coordinated ground-based and space observing systems toward natural disaster forecasting and/or...
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COORDINATED GROUND-BASED AND SPACE OBSERVING SYSTEMS TOWARD NATURAL DISASTER
FORECASTING AND/OR MONITORING OF MULTIHAZARD SEIMOGENIC RISKS
P. Nenovski1, D. Teodosiev2, F. Hruška3, J.Chum3, J. Laštovička3, U. Villante4, M. Vellante4, K. Schwingenschuh5, M. Boudjada5, I. Cholakov1, V. Wesztergom6 ,
A.Sinha7
1 Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria2 Space Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria,
3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic4 Universiuty of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy,
5 Space Research Institute, Graz, Ausrtria6 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Sopron, Hungary
7 Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India
The proposed regional observing system could be related to:
FP7 THEME 9: SPACE
Activity: 9.1 Space-based applications at the service of European society
Area 9.1.1: Pre-operational validation of GMES services and products
Work should focus on building on the existing achievements of GMES, especially core
service geo-information provision, and conduct research exploring innovative new
geoinformation derived products and service lines, or upgrade existing service lines in the
light of new geo-information products.
FP7 THEME 6: ENVIRONMENT
Activity 6.4 Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development
Sub-Activity 6.4.1 Earth and ocean observation systems and monitoring methods for the
environment and sustainable development
Area 6.4.1.1 Integration of European activities within GEO
ENV.2009.4.1.1.1 Contribution to observing systems for seismogenic hazards
The regional measuring system is focused on risks typical to
seismic regions, mainly earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, floods,
etc.
The overall objective is to specify, design, implement and validate a
generic usage of information for production and exchange of data
products capable for risk prevention and risk event management.
Main seismic regions in Europe are Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey,
FYR Macedonia, Portugal, etc.
The concept of space observing systems toward natural disaster
forecasting and/or monitoring of seismogenic risks is based on
multipoint measurements of crucial parameters on ground and in the
high atmosphere and ionosphere.
Physical parameters sensitive to earthquakes, landslides, etc. are:
magnetic field components usually measured with sampling frequency
of 1 sec; ionospheric parameters – every 15 min; ionosphere
disturbances from ~10 sec to ~1 hours measured by Doppler shift
sounding of the ionosphere at the frequency of 3.59 MHz; and
infrasound measurements of pressure fluctuations with sampling
frequency 25 Hz and operation range of periods ~0.1 sec to ~30 min.
Actually, magnetic field measurements are conducted under the South
Europe Geomagnetic Measurement Array (SEGMA) which includes
Austria, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria and covers 41-46 N LAT and 13-24
LONG.
The usual trends in data are easily eliminated, the local ones remain.
Unfortunately, the latter are of different quality and quantity.
Various methods of data analysis are thus required.
Applying statistical and other non-linear approaches, preliminary
conclusions can be drawn about the relevance of local (unusual)
changes of the parameters indicative for specified natural disaster.
Magnetic field and ionospheric data have been used and testified for
earthquake prediction and warning.
We selected a set of such data and demonstrated the ability and
reliability of common analyses of polarization, detrended fluctuation
analysis (DFA) and other ones to determine a reliable set of physical
parameters for earthquake warning system.
A base for increased interoperability between regional seismic
monitoring systems in Europe, India, etc can be built being capable for
a natural risk management.
This base will be capable to request and ingest raw input data, process
the input data into products suitable for risk prevention/crisis
management, distribute the products within the network - if required,
exchange products with other data system operated by different
methods and/or organizations.
Geophysical Institute and Space Research Institute at the Bulgarian
Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the
Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, University of L’Aquila, Italy,
and Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India,
have long term experience in geomagnetic, ionospheric and
electromagnetic measurements on ground and in situ (satellite-
based) and data analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric and
ionospheric processes indicative for impending earthquakes.
We have an experience and facilities to monitor magnetic field and
ionospheric variations and work as a partner in future projects
toward such an European activity.
Dr Petko Nenovski, DSc
Geophysical Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
Acad. G. Bonchev, str., 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: [email protected],
Dr Dimitar Teodosiev, PhD
Space Research Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
6 Moskovska, str., 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: [email protected],
Thank you for your attention