confronting urgent climate challenges · cfmip damip dcpp fafmip geomip gmmip highresmip ismip6...
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WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Confronting urgent climate
challenges
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
USA NAS April 2015
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
USA NAS April 2015
Observations
Models
CMIP
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project(CMIP6)
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Proposals from CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs & Model Groups’ Commitments to Participate in each MIP
Long Name of MIP (Short Name of MIP) 1 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) 2 Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) 3 Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) 4 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) 5 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) 6 Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) 7 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) 8 Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP) 9 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)
10 Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) 11 Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture MIP (LS3MIP) 12 Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) 13 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) 14 Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) 15 Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) 16 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) 17 Solar Model Intercomparison Project (SolarMIP) 18 Volcanic Forcings Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) 19 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) 20 Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System (DynVar) 21 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) 22 Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Advisory Board for CMIP6 (VIA AB)
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AerChemMIP
C4MIP
CFMIP
DAMIP
DCPP
FAFMIP
GeoMIP
GMMIP
HighResMIP
ISMIP6
LS3MIP
LUMIP
OMIP
PMIP
RFMIP
ScenarioMIP
SolarMIP
VolMIP
CORDEX
DynVar
SIMIP
VIAAB
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
2100 fo
rcing level (W/m
2 )
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
SSP1Environmentally
FriendlySSP2
<-‐Intermediate-‐>
SSP3Emissions
Cooperation
Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysSSP4Emissions
Cooperation
SSP5Emissions
Cooperation
~7
~3.7
CMIP5simulations
Future Scenarios in CMIP6
ScenarioMIP Tier 1 ScenarioMIP Tier 2
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Roemmich et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2513
Oce
an D
epth
, m
Global, Temperature anomaly
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Roemmich et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2513
Oce
an D
epth
, m
8 yrs
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Schuur et al. 2015doi:10.1038/nature14338
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Schuur et al. 2015doi:10.1038/nature14338
WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04
Slangen et al. 2014doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
CMIP5 (RCP 4.5): ocean heat, dynamics, atmospheric pressureObservations: regional land ice, land subsidence, GIA, gravity
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Greve et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NGEO2247
Combinations of E, Ep, & P data sets, 1984-2005
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Climate challenges the human spirit