Consumer and Market Insights: Bakery & Cereals Market in the US

CS1918MF May 2015

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Table of Contents

Introduction

• Classifications and definitions

• Methodology

Market Overview

• Macroeconomic indicators – Population and age structure, GDP and Consumer Price Index

• National retail and foodservice figures – Key Takeouts

• Market value and volume for the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Historical and projected consumption in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Comparison of the US Bakery & Cereals market to other key countries

• Degree of trade up/down-trade in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Market volume of US Bakery & Cereals, by category

• Historical and projected market value of US Bakery & Cereals by category

• Winners and losers in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Segment share of the category and change in market share in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Penetration of private label, by categories, in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Private label performance compare to national brands in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Leading companies in the US Bakery & Cereals market, by category

• Leading brands in the US Bakery & Cereals market, by category

Retailer and packaging

• Leading retailers in the US food market

• Leading distribution channels in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Leading distribution channels by category in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• US Bakery & Cereals market by type of packaging

• US Bakery & Cereals market by type of packaging closure/outer

• US Bakery & Cereals market by type of packaging, forecast

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Table of Contents

Demographic cohort consumption patterns

• Overall consumption occasions, by age and gender, in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Private Label consumption occasions, by age and gender, in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Under/Over-consumption levels in the US Bakery & Cereals market by gender and age

• Consumption frequency in the US Bakery & Cereals market by type of consumption

• Private label consumption by age and gender and comparison to overall consumption levels in the US

Bakery & Cereals market

Consumer trend analysis

• Degree of influence that consumer trends have on volume consumption in the US Bakery & Cereals

market

• Market volume of the US Bakery & Cereals market by category and trend

• For leading trends in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• Degree of influence trend has on volume by consumption by key demographic

• How the trend is influencing consumption in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• How to target the trend in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• How the trend will evolve in the US Bakery & Cereals market

Innovation examples

• New product example launches in the US Bakery & Cereals market

• New product example launches in the global Bakery & Cereals market

Actions and Recommendations

• How to successfully target key trends in the US Bakery & Cereals market

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Table of Contents

Appendix

• Country context

• Sector overview

• Category data

• Segment data

• Packaging data

• Category definitions

• Segment definitions

• Channel definitions

• An explanation of the sub-trends

• Methodology notes

• About Canadean

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Reasons to buy this report

This report brings together consumer analysis and market data to provide actionable insight into the behavior of consumers.

This is based on Canadean’s unique consumer data – developed from extensive consumption surveys and consumer group

tracking – which quantifies the influence of 20 consumption motivations within your industry.

Consumer trends analysis An overview of the key demographic groups driving

consumption in your industry, and what their motivations are

for doing so. This enables the reader to identify the most

important trends within the market and also determine

whether beliefs over what influences consumer behavior

within the category are accurate.

Future outlook The report provides insight to highlight the "so what?"

implications behind the data, and analysis of how the

need states of consumers within your industry will evolve

in the short-to-medium term future.

Recommended actions Strategic recommendations of how to capitalize on the

evolving consumer landscape are offered, allowing

product and marketing strategies to be better aligned with

the leading trends in the market.

Product innovation examples Examples are provided of innovative international and

country-specific product development within your

industry, with analysis of how these products effectively

target the most pertinent consumer need states.

Demographic analysis Key demographic groups driving consumption within the US

market are identified. The figures showcase the number of

Dairy occasions attributed to specific age groups and

genders, as well as identifying whether these demographic

groups "over" consume in the category.

Market sizing Market value and volumes are given over 2008–2018 for 10

leading countries across the globe. Coverage includes

major European markets, the US, and the emerging

markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

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Canadean has identified nine mega-trends that drive consumer choice and these can be broken down into 20 sub-trends

Aspiration

Beauty

Better Value

Busy Lives

Changing Age Structures

Changing Life Stages

Connection

Experience Seeking

Fun & Enjoyment

Individualism

Indulgence

Media

Technology

Trust

Urbanization &

Migration

New Gender

Behaviors

Personal Space & Time

Quality Seeking

Health

Ethics

MEGA-TRENDS:

CHANGING

LIFESTAGES

CONNECTIVITY

CONVENIENCE

ETHICS

EXPERIENCE &

ENJOYMENT

HEALTH &

WELLNESS

INDIVIDUALITY

TRUST

VALUE

The US Bakery and Cereals market is forecast to register moderate growth during 2014–2019

Market value of the US Bakery and Cereals

market, 2009–2019

Market volume of the US Bakery and Cereals

market, (Millions of Kg), 2009–2019

CAGR 2009–2014 XX%

CAGR 2014–2019 XX%

• The US Bakery and Cereals market is forecast at a CAGR of 3.1% during 2014-2019, recording a marginal

increase following on from a CAGR of 2.7% during 2009-2014

• Retail consumption, in volume terms, is expected to record a CAGR of XX% during 2014–2019, compared to

a CAGR of XX% between 2009 and 2014. Growing consumption in volume terms can be partially attributed

to an increase in per capita consumption levels

US$ million

2009 XXX

2014 XXX

2019 XXX

CAGR (2009–2014) XXX%

CAGR (2014–2019) XXX%

2009 2014 2019

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US Males are ‘heavy frequency’ consumers of Bakery & Cereals

Canadean has also broken down Bakery & Cereals consumption in the US by type of consumer:

Light consumption

XX consumption occasions

per week

Medium consumption

XX consumption occasions

per week

Heavy consumption

XX consumption occasions

per week

Breakdown of consumption by whether it is the

result of heavy, medium, or light consumption, by

gender, 2013

The busy schedule of the large population of

working men in the country is causing them to opt

for quick and easy food alternatives in the form of

Bakery & Cereals. Bakery & Cereals are

increasingly being seen as meal replacements,

often providing a healthy & nutritious option. Men

have a higher share of ‘Heavy frequency’

consumption compared to women, while ‘Medium

frequency’ consumption accounts for XX% of

consumption in both genders, offering

opportunities for marketers to increase

consumption occasions.

The heavy consumption frequency in the top

three categories by value is XX times per week

for Cereals and XX times per week in the Bread &

Rolls and Savory Biscuits categories.

Female Male

Light Medium Heavy

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The Busy Lives trend influences US$XX billion worth of Bakery & Cereals consumption in the US per annum

The Busy Lives trend influences XX Kg billion of volume sales in the US.

This accounts for XX% of all volume consumption within the category.

Income Leisure time

Gender

XX% XX%

US$XX billion

XX Kg billion

Age group

% of

consumption

by income

bracket

% of

consumption

by amount of

leisure time

0-9

XX%

10-15

XX%

16-24

XX%

25-34

XX%

35-44

XX%

45-54

XX%

55+

XX%

Influence of trend by category:

Baking Ingredients: XX% Baking Mixes: XX% Bread & Rolls: XX% Breakfast Cereals: XX%

Cakes, Pastries & Sweet Pies: XX% Cereal Bars: XX% Cookies (sweet Biscuits): XX%

Dough Products: XX% Energy Bars: XX% Morning Goods: XX% Savory Biscuits: XX%

Affluent

Better Off

Moderate Income

Hard Pressed

Rather Not Say

0-1 hours

1-3 hours

3-5 hours

5-7 hours

7+ hours

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Consumers are looking to convenient solutions to help facilitate their busy schedules

Bakery & Cereals that can be consumed on the go are

popular among consumers

The busy lives of consumers is leading to an increased demand

for convenient and ready-to-eat Bakery & Cereal products.

Consumers want tasty goods that do not require refrigeration,

can be consumed on-the-go, and provide energy and satiety.

This need is particularly important during breakfast time, when

consumers look for a quick and easy boost to start their day.

Families are increasingly turning to Energy Bars and Cereal

Bars as a source of morning upliftment. The easy to consume

nature of the product as well as the different varieties make them

a popular option for families. These Bars are looking to be an

alternative to traditional breakfast meals, saving busy

consumers time in preparing, consuming, and cleaning. A desire

for convenience is also driving consumers to look for on the go

snacking solutions such as cookies and cakes that they can

carry with them to work, providing a tasty, rejuvenating break

during the day.

Consumers are also seeking effort-saving solutions in categories

such as baking mixes, as this allows them to cook fresh, tasty

treats, without having to assemble multiple ingredients from

scratch or spend a long time studying recipes and mixing

ingredients. This is driving the demand for products formulated

to be fast-cooking.

This White Chocolate

Macadamia Nut Energy Bar

meets the needs of those

looking for an early but

convenient boost. It comes in

a pack of 12 meaning less

frequent shopping trips.

This ready crust allows

consumers to save on

time when making

dessert. The crust is

already made allowing

consumers to simply

add their filling.

Large packs of Energy Bars target those

that are pushed for time

Pre-prepared bases saves busy

consumers on time

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What trends will increase in importance over the next 10 years?

Fun & Enjoyment

Consumers in the US enjoy

‘being involved’ with specific

products and making the most

out of their experience. This is

likely to be enhanced as more

innovative products will be

introduced by manufacturers.

To combat feelings of stress or

busy lives, consumers are

increasingly looking for quirky

products that they can interact

with and form a close

association with. Younger

consumers in particular will be

enticed by novel product

innovations.

Health The Health trend relates to the

idea that consumers will become

more aware about the physical

impacts of certain products and

their general wellbeing. They will

be inclined to look for products

that provide health benefits. In this

regard, they will consume

products that are made with

natural ingredients, sugar-free,

low in fat, and are not genetically

modified. Therefore, the Bakery &

Cereals industry should

increasingly offer products that

address health issues.

Quality Seeking

The inherent nature of

consumers to seek out premium

and high quality products has

always existed but has been

given less emphasis in recent

years as consumers seek out

cheaper alternatives. As

confidence returns, and

financial wellbeing increases,

the search and demand for

superior quality Bakery &

Cereal products will increase.

However, the rise in private

labels and the perceived quality

amongst consumers may hinder

quality seeking in more

recognized brands.

Canadean predicts that the following secondary drivers will rise in importance over the next decade to

become increasingly influential motivators of consumption within the market.

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Summary Methodology

MARKET DATA

• Method: Analyst triangulation of

consensus numbers based upon

comprehensive primary and desk

research as part of an international

research program.

• Coverage:

• 50 Countries fully researched

• Category and segment breakdown

• Eight channels

• Value and Volume data

• Internationally comparable data

• 100% standardized definitions

CONSUMER DATA

• Method: Extensive consumption surveys

and consumer group tracking with strict

age and gender quotas to ensure

nationally-representative results.

• Coverage:

• 10 Countries

• 20 Consumer Trends

• 26 Consumer Groups

• Category breakdown

• Integrated market sizing at the

country and category level

• Interim 2013 Consumer data

generated by mapping 2013 Market

size data onto 2012 Consumer data

consumption values

Details on the methodology for both of these research programs can be found in the Appendix.

This report is comprised of two data research programs

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