

Tracking gender equality over time: 1990-2005Importance: Intrinsic value; economic value; broader linkages to development

Performance: Major gains in enrollment parity: 83 of 106 countries by 2005. Elsewhere performance lags: labor force participation, political representation.

Monitoring: Need for better indicators and greater monitoring effort.

Mainstreaming: requires realistic goals; leadership, technical expertise and financing.

SSA EAP ECA LCR MNA SAR

0.5

1

Share of w

omen

0.5

1Fe

mal

e to

Mal

e R

atio

Female to Male ratio in (S) SecondaryPar: Proportion Seats held by women in Parliament

2005 1990

Source: World Bank Indicators. The regional averages are calculated using the earliest value sandwiched between 1990 and 1995 and the latest value between 2000 and 2005. The averages are weighted by the country population size in 2005.

12

Aid quality and scaling up: actions lag far commitments

DAC Members’ ODA: 1990-05 and prospects 2006-10ODA: • Dimming prospects for doubling aid.

• aid concentration--most are not seeing increases.

•aid quality-- increasing fragmentation; earmarking; lack of predictability, inadequate ‘flexible aid’.

•Scaling-up: opportunities exist; the environment is improving; action points to collective failure of donors, developing countries, and IFIs.

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

2004

US$

billi

ons

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

% o

f GN

I

Bilateral Administrat ive Costs Contribut ions to M ult ilateralsOther ODA Technical Cooperat ionHumanitarian and Food Aid Debt Forgiveness GrantsNon-DAC ODA Projected Net ODAODA as a % of GNI Projected ODA as a % of GNI

DAC - ODA as a % of GNI (right axis)

Non-DAC ODA

DAC ODA

All data are preliminary

13

SomeDecrease(1%-5%)

New ZealandRomaniaGabonComoros

Overall trade restrictiveness is decliningTrade growth continued strongly; developing country export growth is outpacing the global average and countries barriers to trade in manufactures is falling, but

multilateral trade liberalization is stalled….

Small-No change

SomeIncrease(1%-5%)

Increase(>5%)

Decrease(>5%)

OTRI in 2000

Very Low (<10%) Low (10%-15%) Average (15%-20%) High (20%-30%) Very High (>30%)

MadagascarSouth AfricaUganda

NorwayEUIcelandCanada

OmanKoreaUkraineCosta Rica

Hong KongSri LankaTrinidad &Tobago

MoldovaIndonesiaSwitzerlandUSA

AlbaniaBruneiChileHonduras

KenyaMaliNicaraguaSaudi Arabia

El Salv. ThailandTurkeyZambia

Ethiopia

Malawi

Rwanda

BoliviaJapanBelarusGuatemala

Singapore

Burkina FasoGhanaKazakhstan

VenezuelaBangladesh

RussiaMalaysiaColombiaArgentina

PeruPhilippinesParaguayUruguay

AustraliaChinaPapua New Guinea

Brazil AlgeriaSenegalMexico

EgyptTunisiaMoroccoJordan

IndiaLebanonMauritiusCote d‘Ivoire

Nigeria

Tanzania

Sudan

Change in OTRI 2000-06

Change in Overall Restrictiveness 2000-2006

Data are available at: http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:21085342~pagePK:64214825~piPK:64214943~theSitePK:469382,00.html

14

Role and performance of IFIs is under pressure

Lending: Demand for loans increased in2006; but future of concessional capacity in question (MDB share of aid? MDRI impact? ).

Management for results: sustained focus but slow progress.

Gender equality: more focus (eg. GAP)but implementation lags design; andmainstreaming needs accountability.

Fragile states: need for more resourcesin balance with country capacity.

Gross Disbursements from M DBs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

US $ billio ns

Non-concessional

Concessional

15

Promoting Gender Equality Promoting Gender Equality and Empowerment of and Empowerment of

WomenWomen

Chapter 3 Main messages

16

Gender equality is measured in 3 domains:

Aggregate economic performance (poverty reduction, growth)

Gender equality in rights, resources and voice

HouseholdHousehold resource and task allocations

Fertility decisions

Economy & marketsAccess to land

Financial services

Labor markets

Technology

SocietyCivic and political participation

Leveling the field of opportunities

Domain of choices,

Domain of policy

17

Increased equality has intrinsic and instrumental value

Increased gender equality in households, markets and society

Increased women’s labor force participation, productivity and earnings

Improved children’s well-being

Future poverty reduction and economic growth

Current poverty reduction and economic growth

Differential savings rate

Women have better education and health

Mother’s greater control over decision-making in households

Better health and educational attainment & greater productivity as adults

Income / consumption expenditure

Women have better access to markets

18

A success story: Notable improvements in girls’ enrollments in last 15 years.

50

0

100

150

P S T P S T P S T P S T P S T P S T

Primary Secondary Tertiary

AFR EAP ECA LCR MNA SAR

19902005

19

However, some low income countries & fragile states will not meet MDG3 target.

Regional performance in attaining the primary and secondary enrollment target by 2005

Achieved target by 2005

On track to achieve target

by 2015

Off track or unlikely to

achieve target by 2015 No data Total

Sub-Saharan Africa 10 1 16 2 48

East Asia and the Pacific 13 0 0 4 24

Europe and Central Asia 22 0 1 2 27

Latin America and the Caribbean 27 0 0 2 31

Middle East and North Africa 8 0 3 1 14

South Asia 3 0 2 1 8

Total 83 1 22 12 152

of which: Fragile states 5 0 9 21 35

Source: World Bank estimates using data on enrollments between early 1990s and 2004/2005.

20

Official MDG indicators do not fully monitor gender equality and empowerment

Schooling gender gap among indigenous children in Bolivia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Age

Mea

n Ye

ars

of C

ompl

eted

Scho

olin

g

Male Non-Indigenous Female Non-IndigenousMale Indigenous Female Indigenous

• They exclude important elements of gender equality such as health.

• They poorly measure gender equality in education, employment and political participation.

• They monitor performance on national averages which can mask inequality within countries

Source: Duryea, Galiani, Nopo and Piras (2006)

21

Additional indicators - three filters:

•• Data availabilityData availability

•• Policy relevancePolicy relevance

•• ParsimonyParsimony

22

Recommended additional indicators for MDG3

Household Economy and markets

Modifications of official MDG indicators Additional indicators Additional indicators

Primary completion rate of girls and boys (MDG 2)

Percentage of 15-19 year-old girls who are mothers or pregnant with their first child

Labor force participation rates among women and men aged 20-24 and 25–49

Under five mortality rate for girls and boys (MDG 4)

Percentage of reproductive-age women, and their sexual partners, using moderncontraceptives (MDG 6)

23

Monitoring child mortality reveals additional problem regions

Female under-5 mortality rate and female to male ratio, 2004

Source: World Population Prospects 2004.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

South Asia East Asia andPacific

Sub SaharanAfrica

Middle East &North Africa

Europe &Central Asia

Latin America& Caribbean

Unde

r-5 m

orta

lity ra

te

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Fem

ale to

male

ratio

Female under-5 mortality rate Female to male under-5 mortality ratio

24

Countries rank differently in official and additional indicators

25

The unfinished agenda

Closing gaps in wellClosing gaps in well--being and opportunities for being and opportunities for girls and women in disadvantaged subgirls and women in disadvantaged sub--groups within groups within nations.nations.

Giving priority to SubGiving priority to Sub--Saharan Africa. Saharan Africa.

Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile states. states.

Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to measure progress (especially, in the domains of measure progress (especially, in the domains of society and the market and economy).society and the market and economy).

26

Implementation of gender policies in donor agencies & IFIs has been disappointing.

27

Way forward for donor agencies:

Selectivity in gender mainstreaming.Selectivity in gender mainstreaming.

Results orientation with strengthened M&E.Results orientation with strengthened M&E.

Stronger organizational arrangements for Stronger organizational arrangements for gendergender--specific actions and mainstreaming.specific actions and mainstreaming.

Synergies with aid effectiveness agenda.Synergies with aid effectiveness agenda.

28

IFIs can scale-up MDG3 agenda

Invest dedicated resources to include gender Invest dedicated resources to include gender in results orientation.in results orientation.

Play leadership role to monitor MDG3 at Play leadership role to monitor MDG3 at international level.international level.

Assist client countries in scaling up MDG3 Assist client countries in scaling up MDG3 interventions.interventions.

29

Thank you

The GMR and related materials are available at: http://www.worldbank.org/gmr2007