Market situation

Cereals

AGRI C 4 Committee for the Common Organisation

of Agricultural Markets

25 June 2015

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Exchange Rates

2

Euro Dollar exchange rate

3

01/07/20141.3688

27/05/20151.0863

1.1204

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 01/15 02/15 03/15 04/15 05/15 06/15

Spot, ECB reference

-18.1%

Euro and Dollar Russian Rouble exchange rate

4

RUB/USD

53.78

RUB/EUR

60.07

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/14 01/15 03/15 05/15

Source: Thomson Reuters

Euro and Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate

5

UAH/USD

21.49

UAH/EUR24.14

7

12

17

22

27

32

37

01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/14 01/15 03/15 05/15

Source: Thomson Reuters

6

Baltic Dry Index

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

23/06/2015: 790Baltic Dry Index

Cereals Forecasts

7

8

World wheat: USDA

World Production

World Consumption

167

203 199 199

176190

200 202 (203)

6078 75 70

51 5664 62 (62)

682686

652

697

659

717

726 722 (719)

641

650

655

697680 704

716 720 (717)

570

590

610

630

650

670

690

710

730

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.

Mio tMio t

Source: USDA June report

World

Ending Stocks

of which

8 major exporters

9

USDA: Wheat production forecast

151

55 58

2923 26

13 12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

EU Russia USA Canada Ukraine Australia Kazakhstan Argentina

Mio t

All wheat

Source: USDA June

2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.

10

World maize: USDA

World Production

World Consumption

149 144128 133

135

175

197 195 (192)

43 4329 25 21

3148 45 (44)

799

819832

887

868

991999

989 (990)

782

823

850

883865

953977

991 (990)

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

0

100

200

300

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.

Mio tMio t

Source: USDA June report

World

Ending Stocks

of which US

11

USDA: maize production forecast

346

75 68

26 25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

USA Brazil EU Ukraine Argentine

Mio t

Maize

Source: USDA June report

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.

Cereals Prices

12

Market News 1. (25-06-2015) Russia/Ukraine

- RUS: export tax as from 1 July 2015 = 50% of the price minus 5,500 RUB ( 90) but min. 50 RUB per tonne Current prices: 193 $ (fob; 10,200 RUB), inland 171 $ (exw; 9,200 RUB)

- RUS: 14/15 exports at 29.6 Mt of grains (+18%), incl.: 21 Mt of wheat (18.2 Mt); (1 Mt since 15/05 when exp tax cancelled)

5.2 Mt of barley (2.55 Mt) and 2.9 Mt maize

- RUS: 15/16 forecasts: total grains 95-99 Mt, incl. 55-59 Mt wheat and maize at around new record of 11-12 Mt.

- UKR: no plans for administrative exp. limits, instead memorandum (gov' & traders) on exportable quantity

- UKR: 15/16 f'casts: 57-60 Mt grains, incl. wheat of 22 Mt

13

Market News 2. (25-06-2015) Russia

14

RUS wheat export tax 1-07-2015

Exp price (fob) in RUB per tonne Price in EUR/t exp duty equals (RUB/t) exp duty in EUR/t

(1 $ 53 RUB; 1 61 RUB)

11000 180 50 0,8

11100 182 50 0,8

11200 184 100 1,6

12000 197 500 8,2

13000 213 1000 16,4

14000 230 1500 24,6

Export tax = [(wheat price in RUB / 2) - 5500 RUB] min. 50 RUB per tonne

Market News 3. (25-06-2015)

- AUS (15/16): mostly favourable weather for winter crops Wheat: 23.6 Mt (23.7 Mt last year); exports: 16.5 Mt (16.4 Mt 14/15)

Barley: 8.2 Mt (8.0 Mt); exports: 6.7 Mt

- ARG: 1 Mt wheat approved for exports 14/15 bringing total to 4.7 Mt. 15/16 wheat area to decrease to 5 M ha.

- BRA: due to favourable conditons safrinha maize crop estimated at 50-52 Mt, with total put at 80 Mt. Local maize demand is around 56 Mt and exports are seen to exceed 20 Mt.

15

Market News 4. (25-06-2015) Maghreb / Iran

- Tunisia: grain production to fall by 40% to 1.4 Mt (2.34 Mt previous year, 1.85 Mt 5-year average). Imports to reach 2.3 Mt (1 Mt durum, 1.1 Mt wheat)

- Algeria: suspended imp. duties on animal feed until 31/12/2015 incl. maize and soybeans as drought hits grain crop. 3.4 Mt grain f'cast in 2015.

- Morocco: 75% wheat imp. duty could be extended beyond 31/10 as good harvest is expected ( 11 Mt grains)

- Egypt: 5.3 Mt local wheat pruchased vs. 3.7 M target

- Iran: 15/16 wheat import to fall sharply (to 1.5-2.0 Mt -gov' estimate - from 5 Mt) due to improved local crop

16

17

Selected cereals trade for the past 4 weeks Country

Crop Quantity (in tonnes)

Price

($/t)

Origin(s) Delivery

Date

Egypt wheat 240 000 191 (fob) - - 180 000 RUS

- - 60 000 ROM

July

Egypt wheat 60 000 199,5 (c&f) - RUS July

Egypt wheat 180 000 192 (fob) - - 120 000 ROM

- - 60 000 RUS

July

Ethiopia wheat 400 000 221-222 (c&f) Possibly Black Sea Jul-Sept

Tunisia wheat 92 000 195-199 (c&f) Optional Jul-Sept

18

World cereal prices ($/t)

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

01/2014 03/2014 05/2014 07/2014 09/2014 11/2014 01/2015 03/2015 05/2015

$ /

to

nn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 193

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 216

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 201

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 175

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 177

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ no

19

CME wheat: open interest and

net position of traders

- 100

- 80

- 60

- 40

- 20

0

20

40

60

80

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Th

ou

sand

s o

f co

ntr

acts

(o

f 136 m

etr

ic to

nnes)

Millio

ns

of co

ntr

acts

(136 m

etr

ic to

nnes)

WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

Open Interest Managed money and other rep. - Net positions

Last value from: 2015-06-16

20

US CME SRW wheat futures

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

Daily volume

JUL 2015 (R)

DEC 2015 (R)

JUL 2016 (R)

192

198

207

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

10/06/15 14/06/15 18/06/15 22/06/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

Last 14 days

21

US KCBT HRW wheat futures

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

0

20

40

60

80

07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes)

Kansas (KCBT) HRW Futures

Daily Volume

JUL 2015 (R)

DEC 2015 (R)

JUL 2016 (R)

195

205

216

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

10/06/15 14/06/15 18/06/15 22/06/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes) Last 14 days

22

EU Milling Wheat Futures

160

180

200

220

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15

/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 50 to

nnes)

Euronext - NYSE (MATIF Paris) milling w heat futures

Daily Volume

SEP 2015 (R)

MAR 2016 (R)

SEP 2016 (R)

185

188

192

173

176

179

182

185

188

191

194

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

10/06/15 16/06/15 22/06/15

/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 50 to

nnes)

Last 14 days

23

World maize export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)

125

175

225

275

325

qu

ota

tio

n in

o

r $ / t

on

ne

Black Sea Feed - $ 174

US 3YC Gulf - $ 177

AR Feed Up River - $ 169

BR Feed Paranagua - $ 173

24

CME maize: open interest and

positions of traders

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Th

ou

sand

s o

f co

ntr

acts

(o

f 127 m

etr

ic to

nnes)

Millio

ns

of co

ntr

acts

(127 m

etr

ic to

nnes)

CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

Open Interest Managed money and other rep. - Net positions

Last value: 2015-06-16

25

CME maize futures

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

0

160

320

480

640

800

11/12 05/13 11/13 05/14 11/14 05/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 127 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) Maize futures

Daily volume

JUL 2015 (R)

DEC 2015 (R)

JUL 2016 (R)

145

150

160

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

10/06/15 14/06/15 18/06/15 22/06/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 127 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) Maize futures

Last 14 days

26

EU maize futures

120

140

160

180

200

220

0

2

4

6

8

10

06/13 09/13 12/13 03/14 06/14 09/14 12/14 03/15 06/15

/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 50 to

nnes)

Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures

Daily Volume

AUG 2015 (R)

JAN 2016 (R)

AUG 2016 (R)

164

169

176

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

10/06/15 16/06/15 22/06/15

/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 50 to

nnes)

Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures

Last 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 days

27

Imports: 15.1 mio t (18.1 mio t last year; 16.4 mio t two years ago) 3.1 mio t soft wheat 2.7 mio t durum wheat 9.1 mio t maize 76 000 t barley

Exports: 45.7 mio t (38.2 mio t last year; 27.9 mio t two years ago) 32.1 mio t soft wheat 8.7 mio t barley 1.0 mio t durum wheat 3.6 mio t maize

So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 30.6 mio t,

against 20.1 mio t last year and 11.5 mio t two years

EU Commitments 2014/2015 (52 weeks)

Conclusions

- Cereals prices firmed on weather concerns (heavy rains in US, dryness in Western EU and Canada)

- Black Sea is now the cheapest origin for wheat

- RUS: wheat export tax on 1-07-2015

- USDA 15/16 forecast: higher wheat, stable maize vs. May

- Import demand might decrease in some key EU wheat export destinations (e.g. Iran)

28

Thank you for your attention!

Balance sheet updates & market presentation

available:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm

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