coping with the global warming - keio...

Coping with The Global Warming

Climate Change group

Hiro Kawato

Yoichi Ikeda

Tomohiko Iwasaki

Tomonori Momiyama

Yoko Miyazaki

Introduction

At Marrakech in Morocco, the 7th session of Conference of the Parties (COP7) was

held from October 29, 2001. The world is just advancing for settlement of global

warming. In COP7, many undecided things were discussed toward the entry into force

of the Kyoto Protocol adopted in COP3.

Based on such condition, we will examine what correspondence Japan should take for

global warming in this paper. In chapterⅠ,we will check the shame of the global

warming which surrounded the world. And in chapterⅡ, we will analyze the present

actions of Japan and clarify the subjects. In Japan, domestic measures following

“fundamental principles for promoting measures toward global warming” have been

carried out now. Among them, we will take notice of measures for reduction of energy

origins CO2 and examine whether the domestic measurers are performed sure enough.

To tell the conclusion, we think that it is difficult to reduce as fundamental

principles under measurers present, since the institution of nuclear power plants

are not progressing as planned, and since the increase of CO2 emission from

“residential and commercial” and “transportation” sections are remarkable. Then

in chapterⅢ, we will propose that Japan should review the fundamental principles

themselves. And we will conclude this paper after clarifying the points that should

be regarded in that case.

Chapter 1 The Climate Change

1. The characteristic of the Climate Change

Greenhouse gases and aerosols are emitted unavoidably due to our daily life and

economic activities today. As a result, the rise of the temperature of the atmosphere

and the surface of the earth affects the Global Environment. This is called the Climate

Change (Global Warming).

Since the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols are related to the energy

consumption intimately, it isn’t just a problem of the Global Environment, but also

an energy and economic problems. Moreover, the impacts will affect overseas and the

future generations. It could be said as the problem that the whole people in the world

must solve in a unit.

2. Scientific facts ～from the IPCC Third Assessment Report～

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last

50 years is attributable to human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), an environmental organization that monitors the available information

about climate change, has announced the Third Assessment Report in 2001. According

to the report,

•

•

•

•

•

the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6±0.2℃ over the 20th

century (figure1-1).

The global average sea level rose between 0.1 to 0.2 meters during the 20th

century.

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31% since

1750.

There has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness during late summer

to early autumn in recent decades.

And based upon emissions scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios

(SRES), it also says

By 2100, carbon cycle models project atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 540 to 9701

ppm for the illustrative SRES scenarios.

1 Comparing with 280 ppm, the CO2 concentration in 1750, it is an increase of 90 to 250%.

•

•

•

The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to

5.8°C over the period 1990 to2100.

Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters between 1990

and 2100.

Carbon cycle models indicate that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

at 450, 650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic CO2 emissions to drop

below 1990 levels, within a few decades, about a century, or about two centuries,

respectively, and continue to decrease steadily thereafter. Eventually CO2

emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions.

Figure1-1 the variations Earth’s temperature

A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

However, the world is in a situation witch is difficult to reduce the CO2 emission,

even to the level of 1990.The figure1-2 shows the world’s CO2 emission and its

estimation. The world’s emission of CO2 will keep increasing, and in 2020, the level

of the emission will reach to the level of 70% increase comparing to 1990. Also,

the increase of emission from the developing countries will increase very rapidly,

and by 2010, it will over take the emission from the OECD countries. Even if the Kyoto

Protocol comes into force, the countries not included in Annex1 will not have any

emission limits during the first budget period.

Furthermore, Global mean surface temperature increases and rising sea level from

thermal expansion of the ocean are projected to continue for hundreds of years after

stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (even at present levels), and because

of thus, there will be a serious damage on Hydrology and Water Resources, Agriculture

and Food Security, Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems, Coastal Zones and Marine

Ecosystems, Energy and Industry, Human Health, Human Settlements and Insurance and

Other Financial Services. The Climate Change is an exigency witch the world must deal

with.

Figure1-2 the world’s CO2 emission and its estimation

2850 3157 3535 3907

1290935 1024

1646 2447

3547

4886

827

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1000011000

1990 2000 2010 2020

mill

ion t

on-C

OECD countries countries in transition developing countries

The IPCC Third Assessment Report

3. The World Tends in International Negotiations

Next, we describe the world tends in international negotiations to show how

international society has tackled global warming.

(1) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

As the first international action for global warming, United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, and came into force in

1994. Japan signed it in June 1992, and joined it in May 1993.

UNFCCC has several material ideas, and they have largely affected the subsequent

negotiations for global warming.

Firstly, it says in article2 that the ultimate objective of the Convention is

“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that

would not prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

It has not solved what level would not prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference

with the climate system, and although the further investment is required, many

scientists in the world bear 550ppm, which is the twice before the Industrial

Revolution.

Secondly, the article2 of UNFCCCC also says that the ultimate objective above

should be achieved “within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt

naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and

enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” This time-frame

cannot be concretely decided, since it is greatly dependent on the net emission (total

emission – removal by forest and so on) of greenhouse gases involved with the future

human-induced activities.

However it would be necessary to take concrete actions immediately in the states

mainly developed countries which can devise the measures now, if we consider the time

lag since measurers are build till the effects appear, or till the whole world

including developing countries come to take actions.

The third point is “common but differentiated responsibilities”, which is in

article3.1 of the Convention. It is a principle that both developing countries and

developed countries have to assume some responsibilities on global warming and take

actions, because all countries concern emission of greenhouse gases and all countries

would also get adverse effects. But developed countries should have larger

responsibilities, because global warming was mainly caused by industrialization of

developed countries. Based on this principle, UNFCCC set up the aim for developed

countries to introduce the actions to restrain the amount of greenhouse gas emission

on a level in 1990 by the end of 1999. On the other hand, it imposed developing

countries only fundamental obligations such as grasping own emission and notifying

them to secretariat of the Convention. And the idea that developed country should

take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects, was shown.

The forth point is “prevention principle”. Article3.3 of UNFCCC prescribes

that “where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full

scientific certainly should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures”.

Global warming has irreversibility. It means that it is impossible to return to

former condition when it has exceeded a limitation. Therefore even if it is

scientifically uncertain, measures should be devised in its early stages. It is the

prevention principle.

(2) Kyoto Protocol

The 3rd session of Conference of the Parties (COP3) was held in Kyoto in 1997,

and the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. In this Protocol, restrictive target for each

country was determined, as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases at least 5% to

1990 level in countries included in AnnexⅠ, which consists of member nations of OECD

at that time and economies in transition, in the first commitment period (2008-2012).

Japanese target is 6% reduction, that of US is 7%reduction, and that of EU is 8%

reduction. The Kyoto Protocol also approved the Kyoto Mechanism-emission trading,

joint implementation (JI), clean development mechanism (CDM). It is an international

system to make it easier to achieve the targets.

However, about the detailed rules, such as, how to deal with the Kyoto Mechanism,

how to count the absorption by sinks, what measures should be taken if a country

doesn’t comply the target, and how to assist developing countries, were not decided

in COP3, and left to a future negotiations in Conference of the Parties.

ChapterⅡ Verification of the measure against 6% reduction

In chapter Ⅰ, we have clarified the seriousness of global warming and introduced

how the world tackled the problem. It is one of the most important things for the

world to unite and tackle in the long run against global warming. Kyoto protocol is

the first tackle in the world that prescribes the upper-limit of GHGs emission.

Moreover, if we take it into consideration that the amount of emission from developing

countries will be located in a line with OECD countries in 2010, it is indispensable

to impose upper limit of GHGs emission on developing countries after the first budget

period. Therefore, developed countries must show them positive results first in the

first budget period. So we want to verify whether it is possible for Japan to achieve

the target -6% reduction of GHGs emission with present measures when Japan ratifies

the Kyoto protocol.

1. The specification of -6% reduction.

Japanese government examined about domestic measures in the “Global Warming

Prevention Action Plan” in June 1998 toward -6% reduction under the Kyoto protocol.

The present domestic measures are performed along with these “Global Warming

Prevention Action Plan”. The table Ⅱ shows specification of the 6% reduction. The

important points are to refrain energy origin CO2 to ±0% and to keep use of the Kyoto

mechanism to -1.8%. Then I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-1. This shows the amount of GHGs

emission from each sector. When seeing this, it turns out that the energy origin CO2

occupies most GHGs of whole Japan. Furthermore it turns out that the growth of

residential and commercial sector and transportation sector is remarkable. Moreover

the amount of energy origin CO2 emission in 1990 is 287,000,000t-C, and if special

measures are not taken (BAU), the amount will increase in 60,000,000t-C, and it will

be 347,000,000t-C. 60,000,000t-C increase corresponds to about 17.8% increase

compared with the amount of emission in 1990. Therefore, how Japan will reduce this

energy origin CO2 holds the key of -6% reduction. Then in this Ⅱ, we want to verify

whether each sector can act as Global Warming Prevention Action Plan chapter focusing

on energy origin CO2. Moreover Japan’s marginal reduction cost is said to be the

highest in the world. Therefore Japan will be able to achieve the reduction target

with lower cost when Japan makes the best use of Kyoto Mechanism. (for details, Ⅲ

chapter describes). However, it is defined to the Kyoto mechanism shall be

supplemental to domestic actions. Therefore, in Global Warming Prevention Action Plan,

the utilization of the Kyoto

mechanism is refrained to 1.8%. We verify whether this number is reasonable in chapter

3.

Fig.Ⅱ-1 The amount of GHGs emission from each sector

electricity generationsector

industry sector residential andcommercial sector

transportation sector CH4・N2O・non-energy origin CO2

Increase of other gases(HFC・PFC・SF6)

22.36

127.90

80.45

72.27

33.00

12.55

20.73

135.00

71.45

57.27

31.36

13.91

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00GHGs（1,000,000t-C）

1990

1998

The energy origin CO2

Source ”The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”

Fig. Ⅱ-2 Global Warming Prevention Action Plan

electricity generation sector +5%industry sector -7%regidential & comertial sector ±0%transportation sector +17%

CH4・N2O・non-energy origin CO2Increase of other gases (HFC・PFC・SF6Revolutionary technology improvementRemovals by sink

Covered by Kyoto Mechanisms

Items Targets

+2%-2%

redu

ctio

n by

dom

estic

mea

ures en

ergy

orig

in C

O2

-3.7%-1.8%

-6%

±0%

-0.5%

Source “Global Warming Prevention Action Plan”

2. The energy origin CO2

As mentioned above, in order to refrain energy origin CO2 to ±0%, it is necessary

to reduction 60,000,000t-C. The specification serves as 3,500,000t-C in the *** sector,

and serves as 16,500,000t-C in the industry sector, served as 27,300,000t-C in the

residential and commercial sector, and served as 12,700,000t-C in the transportation

sector.

(1) Energy conversion division (electric entrepreneur)

a. The status quo

The amount of CO2 emission discharged directly by energy conversion sector

is about 100,230,000t-C. About 30% of the whole CO2 discharge of Japan is formed

(figure Ⅱ-1 inner side). However, it is set to about 7% at a rate after distributing

the amount of CO2 emission (after electric power distribution) discharged by power

generation to each sector according to electric power consumption (figure Ⅱ -1

outside). In the industry sector, the residential and commercial sector, and the

transportation sector, the data after electric power distribution are treated.

Although the amount of CO2 emission discharged from an energy conversion division

is greatly influenced by the diversification of energy demand, its reaction by power

supply composition is also large. Generally by the tackle of measures against energy

in other divisions, an energy conversion division's amount of reduction decreases.

However the reaction an energy conversion sector's tackle affects each section by

electric power distribution is not few.

Fig.Ⅱ-3 Specification by the sector of the amount of CO2 discharge in 1999

30%

32%

11%

21%

6%

7%

41%

25%

21%

6%electricity generationsector

industy sector

residential and commercialsector

transportation sector

others

Source “Ministry of the Environment”

b. Reduction target and discharge result

The amount of CO2 discharge is 21,000,000t-C in 1990. Fig.Ⅱ-2 shows BAU

scenario is setting to 25,000,000t-C of the increase 19% compared with 1990. Then

present measure scenario is setting to 22,000,000t-C of the increase 4% compared with

1990. Moreover the amount of CO2 emission has been a horizontal mostly after 1990.

Fig.Ⅱ-4 Energy conversion sector's amount of energy origin CO2 emission

21 2122 22

23 2322

2322

0

5

10

15

20

25

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

milliont-C25

22

+19% compared with1990

+4% compared with1990

BAU scenario

present measure scenario

Source “Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”

c. The amount of electric power demand and CO2 emission specific-productivity

However the amount of electric power demand, and the amount of CO2 emission

per amount of electric power demand (CO2 emission specific productivity) are changing

greatly. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-3. Electric-power demand of Japan has been increased

by about 3 times after the oil crisis of the 1970s. However, CO2 emission specific

productivity has been reduced about 40% by the introductory enlargement of the nuclear

power generation. Therefore, the amount of CO2 emission from an electric entrepreneur

is kept about twice compared with 1970.

Fig.Ⅱ-5 Transition of the amount of CO2 emission from electricity business

Source “Federation of Electric Power Companies”

d. CO2 emission reduction target of Federation of Electric Power Companies

According to the voluntary action plan of Federation of Electric Power

Companies, the amount of power-generation will expect in 2010 growth about 1.5 times

as many as it compared with 1990. However, they say that the total amount of CO2

emission is kept about 1.2 times growth by nuclear exploitation. This means reducing

CO2 discharge specific productivity from 0.42kg-CO2/kWh in 1990 to about 0.3kg-CO2/

kWh.

e. The effective range and feasibility of the voluntary action plan

However CO2 emission curb target of the voluntary action plan does not change

mostly from BAU scenario. The further tackle is required in order to hold down to

4% appreciation compared with 1990. Furthermore, in the prospect of Federation of

Electric Power Companies, CO2 emission specific productivity is presupposing that

it will go up to 0.4kg-CO2/kWh in 2005. The big reason is the rate of the atomic energy

occupied in the amount of power-generation will be decreased.

f. The possibility to achieve the target

According to the power-generation plan of the electric entrepreneur, the

ratio of LNG, hydraulic power, coal oil, etc. will decrease, and the ratio of coal

firepower and atomic energy will increase. (Table Ⅱ-2). An exploitation project

stands for the power-generation facilities established newly, and an output in 2010

stands for an output of the sum-total power-generation facilities in 2010. However,

some exploitation plans assumed 13 nuclear power plants will establish. If only 7

nuclear power plants will be able to establish newly, a nuclear ratio decreases from

plans. That is, whether 13 nuclear power plants can be newly established as a target

has grasped the key of the feasibility of the voluntary action plan.

Fig.Ⅱ-6 electricity entrepreneur's power-generation plan

Type An exploitation project

(10,000kW)

An output in 2010

(10,000kW)

Nuclear power 1,694(13) 6,185

Hydraulic power 70 2,069

Pumped hydro power 270 2,741

Coal fire power 1,565 4,413

NLG fire power 1,100 6,696

Petroleum fire power 169 4,694

LPG fire power 39 377

Geothermal power 2 54

Source “Agency of Natural Resources and Energy”

(2) Industry sector a. Introduction

Before describing the measure of industry sector, I describe what status the sector

is now. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-6. You can see the amount of exhaust is repeated

going up and down from 1990. The amount of curtailment in this sector in fundamental

principle is 16.5Mt-C among the whole 60Mt-C. So, as it will be also in the measure

scenario, it needs to decrease it to 126Mt-C until 2010. Both the Ministry of

Environment and the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry show original measure as

this 16.5Mt-C reduction measure scenario. If both the Ministry’s 16.5Mt-C

curtailment plan are seen, you can understand that they depend on the voluntary action

plan.

Fig.Ⅱ-7 BAU scenario and the measure scenario of the amount of energy origin CO2

discharge in figure

134 133 130 128133 134 135 135 129

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

milliont-C

BAU scenario

present measurescenario

142

126

comparedwith 1990

＋6％compared with

1990-6％

Source) Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency

“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”

b. Voluntary action plan

The voluntary action plan is started as “Federation of Economic Organizations

environmental voluntary action plan” on June 17, 1997. It started with 36

occupational descriptions, and now the number increased to 43. Keidanren (Federation

of Economic Organizations) holds up the target of “trying hard so that the amount

of CO2 emission from a industry sector and an electricity generation sector in 2010

may be restrained below on the level of 1990”, and they are tackling hard toward

this. In order to achieve this target, follow up is performed every year. According

to this follow up emissions of CO2 in fiscal 1999 were 0.1% lower than in fiscal 1990.

For this reason they insist that it is as a result of efforts by the respective

industries. (Figure Ⅱ-8)

FigureⅡ-8

Improvements in electric power consumption per

unit output -2．2%

Efforts by the respective industries -2.1%

Expansion of economy +4．2%

Total -0．1%

Source) Keidanren “Regarding Results of the 3rd Follow-up to the

Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment“

c. Point of issue

As for the voluntary action plan, the Ministry of Environment and Keidanren are just

actively arguing about this plan now. The Ministry of Environment insists that there

are four issues. First is about the target which voluntary action plan has held up.

If you sum up the target of an individual occupational description, you can find it

is different from the unification target of Keidanren (Table 4). Second is about the

rate of a cover. The present voluntary action plan is not covering medium and small

enterprises, so it needs some kind of measure that urges their participation. Third

is about efforts by the respective industries. They insist that the percent of efforts

by the respective industries (-2.1% on TableⅡ-3) isn’t correct. The total of –0.1%

isn’t achieved by its efforts but by improvements in electric power consumption per

unit output. Last is about the follow up. Since the follow up hasn’t done by fair

third-party agency, as for voluntary action plan, it is unreliable.

On the other hand Keidanren is claimed to this evaluation, and taking absolute

opposite posture to economic-control-implements. Moreover Keidanren clarified the

object to examine the institution of third-party certification according to the

private sector. By this, Keidanren is going to raise the reliability much more.

d. Summary

In this way, the voluntary action plan is point of an argument for industry sector

just now. As long as looking figure Ⅱ-6, it is thought that Keidanren’s voluntary

action plan is going well so that we should look after their tackle for a while. But

in order to raise the certainty, we have to think about what to do if the voluntary

action plan couldn’t achieve the target and how to urge medium and small enterprises

to participate on voluntary action plan.

(3) Residential and commercial sector

CO2 emission from residential sector is produced by energy use in houses, and CO2

emission from commercial sector is produced by energy use in offices, shops, hospitals

and so on.

a. Present situation

The amount of CO2 emission from residential and commercial sector in 1999 is about

80.5 Mt-C. This emission amounts to 22.1% of the emission from all sectors in Japan.

b. The estimate of the amount of CO2 emission

I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-9. This figure shows BAU scenario and present measure

scenario of the amount of energy origin CO2 emission in residential and commercial

sector. The amount of CO2 emission in 1998 is 81 Mt-C, which means an increase of

17.8% compared with 1990. The target of residential and commercial sector under the

global warming prevention action plan is to refrain the emission to 71.7Mt-C(±0%

compared with 1990). However, the amount of CO2 emission in 2010(BAU scenario) is

estimated at 99Mt-C(increase of 38% compared with 1990). So it is necessary to reduce

27Mt-C CO2 emission in order to achieve the target.

Fig. Ⅱ-9 Energy origin CO2 emission of the residential and commercial sector

7278 76

81 83 82

74

8181

0

20

40

60

80

100

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

million t-C

99

72

BAU scenario

present measure scenario

+３８％comparingwith 1990

±０％comparingwith 1990

Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency

“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming

c. The analysis of the present measures

The following shows the present measures of residential and commercial sector and

their estimates of CO2 reduction.

Fig. Ⅱ-10 The breakdown of the present measures of residential and commercial sector

measures details of measuresestimates of CO2

reduction(million tons-C)

improvement of theequipment efficiency 9.7

propelling the heat insulation structure of the housing

propelling the heat insulation structure of the buildings

28℃　air-conditioning20℃　heating

shortening shower time by a minuteshortening TV time by an hour

efficient use of refrigeratorefficient use of bath

othersthe sread of high efficient light

the sread of high efficient liquid crystal displayunknown

27.4

improvement of the energyefficiency of the housing and

buildings10.3

fundamental changes tothe lifestyles of the

citizens5

technology deveropments 2.4

Total



When you see this figure, it turns out there are 4 measures, improvement of the

equipment efficiency, improvement of the energy efficiency of the housing and

buildings, fundamental changes to the lifestyles of the citizens and technology

developments. The amount of CO2 reduction is estimated to each measure. If the

reduction succeeds as the estimates, the target of residential and commercial sector

under the Global Warming Prevention Action Plan, ±0% is going to be achieved. However

it is much doubtful whether the reduction succeeds. So we verified as follows if the

each measure is possible to achieve the target or not.

Improvement of the equipment efficiency

According to Fig.3-2, 9.7Mt-C, 35% of the amount of reduction in the whole residential

and commercial sector is estimated. The Revised Energy Conservation Law legally binds

this measure. Based on the revised energy conservation Law in 1998,

household-electric-appliances and OA apparatus are considered that improvement of

energy efficiency progresses steadily. However there are some factors that may offset

the effect by the efficiency improvement. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-11. This shows

the transit of the number of the households and the number of household’s members

in Japan. When seeing this, it turns out that the number of the households is increasing

consistently and in contrast, the number of household’s members is decreasing. When

it you see for only 11 years from 1990 to 2000, the number of households increased

by about 15.2%. Coming from this increase of the number of households, more and more

household-electric-appliances and OA apparatus are possessed. So there are some fears

that may offset the effect by the efficiency improvement. Moreover, it depends on

the life of the apparatus which it is used now and the priority of family budget whether

the new goods which efficiency has been improved based on the Law are actually

introduced into houses and offices. Although the Revised Energy Conservation Law

legally binds the improvements of equipment efficiency, it is uncertain whether the

new equipments is actually introduced and the reduction is going to succeed.

Fig. Ⅱ-11 the transition of the number of households and household’s members

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

year

thousa

nd

house

hold

4

”

47420 3.6

29146

1970 1980

Improvement of the energy efficiency of

According to Fig.3-2, 10.3Mt-C, 35% of the

and commercial sector is estimated. Th

insulation performance of housing had b

Conservation Law in 1979(old standard)

insulation performance was introduced and

Law, the standard was reinforced further,

The housing before 1972 is called out of

41146(1990)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

the numberof households

the numberofhousehold’smembers


2.7

1990 2000

“The Scenarioｓ for the Achievement of the Target

the housing and buildings

amount of reduction in the whole residential

e energy conservation standard as to heat

een reinforced gradually since the Energy

. In 1992, new standard for reinforcing

in 1998, in the Revised Energy Conservation

which is called next generation standard.

date housing. Thereby, the heat insulation

performance of all the housings average is expected that it is improving gradually.

However there also are some factors that may be offset the effect of the improvement

of heat insulation performance. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-12 and Fig.Ⅱ-13. Fig.Ⅱ

-12 shows the transition of the number of new constructed housings classified by

heat-insulation performance, and Fig.Ⅱ-13 shows the transition of the housing stock

by heat insulation performance. As shown in Fig.Ⅱ-12, the rate of the housings with

good heat insulation performance (new standard and newt generation standard) is

expanded. Seeing Fig.Ⅱ-13, however, it turns out that more than half of the total

housing have the heat insulation performance worse than old standard, and the quantity

of total housing stock is increasing. This is because it takes long period of time

to replace the housing. These factors may be offset the effect of the improvement

of heat insulation performance. Then it is also uncertain that the reduction of this

measure is going to succeed.

Fig.Ⅱ-12 the transition of the number of new constructed housings classified by

heat-insulation performance

Fig.Ⅱ-13 the transition of the housing stock by heat insulation performance

Fundamental changes to the lifestyles of the citizens

It depends on the users whether the Measures, such as 28 degrees air conditioning

and 20 degrees heating, are carried out. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the amount

of reduction is going to be achieved.

Technology development

This reduction depends on future technical development. Therefore it is uncertain

whether it is put to practical use or not and whether this reduction is achieved.

As a result of the vilification of each measure, we concluded that it is difficult

for residential and commercial sector to achieve the target under the Global Warming

Prevention Action Plan.

（４） Transportation sector

ａ．Introduction

The target for the transportation sector is to cut down the CO2 emission in

2010 to the level of 17% increase comparing with the emission of the baseyear (1990).

But, as shown in figure2-10, this sector’s emission in 1998 has already risen to

the level of 21.1% increase. If there are no indications of rapid reduction in the

early future, it means that the present measures aren’t taking effect, or it is

insufficient.

The purpose of this chapter is to clarify whether the present measures in

this sector will work out, And if not, to cite the important points for the additional

measures that must be adopted for the achievement of the target.

FigureⅡ-14 Energy-origin CO2 emission of the Transportation sector

5861 62 62

6669 70 70

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

million t-C

BAU scenario

present measurescenario

+40% comparingwith 1990

+17% comparingwith 1990

81

68



ｂ．The analysis of the present situation

As shown in figureⅡ-15, almost 90% of the GHG emissions in this sector are from

the automobiles, and as shown in figure2-12 & figure2-13, the GHG emissions from other

conveyances (aviation, railroad, shipping) haven’t changed of late in both freight sector

and passenger sector. Moreover, also the emission of CO2 from freight cars in the

freight sector hasn’t changed of late. (The CO2 emission has bean suppressed to 5.9%

increase comparing with the 1990’s) However, the increase of CO2 emission from

automobiles in the passenger sector has been rising rapidly, and it has extended to

the level of 32% increase comparing to 1990.

From these facts, the achievement of this sector will depend on whether the

emissions from the automobiles, especially automobiles in the passenger sector, are

reduced. Having it based in this, validity of the present measures will be assayed below.


“The Scenarioｓ for the Achievement of the Target

FigureⅡ-15 GHG emissions of each means of ｢transportation

53.4 30.7

2.2

1.6

2.7

5.5

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

privately-owned cars freight cars business-used cars

buses railroad shipping

aviation

automobiles 87.9%

”

Figure Ⅱ-16

CO2 emission in the passenger sector

Figure Ⅱ-17

CO2 emission in the freight sector

ｃ．The validity of the present measures


“The Scenarioｓ for the Achievement of the Target”

table Ⅱ-1 the present measures in the transportation sector

reductiontarget

(million t-C)percentage measures

Ameasure with a dentified objectivethat are enacted on law

3.5 27%improvement of energy efficiency based onthe "energy-saving law"

B

measures with promotive policy tomake in common use

4.8 37%

traffic congestion eased by ITS,promotion of teleworks, introduction ofclean-energy cars, trailerizement andenlargement of vehicles, Maintenance ofcoastal roads, etc

C

measures to enlighten (validitiesdepending on the users)

4.4 34%

promotion of the use of publicinstitution, rize of loadage on freightcars, restraint of iddling, abrupt startand stop, restraint of car-use, etc

D

measures witch are not in praticaluse (validities depending ontechnical innovations )

0.3 2% high-performance electromobiles, etc

The type of measures



The present measures and their reduction targets are shown on tableⅡ-1 above. Since

the amount of CO2 emission from automobiles is considered to depend on “the number”,

“the mileage” and the “road situation and traveling distance”, validity of the

present measures will be assayed from these three viewpoints. (The alphabets below show

the types of measures witch are shown in tableⅡ-1.)

The number of automobiles

There are no measures witch can directly reduce the increase in the number of

automobiles. Indirectly, “promotion of teleworks (C) ” and “ trailerizement and

enlargement of vehicles (C) ” might restrain the increase, but the effects are

uncertain. Moreover, there is a possibility that the new technologies, such as “ITS

(C)”, improve the convenience of the vehicles, and cause an increase in the number

of automobiles.

In 1998, the number of vehicles reached 7.4 million, an increase of 1.44 million

since 1990. The breakdown of those numbers is shown in figure2-14. In the figure,

the number of automobiles is increasing very rapidly. This is the main cause of the

increase in CO2 emission from the automobiles in passenger sector. With measures with

pour effectiveness to restraint the increase in number of vehicles, rapid reduction

can’t be expected.

Figure Ⅱ-18 the number of vehicles hold

The Council of Road Traffic Noise “the situation of road traffic”

Mileage (fuel efficiency)

The present measures that have relation to the mileage are,

① “Improvement of energy efficiency based on the "energy-saving law"(A)”

② “Restraint of idling, abrupt start and stop (C)”

③ “High-performance electro mobiles (D)”.

about ①

As shown in figureⅡ-18, the "energy-saving law" made a great improvement in the

theoretical mileage (new cars). But, there are no signs of improvement in both

theoretical mileage (stock) and the practical mileage. The factor of this can be

considered as “abolish of the commodity tax”, “modification of automobile taxes

witch has less incentive to choose light weighted cars than the previous taxes” and

“change in tastes of consumers” witch increased the average weight of vehicles

(figure Ⅱ-20).

Figure Ⅱ-19 transition of theoretical mileage and practical mileage



figure Ⅱ-20 the average weight of vehicles

1.01

1.03

1.06

1.08

1.12

1.141.15

1.171.18

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

〔ton〕



That is to say, though the mileage of each automobile has improved greatly, the

increase of number and the weight has cancel out the effect of the "energy-saving

law". As a result, reductions of 350 million ton-C in table2-8 have become impossible

with the present measures.

about②

Since the main action of the measures will be an announcement to the users of the

vehicles, it is difficult to estimate the propagation of each measure. As a result,

the effect of the measure will be uncertain, and to achieve the amount of reduction

planned will be difficult.

about③

Reductions by introducing an epoch-making new technology are anticipated greatly,

and many auto manufacturers are working on it hard. However, It is not favorable to

include the uncertain particulars in the calculation.

Road situation and traveling distance

The present measures that have relation to the road situation and traveling distance

are,

① “promotion of the use of public institution (C)”

② “restraint of car-use (C)”

③ “traffic congestion eased by ITS (B)”

④ “promotion of teleworks (B)”

⑤ “maintenance of coastal roads (B)”.

about①&②

As mentioned above, since the main action of the measures will be an announcement

to the users of the vehicles, it is difficult to estimate the propagation of each

measure. As a result, the effect of the measure will be uncertain, and to achieve

the amount of reduction planned will be difficult.

about③&④&⑤

Figure Ⅱ-12 shows the additional cost2 of each measure. For example, “preparation

of ITS” costs 2.3million yens, and the “motor-shift trucks to railway” costs 200

thousand yens. In the other hand, there is a calculation witch certificates that,

the reduction of the total CO2 in the reduction target can be achieved by introducing

a carbon-tax. In this case it only costs 34，000yens/t-C.3 When comparing the cost

2 The additional-cost is an expense that is required in order to reduce more greenhouse gases comparing to the "present measure scenario" . It contains not only the direct cost for investment in plant and equipment and the running cost (maintenance, energy and labor costs etc.), but also the cost for the government (preparation for infrastructures) and the subsidiary effects (such as convenience, time reduction, safety, risk avoidance, prevention of air pollution)". 3 Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency “The Scenarioｓ for the Achievement of the Target”

of the present measures with the introduction of carbon-tax, it is obvious that there

expenditures are very high. The cost and the benefits must be well investigated.

Table Ⅱ-2 economic valuation of the measures

subsidiaryeffects

cerntainty

motor-shift from land to sea 730 270 ○ C

improvement of practical mileage 57,000 6,800 ○ B

miniaturization of vehicles 57,000 3,300 ○ B

motor-shift from trucks to rail-way 200,000 30 ○ C

practical use of public transportation (preparation of bus service 290,000 1,700 ○ A

improvement of road traffic in urbans （ITS） 2,300,000 320 ◎ B

efficienting freight traffic （joint transport） 4,100,000 3,800 ○ C

practical use of public transportation (preparation of traffic syste 6,400,000 680 ○ C

techniquesadditional

reduction cost〔yen／t-C〕

additionalreduction

〔1000 t-CO2〕

valuation ofuncertainties



ｄ．consequence It is impossible to achieve the reduction target with the present measures.

Additional measures must be taken. The matters that must be investigated when

introducing an additional are shown below.

・ Reduce emissions especially from the automobiles in passenger sector)

・ Supplement the reduction that might exceed because of the measures that there

effects are uncertain

Ⅲ The importance of applying the Kyoto Mechanism

In Chapter Ⅱ, the subject measures based on global-warming Prevention Action

Plan has been clarified. However, at first we go back to the presupposition of argument,

and want to improve about the validity of the reduction target in Global Warming

Prevention Action Plan. We considered it is not the best way for Japan to reduce CO2

emission according to the Action Plan. The reduction costs have to be considered much

more. Japan has to improve the reduction target, and utilize the Kyoto Mechanism more

flexible.

First of all, we have to check about the status quo and the prospect of the amount

of energy origin CO2 emission of Japan. As shown in FigureⅢ-1, the amount of energy

origin CO2 in 1990 is 287 million t-C and if any special measures is not taken (BAU)

it will increase to 347 million t-C. When carrying out present measure at electricity

generation sector, industry sector, residential & commercial sector, and

transportation sector, it will increase 31 million t-C and become 315 million t-C

in 2010. If this is calculated from whole amount of GHGs emission in 1990, it will

become +9.2% of appreciation. It is as already stated in advance that the causes

of sector which increasing emission of energy origin CO2 is residential & commercial

sector and transportation sector. Since the reduction target of energy origin CO2

in the Action Plan target is ±0%, it must carry out additional measure to reduce

+9.2%. But this is laying stress on domestic measure too much. Taking the present

measure, the practical use of Kyoto Mechanism is only 1.8%. If 16.7% reduction is

performed only as domestic measure, about 90% will be reduced by domestic measure.

As a result of this, it will clearly affect Japanese economy.

FigureⅢ-1 The estimation of energy origin CO2 emission in Japan

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

base year (1990) BAU scenario the presentmeasure scenario

target planned inthe presentmeasures

mill

ion t

on-C

+20.9%

+10.9%±0%



Comparing with EU and United States, it can be also said that it is very difficult

for Japan to achieve the target. At first, look at figure Ⅲ-2 which is comparing

the amount of CO2 emission per capita in 1998. It shows that the amount of CO2 emission

per capita in Japan is much fewer than United State. Next, look at figure Ⅲ-3 which

is comparing the marginal reduction cost. The marginal reduction cost of Japan is

1.5 times of EU, and about 2 times of United States. From these two figures, the cost

of emission reduction in Japan is much higher than EU and United States. Further more,

look at figure Ⅲ-4 which indicates reduction targets and the amount of CO2 emission

in 1990 and 1999. Japan and United States have the amount of GHGs emission in increase

disposition, and on the other hand EU is in reduction disposition from 1990. It is

the cause of energy composition’s having changed greatly from 1990 in Britain and

Germany, and it contributed to the reduction of GHGs emission in EU. In Britain, the

energy measure has changed from coal to natural gas since exploitation of North Sea

oil fields, and because of this, 6.5% amount of CO2 emission has decreased from 1990.

Also in Germany that was integrated in 1990, environment measure was improved in East

Germany, so that 12.6% amount of CO2 emission has decreased from 1900. Since the amount

of CO2 emission of Britain and Germany occupies 48% of whole EU emission in 1990,

the reduction in these two countries has contributed to whole EU. Although EU was

burdened with the severest reduction target (-0.8%) in the Kyoto Protocol, it has

prepared difference in the target of each country in EU. The specification is crossed

to large area from –28% of Luxembourg to +27% of Portugal. This is called EU bubble.

Each country in EU can cope with global-warming problem flexible, and can reduce the

impact to economy. Such a thing makes it easy for EU to achieve the target. As compared

with overseas, it clarified that a reduction cost of Japan is very high. If Japan

carries out domestic measure as the reduction target of the Action Plan, and using

Kyoto Mechanism only 1.8%, the influence to the economy will be serious. Therefore,

the reduction target of the Action Plan has to be reconsidered, and Japan should use

Kyoto Protocol more flexible.

The domestic measure that does not affect on domestic economy seriously have to

be carried out, and we think Japan should expand its use of Kyoto Mechanism in order

to achieve the reduction target.

FigureⅢ-2　amount CO2 emission per person of Japan,Germany,USA (1998)

9.410.8

20.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

Japan Germany USA

t-C

O2/pe

rson

FigureⅢ -3 Marginal reduction cost to achive the target (1998)

050

100150200250300350400450

Japan EU USA

US$

FigureⅢ -4 Actual Co2 emission and target of Japan, EU, USA

01000200030004000500060007000

1990 1999 target

CO2

mill

ion

ton

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

%

JapanEUUSAJapanEUUSA

Last of all We described the present condition of the global warming problem in chapter 1.

In chapter 2, we described the necessity for ratification, and verified the tackle

to global warming problem of Japan. Based on this verification, we proved that it

is impossible for Japan to achieve the reduction target by the present measures, and

so additional measure is necessary. However if Japan makes reduction additionally

by domestic measures, the impact for Japanese economy will be very serious compared

with overseas. Therefore, in chapter 4, we came to the conclusion that Japan should

review the Global Warming Prevention Action Plan and expand its use of Kyoto mechanism

instead of taking additional domestic measures.

Global warming problem cannot be solved in several years, and should be tackled in

the long run, several decades, or several hundred years. From these viewpoint, Japan

should tackle global warming problem flexibly.

ANNEX Ⅰ

Introduction

The main subject has described the importance of the Kyoto mechanism when Japan

ratifies the Kyoto protocol. However, which Kyoto Mechanism surely poses a question

for Japan that cannot but use the Kyoto Mechanism. Although idea that an emission

trading becomes the cheapest in three Kyoto mechanisms are in use, providing all with

it cannot be necessarily the best plan for Japan. It is because that its price and

amount are uncertain. Even the condition of emission trading which each country can

merchant at present is undecided. Japan must avoid becoming it impossible to achieve

the target, because of emission trading shortage. For that, examination should fully

be put about the two remaining Kyoto mechanisms, and the risk should be distributed.

Furthermore we have to pay an attention that emission trading and joint

implementation are performed only between AnnexⅠ countries. If the whole world is

aimed at sustainable development, it is indispensable to tackle a global warming

problem with countries not included in AnnexⅠ that the amount of discharge of CO2

will increase from now on. Therefore, the moment of CDM will increase for the world

and Japan. In this AnnexⅠ we clarify CDM between China and Japan is not only important

for Japan but also for China.

1.To solve air pollution in China

A high economic growth rate has continued for more than twenty years in China. The

mean growth rate secures 9.8%, and is maintaining remarkable economical development.

However, the distortion accompanied by high economic growth called air pollution has

surfaced like Japan had experienced before. Also, a Chinese air-pollution problem

does not stop in China, but it is also turning into an international problem in that

Japan and Southeast Asia are also affected in recent years. CDM with Japan is one

effective means that can solve this problem.

Featuring Chinese air-pollution problem at first, it is mentioned that energy

inclines toward coal too much. In China, it depends on coal for about three-forth

of consumption energy. The influence of coal given to air pollution compared with

other fossil fuels is so large that it is making Chinese air pollution serious.

Next, the contents of the concrete air pollution by combustion of the coal are

described. If coal is burnt, in connection with it, a lot of SOx and NOx will be

discharged. This becomes the cause of air pollution. If it says about SOx here, the

amount of discharge of China in 1996 is about 13,640,000t. This is high to the next

in the United States which discharges the most among OECD countries. Moreover, when

SOx discharge coefficient per GDP unit of each country compares this by the relation

with an economic scale, the level of SOx discharged by producing the same GDP of 1000

dollars is 32kg in China, 2.5kg in United States, and 0.4kg in Japan. It can be said

that coal in China is not efficiently used from this numerical value.

When how to improve air pollution in China is considered from the above thing,

there are two directivities. First is the method of converting the energy which

influences little to environment, such as petroleum and a natural gas, from coal.

The second is the method of improving energy efficiency. However, when such time is

taken into consideration to a Chinese energy situation or energy conversion, probably,

the second method is effective. Therefore, in order to solve present Chinese air

pollution, it is indispensable to improve energy efficiency of coal at first.

Ⅱ.Toward CDM with China

Japan is already also tackling the project in China as Activities Implemented

Jointly (AIJ). It is more cost effective for Japan to do CDM in China.

Present Japan is tackling three projects as AIJ with China. The first is a project

aiming at the improvement in the energy efficiency and the environmental preservation

by fugitive gas captured and practical use. To achieve this project Coke Dry-Quenching

Facility (CDQ) have to installed in the Chinese coke furnace. The influence of the

environment on the cause of air pollution is seen conventionally. It is reducible

682,700t-CO2 in 20 years. The second is a project aiming at the improvement in energy

efficiency by installation of Electric Furnace Used for Ferro Alloy Refining. The

CO2 curtailment effect will predict 290,500t-CO2 in 10 years. The third is a project

aiming at the exhaust-gas recovery by use of the waste heat from incineration of

garbage in Harbin. The CO2 curtailment effect will predict 418,740t-CO2 in 10 years.

Thus, the joint implementation is already progressing steadily, and surely the

activity of China and Japan will become a certainly important thing in the future.

Conclusion

When the global-warming problem is considered, the participation of developing

countries on this problem is indispensable. Especially the participation of China

will become more important. However, it is not necessarily right to press China and

other countries not included in AnnexⅠ to do same things as countries in AnnexⅠ.

It will needs to impose other kind of responsibility different from countries in Annex

Ⅰ to tackle the global-warming problem. To tackle this problem, developing countries

will needs support of the technology and know-how of countries in AnnexⅠ, and for

this co-operation will be done by CDM.

We have to remind that whether economical development and the environmental

preservation are in the relation of trade-off. Surely, economical development in the

20th century will consist at the sacrifice of the environmental preservation. However,

various technologies in recent years and activities are changing this relation. CDM

between Japan and China which we have described this time performs simultaneous

curtailment of SO x and CO2. This is certainly can be called bottom rise-approach

of the tackle to the global-warming problem, which aimed at coexistence of economy

and environment. We hope these CDM will become of model case that advanced country

and developing country tackle at earth-environment problem.

Bibliography

Asahi Newspaper June 30, 2001

Asahi Newspaper July 28, 2001

Hidefumi Imura and Ken Fujiwara "Chinese environmental-issue" (1995)

Kazuhiro Ueda, Toshihiro Oka, and Hidenori Niizawa "economics of environmental

policy" (1997)

Department of the Environment earth-environment office "the amount of GHGs emission

in 1999" (2001)

Department of the Environment earth-environment office "The Scenarioｓ for the

Achievement of the Target" (2001)

Department of the Environment global-warming measure front office "Global Warming

Prevention Action Plan" (1998)

Department of the Environment Central Environment Council plan policy sectional

meeting "Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming" (2000)

Department of the Environment Central Environment Council

global-environment-department meeting "The Scenarioｓ for the Achievement of the

Target" (2001)

Environment Agency global-environment-department "IPCC global-warming second

report" (1996)

Keio university economics meeting "92 Mita society sheets No.2" (1999)

Keio university economics meeting "94 Mita society sheets No.1" (2000)

Federation of Economic Organizations "Federation of Economic Organizations

environmental autonomy action plan Federation of Electric Power Companies division"

(1997)

Earth industrial cultural-studies place "IPCC -- account land use and land use change

specially and summary" (2000)

Japan Institute of Energy "the role of energy and a state" (2001)

Yamaguchi Mitsutsune "Global-environment question and business-enterprise" (2000)

IPCC Third Assessment Report-Climate Change2001 (2001)

coping with the global warming - keio...

Documents