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ContentContent
Background
StudyResults
Next Steps
33
ICAO role and actions in previous crisis timeICAO role and actions in previous crisis time
October 1973 oil crisis: oil price increased by 400% and oil production decreased by 240%
Early 1974: ICAO Council approved a Recommendation to States to take the following actions
Examine the air navigation and air traffic control procedures over their territories so as to reduce as much as possible flying distances and air traffic delays, according to identified 6 measures
Achieve maximum coordination on fuel supply so as to ensure that the operation of air services be maintained at the level required in the public interest
Where restrictions on aviation fuel supply have to be imposed, give priority to commercial air transport;
Refrain, on a basis of reciprocity, from discrimination against airlines of other countries in the distribution of available fuel at their own airports; and
Consider favourably proposals by airlines of special measures requiring government approval such as amendments to schedules, limitation of frequencies or consolidation of routes, where motivated by the fuel crisis.
1977: ICAO Assembly adopted a resolution (A22-27) calling on the Council to collect and make available to Contracting States relevant information on the subject
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
World air traffic World oil supply
1st Iraq War
Oil CrisisIraq-Iran War
World annual traffic trillion RTKs
Source: ICAO, BP
Financial crisis
Hurricanes
Oil Shock
1970-1980:8.7% p.a.
1980-1990:6% p.a.
1990-2000:5.6% p.a.
2000-2008:4.4% p.a.
Air travel demand and oil supply in crisis timesAir travel demand and oil supply in crisis times
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Air travel fuel consumption growthUntil now not inversely correlated with oil priceCorrelated with state of global economy (GDP growth)
Air travel fuel consumption growthAir travel fuel consumption growthUntil now not inversely correlated with oil priceUntil now not inversely correlated with oil priceCorrelated with state of global economy (GDP growth)Correlated with state of global economy (GDP growth)
Fuel consumption and economic growth
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
8019
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
09 M
TD
Oil
pric
e gr
owth
in %
-1012345678910
Fuel
pric
e &
GD
P gr
owth
in %Real oil price growth Fuel Consumption growth
Real GDP @ PPP*growth
Source: ICAO, EIA and HIS/Global Insight*PPP: Purchasing Power Parity is an economic theory linking currency exchange rates to prices paid for goods and services in any two countries.
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Study results published in 1979 in Circular 149-AT/52.Study results published in 1979 in Circular 149-AT/52.
Based on multiple sources available, the study looked into :
The patterns of global energy consumption
Projections for oil demand until end of the 20th century
Oil reserves
World oil trade and supply
Alternative energy resources
Aviation fuel supply
Trends and prospects in oil prices
Aspects that would impact the civil aviation fuel requirements in the following decade and in a longer term
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Impact of oil priceImpact of oil price
ASSUMPTIONS
Despite fluctuations in oil price a long-term price trend was defined
Reflects gradual adjustment of demand resulting from conservation measures and the development of other energy sources.
Future aviation fuel price trends uncertain
Competing needs for fuel from other transport modes.?
That could change the price relationships between aviation fuel,gasoline and distillate fuel dependant upon demand developments.
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$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007
Oil
pric
e (U
S$ /
Bar
rel)
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
47
Fuel consumption (US Gallons)
Nominal oil priceReal oil priceInternational Air travel fuel consumption
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007
Oil
pric
e (U
S$ /
Bar
rel)
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
47
Fuel consumption (US Gallons)
Nominal oil priceReal oil priceInternational Air travel fuel consumption
Oil price evolution and air travel fuel efficiencyOil price evolution and air travel fuel efficiency
International ServicesFuel Efficiency 2000-2007
-1.4%
International ServicesInternational ServicesFuel Efficiency 2000Fuel Efficiency 2000--20072007
--1.4%1.4%
Oil price 2000-2007
9.8%
Oil price Oil price 20002000--20072007
9.8%9.8%
International ServicesFuel Efficiency 1978-2000
-2.9%
International ServicesInternational ServicesFuel Efficiency 1978Fuel Efficiency 1978--20002000
--2.9%2.9%
Oil price 1978-2000
-1.6%
Oil price Oil price 19781978--20002000
--1.6%1.6%
Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable, EIA
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Air traffic forecasts scenarios predicted in 1978Air traffic forecasts scenarios predicted in 1978
0
100
200
300400
500
600
700
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007Wor
ld tr
affic
in B
illio
n R
TKs Historical traffic
1978-2000: 5.9%
Low-case scenario:
5.1% 1978-2000 (three fold)
Source: ICAO
1978 traffic forecasts scenarios vs historical traffic evolution1978 traffic forecasts scenarios vs historical traffic evolution
1978 High case scenario 8.5% 1978-2000 (six-fold)
Assumptions for air travel demand driversEconomic growthDeclining fares in real terms in line with the trend of oil price between 1978 and 2000Route network expansions with more direct routing Higher service frequencies and reduced travel times
Assumptions for air travel demand driversEconomic growthDeclining fares in real terms in line with the trend of oil price between 1978 and 2000Route network expansions with more direct routing Higher service frequencies and reduced travel times
Stud
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esul
ts
1010
0102030405060708090
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fuel
bur
n
Fuel consumed (USG) Fuel Low Scen Fuel High Scen
Fuel consumption and fuel efficiency
Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable
Stud
y R
esul
tsFuel Efficiency (in Fuel burn per RTK)
Period 1978 Low Scenario Historical 1978 High Scenario1978-1990 -1.9% -1.7%1990-2000 -1.8% -2.2% -2.4%1978-2000 -1.9% -2%2000-2007 -2.2%
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Adequacy of supplies for aviation fuel demandAdequacy of supplies for aviation fuel demand
More specifically, the major conclusions were:
End 2000, aviation fuel consumption would represent 5 to 10 % ofprojected total oil consumption;
Future civil aviation fuel needs will depend on the proportion of the production which can be refined to meet civil aviation specifications;
Demand for aviation fuel towards end 2000 might be higher than 10 to 15 % of total oil supply and only 10 to 15 % of total crude oil production can be converted to kerosene; and
If the prospective availability of aviation fuel had not been adequate, there would have been a need for remedial measures such as broader technical specifications to aviation fuel or the use of synthetic fuels
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Oil supply and air travel consumption shareOil supply and air travel consumption share
Source: ICAO, CAEP Scenarios to 2050 (preliminary figures), EIA
0102030405060708090
100110120
1980 2005 2015 2030
MB
rl pe
r day
Total Oil supply Transportation share Air travel share
Nex
t St
eps
2005-20301.2%
2005-20301.7%
2005-20301.2%
1313
GIACC/3 request for fuel consumption data under Article 67 mechanismGIACC/3 request for fuel consumption data under Article 67 mechanism
Article 67 defines the ICAO mandate to collect data from each Contracting State, based on the “carrier principle”, i.e. from commercial carriers (to be submitted by the State in which a carrier has its principle place of business),
ICAO Statistics Programme is addressed in Appendix B of Assembly Resolution A36-15 precising that:
ICAO must examine on a regular basis the statistical data (referring to “statistics on airline operations”) collected
Establish the necessary metrics to monitor the performance of the organization in meeting its Strategic Objectives
Fourteenth meeting of the Statistics Panel (STAP/14) convened inMarch 2009 to provide recommendations to the forthcoming Tenth Session of the Statistics Division, to be held in November 2009
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CHALLENGES
Issue of possible duplication of requirements and additional burden placed on Contracting States to report fuel consumption data both to ICAO and the UNFCCC
Complex UNFCCC principles for collecting emissions data, based on country of departure rule
Annex I countries (62% of total traffic) should report emissions while non-Annex I countries should report them to the extent possible
In that context, based on the UNFCCC principle of country of departure, fuel sale data are the only information available by country of departure
CHALLENGES
Issue of possible duplication of requirements and additional burden placed on Contracting States to report fuel consumption data both to ICAO and the UNFCCC
Complex UNFCCC principles for collecting emissions data, based on country of departure rule
Annex I countries (62% of total traffic) should report emissions while non-Annex I countries should report them to the extent possible
In that context, based on the UNFCCC principle of country of departure, fuel sale data are the only information available by country of departure
STAP/14 recommendation: Data collection on fuel consumption to be implementedSTAP/14 recommendation: Data collection on fuel consumption to be implemented
RESPONSES
Introduction of a new form for reporting fuel consumption by commercial air carriers.
Addition of an item regarding aircraft type (passenger versus all-cargo).
Inclusion of an item related to alternative fuels share in total fuel consumed (by aircraft type).
Regular assistance to be provided to States regarding the collection and analysis of data, in the form of workshops, on-the-job training and other assistance requirements
RESPONSES
Introduction of a new form for reporting fuel consumption by commercial air carriers.
Addition of an item regarding aircraft type (passenger versus all-cargo).
Inclusion of an item related to alternative fuels share in total fuel consumed (by aircraft type).
Regular assistance to be provided to States regarding the collection and analysis of data, in the form of workshops, on-the-job training and other assistance requirements
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ConclusionConclusion
Crisis periodicity is shortening from a 10 year period to less than 8 years period and the current economic crisis impacts on air travel fuel consumption have to be carefully analyzed
Need to monitor closely fuel consumption, and fuel efficiency through an ad hoc annual data collection, as recommended notably by the Assembly resolution A22-27
Need to implement air travel forecasts enabling sensitivity analysis to economic growth but also to oil price
Need to explore how , e.g. airport and airspace constraints could impact the current unconstrained forecasts
Continue to follow-up the economic restructuring of the air transport industry in order to determine any potential impact on ICAO Strategic Objectives
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