the land use model intercomparison project (lumip)crop1 crop1 crop2 crop2 … roof sun wall shade...
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Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse
intheEarthSystem
TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)
Chairs:DavidLawrence(NCAR)andGeorgeHur;(UniversityofMaryland)
SSG:AlmutArneth,VictorBrovkin,KateCalvin,AndrewJones,ChrisJones,PeterLawrence,JuliaPongratz,SoniaSeneviratne,ElenaShevliakova
withinputfrommanyfromEarthSystemModeling,IntegratedAssessmentModeling,
andhistoricallandusecommuniOes
h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumip
Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse
intheEarthSystem
TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)
Muchabouttheimpactoflanduseandland-usechangeinclimateandthecarboncycleremainsuncertain…
…ashighlightedbyLUCID…
• 3
deNoblet-Ducoudréetal.2012,Boisieretal.2012
• 30-50%ofvariaOoninland-useclimatesignala;ributedtodifferencesinspecifiedlandusechange
• UncertaintyinLULCCimpactonTlargerthanforCO2• ModelsdonotagreeonsignofimpactonevapotranspiraOon• Modelsignorerelevantprocesses,e.g.irrigaOon
…andwithrespecttothecarboncycle(LUCID-CMIP5)
Brovkinetal..,J.Clim.2013
ChangesinlandcarbonstorageTotalDuetolandcoverchange
PgC
• DisparityacrossCMIP5modelsintermsofLCCimpactonC,eveninscenariowhereprescribedLCCwasrelaOvelysmall(RCP8.5)
• And,manyCMIP5modelsrepresentlandusesimplisOcally(w/owoodharvest,cropmanagement,irrigaOon,ferOlizaOon,shiaingculOvaOon)
• IndirectCimpactsasbigorbiggerthandirect(Mahowaldetal.2016)
LUMIPGoalsWhataretheeffectsoflanduseandland-usechangeonclimateandbiogeochemicalcycling(past-future)?
Whataretheimpactsoflandmanagementonsurfacefluxesofcarbon,water,andenergyandarethereregionalland-managementstrategieswithpromisetohelpmiOgateagainstclimatechange?
• Fossilfuelvs.landusechange• Biogeochemicalvs.biogeophysical
impactoflanduse• Impactsfromland-coverchangevsland
management• ModulaOonoflanduseimpacton
climatebyland-atmospherecouplingstrength(LS3MIP)
• ModulaOonofglobalCO2ferOlizaOonbyLULCC
• DirectvsindirectcarbonconsequencesofLULCC
• TotalradiaOveforcingfromLULCC
CMIP6QuesOons:HowdoesEarthSystemrespondtoforcing?WCRPGrandChallenge:Biosphericforcingsandfeedbacks,WaterAvailability,ClimateExtremes
LUMIPAcOviOes• DatastandardizaGon
– RepeatandmaturelanduseharmonizaOonprocessàenhancedland-usedatasetforCMIP6,passingmaximumamountofcommoninformaOonbetweenrelevantcommuniOes(Historical,IAMs,ESMs)
– ProvideaddiOonalrequiredlandmanagementdatasets– Dataoutput:newvariables,subgridland-useOlevariables
• Modelexperiments– Experimentsdesignedtoisolate,quanOfy,andunderstandlanduseandlandmanagementeffectsonclimate
• ModelmetricsanddiagnosGcs– Developmetricstoassess/quanOfymodelperformancewithrespecttolanduseimpactsonclimate
– SynthesisacOvitytodocumentexisOngmetrics
0.25°resoluOon850to2100
NewHistoryHyde4-basedLandsatF/NFconstraintMulOplecroptypes(5)MulOplepasturetypes(2)Updatedforestcover/biomassUpdatedwoodharvestUpdatedshiaingculOvaOon
NewManagementLayersAgriculture%croplandirrigated%croplandflooded%croplandferOlized(industrial)IndustrialFerOlizerapplicaOonrates%croplandforbiofuelsCroprotaOonsWoodHarvest%usedforindustrialproducts%usedforcommercialbiofuels%usedforfuelwood
7SupportedbyDOE-SciDAC
LandUseHarmonizaGonDataset(LUHv2)
A B
C D
GlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1
LUMIPExperimentalDesign
• Remove20millionkm2forestover50yearsfromtop30%forestareagridcells,starOngfrom1850control
• ControlledassessmentofcoupledmodelresponsetodeforestaOon
CESMMPI
1.IdealizedglobaldeforestaOon(GCM,Tier1)
Tair2m LAI
0C
Year Year
* indicates significant change at the 95% confidence level
No significant feedback in the CTRL simulations. With the HCF trigger PRECT↓
Chen et al., 2016; Chen et al., submitted
Representation of convective trigger alters land-cover change response
2.NoLULCCexperiments:Historicperiod1850-2015Coupledandland-only
• AssessimpactofLULCCinhistoricalperiodforwater,carbon,energyfluxesandclimate(C4MIP,LS3MIP)
• Assessland-onlyvscoupledresponsetohistoricLULCC(LS3MIP)• Assesshowland-atmospherecouplingstrengthmodulatesclimate,weather,extremesresponsetoLULCC(LS3MIP)
• RelevantfordetecOonanda;ribuOon(DAMIP)
CMIP6Historical
Land-onlyHistorical
CMIP6Historical
Land-onlyHistorical
Land management
Erb et al., GCB, 2016
~80% non-ice land area under land management
~25% non-ice land area undergone anthropogenic land-cover change
3.Landcoverchangevslandmanagementexperiments(Tier2)
Setofland-onlyhistoricsimulaOons(variantsofLMIP-Hist)withone-at-a-OmemodificaOonofparOcularaspectsoflandmanagement;Evaluateimpactoflanduseonfluxesofwater,energy,andcarbon
① Year1700insteadof1850start② NoLULCCchange③ Alternatelandusehistories④ NoshiaingculOvaOon⑤ Cropandpastureasunmanaged
grassland⑥ Cropswithcropmodelbutno
irrigaOon/ferOlizaOon⑦ NoirrigaOon⑧ NoferOlizaOon⑨ Nowoodharvest⑩ Nograzingonpastureland
⑩ NohumanfireigniOon/suppression11 Constant1850CO2(Ndep?)12 Constantclimate
LandUseChange ✗✗ ✗
| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science
Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes
(Thiery et al., JGR 2017)
• Only ~40% of irrigated water used by increased ET • 60% lost to runoff • Very likely not realistic
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
LUMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven
ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven
BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon
AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
LUMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven
ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 LUMIP Emissions-driven
C4MIP Emissions-driven
BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon
AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels
FulleffectsofLULCCthroughbothbiogeophysandbiogeochemprocesses
Land-usechangeimpactmetricsExample:DayOmeversusnighzmeresponsetodeforestaOon
Lejeuneetal.,J.Clim,2017
SynthesispaperledbyEdouardDavinandDavidLawrence(sortof)
underway
WillformbasisforLULCCassessmentinILAMB
h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumipLUMIPGoogleGroup(70members)
Subgridland-useGledatarequestLUMIPisrequesOngsub-gridinformaOonforfoursub-gridcategories(i.e.,Oles)forselectedvariablestopermitmoredetailedanalysisofland-useinducedsurfaceheterogeneity.Thefourcategoriesare:(1)Primaryandsecondaryland(2)Cropland(3)Pastureland(4)Urban
Selected Subgrid Variables (not the full list, see LUMIP website)
Biogeophysical variables tasLut – near-surface air temperature hussLut – near-surface specific humidity hflsLut – latent heat flux hfssLut – sensible heat flux rsusLut – surface upwelling shortwave (albedo) laiLut – leaf area index Bigoechemical variables, carbon stocks/fluxes gppLut – gross primary productivity nppLut – net primary productivity cSoilLut – carbon mass in soil pool cVegLut – carbon mass in vegetation cLitterLut – carbon mass in litter pool LULCC fraction changes fracInLut – fraction transferred into land-use type fracOutLut – fraction transferred out of LUT
LUMIP LUT vars requested for following expts • CMIP6 Historical (coupled and land-only) • ScenarioMIP • C4MIP scenario expts • LUMIP
STATUS Lut variables are included in latest CMOR tables versions
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Column
PFT
Urban Vegetated
Soil
ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
Roof
Sun Wall
Shade Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD HD
CLMGlingstructure
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Column
PFT
Urban Vegetated
Soil
ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
Roof
Sun Wall
Shade Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD HD
CLMGlingstructure
Pasture X
| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science
Sub-grid impacts
28/04/2017 Wim Thiery 24
LUMIP/LUH2Timeline
• 2016:October,kickoffwebinar
• 2017through2018:ModelsimulaOons
– Ideally,groupswouldrunland-onlysimulaOonfirstandbenchmarksimulated/imposedlandcoverOmeseries
– AlsopreferredthatgroupsruntheidealizeddeforestaOonexptearly
• 2017March:BetaversionsofLUH2harmonizeddatasetsforSSPsreleased
• 2017Ongoing:Transientland-useandidealizeddeforestspotchecks
• 2017Fall:beginanalysis(coordinaOonthroughLUMIPSSG,starOngsummer2017,askgroupstoregisterinterestinanalyses)
• 2017Land-usechangeimpactsmetrics/benchmarkssynthesispapers
• 2018Summer:possibleLUMIPmeeOngtopresent/discusspapers/analysis– AspenAGCI?
• 2018Fall:possiblejointLUMIP,C4MIP,LS3MIPmeeOng
– a;achtoCRESCENDOmeeOnginSeptemberinParis?
• 2021IPCCAR6?
AnnualChangesinGlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1
A B