contents december 2014/atm… · december 2014 atmasphere | 1 contents letter from the president...

25

Upload: others

Post on 25-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page
Page 2: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1

CONTENTS

Letter from the President - Page 2

Editor’s note - Page 3

Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page 4

RSI, A better Oscillator than MACD by Rajat Dutta - Page 8

Phi trend trading system by Sujoy Sikder - Page 12

Can Oil be an Investment forever by Sumeet Jain – Page 15

Advanced Trading strategies – Book review by Sahil Vijay - Page 17

Past and Present Events – Page 20

This newsletter is produced by the Association of Technical Market Analysts. All comments and editorial material do not necessarily reflect the organization's

opinion nor does it constitute an endorsement by the Association of Technical Market Analysts or any of its officers, of any products or services mentioned. Sources

are believed to be reliable at time of publication, but not guaranteed. The Association of Technical Market Analysts and its officers, assume no responsibility for

errors or omissions.

Page 3: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

2 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT

Dear Colleagues,

Greetings of the Festive Season! May the coming New Year, 2015, bring each of us to accept change even more so & embrace new beginnings with greater

warmth. May the creative best in each come out, since we are, at least in the context of equities, in unchartered waters in majority of the world's markets.

Yet, in embracing change and in welcoming creativity, it is useful to carry with us the cherished values of integrity, ethics and professionalism. The same

way that a balance between the ego & the id brings by an achieving professional, I have come to believe a similar balancing approach between modernity &

tradition, between innovation & standards, between conventional & the path-breaking help turn effort into achievements.

Here's to all the readers of the ATMAsphere, their families, colleagues & dear ones, a Very happy New Year 2015!

Sincerely,

Sushil Kedia

Page 4: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 3

EDITOR’S NOTE

In this issue -

1. Prahsant Shah illustrates a powerful method of taking trades based on poles in point and figure analysis, a timeless price representation

2. Rajat Dutta gives his take on the age old debate about finding the better indicator between RSI and MACD.

3. Sujoy Sikder makes his debut on ATMAsphere with a great first article about divine geometry and explains the system made from it.

4. Sumeet Jain tries to make a reality check, about the concept of forever in the investment world by stating the example of crude and can it or anything else

be an investment forever and after that.

5. Sahil Vijay explicates Lawrence O Connor’s book “Advance trading strategies”.

ATMAsphere is your platform to learn & to teach. In fact, when you teach you learn better by handling curiosities of younger minds. So do write out to me

sending in your articles and we can all learn from each other. We await your feedback on ATMASphere. Please let us know what we can do to deliver content

that meets your needs by sending an email to [email protected]. You can also subscribe to ATMASphere completely free by clicking here.

Sincerely,

Gunjan Duaa.

Page 5: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

4 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Poles: Important P&F setup!!

Point & Figure is known as the oldest method of charting. It doesn’t take

time or volume in to account, but plot the price in the form of ‘X’ and ‘O’ that represents uptrend and downtrend respectively.

P&F patterns are objective, well defined and relatively easy to read. Double

Top Buy and Double Bottom Sell signals are the basic buy and sell patterns

of P&F charts. These are shown in Image 1 - Combination of these basic

signals, generate various trading setups. Pole is another formation that is

very important to understand but is mostly ignored by the practitioners

due to its assumed complexity.

Pattern explanation

Pole is a reversal pattern and there are two types of poles.

1) High Pole - Bearish reversal pattern

2) Low Pole - Bullish reversal pattern

In the Image no.2 both the formations are shown. Pattern rules for High

Pole are as follows:

1) Double Top Buy Signal

2) Breakout column of 'X' rises by least 5 boxes above high of previous

column of 'X'

3) Immediate column of 'O' that retraces breakout column of 'X' by 50%

Pattern rules for Low Pole are as follows:

1) Double Bottom Sell Signal

2) Breakout column of 'O' falls by at least 5 boxes below low of previous

column of 'O'

3) Immediate column of 'X' that retraces breakout column of 'O' by 50%

Page 6: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 5

Pole pattern is completed the moment 50% retracement happens. Authors

have different opinions on this formation and methods of trading it. Some

want 5 boxes and some are comfortable with 3 boxes more than previous

column extreme. Some talk about congestion required before the

formation though they apply subjectivity while defining that congestion.

There are also various discussions on 'entry' based on this pattern and

different exit rules to trade it. Few have ignored this setup completely. But

I believe this is very important setup to understand from trading point of

view.

Trading Poles

More than entry, it is a pattern that calls for exit. Which is according to me

is the most difficult and critical element of trading and systems. P&F gives

definite rules for exit. One shall not remain long in the trade if a Basic sell

signal or High Pole is occurred. One should exit all Shorts if Basic buy signal

or Low Pole has been formed.

The reason I call it important setup from trading point of view is that there

can broadly be two types of trend reversals. Either 'M','W' shapes or 'V'

shapes reversals. 'M','W' will be triggered by basic signals and 'V' shape will

be handled by Poles. Strong trends don’t witness a correction at times and

produce large columns. The Trader, who follows only the basic signal will

have his stop placed too far in this scenario and eradicate all profits if it is

triggered. Pole comes as a savior to handle these kinds of scenarios.

Poles are 'Exit' pattern hence one should exit the trade the moment Pole is

occurred that happens at mid value of previous long column. Stop on

'Entry' based on Pole patterns are generally wide and not very easy to

follow. Few authors suggest entry upon formation of Pole with the stop

placed at column reversal because waiting for negation of Pole will make

stop placed too far and unaffordable.

But I don't find it useful setup for entry. Just like bearish candlestick

patterns or negative divergences, High Poles also keep occurring in an

uptrend. They represent price correction (not sideways) and it is usually

healthy in overall uptrend. Hence more assessment or some sort of

confirmation is required to decide entry. But Pole also indicates weakness

in trend if sustained. It can be filtered with trend lines and number of

occurrences above trend line. Like more than 3 occurrences indicate

exhaustion etc. But there is no point in making it unnecessarily complex &

subjective. I have another method to define it in a simple manner using

P&F objectivity.

What happens after Pole helps us in assessing the setup for entry. Follow-

through shall happen if reversal has got the strength. In simple words,

Enter Long upon Basic Buy signal after Low Pole. And Enter Short on Basic

Sell signal after High Pole. Image 3 explains the setup.

This setup provides very nice and logical formation for entry. It also gives

favorable risk reward ratio and produce column eligible to plot vertical

count that make us aware of count direction as well. Please note that Basic

signals need not be followed immediately after Pole. Sometimes they occur

after some congestion that helps in timing the trade with risk reward in

favor. This is explained in Figure 5 of Bank Nifty P&F chart.

Page 7: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

6 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Examples

Figure 1 is P&F chart of AL BK that show Low Poles in Blue Square along

with counts and trend lines applied from them. Figure 2 is Rcom P&F chart

that shows High Pole with vertical counts applied from them & it also

explains entry and stop from High Poles as per our discussion to follow

subsequent basic signals. Figure 3 of Bank Nifty is perfect example of how

rule of waiting for basic signal after Poles can help us in time the trade

well. Figure 4 is Tata steel chart that shows Negation of Pole and entry

after formation Low Pole. All charts are recent daily 3 box reversal P&F

charts plotted with 0.25% box value.

Page 8: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 7

Negation of Poles

Negation of Pole is an example of Pattern failure. High Pole is negated

when highest box value of formation is breached. Same way, Low Pole is

negated when low of the formation is broken. As they say, pattern failure is

pattern in itself and provide evidences for and against the trend.

P&F patterns are product of Box values. Poles lose the importance when

higher box values are used. It should be ignored or rule of 3 box can be

applied in such cases.

If column of 'O' in case of High Pole generates Double bottom signal in the

same column then I call it an engulfing column because it is a case of

immediate retracement of more than 100% of previous move. High Pole

immediately followed by Low Pole or vice versa is known as Opposing

Poles. These setups need separate discussion.

Poles complete the exit setup of P&F. And help us in exploring various

patterns & their combinations for entry. Even back testing becomes handy

due to definite exit criteria.

“Prashant Shah is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) awarded by Market Technicians Association

(MTA) and International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA)

respectively. He is practicing trading and analysis since more than 10 years

now and working extensively on timeless charting techniques. He can be

reached at @prashantshah267 or [email protected].

Page 9: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

8 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

RSI, A Better Price Oscillator than MACD

Most traders are unaware there are three types of oscillators used

for stock analysis. These are based on three different data streams –

Price Oscillators that use price and time data,

Volume Oscillators that use quantity and time,

Hybrid Oscillators that use price, quantity, and time.

There are innumerable price and time indicators and many are

oscillators, but one stands out from all the rest – Relative Strength

Index (RSI). It is not the most popular, but it is the best price

oscillator for short-term trading, and it is ideal for all trading styles,

making it one of the most versatile. How the formula is calculated

makes it unique among the many price and time oscillators available

for trading.

Oscillators by their very nature are generally best used as short-term

trading indicators. Long-term investing should not use oscillators for

overall analysis of a long term position, however, Volume and Hybrid

oscillators can be used for entries and exits of a long term position

because they use quantity in their formula.

Most traders assume that oscillators have one function. The most

basic and elementary interpretation for oscillators is to determine

when a stock is overbought or oversold. I will take you beyond that

simple analysis, to explore how the exceptional price and time

oscillator RSI can outperform MACD as a momentum indicator.

The reason traders should look for momentum indicators other than

MACD is because High Frequency Traders (HFTs) regularly use

algorithms that track retail-trade orders using MACD. When found,

they then front run the orders, which are more slowly executed than

the HFT millisecond trading, which then drives price ahead of the

retail trader’s ability to enter or exit the stock. This heavy use of MACD as a primary HFT strategy caused many professional traders to

abandon MACD a long time ago.

The lesser used RSI indicator, originally created by Welles Wilder, has

several “knock-off” versions with minor changes made by other indicator creators. It is best to use the “original” indicator rather than a knock-off, as empirical evidence continues to show weaker

analysis with the knock off indicators.

RSI has not been as popular with retail traders as MACD because

most charting software systems and training seminars only teach the

single-line RSI analysis of overbought at the 70% line and oversold at

the 30% line. However, this amazing indicator has far more

usefulness when a subordinate indicator or secondary RSI line is

added to the chart.

The RSI indicator is one of the originally constructed indicators (aka,

24 Primary). It is not a variation of a primary indicator created for

stock trading. Therefore it can be used with other primary indicators,

or any subordinate indicator a trader wishes to use. How this is then

constructed depends upon the trading style or styles to be used, the

intent of the trade, the duration of the trade, and the experience as

well as educational level of the retail trader.

The chart example below (see end of article) combines a longer RSI

with a shorter RSI, which is similar to how MACD is constructed.

What makes RSI completely different from MACD is that the Moving

Page 10: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 9

Average Convergence and Divergence indicator is based on moving

averages crossing, one shorter and one longer.

RSI has a unique quality because it is

a comparative or relational indicator, since it leads price, rather than

just a moving average crossover, which tends to lag price, meaning

price must move before the indicator can cross over.

This indicator leads because RSI compares the current price to the

previous price based on the period setting. In this instance, the chart

shows a 15-day relational comparative price analysis, which is ideal

for Swing Trading, and a 25-day relational/comparative price

analysis, which is ideal for Position Trading.

I add a second, longer RSI of 75 to both, which can also be adjusted

as needed. Now, the RSI chart window not only has a high line of 70

and a low line of 30, but also a floating center line, which is

extremely useful for crossover signals and confirmation patterns.

Crossovers occur sooner, and confirmation of trend continuation is

much more reliable than other oscillators or momentum indicators.

When used in this manner, RSI is far superior to MACD. It provides

better entry signals and a clearer holding pattern when stocks shift

sideways.

The second chart example below shows RSI/RSI confirming that this stock is going to move

up, while MACD is showing a signal for the stock to move down.

Page 11: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

10 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Therefore traders using MACD would exit, while traders using RSI would

hold consequently earning excellent profit. The third chart example shows

the results.

Another aspect of RSI that is unique to this type of relational

comparative price oscillator over any momentum indicator like

MACD, is the fact that the line can and does form an extreme top or

bottom shape in the chart window. This is a hugely important trigger

signal for short-term Swing and Momentum traders, as it allows for a

much earlier entry before a stock moves up.

The fourth chart example shows a very common V bottom formation of

price which frequently forms prior to a Momentum or Platform price action.

RSI clearly signals several days ahead of MACD allowing the trader to enter

far sooner and earn higher profits during sideways market conditions ahead

of huge velocity runs. Even one day leading can make a huge difference in

profitability at the end of the month for a retail trader. By watching for

bottoming formations for example V and W, as well as Head & Shoulders in

the RSI chart window, a trader can enter even before the crossover occurs.

RSI is the most versatile of all the price and time oscillators currently

available to retail traders. Each trader should consider their own

unique trading style, parameters, and rules to adapt each indicator

to their personal use and thereby create a professional set of

indicators for themselves. Every professional has his or her own

unique indicator set.

If a trader needs assistance in setting up his or her indicators with

custom period settings and parameters, they should seek guidance

Page 12: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 11

from a professional on the best practices and methods for his

indicator tool kit.

Trade wisely …

Rajat Dutta is a system designer & a fund manager for Moneyrizing

Wealth Management Company. He is a trader since 1998. His Specialty is

trading micro trend with a focus on analyzing and trading Stock’s, Options & Commodities. He can reached on Twitter Handle @Moneyrizing & email:

[email protected]

Page 13: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

12 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Phi Trend Trading System :- A simple trading

system based on divine geometry

Overview:-

The ratio 1.618(Phi) or it’s inverse 0.618(phi) is the divine ratio which is a common factor which quantifies

relationships between various fields of study like biology,

astronomy, geometry, architecture, laws of nature, life in

general and also financial markets ,which expands and

contracts in relation to phi and its derivative, the Fibonacci

numbers.

The system which I call the phi trend trading system is

focused on 0.618(phi) and its complement ratio 0.382. The

essence of the system is to enter trends during

retracements in the direction of the main trend that is

timing the trade correctly.

phi Trade set-ups

It is pretty easy to spot a strong dominant trend in any

instrument at hindsight but the question is at point of the

trend would a trader enter and capture the highest

probability moves knowing he will not be caught in a

counter trending move.

The key entry criteria of this trading system is 38.2 %

(61.8%) Fibonacci retracement level in the direction of the

strong dominant main trend. But the problem trading with

38.2 % level or any other Fibonacci level alone can be very

frustrating for a trader since it can either confirm or reject

a market direction.

To filter out the weak entries we introduce another simple

confirmation tool in the form of moving averages.

Entry rule

Plot moving averages along with Fibonacci levels. I

generally follow 34 , 43 and 55 SMA depending upon the

instrument and time frame. Generally using Fibonacci

numbers as moving averages with Fibonacci levels give a

confluence of high probability entries.

The trade is triggered when price retraces to the 38.2 %

(61.8 %) Fibonacci retracement level or near it and also

touches the moving average .The moving average should

always have a slope and not flat or very widely curved.

This will ensure you are entering a trade in the direction

of the major dominant trend.

Page 14: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 13

Illustration 1

Stop Loss

Two closes below the 38.2 % and the moving average can

be used as a stop loss. A more precise way to determine

stop loss and filter out throwbacks or spring backs is to

further divide the main 38.2 % and the next 23.6 %

retracement level into Fibonacci levels. A close below 61.8

% retracement of the secondary sub-division can serve as

a permanent stop and can filter out a lot of whipsaws.

Illustration 2

Illustration 3

Page 15: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

14 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Target

Once the trade has been triggered the higher/lower

Fibonacci levels are reference targets

Pros and Cons of the phi Trend Trading system

Cons

1) It does not capture the entire trend only a part of it.

2) Trade set ups are limited in number and requires a

lot of homework to spot potential candidates and

the patience to wait for them.

3) It takes time and back testing to get the combination

of moving averages right with the instrument.

Pros

1) It is a simple yet a powerful trading system with a

single rule entry and easy to execute.

2) High probability trade entries.

3) Lesser number of whipsaws

Some pointers to use the system

1) 34, 43 and 55 SMA generally gives the best results

for several instruments and with other Fibonacci

levels also.

2) This was the simplest form of the system. One can

experiment with oscillators and additional

parameters to further refine the system.

3) Most importantly be patient with the system and

track all the potential candidates diligently till you

get the entry trigger. Patience translates to profits in

phi trading.

4) The power of simplicity is the most understated

quality .Keep it simple.

About the author

Sujoy Sikder is a CFA and has cleared all three levels of CMT. He is an

independent prop trader for the last 7 years . He uses mainly

Fibonacci Levels, Moving Averages ,Bollinger Bands and Renko

charts. He can be followed at twitter @mechie_in

Page 16: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 15

Can Oil be an investment forever?

Investopedia defines Crude Oil as naturally occurring

unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits, in

shades of black and yellow with a ranging viscosity, many times

referred to as “Black Gold”.

I will sincerely admit, out of the long boring definition the

words that caught my eye were “Black Gold”. Gold! Really?

Let me put up a disclaimer at the very beginning: If you think

we are going to discuss Oil prices and outlook here, you may be

disappointed.

World over there is a huge demand for Crude Oil. And it is

ever increasing. Depending on its properties like specific gravity and

its sulphur content, Crude Oil is mainly classified into WTI (West

Texas Intermediate) Crude and Brent Crude. These two are assorts of

a benchmark for Crude, widely used and widely traded. Crude Oil

producing countries classified in two, namely the OPEC and non-

OPEC, where OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in September 1960 by five

countries namely Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia

and Venezuela. They were Founder Members of the Organization.

These countries were later joined by Qatar (1961), Indonesia

(1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969),

Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975) and Angola (2007).

This tells about the supply side. On the demand side the

largest consumers of Crude Oil are the US and next is China and

India. Below is the world supply-demand graph of Crude Oil. Its

pretty clear that the supply is able to keep up its pace with the

demand.

Source: Bloomberg, ACMIIL Research

From time to time we hear and read articles on how Crude

Oil is a limited resource and in no time the wells will go dry. This type

news certainly affects the prices. Other factors affecting the prices

are wars, pipeline damages and such issues. Everyone is aware of

these issues and lots of alternatives are being searched. There are a

couple of them, which have already been successfully implemented

too! The US is now discovering a large resource of Shale Oil Gas, and

some pilot projects for commercial production are underway.

Page 17: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

16 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

There is a big league of environmentalists working round the

clock, all over the world, in convincing everyone to use clean energy

resources. This forces us to think, will there be a dependency on

Crude Oil – Forever? Well we have all the facts and figures in front of

us, but what is really going to happen; only time will tell!

Sumeet Jain, CMT is currently working as a sell side analyst at

Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates catering to both

institutional and retail clients. He has more than 8 years of market

experience and has been a active contributor on both print and

electronic media. He can be reached at [email protected]

Page 18: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 17

Book Review “ADVANCED TRADING STRATEGIES”

- Laurence.A.Connors.

The Book in question is a must have in the library. The book

covers multiplicity of factors such as trading psychology,

studying market patterns, designing winning trading strategies

to name a few. This book is a combo pack of everything one

wishes to learn and develop as a skilled trader.

The book starts with a very realistic note by saying that there is

no holy grail in the markets to success, rather success much

more dependent upon having a trading method that meets the

following three criteria:

1. The method must be conceptually correct. 2. It must provide you with a small edge. 3. Most importantly, the method must be able to manage the

bad tail.

Section One on S&P and Stock Market Timing identifies when the stock market is at psychological extremes and likely to reverse.

In second chapter, Connors Vix Reversal! is depicted which does a solid job of identifying short-term market tops and bottoms. Another methodology that uses the VIX to measure overbought and oversold conditions. The "Connors VIX Reversal II" (CVR II) adds the use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the VIX to provide insight into another way to time entries more precisely. Then comes the explanation of CONNORS VIX REVERSAL III. Volatility is mean reverting. This means periods of high volatility are likely to revert back to their normal levels and periods of low volatility also revert back to their normal levels. The author found that this concept is an inherent feature of the VIX. The author found that by applying the reversion to the mean principle, one can predict the market behavior. By combining the three reversal methods, one can identify reversals in the stock market on a more efficient basis. Chapter 3 reveals another magnificent method to time the overall market through Trin Thrust. The TRIN measures a ratio of the number of advances and declines on the NYSE and relates those totals to the up-and-down volume activity in the stocks. It simply looks at the daily percentage change in the closing TRIN from yesterday to today to predict the market direction for the next two trading days. In chapter 4, the author delebrates on Percent Advance/Decline Indicator to depict market extremes and take a low risk high profit trade. The beauty of the analysis and explanation is that despite of n number of indicators, the trigger is pressed once the market price action confirms to the indicators. The second section of the book takes up Volatility in greater detail. Chapter five beautifully elaborates on modifying Trade Size and Stop Placement based on volatility measures. The next chapter enlightens the readers with the most important aspect of successful trading i.e Trading where the action is. The chapter provided great insight as to where and when trading should be concerned depending upon volatility of the markets. The author then goes on to elaborate on filtering false volatility signals.

Page 19: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

18 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Then in Section three, the author depicts and elaborates newer patterns like 1-2-3-4 pattern which is a wonderful setup which allows you to climb aboard strongly trending markets after they have had a brief pullback, The "B-Day High/Low Reversal Method" and the "Spent Market Trading Pattern" are setups that identify times when markets are likely to reverse. These methods are of great value to analyst and traders and have a very good money management and position sizing system in built. Later on, the author gives detailed strategies on equity trading, like Cash burn and profit trading strategy to name a few. The author does not hold here but goes on to depict Option strategy for a short term trader The book elaborates great amount of work like 15 minute breakout strategies, trading options with VIX and other volatility measures, the book teaches the lesson of humility by adding a masterpiece work on Reversals off the morning call to adapt to the sudden changes in the market conditions. The book explores trading runaway moves, exhaustion gaps, advances trading strategies to accomplish one a perfect trader in every market condition and trade in all market set ups. The book concludes with explaining the role of practice, experience, and psychology play in leading one to become a superior trader. The book clearly embarks the most important ingredients to be a successful trader: first one needs to understand market dynamics before creating a trading methodology. The principles such as volatility reverting to its mean and when it is extremely low you trade breakout strategies and when it is extremely high, you trade strategies to exploit price implosion are great insights. The book enlightens us with the time test truth that markets are made up of human beings and human beings are irrational. To be a successful trader, one needs to have this book in his or her library for sure. I strongly recommend my fellow colleagues to must read this book.

Sahil Vijay, CMT is in the financial markets for the last nine years and

currently working as a Treasury Analyst with Capital Bank. A Banker by

profession he looks after Investments and takes trading decision in Debt,

Equity and Foreign Exchange markets. He uses Elliot Wave Theory, Gann

Studies, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Analysis and Momentum Oscillators like

RSI to drive confluence points in various markets to establish low risk –high

yield set ups, he also include inter market analysis and global indices in his

study to draw better understanding of the under currents in global

financial markets.

Page 20: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 19

Accessible on your favorite Gadget!

World's FIRST E-Library of Technical Analysis

Some of the latest e-book additions in the Library:

As a well rounded professional you surely wish to read on

negotiation techniques, VBA programming, Statistics,

business biographies, investment classics and a whole host

of subjects. Yes, the R.N. Elliott ATMA E-library of Technical

Analysis regularly stocks up on varied titles that take care of

holistic professional interests of Technical Analysts!

The R. N. Elliott ATMA E-library of Technical Analysis

Inaugurated on 6th

October 2012, at the hands of Mr. Robert

Prechter, Jr. the world’s first E-library for Technical Analysts continues

to grow.

A world that is short on time to travel, you can check-out books,

return them as now you have the E-Library that you could access for

ethically obtained, copyright respecting readings using any of your

favorite devices: Whether based on windows, apple, android, kindle

or even nook!

Access E-books as well as audio-books on Technical Analysis, Trading

Strategies, Quantitative Finance, and Back-testing, Algorithmic

Trading, Investment Psychology, Hedge Funds, Behavioral Finance &

lots more!

ATMA Members & Affiliates, except for the student

affiliates, can access the library 24X7 by just logging into

ATMA’s website. In case you still don’t have your PIN No. , please feel free to contact ATMA Office and enjoy reading!

Page 21: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

20 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

PAST EVENTS’ UPDATES

CHAPTER DATE SPEAKER TOPIC

Delhi 31-08-2014 Dr Sanjay Sinha Elliot& Fibonacci –

Understanding

The Eternal

Relationship

Bengaluru 07-09-2014 Mr. Krishna Rao P

S

Using Trendlines

and Fibonacci

Mumbai 20-09-2014 Mr.Atul Suri Trading for a

Living

Mumbai 08-10-2014 Mr. Ambareesh

Baliga

The Games

Promoters Play -

In the market as

well as in the

financial accounts

Delhi 02-11-2014

Mr. Sachin

Aggarwal

Stock Markets,

Charts and Profit

Making

Page 22: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 21

Page 23: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

22 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014

Page 25: CONTENTS December 2014/ATM… · DECEMBER 2014 ATMASPHERE | 1 CONTENTS Letter from the President -Page 2 Editor’s note - Page 3 Poles : Important P&F setup by Prashant Shah - Page

24 | ATMASPHERE DECEMBER 2014