Coping with The Global Warming
Climate Change group
Hiro Kawato
Yoichi Ikeda
Tomohiko Iwasaki
Tomonori Momiyama
Yoko Miyazaki
Introduction
At Marrakech in Morocco, the 7th session of Conference of the Parties (COP7) was
held from October 29, 2001. The world is just advancing for settlement of global
warming. In COP7, many undecided things were discussed toward the entry into force
of the Kyoto Protocol adopted in COP3.
Based on such condition, we will examine what correspondence Japan should take for
global warming in this paper. In chapterⅠ,we will check the shame of the global
warming which surrounded the world. And in chapterⅡ, we will analyze the present
actions of Japan and clarify the subjects. In Japan, domestic measures following
“fundamental principles for promoting measures toward global warming” have been
carried out now. Among them, we will take notice of measures for reduction of energy
origins CO2 and examine whether the domestic measurers are performed sure enough.
To tell the conclusion, we think that it is difficult to reduce as fundamental
principles under measurers present, since the institution of nuclear power plants
are not progressing as planned, and since the increase of CO2 emission from
“residential and commercial” and “transportation” sections are remarkable. Then
in chapterⅢ, we will propose that Japan should review the fundamental principles
themselves. And we will conclude this paper after clarifying the points that should
be regarded in that case.
Chapter 1 The Climate Change
1. The characteristic of the Climate Change
Greenhouse gases and aerosols are emitted unavoidably due to our daily life and
economic activities today. As a result, the rise of the temperature of the atmosphere
and the surface of the earth affects the Global Environment. This is called the Climate
Change (Global Warming).
Since the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols are related to the energy
consumption intimately, it isn’t just a problem of the Global Environment, but also
an energy and economic problems. Moreover, the impacts will affect overseas and the
future generations. It could be said as the problem that the whole people in the world
must solve in a unit.
2. Scientific facts ~from the IPCC Third Assessment Report~
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), an environmental organization that monitors the available information
about climate change, has announced the Third Assessment Report in 2001. According
to the report,
•
•
•
•
•
the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6±0.2℃ over the 20th
century (figure1-1).
The global average sea level rose between 0.1 to 0.2 meters during the 20th
century.
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31% since
1750.
There has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness during late summer
to early autumn in recent decades.
And based upon emissions scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES), it also says
By 2100, carbon cycle models project atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 540 to 9701
ppm for the illustrative SRES scenarios.
1 Comparing with 280 ppm, the CO2 concentration in 1750, it is an increase of 90 to 250%.
•
•
•
The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to
5.8°C over the period 1990 to2100.
Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters between 1990
and 2100.
Carbon cycle models indicate that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations
at 450, 650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic CO2 emissions to drop
below 1990 levels, within a few decades, about a century, or about two centuries,
respectively, and continue to decrease steadily thereafter. Eventually CO2
emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions.
Figure1-1 the variations Earth’s temperature
A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
However, the world is in a situation witch is difficult to reduce the CO2 emission,
even to the level of 1990.The figure1-2 shows the world’s CO2 emission and its
estimation. The world’s emission of CO2 will keep increasing, and in 2020, the level
of the emission will reach to the level of 70% increase comparing to 1990. Also,
the increase of emission from the developing countries will increase very rapidly,
and by 2010, it will over take the emission from the OECD countries. Even if the Kyoto
Protocol comes into force, the countries not included in Annex1 will not have any
emission limits during the first budget period.
Furthermore, Global mean surface temperature increases and rising sea level from
thermal expansion of the ocean are projected to continue for hundreds of years after
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (even at present levels), and because
of thus, there will be a serious damage on Hydrology and Water Resources, Agriculture
and Food Security, Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems, Coastal Zones and Marine
Ecosystems, Energy and Industry, Human Health, Human Settlements and Insurance and
Other Financial Services. The Climate Change is an exigency witch the world must deal
with.
Figure1-2 the world’s CO2 emission and its estimation
2850 3157 3535 3907
1290935 1024
1646 2447
3547
4886
827
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1000011000
1990 2000 2010 2020
mill
ion t
on-C
OECD countries countries in transition developing countries
The IPCC Third Assessment Report
3. The World Tends in International Negotiations
Next, we describe the world tends in international negotiations to show how
international society has tackled global warming.
(1) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
As the first international action for global warming, United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, and came into force in
1994. Japan signed it in June 1992, and joined it in May 1993.
UNFCCC has several material ideas, and they have largely affected the subsequent
negotiations for global warming.
Firstly, it says in article2 that the ultimate objective of the Convention is
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would not prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
It has not solved what level would not prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system, and although the further investment is required, many
scientists in the world bear 550ppm, which is the twice before the Industrial
Revolution.
Secondly, the article2 of UNFCCCC also says that the ultimate objective above
should be achieved “within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and
enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” This time-frame
cannot be concretely decided, since it is greatly dependent on the net emission (total
emission – removal by forest and so on) of greenhouse gases involved with the future
human-induced activities.
However it would be necessary to take concrete actions immediately in the states
mainly developed countries which can devise the measures now, if we consider the time
lag since measurers are build till the effects appear, or till the whole world
including developing countries come to take actions.
The third point is “common but differentiated responsibilities”, which is in
article3.1 of the Convention. It is a principle that both developing countries and
developed countries have to assume some responsibilities on global warming and take
actions, because all countries concern emission of greenhouse gases and all countries
would also get adverse effects. But developed countries should have larger
responsibilities, because global warming was mainly caused by industrialization of
developed countries. Based on this principle, UNFCCC set up the aim for developed
countries to introduce the actions to restrain the amount of greenhouse gas emission
on a level in 1990 by the end of 1999. On the other hand, it imposed developing
countries only fundamental obligations such as grasping own emission and notifying
them to secretariat of the Convention. And the idea that developed country should
take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects, was shown.
The forth point is “prevention principle”. Article3.3 of UNFCCC prescribes
that “where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainly should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures”.
Global warming has irreversibility. It means that it is impossible to return to
former condition when it has exceeded a limitation. Therefore even if it is
scientifically uncertain, measures should be devised in its early stages. It is the
prevention principle.
(2) Kyoto Protocol
The 3rd session of Conference of the Parties (COP3) was held in Kyoto in 1997,
and the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. In this Protocol, restrictive target for each
country was determined, as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases at least 5% to
1990 level in countries included in AnnexⅠ, which consists of member nations of OECD
at that time and economies in transition, in the first commitment period (2008-2012).
Japanese target is 6% reduction, that of US is 7%reduction, and that of EU is 8%
reduction. The Kyoto Protocol also approved the Kyoto Mechanism-emission trading,
joint implementation (JI), clean development mechanism (CDM). It is an international
system to make it easier to achieve the targets.
However, about the detailed rules, such as, how to deal with the Kyoto Mechanism,
how to count the absorption by sinks, what measures should be taken if a country
doesn’t comply the target, and how to assist developing countries, were not decided
in COP3, and left to a future negotiations in Conference of the Parties.
ChapterⅡ Verification of the measure against 6% reduction
In chapter Ⅰ, we have clarified the seriousness of global warming and introduced
how the world tackled the problem. It is one of the most important things for the
world to unite and tackle in the long run against global warming. Kyoto protocol is
the first tackle in the world that prescribes the upper-limit of GHGs emission.
Moreover, if we take it into consideration that the amount of emission from developing
countries will be located in a line with OECD countries in 2010, it is indispensable
to impose upper limit of GHGs emission on developing countries after the first budget
period. Therefore, developed countries must show them positive results first in the
first budget period. So we want to verify whether it is possible for Japan to achieve
the target -6% reduction of GHGs emission with present measures when Japan ratifies
the Kyoto protocol.
1. The specification of -6% reduction.
Japanese government examined about domestic measures in the “Global Warming
Prevention Action Plan” in June 1998 toward -6% reduction under the Kyoto protocol.
The present domestic measures are performed along with these “Global Warming
Prevention Action Plan”. The table Ⅱ shows specification of the 6% reduction. The
important points are to refrain energy origin CO2 to ±0% and to keep use of the Kyoto
mechanism to -1.8%. Then I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-1. This shows the amount of GHGs
emission from each sector. When seeing this, it turns out that the energy origin CO2
occupies most GHGs of whole Japan. Furthermore it turns out that the growth of
residential and commercial sector and transportation sector is remarkable. Moreover
the amount of energy origin CO2 emission in 1990 is 287,000,000t-C, and if special
measures are not taken (BAU), the amount will increase in 60,000,000t-C, and it will
be 347,000,000t-C. 60,000,000t-C increase corresponds to about 17.8% increase
compared with the amount of emission in 1990. Therefore, how Japan will reduce this
energy origin CO2 holds the key of -6% reduction. Then in this Ⅱ, we want to verify
whether each sector can act as Global Warming Prevention Action Plan chapter focusing
on energy origin CO2. Moreover Japan’s marginal reduction cost is said to be the
highest in the world. Therefore Japan will be able to achieve the reduction target
with lower cost when Japan makes the best use of Kyoto Mechanism. (for details, Ⅲ
chapter describes). However, it is defined to the Kyoto mechanism shall be
supplemental to domestic actions. Therefore, in Global Warming Prevention Action Plan,
the utilization of the Kyoto
mechanism is refrained to 1.8%. We verify whether this number is reasonable in chapter
3.
Fig.Ⅱ-1 The amount of GHGs emission from each sector
electricity generationsector
industry sector residential andcommercial sector
transportation sector CH4・N2O・non-energy origin CO2
Increase of other gases(HFC・PFC・SF6)
22.36
127.90
80.45
72.27
33.00
12.55
20.73
135.00
71.45
57.27
31.36
13.91
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00GHGs(1,000,000t-C)
1990
1998
The energy origin CO2
Source ”The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
Fig. Ⅱ-2 Global Warming Prevention Action Plan
electricity generation sector +5%industry sector -7%regidential & comertial sector ±0%transportation sector +17%
CH4・N2O・non-energy origin CO2Increase of other gases (HFC・PFC・SF6Revolutionary technology improvementRemovals by sink
Covered by Kyoto Mechanisms
Items Targets
+2%-2%
redu
ctio
n by
dom
estic
mea
ures en
ergy
orig
in C
O2
-3.7%-1.8%
-6%
±0%
-0.5%
Source “Global Warming Prevention Action Plan”
2. The energy origin CO2
As mentioned above, in order to refrain energy origin CO2 to ±0%, it is necessary
to reduction 60,000,000t-C. The specification serves as 3,500,000t-C in the *** sector,
and serves as 16,500,000t-C in the industry sector, served as 27,300,000t-C in the
residential and commercial sector, and served as 12,700,000t-C in the transportation
sector.
(1) Energy conversion division (electric entrepreneur)
a. The status quo
The amount of CO2 emission discharged directly by energy conversion sector
is about 100,230,000t-C. About 30% of the whole CO2 discharge of Japan is formed
(figure Ⅱ-1 inner side). However, it is set to about 7% at a rate after distributing
the amount of CO2 emission (after electric power distribution) discharged by power
generation to each sector according to electric power consumption (figure Ⅱ -1
outside). In the industry sector, the residential and commercial sector, and the
transportation sector, the data after electric power distribution are treated.
Although the amount of CO2 emission discharged from an energy conversion division
is greatly influenced by the diversification of energy demand, its reaction by power
supply composition is also large. Generally by the tackle of measures against energy
in other divisions, an energy conversion division's amount of reduction decreases.
However the reaction an energy conversion sector's tackle affects each section by
electric power distribution is not few.
Fig.Ⅱ-3 Specification by the sector of the amount of CO2 discharge in 1999
30%
32%
11%
21%
6%
7%
41%
25%
21%
6%electricity generationsector
industy sector
residential and commercialsector
transportation sector
others
Source “Ministry of the Environment”
b. Reduction target and discharge result
The amount of CO2 discharge is 21,000,000t-C in 1990. Fig.Ⅱ-2 shows BAU
scenario is setting to 25,000,000t-C of the increase 19% compared with 1990. Then
present measure scenario is setting to 22,000,000t-C of the increase 4% compared with
1990. Moreover the amount of CO2 emission has been a horizontal mostly after 1990.
Fig.Ⅱ-4 Energy conversion sector's amount of energy origin CO2 emission
21 2122 22
23 2322
2322
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
milliont-C25
22
+19% compared with1990
+4% compared with1990
BAU scenario
present measure scenario
Source “Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”
c. The amount of electric power demand and CO2 emission specific-productivity
However the amount of electric power demand, and the amount of CO2 emission
per amount of electric power demand (CO2 emission specific productivity) are changing
greatly. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-3. Electric-power demand of Japan has been increased
by about 3 times after the oil crisis of the 1970s. However, CO2 emission specific
productivity has been reduced about 40% by the introductory enlargement of the nuclear
power generation. Therefore, the amount of CO2 emission from an electric entrepreneur
is kept about twice compared with 1970.
Fig.Ⅱ-5 Transition of the amount of CO2 emission from electricity business
Source “Federation of Electric Power Companies”
d. CO2 emission reduction target of Federation of Electric Power Companies
According to the voluntary action plan of Federation of Electric Power
Companies, the amount of power-generation will expect in 2010 growth about 1.5 times
as many as it compared with 1990. However, they say that the total amount of CO2
emission is kept about 1.2 times growth by nuclear exploitation. This means reducing
CO2 discharge specific productivity from 0.42kg-CO2/kWh in 1990 to about 0.3kg-CO2/
kWh.
e. The effective range and feasibility of the voluntary action plan
However CO2 emission curb target of the voluntary action plan does not change
mostly from BAU scenario. The further tackle is required in order to hold down to
4% appreciation compared with 1990. Furthermore, in the prospect of Federation of
Electric Power Companies, CO2 emission specific productivity is presupposing that
it will go up to 0.4kg-CO2/kWh in 2005. The big reason is the rate of the atomic energy
occupied in the amount of power-generation will be decreased.
f. The possibility to achieve the target
According to the power-generation plan of the electric entrepreneur, the
ratio of LNG, hydraulic power, coal oil, etc. will decrease, and the ratio of coal
firepower and atomic energy will increase. (Table Ⅱ-2). An exploitation project
stands for the power-generation facilities established newly, and an output in 2010
stands for an output of the sum-total power-generation facilities in 2010. However,
some exploitation plans assumed 13 nuclear power plants will establish. If only 7
nuclear power plants will be able to establish newly, a nuclear ratio decreases from
plans. That is, whether 13 nuclear power plants can be newly established as a target
has grasped the key of the feasibility of the voluntary action plan.
Fig.Ⅱ-6 electricity entrepreneur's power-generation plan
Type An exploitation project
(10,000kW)
An output in 2010
(10,000kW)
Nuclear power 1,694(13) 6,185
Hydraulic power 70 2,069
Pumped hydro power 270 2,741
Coal fire power 1,565 4,413
NLG fire power 1,100 6,696
Petroleum fire power 169 4,694
LPG fire power 39 377
Geothermal power 2 54
Source “Agency of Natural Resources and Energy”
(2) Industry sector a. Introduction
Before describing the measure of industry sector, I describe what status the sector
is now. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-6. You can see the amount of exhaust is repeated
going up and down from 1990. The amount of curtailment in this sector in fundamental
principle is 16.5Mt-C among the whole 60Mt-C. So, as it will be also in the measure
scenario, it needs to decrease it to 126Mt-C until 2010. Both the Ministry of
Environment and the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry show original measure as
this 16.5Mt-C reduction measure scenario. If both the Ministry’s 16.5Mt-C
curtailment plan are seen, you can understand that they depend on the voluntary action
plan.
Fig.Ⅱ-7 BAU scenario and the measure scenario of the amount of energy origin CO2
discharge in figure
134 133 130 128133 134 135 135 129
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
milliont-C
BAU scenario
present measurescenario
142
126
comparedwith 1990
+6%compared with
1990-6%
Source) Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”
b. Voluntary action plan
The voluntary action plan is started as “Federation of Economic Organizations
environmental voluntary action plan” on June 17, 1997. It started with 36
occupational descriptions, and now the number increased to 43. Keidanren (Federation
of Economic Organizations) holds up the target of “trying hard so that the amount
of CO2 emission from a industry sector and an electricity generation sector in 2010
may be restrained below on the level of 1990”, and they are tackling hard toward
this. In order to achieve this target, follow up is performed every year. According
to this follow up emissions of CO2 in fiscal 1999 were 0.1% lower than in fiscal 1990.
For this reason they insist that it is as a result of efforts by the respective
industries. (Figure Ⅱ-8)
FigureⅡ-8
Improvements in electric power consumption per
unit output -2.2%
Efforts by the respective industries -2.1%
Expansion of economy +4.2%
Total -0.1%
Source) Keidanren “Regarding Results of the 3rd Follow-up to the
Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment“
c. Point of issue
As for the voluntary action plan, the Ministry of Environment and Keidanren are just
actively arguing about this plan now. The Ministry of Environment insists that there
are four issues. First is about the target which voluntary action plan has held up.
If you sum up the target of an individual occupational description, you can find it
is different from the unification target of Keidanren (Table 4). Second is about the
rate of a cover. The present voluntary action plan is not covering medium and small
enterprises, so it needs some kind of measure that urges their participation. Third
is about efforts by the respective industries. They insist that the percent of efforts
by the respective industries (-2.1% on TableⅡ-3) isn’t correct. The total of –0.1%
isn’t achieved by its efforts but by improvements in electric power consumption per
unit output. Last is about the follow up. Since the follow up hasn’t done by fair
third-party agency, as for voluntary action plan, it is unreliable.
On the other hand Keidanren is claimed to this evaluation, and taking absolute
opposite posture to economic-control-implements. Moreover Keidanren clarified the
object to examine the institution of third-party certification according to the
private sector. By this, Keidanren is going to raise the reliability much more.
d. Summary
In this way, the voluntary action plan is point of an argument for industry sector
just now. As long as looking figure Ⅱ-6, it is thought that Keidanren’s voluntary
action plan is going well so that we should look after their tackle for a while. But
in order to raise the certainty, we have to think about what to do if the voluntary
action plan couldn’t achieve the target and how to urge medium and small enterprises
to participate on voluntary action plan.
(3) Residential and commercial sector
CO2 emission from residential sector is produced by energy use in houses, and CO2
emission from commercial sector is produced by energy use in offices, shops, hospitals
and so on.
a. Present situation
The amount of CO2 emission from residential and commercial sector in 1999 is about
80.5 Mt-C. This emission amounts to 22.1% of the emission from all sectors in Japan.
b. The estimate of the amount of CO2 emission
I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-9. This figure shows BAU scenario and present measure
scenario of the amount of energy origin CO2 emission in residential and commercial
sector. The amount of CO2 emission in 1998 is 81 Mt-C, which means an increase of
17.8% compared with 1990. The target of residential and commercial sector under the
global warming prevention action plan is to refrain the emission to 71.7Mt-C(±0%
compared with 1990). However, the amount of CO2 emission in 2010(BAU scenario) is
estimated at 99Mt-C(increase of 38% compared with 1990). So it is necessary to reduce
27Mt-C CO2 emission in order to achieve the target.
Fig. Ⅱ-9 Energy origin CO2 emission of the residential and commercial sector
7278 76
81 83 82
74
8181
0
20
40
60
80
100
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
million t-C
99
72
BAU scenario
present measure scenario
+38%comparingwith 1990
±0%comparingwith 1990
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming
c. The analysis of the present measures
The following shows the present measures of residential and commercial sector and
their estimates of CO2 reduction.
Fig. Ⅱ-10 The breakdown of the present measures of residential and commercial sector
measures details of measuresestimates of CO2
reduction(million tons-C)
improvement of theequipment efficiency 9.7
propelling the heat insulation structure of the housing
propelling the heat insulation structure of the buildings
28℃ air-conditioning20℃ heating
shortening shower time by a minuteshortening TV time by an hour
efficient use of refrigeratorefficient use of bath
othersthe sread of high efficient light
the sread of high efficient liquid crystal displayunknown
27.4
improvement of the energyefficiency of the housing and
buildings10.3
fundamental changes tothe lifestyles of the
citizens5
technology deveropments 2.4
Total
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”
When you see this figure, it turns out there are 4 measures, improvement of the
equipment efficiency, improvement of the energy efficiency of the housing and
buildings, fundamental changes to the lifestyles of the citizens and technology
developments. The amount of CO2 reduction is estimated to each measure. If the
reduction succeeds as the estimates, the target of residential and commercial sector
under the Global Warming Prevention Action Plan, ±0% is going to be achieved. However
it is much doubtful whether the reduction succeeds. So we verified as follows if the
each measure is possible to achieve the target or not.
Improvement of the equipment efficiency
According to Fig.3-2, 9.7Mt-C, 35% of the amount of reduction in the whole residential
and commercial sector is estimated. The Revised Energy Conservation Law legally binds
this measure. Based on the revised energy conservation Law in 1998,
household-electric-appliances and OA apparatus are considered that improvement of
energy efficiency progresses steadily. However there are some factors that may offset
the effect by the efficiency improvement. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-11. This shows
the transit of the number of the households and the number of household’s members
in Japan. When seeing this, it turns out that the number of the households is increasing
consistently and in contrast, the number of household’s members is decreasing. When
it you see for only 11 years from 1990 to 2000, the number of households increased
by about 15.2%. Coming from this increase of the number of households, more and more
household-electric-appliances and OA apparatus are possessed. So there are some fears
that may offset the effect by the efficiency improvement. Moreover, it depends on
the life of the apparatus which it is used now and the priority of family budget whether
the new goods which efficiency has been improved based on the Law are actually
introduced into houses and offices. Although the Revised Energy Conservation Law
legally binds the improvements of equipment efficiency, it is uncertain whether the
new equipments is actually introduced and the reduction is going to succeed.
Fig. Ⅱ-11 the transition of the number of households and household’s members
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
year
thousa
nd
house
hold
4
”
47420 3.6
29146
1970 1980
Improvement of the energy efficiency of
According to Fig.3-2, 10.3Mt-C, 35% of the
and commercial sector is estimated. Th
insulation performance of housing had b
Conservation Law in 1979(old standard)
insulation performance was introduced and
Law, the standard was reinforced further,
The housing before 1972 is called out of
41146(1990)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
the numberof households
the numberofhousehold’smembers
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
2.7
1990 2000
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target
the housing and buildings
amount of reduction in the whole residential
e energy conservation standard as to heat
een reinforced gradually since the Energy
. In 1992, new standard for reinforcing
in 1998, in the Revised Energy Conservation
which is called next generation standard.
date housing. Thereby, the heat insulation
performance of all the housings average is expected that it is improving gradually.
However there also are some factors that may be offset the effect of the improvement
of heat insulation performance. I want you to see Fig.Ⅱ-12 and Fig.Ⅱ-13. Fig.Ⅱ
-12 shows the transition of the number of new constructed housings classified by
heat-insulation performance, and Fig.Ⅱ-13 shows the transition of the housing stock
by heat insulation performance. As shown in Fig.Ⅱ-12, the rate of the housings with
good heat insulation performance (new standard and newt generation standard) is
expanded. Seeing Fig.Ⅱ-13, however, it turns out that more than half of the total
housing have the heat insulation performance worse than old standard, and the quantity
of total housing stock is increasing. This is because it takes long period of time
to replace the housing. These factors may be offset the effect of the improvement
of heat insulation performance. Then it is also uncertain that the reduction of this
measure is going to succeed.
Fig.Ⅱ-12 the transition of the number of new constructed housings classified by
heat-insulation performance
Fig.Ⅱ-13 the transition of the housing stock by heat insulation performance
Fundamental changes to the lifestyles of the citizens
It depends on the users whether the Measures, such as 28 degrees air conditioning
and 20 degrees heating, are carried out. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the amount
of reduction is going to be achieved.
Technology development
This reduction depends on future technical development. Therefore it is uncertain
whether it is put to practical use or not and whether this reduction is achieved.
As a result of the vilification of each measure, we concluded that it is difficult
for residential and commercial sector to achieve the target under the Global Warming
Prevention Action Plan.
(4) Transportation sector
a.Introduction
The target for the transportation sector is to cut down the CO2 emission in
2010 to the level of 17% increase comparing with the emission of the baseyear (1990).
But, as shown in figure2-10, this sector’s emission in 1998 has already risen to
the level of 21.1% increase. If there are no indications of rapid reduction in the
early future, it means that the present measures aren’t taking effect, or it is
insufficient.
The purpose of this chapter is to clarify whether the present measures in
this sector will work out, And if not, to cite the important points for the additional
measures that must be adopted for the achievement of the target.
FigureⅡ-14 Energy-origin CO2 emission of the Transportation sector
5861 62 62
6669 70 70
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
million t-C
BAU scenario
present measurescenario
+40% comparingwith 1990
+17% comparingwith 1990
81
68
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”
b.The analysis of the present situation
As shown in figureⅡ-15, almost 90% of the GHG emissions in this sector are from
the automobiles, and as shown in figure2-12 & figure2-13, the GHG emissions from other
conveyances (aviation, railroad, shipping) haven’t changed of late in both freight sector
and passenger sector. Moreover, also the emission of CO2 from freight cars in the
freight sector hasn’t changed of late. (The CO2 emission has bean suppressed to 5.9%
increase comparing with the 1990’s) However, the increase of CO2 emission from
automobiles in the passenger sector has been rising rapidly, and it has extended to
the level of 32% increase comparing to 1990.
From these facts, the achievement of this sector will depend on whether the
emissions from the automobiles, especially automobiles in the passenger sector, are
reduced. Having it based in this, validity of the present measures will be assayed below.
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target
FigureⅡ-15 GHG emissions of each means of 「transportation
53.4 30.7
2.2
1.6
2.7
5.5
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
privately-owned cars freight cars business-used cars
buses railroad shipping
aviation
automobiles 87.9%
”
Figure Ⅱ-16
CO2 emission in the passenger sector
Figure Ⅱ-17
CO2 emission in the freight sector
c.The validity of the present measures
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
table Ⅱ-1 the present measures in the transportation sector
reductiontarget
(million t-C)percentage measures
Ameasure with a dentified objectivethat are enacted on law
3.5 27%improvement of energy efficiency based onthe "energy-saving law"
B
measures with promotive policy tomake in common use
4.8 37%
traffic congestion eased by ITS,promotion of teleworks, introduction ofclean-energy cars, trailerizement andenlargement of vehicles, Maintenance ofcoastal roads, etc
C
measures to enlighten (validitiesdepending on the users)
4.4 34%
promotion of the use of publicinstitution, rize of loadage on freightcars, restraint of iddling, abrupt startand stop, restraint of car-use, etc
D
measures witch are not in praticaluse (validities depending ontechnical innovations )
0.3 2% high-performance electromobiles, etc
The type of measures
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“Basic Policies Relating to the Prevention of Global Warming”
The present measures and their reduction targets are shown on tableⅡ-1 above. Since
the amount of CO2 emission from automobiles is considered to depend on “the number”,
“the mileage” and the “road situation and traveling distance”, validity of the
present measures will be assayed from these three viewpoints. (The alphabets below show
the types of measures witch are shown in tableⅡ-1.)
The number of automobiles
There are no measures witch can directly reduce the increase in the number of
automobiles. Indirectly, “promotion of teleworks (C) ” and “ trailerizement and
enlargement of vehicles (C) ” might restrain the increase, but the effects are
uncertain. Moreover, there is a possibility that the new technologies, such as “ITS
(C)”, improve the convenience of the vehicles, and cause an increase in the number
of automobiles.
In 1998, the number of vehicles reached 7.4 million, an increase of 1.44 million
since 1990. The breakdown of those numbers is shown in figure2-14. In the figure,
the number of automobiles is increasing very rapidly. This is the main cause of the
increase in CO2 emission from the automobiles in passenger sector. With measures with
pour effectiveness to restraint the increase in number of vehicles, rapid reduction
can’t be expected.
Figure Ⅱ-18 the number of vehicles hold
The Council of Road Traffic Noise “the situation of road traffic”
Mileage (fuel efficiency)
The present measures that have relation to the mileage are,
① “Improvement of energy efficiency based on the "energy-saving law"(A)”
② “Restraint of idling, abrupt start and stop (C)”
③ “High-performance electro mobiles (D)”.
about ①
As shown in figureⅡ-18, the "energy-saving law" made a great improvement in the
theoretical mileage (new cars). But, there are no signs of improvement in both
theoretical mileage (stock) and the practical mileage. The factor of this can be
considered as “abolish of the commodity tax”, “modification of automobile taxes
witch has less incentive to choose light weighted cars than the previous taxes” and
“change in tastes of consumers” witch increased the average weight of vehicles
(figure Ⅱ-20).
Figure Ⅱ-19 transition of theoretical mileage and practical mileage
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
figure Ⅱ-20 the average weight of vehicles
1.01
1.03
1.06
1.08
1.12
1.141.15
1.171.18
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
〔ton〕
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
That is to say, though the mileage of each automobile has improved greatly, the
increase of number and the weight has cancel out the effect of the "energy-saving
law". As a result, reductions of 350 million ton-C in table2-8 have become impossible
with the present measures.
about②
Since the main action of the measures will be an announcement to the users of the
vehicles, it is difficult to estimate the propagation of each measure. As a result,
the effect of the measure will be uncertain, and to achieve the amount of reduction
planned will be difficult.
about③
Reductions by introducing an epoch-making new technology are anticipated greatly,
and many auto manufacturers are working on it hard. However, It is not favorable to
include the uncertain particulars in the calculation.
Road situation and traveling distance
The present measures that have relation to the road situation and traveling distance
are,
① “promotion of the use of public institution (C)”
② “restraint of car-use (C)”
③ “traffic congestion eased by ITS (B)”
④ “promotion of teleworks (B)”
⑤ “maintenance of coastal roads (B)”.
about①&②
As mentioned above, since the main action of the measures will be an announcement
to the users of the vehicles, it is difficult to estimate the propagation of each
measure. As a result, the effect of the measure will be uncertain, and to achieve
the amount of reduction planned will be difficult.
about③&④&⑤
Figure Ⅱ-12 shows the additional cost2 of each measure. For example, “preparation
of ITS” costs 2.3million yens, and the “motor-shift trucks to railway” costs 200
thousand yens. In the other hand, there is a calculation witch certificates that,
the reduction of the total CO2 in the reduction target can be achieved by introducing
a carbon-tax. In this case it only costs 34,000yens/t-C.3 When comparing the cost
2 The additional-cost is an expense that is required in order to reduce more greenhouse gases comparing to the "present measure scenario" . It contains not only the direct cost for investment in plant and equipment and the running cost (maintenance, energy and labor costs etc.), but also the cost for the government (preparation for infrastructures) and the subsidiary effects (such as convenience, time reduction, safety, risk avoidance, prevention of air pollution)". 3 Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency “The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
of the present measures with the introduction of carbon-tax, it is obvious that there
expenditures are very high. The cost and the benefits must be well investigated.
Table Ⅱ-2 economic valuation of the measures
subsidiaryeffects
cerntainty
motor-shift from land to sea 730 270 ○ C
improvement of practical mileage 57,000 6,800 ○ B
miniaturization of vehicles 57,000 3,300 ○ B
motor-shift from trucks to rail-way 200,000 30 ○ C
practical use of public transportation (preparation of bus service 290,000 1,700 ○ A
improvement of road traffic in urbans (ITS) 2,300,000 320 ◎ B
efficienting freight traffic (joint transport) 4,100,000 3,800 ○ C
practical use of public transportation (preparation of traffic syste 6,400,000 680 ○ C
techniquesadditional
reduction cost〔yen/t-C〕
additionalreduction
〔1000 t-CO2〕
valuation ofuncertainties
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
d.consequence It is impossible to achieve the reduction target with the present measures.
Additional measures must be taken. The matters that must be investigated when
introducing an additional are shown below.
・ Reduce emissions especially from the automobiles in passenger sector)
・ Supplement the reduction that might exceed because of the measures that there
effects are uncertain
Ⅲ The importance of applying the Kyoto Mechanism
In Chapter Ⅱ, the subject measures based on global-warming Prevention Action
Plan has been clarified. However, at first we go back to the presupposition of argument,
and want to improve about the validity of the reduction target in Global Warming
Prevention Action Plan. We considered it is not the best way for Japan to reduce CO2
emission according to the Action Plan. The reduction costs have to be considered much
more. Japan has to improve the reduction target, and utilize the Kyoto Mechanism more
flexible.
First of all, we have to check about the status quo and the prospect of the amount
of energy origin CO2 emission of Japan. As shown in FigureⅢ-1, the amount of energy
origin CO2 in 1990 is 287 million t-C and if any special measures is not taken (BAU)
it will increase to 347 million t-C. When carrying out present measure at electricity
generation sector, industry sector, residential & commercial sector, and
transportation sector, it will increase 31 million t-C and become 315 million t-C
in 2010. If this is calculated from whole amount of GHGs emission in 1990, it will
become +9.2% of appreciation. It is as already stated in advance that the causes
of sector which increasing emission of energy origin CO2 is residential & commercial
sector and transportation sector. Since the reduction target of energy origin CO2
in the Action Plan target is ±0%, it must carry out additional measure to reduce
+9.2%. But this is laying stress on domestic measure too much. Taking the present
measure, the practical use of Kyoto Mechanism is only 1.8%. If 16.7% reduction is
performed only as domestic measure, about 90% will be reduced by domestic measure.
As a result of this, it will clearly affect Japanese economy.
FigureⅢ-1 The estimation of energy origin CO2 emission in Japan
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
base year (1990) BAU scenario the presentmeasure scenario
target planned inthe presentmeasures
mill
ion t
on-C
+20.9%
+10.9%±0%
Central Environmental Council of Environmental Agency
“The Scenarios for the Achievement of the Target”
Comparing with EU and United States, it can be also said that it is very difficult
for Japan to achieve the target. At first, look at figure Ⅲ-2 which is comparing
the amount of CO2 emission per capita in 1998. It shows that the amount of CO2 emission
per capita in Japan is much fewer than United State. Next, look at figure Ⅲ-3 which
is comparing the marginal reduction cost. The marginal reduction cost of Japan is
1.5 times of EU, and about 2 times of United States. From these two figures, the cost
of emission reduction in Japan is much higher than EU and United States. Further more,
look at figure Ⅲ-4 which indicates reduction targets and the amount of CO2 emission
in 1990 and 1999. Japan and United States have the amount of GHGs emission in increase
disposition, and on the other hand EU is in reduction disposition from 1990. It is
the cause of energy composition’s having changed greatly from 1990 in Britain and
Germany, and it contributed to the reduction of GHGs emission in EU. In Britain, the
energy measure has changed from coal to natural gas since exploitation of North Sea
oil fields, and because of this, 6.5% amount of CO2 emission has decreased from 1990.
Also in Germany that was integrated in 1990, environment measure was improved in East
Germany, so that 12.6% amount of CO2 emission has decreased from 1900. Since the amount
of CO2 emission of Britain and Germany occupies 48% of whole EU emission in 1990,
the reduction in these two countries has contributed to whole EU. Although EU was
burdened with the severest reduction target (-0.8%) in the Kyoto Protocol, it has
prepared difference in the target of each country in EU. The specification is crossed
to large area from –28% of Luxembourg to +27% of Portugal. This is called EU bubble.
Each country in EU can cope with global-warming problem flexible, and can reduce the
impact to economy. Such a thing makes it easy for EU to achieve the target. As compared
with overseas, it clarified that a reduction cost of Japan is very high. If Japan
carries out domestic measure as the reduction target of the Action Plan, and using
Kyoto Mechanism only 1.8%, the influence to the economy will be serious. Therefore,
the reduction target of the Action Plan has to be reconsidered, and Japan should use
Kyoto Protocol more flexible.
The domestic measure that does not affect on domestic economy seriously have to
be carried out, and we think Japan should expand its use of Kyoto Mechanism in order
to achieve the reduction target.
FigureⅢ-2 amount CO2 emission per person of Japan,Germany,USA (1998)
9.410.8
20.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Japan Germany USA
t-C
O2/pe
rson
FigureⅢ -3 Marginal reduction cost to achive the target (1998)
050
100150200250300350400450
Japan EU USA
US$
FigureⅢ -4 Actual Co2 emission and target of Japan, EU, USA
01000200030004000500060007000
1990 1999 target
CO2
mill
ion
ton
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
JapanEUUSAJapanEUUSA
Last of all We described the present condition of the global warming problem in chapter 1.
In chapter 2, we described the necessity for ratification, and verified the tackle
to global warming problem of Japan. Based on this verification, we proved that it
is impossible for Japan to achieve the reduction target by the present measures, and
so additional measure is necessary. However if Japan makes reduction additionally
by domestic measures, the impact for Japanese economy will be very serious compared
with overseas. Therefore, in chapter 4, we came to the conclusion that Japan should
review the Global Warming Prevention Action Plan and expand its use of Kyoto mechanism
instead of taking additional domestic measures.
Global warming problem cannot be solved in several years, and should be tackled in
the long run, several decades, or several hundred years. From these viewpoint, Japan
should tackle global warming problem flexibly.
ANNEX Ⅰ
Introduction
The main subject has described the importance of the Kyoto mechanism when Japan
ratifies the Kyoto protocol. However, which Kyoto Mechanism surely poses a question
for Japan that cannot but use the Kyoto Mechanism. Although idea that an emission
trading becomes the cheapest in three Kyoto mechanisms are in use, providing all with
it cannot be necessarily the best plan for Japan. It is because that its price and
amount are uncertain. Even the condition of emission trading which each country can
merchant at present is undecided. Japan must avoid becoming it impossible to achieve
the target, because of emission trading shortage. For that, examination should fully
be put about the two remaining Kyoto mechanisms, and the risk should be distributed.
Furthermore we have to pay an attention that emission trading and joint
implementation are performed only between AnnexⅠ countries. If the whole world is
aimed at sustainable development, it is indispensable to tackle a global warming
problem with countries not included in AnnexⅠ that the amount of discharge of CO2
will increase from now on. Therefore, the moment of CDM will increase for the world
and Japan. In this AnnexⅠ we clarify CDM between China and Japan is not only important
for Japan but also for China.
1.To solve air pollution in China
A high economic growth rate has continued for more than twenty years in China. The
mean growth rate secures 9.8%, and is maintaining remarkable economical development.
However, the distortion accompanied by high economic growth called air pollution has
surfaced like Japan had experienced before. Also, a Chinese air-pollution problem
does not stop in China, but it is also turning into an international problem in that
Japan and Southeast Asia are also affected in recent years. CDM with Japan is one
effective means that can solve this problem.
Featuring Chinese air-pollution problem at first, it is mentioned that energy
inclines toward coal too much. In China, it depends on coal for about three-forth
of consumption energy. The influence of coal given to air pollution compared with
other fossil fuels is so large that it is making Chinese air pollution serious.
Next, the contents of the concrete air pollution by combustion of the coal are
described. If coal is burnt, in connection with it, a lot of SOx and NOx will be
discharged. This becomes the cause of air pollution. If it says about SOx here, the
amount of discharge of China in 1996 is about 13,640,000t. This is high to the next
in the United States which discharges the most among OECD countries. Moreover, when
SOx discharge coefficient per GDP unit of each country compares this by the relation
with an economic scale, the level of SOx discharged by producing the same GDP of 1000
dollars is 32kg in China, 2.5kg in United States, and 0.4kg in Japan. It can be said
that coal in China is not efficiently used from this numerical value.
When how to improve air pollution in China is considered from the above thing,
there are two directivities. First is the method of converting the energy which
influences little to environment, such as petroleum and a natural gas, from coal.
The second is the method of improving energy efficiency. However, when such time is
taken into consideration to a Chinese energy situation or energy conversion, probably,
the second method is effective. Therefore, in order to solve present Chinese air
pollution, it is indispensable to improve energy efficiency of coal at first.
Ⅱ.Toward CDM with China
Japan is already also tackling the project in China as Activities Implemented
Jointly (AIJ). It is more cost effective for Japan to do CDM in China.
Present Japan is tackling three projects as AIJ with China. The first is a project
aiming at the improvement in the energy efficiency and the environmental preservation
by fugitive gas captured and practical use. To achieve this project Coke Dry-Quenching
Facility (CDQ) have to installed in the Chinese coke furnace. The influence of the
environment on the cause of air pollution is seen conventionally. It is reducible
682,700t-CO2 in 20 years. The second is a project aiming at the improvement in energy
efficiency by installation of Electric Furnace Used for Ferro Alloy Refining. The
CO2 curtailment effect will predict 290,500t-CO2 in 10 years. The third is a project
aiming at the exhaust-gas recovery by use of the waste heat from incineration of
garbage in Harbin. The CO2 curtailment effect will predict 418,740t-CO2 in 10 years.
Thus, the joint implementation is already progressing steadily, and surely the
activity of China and Japan will become a certainly important thing in the future.
Conclusion
When the global-warming problem is considered, the participation of developing
countries on this problem is indispensable. Especially the participation of China
will become more important. However, it is not necessarily right to press China and
other countries not included in AnnexⅠ to do same things as countries in AnnexⅠ.
It will needs to impose other kind of responsibility different from countries in Annex
Ⅰ to tackle the global-warming problem. To tackle this problem, developing countries
will needs support of the technology and know-how of countries in AnnexⅠ, and for
this co-operation will be done by CDM.
We have to remind that whether economical development and the environmental
preservation are in the relation of trade-off. Surely, economical development in the
20th century will consist at the sacrifice of the environmental preservation. However,
various technologies in recent years and activities are changing this relation. CDM
between Japan and China which we have described this time performs simultaneous
curtailment of SO x and CO2. This is certainly can be called bottom rise-approach
of the tackle to the global-warming problem, which aimed at coexistence of economy
and environment. We hope these CDM will become of model case that advanced country
and developing country tackle at earth-environment problem.
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