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DTIC
SU
DEPARTMENT OFTHAIFOC
AIRFORCTENSTFTE AIOFREOLG
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio
90 12 i(0 099
AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2
DTICDEC 1 11990 U
IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISM INCOMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING THE
KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT USING A HISTORICALAIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL
THESIS
Lyndon S. AndersonCaptain, USAF
AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2
Approved ;c:r public release; distribution unlimited
The opinions and conclusions in this paper are those of theauthor and are not intended to represent the officialposition of the DOD, USAF, or any other government agency.
Accecion For I
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iAvIwbhity Codes
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AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2
IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISM IN COMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING
THE KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT USING A HISTORICAL AIRCRAFT
MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL
THESIS
Presented to the Faculty of the School of Systems and Logistics
of the Air Force Institute of Technology
Air University
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in Logistics Management
Lyndon S. Anderson, B.S.
Captain, USAF
September 1990
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Acknowledgements
Many dedicated personnel worked hard to help ensure the
successful accomplishment of this thesis effort. First and
foremost, I am deeply indebted to my thesis advisor, Lt Col
Phillip Miller, for his expert guidance, steadfast support,
and rapid straight-forward feedback. To Captain Russell S.
Hall, I would like to express my gratitude and admiration.
His fortitude early in the project helped get this research
effort off on the right track. His methodical and insight-
ful research is deserving of the highest praise.
I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to
Col Linville and his staff at HQ SAC/LGL whose sponsorship
and support made this thesis effort possible. The same
appreciation is expressed to Maj Lassen and his staff at the
4950th OMS for their research support; to Maj Riggins and Lt
(Navy) McNeeley at AFIT/LSG for their computer programming
expertise; to CMSgt Koslic at the llth Strategic Group, RAF
Fairford, UK for gathering the source data used for this
thesis effort; to MSgt Knopes at HQ SAC/LGSMO for providing
the War Readiness Spares Kit listings; and to all the volun-
teers who assisted me during the mock exercise.
Finally, and most importantly, a special thanks goes to
my loving wife Trudy, and my beautiful daughters Nicole and
Megan for their understanding, encouragement, love and
support. To them I dedicate this thesis.
Lyndon S. Anderson
ii
Table of Contents
Page
Acknowledgements.....................ii
List of Figures......................vi
List of Tables......................vii
Abstract........................viii
I. Introduction.....................1-1
Background...................1-1General Issue..................1-4Problem Statement.................1-15Research Objective...............1-5Investigative Questions.............1-5Scope......................1-6Assumptions...................1-6Limitations...................1-6Key Terms and Definitions............1-7Summary....................1-10
II. Literature Review..................2-1
General.....................2-1Military Exercises................2-2Logistics....................2-4Realism.....................2-6Command Post Exercises.............2-8Summary....................2-13
III. Methodology....................3-1
Overview....................3-1Data Collection.................3-2KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development . 3-3Information Guide Development..........3-4Developing and Conducting the Evaluation 3-5Test KC-135A/E/R Database Model.........3-7Analysis of Findings and Results ..... 3-8Summary.....................3-9
IV. Results, Findings, and Analysis...........4-1
Overview....................4-1Data Collection.................4-2KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development . 4-4
iii
Full Version ....... ............. 4-4Practice Database .. .......... 4-9
Information Guide .... ............. 4-10Evaluation Survey Development ........ .. 4-12Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model 4-14
Composition of the Mock Exercise 4-16Evaluation Survey 1, Results ..... 4-18Analysis of Findings and Results . . . 4-31
Non-statistical Analysis . . .. 4-31Statistical Analysis ...... 4-40
Identifying Confounds . . 4-40
Analyzing Modified Data 4-51
Evaluation Survey 2 Data Analysis 4-54
Summary .............. ............. 4-55
V. Conclusions and Recommendations .. ......... .. 5-i
Overview ...... ................... 5-1Primary Findings .... ............. 5-2Conclusions ......... ................ 5-4Recommendations ........ .............. 5-5
Handling Research Documents ..... 5-5
Future Research ... ........... 5-5
Summary .......... .................. 5-7
Appendix A: KC-135A/E/R Aircraft MaintenanceLogistics Database .. ......... A-i
Appendix B: Information Guide .. .......... B-i
Appendix C: Practice Database .. .......... C-i
Appendix D: CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 ...... D-i
Appendix E: Evaluation Surveys .. ......... E-i
Appendix F: Training Session Slides . ....... F-I
iv
Appendix G: Mock Exercise Team Mission Tasking
Orders....................G-1
Bibliography.......................BIB-i
Vita..........................VIT-1
tv
List of Figures
Figure Page
1. KC-135A/E/R Database Model Source Data Input .. 3-3
2. Graphical Comparison of Parts/Discrepancies
From ETTF Source Data...............4-39
3. Box and Whisker Plot Evaluation Survey 1 Data .. 4-43
4. Box and Whisker Plot of Data Set WithQuestion Six Removed...............4-48
B-i. Phase Inspection In a Nutshell..........B-7
B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell ............. B-9
B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols .. . . B-13
B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell .......... B-18
D-i. CPX MX Worksheet 1..................D-1
D-2. CPX MX Worksheet 2..................D-2
F-i. KCi35A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance DatabasePurpose.......................F-i
F-2. Phase Inspection Requirements ........... F-2
F-3. HPO Inspection Requirements.............F-3
F-4. Worksheet Plotting Requirements .......... F-4
F-5. Worksheet Plotting Requirements (Continued) ... F-5
F-6. Key To Timeline Documentation..........F-6
F-7. Background.....................F-7
F-B. Objectives.....................F-8
F-9. Exercise Support Material..............F-9
vi
List of Tables
Table Page
1. Research Methodology ..... .............. 3-1
2. Mock Exercise Team Compositionand Assignments ...... ................ 4-17
3. Evaluation Survey 1 Raw Data Matrix . ...... 4-41
4. Descriptive Statistics EvaluationSurvey 1 Data ...... ................. 4-42
5. Friedman Test Determination of Outliers . . . . 4-44
6. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Questions . ...... 4-47
7. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Respondents ..... .. 4-50
8. Descriptive Statistics Modified EvaluationSurvey 1 Data ...... ................. 4-52
0. Analysis of Modified Data Using
Friedman's Test ...... ......... ...... 4-54
B-i. Contingency Phase Inspection Times ........ .. B-8
B-2. Aircraft Phase and HPO Times at STARTEX . . . . B-14
vii
AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2
Abstract
This si-idy;, under the sponsorship of HQ SAC/LGL, inves-
tigated a method to improve realism in Command Post Exer-
cises (CPX) involving the KC-135A/E/R aircraft by developing
a historical database model. The model is based on the pre-
mise that realistic data collected from actual war-like
missions can be placed in a database for use by response
cell members to provide simulated, yet realistic, logistical
requirements during CPXs. European Tanker Task Force flying
mission data was used as source data for the development of
the model. Associated documentation was also developed to
support the model. A mock exercise simulating a CPX was
used to test the model and its associated documentation.
Analysis of the test results lead the researcher to conclude
that the model provides response cell members with a useful
tool to obtain realistic logistical information they need to
carry out their duties effectively. Recommendations in-
clude using the model and documentation as required by HQ
SAC/LGL, and conducting further research to test the hypo-
thesis that historical database models im r.ove realism at
the response cell level durin_ CPXs.
vii
viii
IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISMIN COMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING THE KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT
USING A HIc-'RICAL AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL
I. Introduction
Background
The national defense of the United States depends on
the ability of its military to successfully accomplish
national defense objectives. Of critical importance to the
military is how it prepares to carry out this tasking.
During peacetime, the military is always faced with the
dilemma of maintaining force readiness. A primary method
for maintaining force readiness is through the use of mili-
tary exercises.
Military exercises offer a tremendous opportunity to
prepare military forces for war. They have become one of
the most effective ways of educating military forces on the
experiences and rigors of war short of actual combat. More
effective still, are military exercises that successfully
create the illusion of reality. Realistic exercises can be
an extremely powerful influence, especially on those who
have limited operational experience (Perl., 1985:77). With
each passing year, fewer people with actual combat
i-i
experience remain in military service (Furlong, 1984:4). Of
critical importance, then, is generating as much reality as
possible within military exercises to get as much educa-
tional value as possible for an ever increasing in-
experienced force. Inexperience within the military can
have serious consequences in time of war. Failure to train
realistically can lead decision makers to draw conclusions
about war that could be disastrous (McCarty, 1988:2).
Improved exercise realism can be accomplished through
the use of logistic considerations. Frequently, as seen
throughout history, logistic considerations have been the
deciding factor between victory and defeat., The classic and
universal military problem of ignoring logistics (Russo,
1987:7) must be overcome. To put logistics in proper con-
text, Lt Col McCarty relates it to strategy and tactics by
stating "what a commander wants to do (strategy) through
the use of military forces (tactics) is almost totally
dependent on what there is to do it with (logistics)
(McCarty, 1988:19).'
Logistic consideratic,-q must assume equal prominence
with strategy. It has bee .ritten that there can be no
strategy without logistics. Jerome Peppers supports this by
identifying two important reasons. First, all nations are
constrained by limited resources, and as such, require a
logistics system to effectively use what resources are
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avai.lable. Second, a logistic system is made up of every-
thing other than operational employment, and must be treated
as such. Failure to do so can lead to a "dangerously thin
and weak philosophical foundation (Peppers, 1986:14)."
With these points in mind, military planners must
reconsider the objectives of military exercises with a
central issue revolving around how the element of realism
can best be achieved (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 2).
A number of logistical models have been developed to
provide improved realism in military exercises. The most
widely used model is mathematically based and uses random
number generators to determine logistic requirements. For
example, with command post exercises (CPX) , the logistic
requirements often controlled by a random number generrted
model include aircraft landing status, aircraft avail-
ability, and tim6 needed to repair the aircraft (Hall,
1989:Ch 2, 9).
A second type of logistic model, an aircraft main-
tenance database, can be used to improve realism in military
exercises. This model is based on the premise that histori-
cal data collected from actual aircraft deployments can be
used as both input and output for the model. With this
approach, the input of actual aircraft maintenance data is
captured and reused as output during an exercise. The
result thereby dramatically improves the realism of the
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logistic requirements of '%he exercise. The concept has an
added advantage of simplifying what otherwise would be a
difficult project to model using mathematical techniques
(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 7-8). As with the random number generator
model, logistic requirements most often controlled by the
aircraft maintenance database model during CPXs include
aircraft landing status, aircraft availability, and time
needei to repair the aircraft. Aircraft availability is a
critical limiting factor in force employment. Consequently,
"a valid, mature and consistently reliable means is needed
to govern aircraft availability and other logistic require-
ments during command post exercises where practically all
forces are simulated (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 3)."
General Issue
The Directorate of Contingency Logistics (LGL) at
Strategic Air Command (SAC) Headquarters wants to expand the
use of an aircraft maintenance database model to improve
logistics realism during European Command Post Exercises.
The B-52G aircraft maintenance database model has improved
management of aircraft availability, and has improved the
establishment of aircraft logistical requii-?ments at the
response cell level during CPXs.
1-4
Problem Statement
Logistics realism needs to be improved during command
post exercises involving [C-135A/E/R aircraft.
Research Objective
The objective of this research effcrt is to develop an
aircraft maintenance database model for the KC-135A/E/R
aircraft. The model will be an extension of the B-52G
aircraft maintenance database concept (See Hall, 1989:Ch 1,
4), and will be used by Strategic Air Command during command
post exercises. The researcher shall refer to the model as
the KC-135A/E/R database model.
Investigative Questions
The researcher will use the following investigative
questions to guide this research, and test whether the
concepts and design of the KC-135A/E/R database model can
improve logistics realism over current methods.
1. Can data from KC-135A/E/R aircraft flyingEuropean Tanker Task Force missions moreaccurately depict aircraft maintenance re-quirements than routine peacetime flying data?
2. Does statistical analysis support or rejectthe null hypothesis that there is no improveddifference in logistics realism between theKC-135A/E/R database model and mathematicalmodels currently in use?
3. Can the KC-135A/E/R database model be used todetermine aircraft availability based onlooistical support levels?
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4. Can realistic demands for aircraft spare partsbe determined effectively using the KC-135-A/E/R database model?
5. Can the KC-135A/E/R database model be designedin a manner for use in compressed exerciseschedules?
6. What limitations does the KC-135A/E/R databasemodel pose on response cell personnel, andwhat effect do these limitations have on theobjectives of the command post exercise?(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 8-9)
Scope
This thesis effort will provide a validated aircraft
maintenance logistics database for Strategic Air Command's
KC-135A/E/R tanker aircraft only. The basic concept, how-
ever, can be expanded to include other weapon systems simu-
lated during CPXs (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 9).
Assumptions
The KC-135A/E/R database model is developed based on
the assumption that the ETTF source data represents the best
available data that depicts expected wartime mission re-
quirements.
Limitations
The KC-135A/E/R database model is limited in its use by
factors that make up the source data. Factors such as
mission duration, repair turn around time, integrated combat
turn procedures, and surge conditions affect the development
of the KC-135A/E/R database model. Use of the model for
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applications with markedly different preconditions may
induce errors that may cause less realistic outcome from the
model (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 10). For example, during integrated
combat turns, the aircraft repair time (turn around time) is
generally much shorter because maintenance and refueling
procedures, normally performed separately, can be performed
concurrently.
Key Terms and Definitions
Aircraft Maintenance Database. A historical collection
of related maintenance and supply data arranged as a tabular
handbook that provides detailed aircraft logistical infor-
mation to response cell personnel for use during command
post exercises.
Aircraft Maintenance Landing Code. 'Codes assigned to
support inflight discrepancies during the provisioning
process to indicate to maintenance and supply personnel the
maintenance levels authorized to remove and replace, repair,
overhaul, assemble, inspect and test, and to condemn items
(McCann, 1981:409)."
Command Post Exercise. 'A military exercise in which
the existence and movement of combat forces is simulated
(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 11).'
1-7
Database. "A collection of detailed information on the
actual procedures used in planning and executing an activity
(McCann, 1981:194).*
European Tanker Task Force. A task force comprised of
tanker aircraft temporarily formed to support European
flying missions.
Field Training Exercise. *An exercise conducted in the
field under simulated war conditions in which troops and
armament of one side are actually present, while those of
the other side may be imaginary or an outline (DoD, 1987:143)."
Job Control Number. A seven digit number assigned to a
specific inflight discrepancy for use by maintenance person-
nel.
Maintainability. 'A characteristic of design and
installation expressed as the probability that an item will
be restored to a specific condition within a given period of
time when the maintenance is performed using prescribed
procedures and resourcs (McCann, 1981:406).'
Military Exercise. 'Any practice operation for the
purpose of increasing proficiency of personnel in the per-
formance of their tasks. In an exercise, simulated enemy
action is used as a training device for the friendly forces,
and may be wholly or partly imaginary. Unlike a maneuver,
an exercise is not intended to test proficiency, but is used
to develop it (Heflin, 1956:193)."
1-8
National Stock Number. 'A two part 13 digit stock
number assigned to each item of supply repetitively used,
purchased, stocked, or distributed within the federal
government (McCann, 1981:466)."
Nomenclature. "A set or system of official names or
titles given to items of material and equipment
(McCann, 1981:471).'
Response Cell. 'A small group of people deployed to a
forward operating location during command post exercises to
complete the communications loop to various head quarters
and mulate the existence, capabilities, and requirements
of c mbat forces (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 12)."
STARTEX. "Start date'and time of military exercise
(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 12).'
Task Force. 'A temporary grouping of units under one
commander formed for the purpose of carrying out a specific
operation or mission (Quick, 1973:473).'
War Game. 'A simulation, by what ever means, of a
military operation involving two or more opposing forces and
using rules, data and procedures designed to depict actual
or assumed real life situations (Quick, 1973:496).'
War Readiness Spares Kit (WRSK). *An air transportable
package of spares and repair parts required to sustain
planned wartime or contingency operations of a weapon system
for a specified period of time pending resupply (McCann,
1981:738).'
1-9
Work Unit Code (WUC). 'An alpha-numeric code made up
normally of two alpha characters which identify a specific
subsystem of an aircraft or other major equipment and three
numbers which identify a specific component within a sub-
system (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 13)."
Summary
This chapter provided an introductory explanation of
the need for increased logistics realism in military exer-
cises. Additionally, the specific research objective, key
investigative questions, research scope and limitations were
all discussed and will be used to direct the research ef-
fort. Chapter II will provide a review of the applicable
literature.
1-10
II. Literature Review
General
Preparation for war through peacetime training, as Karl
Von Clausewitz aptly explains in his book, On War, is a time
honored concept we in the Department of Defense must con-
tinue to exploit to the fullest (Clausewitz, 1950:332). The
ancient philosopher Horace once said, *a wise man in times
of peace prepares for war (Heinl, 1967:247.' Military
exercises provide the opportunity to test and improve the
capabilities of our forces short of actual combat (War Games
1984:1). A key element to the success or failure of any
military exercise is the element of logistics. "Logistics
provides the means and arrangements that bring strategy and
tactics together to provide combat power (Heinl, 1967:175)."
Good planning includes logistics and should go a step fur-
ther and include the element of realism. Realism by defini-
tion integrates logistics, strategy, and tactics to provide
a scenario that reasonably replicates war. Realism prepares
commanders for success in combat (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 5).
Command post exercises (CPX) attempt to provide logis-
tics realism by using different modeling approaches. These
exercises simulate the existence and movement of combat
forces, and heavily task communications and coordination of
the various elements of the exercise (Perry, 1987:9; Hall
and Miller, 1990:33). The [Air Force] should strive to
2-1
achieve as much logistics realism av possible in CPXs to
develop the wartime skills of our senior leadership and
their staffs by teaching them how to respond to realistic
wartime scenarios (Hoover, 1984:27). This literature review
examines the components: military exercise, logistics,
realism, and command post exercise to better explain their
relationships.
Military Exercises
Military exercises have long been recognized as an
important element in any effective military organization.
Field Marshal Erwin Rommel, a German battlefield General of
World War II, once said: 'the best form of 'welfare' for
the troops is first-class training (Heinl, 1967:323).*
Military exercises provide that training and give us an
opportunity to learn new procedures, learn from mistakes,
and hone warfighting skills. The practice we gain from
military exercises will eventually lead to a smooth, more
effective combat force.
Though military exercise should be used as tools to
improve war fighting capability, they are often misused and
fail to provide objectivity; rather, they may reflect a
biased point of view or promote a position favored by the
initiators of the exercise. Our system of validating exer-
cises tends to favor those exercises we win ,hile,,4 labelIng
those exercises we lose as 'unfair" or "unrealistic (Fur-
2-2
'Li
long, 1984:6-7).' Lt Cmdr John Melos (a pseudonym of an
active duty Naval Officer), states that "Naval exercises
frequently ignore inconvenient threats and disregard friend-
ly force losses (Melos, 1988:76)." He goes on to say that
commanders believe 'exercises must be a success where U.S.
forces win (Melos, 1988:76)." This approach can result in
planning that ignores potential threats in a real-world
situation. The general attitude prevailing in military
exercises is that the enemy is allowed to play, as long as
they don't adversely effect the desired outcome of the
exercise (Melos, 1988:77). Officers in charge of an exer-
cise will often attempt to create conditions that favor
success because they don't want it to appear that units
under their command 'failed' during an exercise (Melos,
1988:76). Our commanders must understand that we often
learn more by losing in a military exercise than in winning
(Furlong, 1984:7).
Throughout this literature review many articles voiced
criticism of military exercises with little emphasis on ways
to improve. Lt Col Hoover, however, in his article, 'Logis-
tics Realism in Exercises', proposes several basic improve-
ments for military exercises:
2-3
1. Expand senior management awareness of thecriticality of logistic realism in exerciseactivity.
2. Establish an active exercise management organ-ization at HQ USAF level to focus on logisticsaspects.
3. Eliminate current exercise magic and successassured planning.
4. Have fewer exercises of better quality.(Hoover, 1984:29)
Another method of improving the performance of military
exercises includes well thought-out logistical plans.
Logistics
Commanders of a military exercise must be fully aware
of how logistics can affect the progress and outcome of the
exercise (Eccles, 1982:23).
The need for commanders to understand the inter-
relationship between logistics, strategy, and tactics is
essential to success in war. The primary objective of
logistics is to sustain our combat forces (Eccles, 1959:35).
Failure to consider logistic requirements can lead to a
misunderstanding of what levels the logistics system can or
cannot support (Hall, 1989:Ch 5, 1). As Rear Admiral (ret)
Henry E. Eccles states in his book, Logistics in the Nation-
al Defense, 'Strategy and tactics provide the scheme for the
conduct of military operations; logistics provides the means
therefor (Eccles, 1959:19)." It is important, then, to
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realize that no strategic decision can be correct unless
adequate consideration has been given to logistics (Peppers,
1986:14).
There is often a communications disconnect between
logisticians and operators in understanding the principles
of logistics and how they relate to the bigger picture of
operational strategy and tactics. Col Gene S. Bartlow, in
his article "The Operator-Logistician Disconnect,' states
that operators and logisticians must understand each other's
world (Bartlow, 1988:23). He explains that operators often
don't understand the role logistics plays in warfare, and
logisticians don't understand the concepts of operation
(Bartlow, 1988:23). Because of this disconnect, well
planned exercises from an operations point of view will
often overlook logistical requirements (Ogan, 1983:21).
As commanders gain an understanding of how logistics
plays in warfare, they can factor logistics realism into
plans and concepts. Together, logistical requirements and
operational concepts can then be periodically exercised to
ensure operational requirements are met (Bartlow, 1988:23;
Gorby, 1980:25).
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Realism
Karl Von Clausewitz believed logistics realism must be
present in military exercises so officers can receive train-
ing in the "mechanical aspects of war (Furlong, 1984:5)."
Realism then, is the application of truthful planning fac-
tors for the situation described in the exercise scenario
(Hoover, 1984:27). Without logistics realism in military
exercises, officers become dubious in the presence of dan-
ger, death, and live ammunition (Heinl, 1967:57).
Logistics realism is imperative to any successful
military exercise. If an exercise does not provide realism,
the benefit of practice in real world application is lost
(Hoover, 1984:27). Exercise realism is a fundamental in-
gredient to gaining and maintaining the highest degree of
military proficiency (Hoover, 1984:27). When exercise
realism is coupled with logistics realism, commanders can
understand the types of material problems they may face.
Improved exercise and logistic realism will help commanders
prepare for the process of directing units and fighting in a
warbime environment (Furlong, 1984:5).
Lt Gen Raymond B. Furlong believes realistic military
exercises should identify and develop those officers who
have the character and intellect needed for success in
w, arf11are MO~ Ar4U49 hOepansta
exercises must reproduce "danger, exertion, uncertainty, and
2-6
chance,* along with resource limitations and resource losses
(Furlong, 1984:5). Lt Cmdr Melos supports this point as
well. He adds that realistic elements force the commanders
to experience the handling of forces that have taken losses,
instead of commanding forces that remain intact (Melos,
1988:77). They learn to find ut what really works and what
does not (Melos, 1988:77). Though realism is essential to
the development of sound leadership, it is constrained by
the element of time.
Time plays an important role with respect to realism.
Usually there is not enough time allowed in an exercise to
achieve the levels of realism needed to meet the objectives
of the exercise (Hagel, 1989:Ch 1, 4). However, with im-
proved planning, logistics realism can be incorporated in
exercises while staying within the time constraints of the
exercise and still provide a high degree of realism (Hoover,
1984:29). More important, though, are the effects simula-
tions have on realism in military exercises.
Simulations (or artificialities), if used unwisely,
fail to provide a realistic picture of events to the com-
manders (HQ MSG 102025Z, 1988:2-3). The simulations are
often so deeply entrenched within the exercise that com-
manders are not confronted with realistic logistical issues
that may dramatically affect operational decisions during
actual war (Eccles, 1959:300). Fortunately, exercise real-
2-7
ism is becoming an increasingly important concern for our
senior leadership. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have issued a
mandate to all Services requiring they develop improved
procedures to eliminate needless exercise artificialities
and improve realism (Hall and Miller, 1990:33).
Wise use of simulations, though, allow an exercise to
challenge the commander's war fighting capability without
requiring his wartime resources to be in place. This is
often the case with command post exercises.
Command Post Exercises
Command post exercises are designed to test wartime
procedures while simulating the existence and movement of
combat forces. As Maj Gregg T. Perry ex-plains.in his ar-
ticle "Limitations of JCS Exercises,*:
CPXs tend to be manpower intensive both inplanning and in execution. Some unique limita-tions of CPXs include scenario script dependency,where the exercise is tightly controlled by a setsequence of events. Heavily scripted CPXs occurbecause planners must create situations that drivethe players to exercise the procedures which willaccomplish specific objectives. CPXs are alsolimited by level of play constraints. By design,these exercises test the planning and command-control procedures to include our highest levelsof government. Often, this means the level of playwill include the National Command Authorities (thePresident and Secretary of Defense), the JointChiefs of Staff, and/or the Unified commanders.Exercise play at this level of government takes alot of time and often requires high level de-cisions which affect the play of lower level par-ticipants. Additionally, real world commitmentsmay keep the same high level players from part-
2-8
icipating in the exercises, further degrading
realism. (Perry, 1987:8-9)
The direction a CPX can take in a military exercise can
be broken down into two schools of thought. Capt Russ Hall
and Lt Col Phillip Miller report that one school maintains
CPXs should be 'procedural-only" exercises; meaning, only
limited and highly controlled elements of realism are al-
lowed as part of the exercise. The reported benefit of this
method is the control exercise planners maintain in deter-
mining exercise outcome, and in maintaining a degree of
latitude in determining what activities will be exercised.
The second school of thought maintains that CPXs should
embody as much realism as possible without exceeding the
limitations and objectives of the exercise. Hall and Miller
note both groups do agree that logistics realism must be
improved in CPXs. (Hall and Miller, 1990:33)
The purposes of a CPX, to include exercise realism,
often vary. Generally though, a CPX should provide a train-
ing ground that incorporates the disciplines of strategy,
tactics, and logistics together into an integrated whole
(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 6). There is often a tradeoff between
]rijtij ~realism, and achieving the goals of the exercise.
Realism is often lost and the purpose is undermined because
the wrong players are used, or over-simplified logistic
2-9
inputs are used, or we fail to follow through on logistical
limiting factors (Hagel, 1989:Ch 1, 5;Ch 6, 7-8).
These limitations can be overcome. Maj Gregg T. Perry
also states that "CPX limitations can be overcome by effec-
tive, realistic scenario planning, and staff involvement at
all levels (Perry, 1987:9). Another article on the subject,
by Maj James D. Gorby says " real world data should be
used (when security permits) to reflect actual logistics
capabilities and shortfalls (Gorby, 1980:24-30)." Several
logistics officers at Air Command and Staff College in 1979
said it was normal during exercises to *'assume the equip-
ment is available and ready.' Consequently, the only thing
learned during the exercises was how to fill out reports and
use the message center (Gorby, 1980:25).' Though this
example is somewhat dated, these same types of assumptions
continue to exist in many of our military exercises today.
Maj Steven J. Hagel suggests in his Thesis, Realism in Exer-
cises, that we can improve realism by:
1. Having more involvement by our senior levelleadership.
2. Using the actual players during the exerciseinstead of substitutes.
3. Extending the time of the exercise.
4. Conducting more intensive logistic exercises.(Hagel, 1989:Ch 6, 4)
2-10
Mj Hagel also suggests the Air Force can improve
logistics realism in CPXs by using improved mathematical
simulation modeling or realistic databases (Hagel, 1989:-
Ch 6, 4).
Several approaches, according to Capt Hall, have been
taken to improve CPX reality. An antiquated method for
handling aircraft activity used Pareto's principle (the
80/20 rule) (See Stock and Lambert, 1987:419). This method
assumed a percentage of the aircraft" returned in mission
capable condition; the aircraft simply refueled, rearmed and
was ready for another mission. The remaining aircraft
landed needing repair. This method didn't always identify
which system(s) on the aircraft required repair or what
parts would be needed to fix the system(s) (Hall, 1989:-
Ch 2, 9).
Mathematical simulation modeling, currently in use
throughout the Air Force, improves realism considerably.
Mathematical modeling, as Capt Hall reports, uses peacetime
repair and failure data to determine aircraft availability,
aircraft landing status, discrepancy repair times, and
repair parts. This method can be expanded to include other
logistical activities such as petroleum, oil, lubricant
(POL) , and munitions requirements (Hall, 1989:Ch 2, 9-10).
A relatively new method, historical databasing, uses
near wartime data to manage aircraft availability, determine
2-11
aircraft landing status, repair parts needed, and time to
repair the aircraft. This method relies on near war-like
data in place of peacetime repair and failure rates because
of the significant differences that exist with system fail-
ures under combat conditions. As reported by Capt Hall,
components with high failure rates during peacetime may fail
infrequently, if at all, under combat conditions. Likewise,
components that fail infrequently during peacetime may fail
frequently under combat flying conditions (Hall, 1989:Ch 2,
9-10).
Hall and Miller report that this approach forestalls
the question of internal or external validity because actual
aircraft discrepancies and parts requirements are derived
from near war-like conditions and used in a relatively unal-
tered state (Hall and Miller, 1990:34).
Hall and Miller also report that several benefits exist
that are associated with the use of historical databasing.
First, the database is reflective of the real world, and as
such, many of the complex real world influences are ac-
counted for automatically. Second, performance, re-
liability, and maintainability of aircraft systems are
reflected within the database. Third, specific supply anI
maintenance information is readily available for the user
i.e. NSNs, Noun, WUCs, quantity on order, repair times, and
discrepancies. Fourth, the database is easily developed and
2-12
can be easily modified. Fifth, the database is based on
real events, and as such, is easily accepted and used.
Sixth, the database is not dependent on computer support for
use; therefore, it is quite useful at any forward operating
location. Finally, from an exercise planner's point of
view, the results from the database can be foreseen. This
allows proponents of the procedural-only CPXs to maintain
control and anticipate possible logistical shortfalls that
may result from the use of the database. (Hall and Miller,
1990:35)
Summary
Military exercises play a crucial role in maintaining
strong readiness. They allow us to prepare for war during
peacetime. Exercises should be used as an unbiased tool to
improve ou. warfighting capability. In preparing exercises
we should look closely at the interrelationship between
logistics, strategy, and tactics, in order to match combat
capability with sound operational principles. Operators and
logisticians need to fully understand the principles by
which each other operates, and should try to integrate these
principles when planning military exercises. Realism must
be an integral part of these exercises so that commanders
can develop their warfighting skills under war-like con-
ditions. Realistic millitary exercises should be designed to
2-13
develop the character, intellect, and leadership our com-
manders will need to be successful in warfare. Logistics
realism at the CPX level must echo these desireable con-
ditions. Though heavily laden with simulation, wise use of
limiting factors can help overcome the undesirable con-
sequences of simulation with effective, realistic scenario
planning, and strong staff involvement. Continued improve-
ments with historical databasing and mathematical modeling
techniques should continue to improve realism at the command
post exercise level.
Chapter III will discuss the methodology used through-
out this research effort.
2-14
III. Methodology
Overview
The method outlined in Table 1 will be used to achieve
the objective of this thesis. The steps outlined in the
table will follow the basic methodology used during the
development of the B-52G database model (Hall, 1989:-
Ch 3, 1).
TABLE 1
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1. Collect data
a) Procure ETTF ELF-i mission data
b) Verify useability of data
2. Develop KC-135A/E/R database model
a) Develop database reference tables
b) Develop practice database referencetables for use with the information guide
3. Develop information guide
4. Develop database evaluation surveys
5. Test KC-135A/E/R database model
6. Conduct field evaluations, observations,and interviews
7. Analyze results
3-1
A discussion of the research methodology follows. It
will examine the procedure to be used to complete each step
of the methodology as outlined in Table 1. For the sake of
clarity, steps 4 and 6 will be combined under the sub-head-
ing *Developing and Conducting the Evaluation.'
Data Collection
Data collection will involve a two-step process. The
first ste; involves finding an adequate source for the raw
data needt-d to build the database model. To provide as much
realism as possible, the data used to develop the KC-135-
A'E'R database model should come from a unit whose flying
mivsion closely replicates expected wartime missions. ELF 1
mission daca data collected dui.:ng support of Saudi Arabian
E3 aircraft) from European Tanker Task Force (ETTF) should
meet this requirement and is targeted for use in developing
the database model.
The second step involves performing verification analy-
sis of the data to determine its usability. The intent here
is to insure the data provides the necessary information
needed to develop the database model, and to insure the data
accurately reflects realistic maintenance conditions.
During the procurement process, the researcher will
screen all source data to ensure that it provides sufficient
information, and in sufficient quantity, to develop the
database model. The source data should include the follow-
3-2
ing items: aircraft maintenance landifig code, in-flight
discrepancies, quantity ordered, work unit code, job control
number, national stock number, and nomenclature for the
part(s) ordered. To ensure data accuracy, weapon system
experts will be used to validate the data.
KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development
Development of the KC-135A/E/R database model will in-
volve the merging of maintenance and supply data elements as
depicted in Figure 1.
Maintenance elements Supply Elements
- Aircraft maintenance - National stock numberlanding code - Nomenclature
- Inflight discrepancy - Work unit code- Quantity ordered- Work unit code- Job control number
KC-135A/E/R Database Model
Figure 1. KC-135A/E/R Database ModelSource Data Input
3-3
The work unit code (WUC) will be used as the key field
to link elements of the maintenance and supply databases.
The researcher will link the two databases by developing a
software program that matches the necessary supp]y data with
the appropriate maintenance data using WRSK listings sup-
plied by SAC headquarters.
A condensed version of the KC-135A/E/R database model
will also be developed for training purposes, and will be
used with the information guide. The condensed database
will simply be a collection of events taken from the
KC-135A/E/R database model.
Information Guide Development
Th( informati,0,n guide will be a modification of an
existing guide developed to support the B-52G Aircraft
Maintenance Database Model (Hall, 1989:Ap B). The purpose
of the information guide is to provide a standardized method
to train and/or familiarize response cell personnel with
procedures on how to manage aircraft activities, as well as
procedures on how to use the database model during a CPX.
Modifications to the information guide will include adjust-
ments for the KC-135 contingency phase inspection, and
mudification of the time required to perform preflight/thru-
flight inspections.
The InformAt1on guide will consist of detailed, step by
st.ep procediires to hande ',the following items:
,3-4 ,
1. Aircraft inspections:
a. Phase inspectionsb. Hourly postflight inspections (HPO)c. Preflight/thruflight inspections
2. Supply requirements:
a. Validating WRSK listingsb. Parts orderingc. Cannibalizationd. Mission Capability (MICAP) itemse. Minimum Essential Systems List (MESL) items
3. Documenting exercise forms:
a. Initial forms set up (STARTEX)b. Using the database
4. Handling special cases:
a. Accounting for aircraft attritionb. Additional/replacement aircraft(Hall, 1989:Ch 3, 3-4)
Developing and Conducting the Evaluation
A written response survey, interviews and observations
will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the KC-135-
A/E/R database model. The researcher will modify an exist-
ing survey (Hall, 1989:Ap D) and develop further questions
for use during the evaluation phase of the research. CPX
response cell members will be evaluated using the survey to
test the hypothesis that there is an improved difference in
logistics realism between the KC-135A/E/R database model and
other mathematical models in use today.
The survey will employ the use of a Likert scale as a
means of quantifying responses (See Emory, 1985:255). The
3-5
reliability of the survey instrument will be tested using
the Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha technique (See Emory,
1985:100). The content validity of the survey instrument
will rely on expert opinion to ensure questions are develo-
ped that adequately cover the usefulness of the model and
its associated training material (See Emory, 1985:95).
The interview will be used primarily to improve the
quality of evaluation information by adding to, and clarify-
ing information gathered during the surveying procedure.
The interview will focus on capturing the concerns and
suggestions response cell personnel may have with using the
KC-135A/E/R database model and information guide. The
interview method will employ face-to-face interview tech-
niques, with responses recorded in writing (See Emory,
1985:160-169, 178-183).
Observations will be used by the researcher to view
first hand how effective the response cell personnel are in
using the KC-135A/E/R database model. The observations will
be inferential, and variables will be judged qualitatively.
Variables for the observation will concentrate on the degree
of usefulness each model provides their respective response
cell personnel. The researcher shall focus his attention on
evaluating several characteristics of the model to include
training, ease of use, accuracy, and supportability.
3-6
These particular characteristics of the model have been
singled olit for several reasons. The model must be easy to
use and simple to understand. During CPXs little time is
provided for training. The response cell personnel general-
ly must take it upon themselves to learn the system they
will use during the exercise. If the system is overly
complicated, it can lead to confusion, poor performance by
response cell members, and inaccurate information pitssed to
decision makers. Consequently, a database model that is
easily understood and used, is critical in order to be an
effective and reliable tool. The data provided by the model
must also be accurate. If not, the credibility of the model
is questioned leading to demotivation by the users, and
inaccurate information passed up the chain of command.
Finally, the model must be supportable, meaning that it must
provide the necessary information needed to accurately tasck
the supply system under realistic conditions.
Test KC-135A/E/R Database Model
The K(C-135A/E/R database model will be tested during
the 1990 Crested Eagle CPX. The exercise will provide the
means by which the model's usefulness can be validIted. A
static group design will be used as the experimental design
for the test. Such a design anvoles administerin, the
dit-'bacn: the CPX and making- compariso~ns between
respon.e cells using the Kr-I35A/E/R Database Model and a
3-7
control group of response cells not using the database
model. Comparative analysis will then focus on evatuation
survey responses from response cell members who have ex-
perience in using both the KC-135A/E/R database model and
other mathematical models during CPXs. A separate analysis,
through survey evaluations, will also be conducted on re-
sponse cell members that have used only the KC-135A/E/R
database model. Specific analysis procedures will be dis-
cussed next.
Analysis of Findings and Results
An extenzive analysis of the survey evaluations wil1 be
conducted comparing the two samples of response cell person-
nel. The first population will include those pers,.,nnel wit-h
exper[ence in u.sings both the KC-13iA/E/R d ,aboase model and
other mat.hematival models. A staListical analysis of survey
oz;ai,.,arons, will be conducted using a stude.ntized pai e-d
T-test to determine if themre ig a difference in logistics
realism between the KC-135A/E/R database model and the
mathematical model. The second population will include
those response cell personnel who have experience in using
just the KC-135A/E/R database model. Here a statistical
analysis of the survey evaluations will be conducted using
the Friedman's non-parametric two way analysis of variance
(ANOVA) procedure to determine if there is a significant
difference of opi.nion among users concernin d the usefulness
3-8
of the KC-135A/E/R database model. A non-parametric pro-
cedure should be used if the data variability for the col-
lected data is not equal. Equal variance is a necessary
assumption for use of Parametric ANOVA procedures. The
Friedman procedure will be used, rather than the Kruskal
Waflis procedure, to reduce data variability by blocking the
data by the individual questions from the evaluation survey.
This process will reduce the within variability of the data
thereby increasing the F statistic. Consequently, differ-
ences of opinion among respondents will be amplified.
Summary
The research methodology provide5 a sequential set of
steps the researcher will use to progress through the re-
search. Chapter IV will outline the results found from this
effort.
3-9
IV. Results, Findings, and Analysis
Overview
The methodology outlined in Chapter III was used as a
guide for data collection, development of the database
model, development of the information guide, and development
of the evaluation surveys. Modification, however, had to be
made for testing the database model and conducting field
evaluations because of the cancellation of the 1990 Crested
Eagle CPX.
A suitable alternate CPX was not available to test the
-database model within the time constraints of the research
project. Therefore, a mock exercise was conducted to test
the database model using volunteer graduate students from
the Air Force Institute of Technology's School of Systems
and Logistics. A survey was administered following the
termination of the mock exercise to evaluate the database,
= and information guide. Details of the procedure used; and
results, findings, and analysis, will be presented under the
headings *Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model,' and
*Evaluations, Observations, and Interviews' later in this
chapter.
The results of the methodology will be presented in the
same sequence of events as outlined in Table 1 of Chapter
III. Data collection will first be discussed followed by
development of the database model, development of the infor-
4-1
mation guide, development of the evaluation surveys, testing
of the database model, evaluation of the database model, and
finally, an analysis of the evaluation results.
Data Collection
Data collection was accomplished through a two step
process. The first step involved locating an adequate
source of data that met the requirements for the database
model. Once found, the second step involved validating the
data to ensure it provided the realism and accuracy neces-
sary for use in the database model. The detailed expla-
nation of each step will be discussed next.
ELF-i ETTF mission data (data collected during Saudi
Arabian E3 aircraft Tanker Task Force support) was initially
targeted for use as source data for the database model. The
use of ELF-1 mission data would provide an element of real-
ism that depicted war-like flying conditions that could
easily be incorporated into the database model. However,
necessary supply data was not available and an alternate
source of data had to be found. The next best available
source data that depicted war-like flying conditions was
that of routine ETTF flying missions. With ETTF mission
data, both the maintenance and supply data elements were
available and in sufficient quantity to build +.he database
model. Consequently, the ETTF mission data was chosen by
4-2
SAC/LGL and this researcher as source data for the KC-135-
A/E/R database model.
The source data Included the following maintenance and
supply database elements (among others):
1. Aircraft/System Maintenance Landing Code
2. Inflight Discrepancies
3. Maintenance Repair Times
4. Repair Parts by:
a. Work Unit Code (WUC)
b. Quantity Ordered
The source data did not include associated NSN and Nomen-
clature (Noun) supply data elements for each required part.
However, the remaining supply data elements could be ex-
tracted from WRSK listings, the VAMOSC (Visibility in Man-
agement of Operating and Support Cost) computer generated
support system, as well as through manual research.
The source data was provided by the llth Strategic
Group at RAF Fairford, UK. The data was generated using the
PCN SGO54-35A Maintenance History Report for on-equipment
maintenance, and covers five months of maintenance activity
starting 1 June 1989 and ending 31 October 1989.
The source data was initially screened by the re-
searcher and two senior NCOs from the 7th Organizational
Maintenance Squadron's Tanker Branch at Carswell AFB to
ensure the data was realistic and accurate. Cross checks
4-3
were performed randomly to verify that the elements reported
in each data field matched the reported maintenance dis-
crepancy. Approximately 30 percent of the database was
checked in this manner. Less than five percent of the
discrepancies checked contained error. Most of the errors
resulted from technicians failing to record the proper WUC
for the specific component; most of these errors were ac-
curate to the first three places of the WUC. Consequently,
the researcher concluded the source data provided a strong
degree of realism and accuracy, and the development of the
database model commenced.
KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development
Full Version.
A primary objective of this research effort was to
develop a database model that provides information in a
realistic form that can be useful to CPX response cell
personnel. To be successful, the database model must take
the input data from ETTF missions, along with associated
supply data, and provide output data for the database model
that will ensure full realism was preserved.
To develop the database model, source data elements had
to be merged with NSNs to make the database model complete.
A six step process was used to fully develop the model.
The first step involved developing a format for the
database model, and selecting a software package to support
4-4
it. To maintain consistency and standardization, a format
duplicating that of the B-52G Historical Database Model was
used. By maintaining a high degree of consistency and
standardization, response cell personnel familiar with one
historical database model can easily transition to another
model with little or no difficulty resulting from the format
of the database model. With the format set, a spreadsheet
software, QUATTRO version 1.2, was selected. This par-
ticular software package was selected primarily because of
its ease of use, and availability.
In step two of the development .process, maintenance and
supply elements from the source data were manually extracted
from the Maintenance History Report and placed in a QUATTRO
data file. The elements extracted for the maintenance
history report included:
1. Aircraft/System Maintenance Landing Code
2. Inflight Discrepancies
3. Maintenance Repair Times
4. Repair Parts by:
a. WUC
b. Quantity Ordered
Once complete, the NSN had to be linked with the associated
WUC from the maintenance history report and placed in the
QUATTRO data file.
4-5
Step three involved performing the linking process.
This process turned out to be rather long and laborious. A
portion of the required linking was accomplished using WRSK
data files supplied by HQ SAC/LGSMO. WUCs were extracted
from the QUATTRO data file and placed in a DBASE III+ file
along with the WRSK data. A DBASE III+ program was written
to search the WR JK data for a matching WUC and link the WUC
to the NSN. Once complete, the new file was imported back
into the QUATTRO data file,
Not all WUCs could be linked using this process though.
A computer software support sys-tem called VAMOSC was used to
link 70 WUCs with NSNs. The VAMOSC system is a support
system under the control of HQ AFLCs Cost Accounting Direc-
torate (AFLC/ACC). Though used for cost accounting pur-
poses, the VAMOSC system has the capability of cross refer-
encing a WUC for the KC-135 aircraft with its associated NSN
and Noun.
Even after using the VAMOSC system, 17 additional WUCs
had to be manualLy researched. Once the research was com-
plete, the collected WUCs and matching NSNs from both the
VAMOSC system and through manual research were entered into
the QUATTRO data file.
Step four involved the simple process of assigning
maintenance event control numbers to the database elements
in the data file. The database elements associated with an
4-6
individual sortie were grouped together and a maintenance
event control number was assigned to identify each sortie.
Step five in the final preparation of the database
model development involved the deletion of unnecessary
records from the data file. The only records deleted from
the data file were those that did not contribute to the
purpose of the database design. These records were clas-
sified as insignificant, minor discrepancies, requiring no
parts, and that did not impair or degrade from the mission
of the aircraft.
The final step for the development of the database
model development involved identifying the overall fix time
for a sortie having a Code 3 discrepancy and placing an
asterisk in the adjacent LNDG CODE column. With this final
step to the data file finished, the database model was ready
for testing.
The completed KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logis-
tics Database is located in Appendix A. The columns of the
database, as defined by Capt Hall, follows:
Maintenance Event Control Number - The control numberis used to identify a *maintenance event'for a particular aircraft on the CPX MXWorksheets 1 and 2. A maintenance eventincludes all the lines of discrepancies inthe database associated with an aircraft
4-7
landing from a sortie. It also provides ameans of record keeping for later analy-sis.
Acft T.N. - The aircraft tail number to which themaintenance event is assigned is enteredin this column (by the user).
Lndg Code - Identifies the maintenance condition of anaircraft returning from a mission.
Code 1: Aircraft/system(s) fully oper-ational. Aircraft is landing with noknown discrepancies which would adverselyaffect performance of the aircraft/sys-tem(s).
Code 2: Aircraft/system(s) having minordiscrepancies which may affect operatingperformance but will generally not pre-clude the aircraft from flying anothermission prior to repair.
Code 3: Aircraft/system(s) having dis-crepancies which render the aircraftand/or system(s) unusable. Generally,aircraft are not flown until Code Z dis-crepancies are repaired.
Fix Time - The time needed t-o repair a discrepancylisted in the database. The times listeddo not include normal refuel, phase, HPO,preflight/thruflight or inspections.
(Time in hours to the nearest tenth). Theoverall aircraft fix time is identified byan asterisk in the Lndg Code column whenan aircraft has Code 3 discrepancies.
NSN - The national stock number (NSN) of theneeded repair parts.
Noun - The nomenclature of the needed repairpart.
WUC - The work unit Code (WUC) identifies amajor repair part, system or subsystem.
Qty - Quantity of repair part(s), if needed.
4-8
In WRSK - For the user to identify if the repairpart is available in the WRSK (Yes/No).
MESL - For the user to identify whether theaffected system is on the minimum essen-tial systems list (MESL) in AFR 65-110,SAC Supplement 1, if the part is not on-hand (Yes/No).
Msg DTG - For the user to record the date-time-group of the message requesting a part notavailable in the WRSK.
Remarks - To provide a short, general description ofthe discrepancy associated with eachrecord. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 9-11)
The database model incorporates a high degree of inter-
nal and external validity. Capt Hall's elaboration of the
inherent validity strengths of historical database models
are fully supported by ahd incorporated into this database
model. He argues that the method used to develop historical
database models forestalls any question of either internal
or external validity because actual aircraft discrepancies
and part requirements are used in a relatively unaltered
state. The historical database model uses data from actual
aircraft flying missions. Additionally, internal validity
can be confirmed by ensuring exact one to one relationships
as database fields are joined and through follow-up verifi-
cation checks of all fields within each record in the data-
base. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 12)
4-9
Practice Database.
A condensed version of the database model was developed
for use with the information guide solely for training pur-
poses. Once the full version was complete, a practice data-
base was built by extracting a small number of maintenance
events and placing them together in a separate database
file. The maintenance events selected present a broad
variation of discrepancies to response cell personnel during
their pre-exercise training session. This will allow en-
hanced training by providing response cell personnel an
opportunity to view the data before hand, so that questions
concerning the database model may be asked. The Practice
Database is located in Appendix C.
A set of training slides have also been developed to
enhance the training process. Some of the sl-ides were
duplicated from the B-52G Historical Aircraft Maintenance
Database Model and modified to support the KC-135A/E/R
Database (See Hall, 1989:Ap F). The training slides are
located in Appendix F.
Information Guide
An information guide is needed as documentation to
provide clear and concise procedures and training on how to
manage aircraft activities, and how to use the database
model.
4-10
The information guide is a replication of the one used
with the B-52G Aircraft Maintenance Database Model (See
Hall, 1989:Ap B). Modifications to the content have been
made to accommodate the KC-135A/E/R aircraft. These modifi-
cations include adjustments for the KC-135 contingency phase
inspection, and modification of the preflight/thruflight
inspection time requirement.
The information guide is designed to provide the user
with a set of practical requirements in a set of procedures
that are easily understood, and in a format that allows
quick access to the information. The guide is also arranged
in an order that coincides with expected pre-exercise train-
ing sessions.
The procedures outlined in the information guide are
based on current aircraft maintenance requirements, and
current supply procedures as directed by SAC regulation and
appropriate technical data (as of this writing). The spe-
cific procedures cover the following areas:
1. Aircraft inspections:
a. The purpose, frequency, and how to handle thephase inspections.
b. The purpose, frequency, and how to handle thehourly postflight (HPO) inspections.
c. Accounting for aircraft preflight/thruflightinspections.
2. Aircraft parts requirements:
a. Checking the WRSK listing for available parts.b. Ordering of parts.
4-11
I
c. Interpreting the Minimum Essential System List(MESL) in AFR 65-110, SAC Supplement 1.
d. Handling cannibalization of MICAP parts.
3. Documentation of exercise forms:
a. Initial setup of forms at the start of theexercise (STARTEX).
b. Extracting maintenance events from the data-base and plotting the data.
4. Handling special cases:
a. Dealing with late takeoffs, maintenance can-cellations.
b. Accounting for ground or airborne attrition ofaircraft.
c. Incorporating additional/replacement aircraftin the flow of events.
d. Handling of aircraft diverted from other loca-tions. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 12-13)
The completed KC-135A/E/R Database Model Information
Guide is located in Appendix B.
Evaluation Survey Development
Two written response surveys were used to evaluate the
effectiveness of the KC-135A/E/R database model. The sur-
veys were designed to test the hypothesis that the KC-135-
A/E/R database model improves logistics realism in CPXs, and
that the database model is easy to use.
Two survey instruments were needed to accommodate the
two population groups to be sampled (See Appendix E). The
first evaluation survey, titled "KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Main-
tenance Logistics Database Evaluation, Evaluation Survey l,"
was administered to all personnel participating in the mock
exercise. With this group, the survey instrument was de-
4-12
signed to allow comparisons of opinion among respondents
with respect to the test hypothesis. That is, the results
would help answer the question *does the database model
provide realistic logistical information to the response
cell member?. With the sample population having no pre-
vious CPX experience, they are not capable of making a
judgement on whether the database model improves realism
over existing models currently in use. Therefore, a second
survey instrument, titled "Evaluation 2, Previous Experience
in CPX," was needed to evaluate those personnel who have had
previous experience as a response cell member so that a
comparison of improved realism can be made between the
database model and other models currently in use.
Both evaluation surveys were developed using a five
-point Likert scale to quantify responses. Three constructs
were used as a basis for develoning questions in the sur-
veys. The first construct asked questions to determine if
the database model is realistic. Questions 1 and 5 in the
first evaluation survey, and questions 1 and 4 in the second
evaluation survey were used in support of the first con-
struct. The second construct asked questions to determine
if the database model was easy to use. Questions 2, 3, 4,
6, and 7, of Evaluation Survey 1, and questions 2, 3, 5, 6,
and 7 of Evaluation Survey 2 were used in support of the
second construct. The third construct asked questions to
determine the usefulness of the information guide. Ques-
4-13
tions 9 and 10 of the first survey, and question 8 of the
second survey were used in support of the third construct.
Many of the questions used in both surveys were modi-
fied from an existing survey used to evaluate the B-52G
database model. The B-52G survey was used because it pro-
vided .a fairly high measure of consistency in its ability to
measure the usefulness of the B-52G Database Model. To make
this claim, a test of the B-52G evaluation survey's reliab-
ility was conducted by this researcher to determine its
internal consistency. A Cronbach's coefficient alpha of
.7985 was computed using the SPSS-X mainframe statistical
software package. Based on these findings, the researcher
concluded the B-52G Model's evaluation survey provided a
fair degree of internal consistency and would therefore be a
useful guide toward the development of the two evaluation
surveys for this research effort.
Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model
The KC-135A/E/R Database Model was tested during a mock
exercise held at the Air Force Institute of Technology's
School of Systems and Logistics on 20 April 1990. Its
purpose was to validate the model's usefulness by deter-
mining if the model met the objectives of this research
effort; namely, to provide improved logistical realism for
response cell members during a CPX.
In validating the model, three specific constructs were
tested. First and foremost, the element of realism was
4-14
tested. Realistic tasking orders were used by each response
cell team to launch, recover, and maintain their fleet of
aircraft throughout the exercise. Second, ease of use of
the database, CPX maintenance worksheets, and information
guide were tested. A highly compressed time line was used
to artificially induce time constraints on the response cell
team members during the exercise. If the database and its
associated material were difficult to use, this would be
amplified under an artificially induced time constraint.
Finally, the need for minimal training was tested. Each
team was provided a copy of the Information Guide to read
four da7s prior to the beginning of the exercise. Addition-
ally, a one hour training session was provided just prior to
the start of the exercise to ensure each member was somewhat
familiar with their responsibilities. The need for minimal
training is considered critical to the success of the model.
Typically, only minimal training is provided to response
cell personnel prior to accomplishing their duties as a
response cell member. The model and its associated documen-
tation should provide enough information, as stand alone
documents, so response cell members can understand and use
the database model effectively during an exercise.
4-15
Composition of the Mock Exercise.
A total of thirteen Officers from the School of Systems
and Logistics volunteered to participate as response cell
members during the mock exercise. Each, from their respec-
tive backgrounds, provided a unique perspective to the
exercise. The thirteen volunteers consisted of one rated
navigator, two logistics planners and ten aircraft main-
tenance officers.
The mock exercise was composed of five teams each cc,.
taining two or three personnel. Each team was assigned
either 7, 9, 11, 13, or 15 aircraft a- the primary number of
aircraft assigned (FAA) under their control. Each aircraft
was assigned fabricated tail numbers and total airframe
flying hours. Each team was assigned a specific set of
maintenance event control numbers (from the database) for
use during the exercise. This 'would allow the team members
to collectively sample a broader portion of the database
model during the exercise than would otherwise be sampled if
they had all started from the same point. Additionally,
teams 1 and 2 used the WRSK listing designed to support a
deployment of 10 aircraft, while teams 3, 4 and 5 used the
WRSK listing supporting a deployment of 15 aircraft.
The exercise covered a 48 hour period of time com-
pressed into four hours of actual exercise play. Each team
received two tasking orders during the exercise (See Appen-
dix G) . The tasking orders were designed to realistically
4-16
reflect demands placed on a response cell during a CPX.
Finally, the researcher acted as the exercise coordinator
and exercise controller. He determined when necessary
mission capable (MICAP) parts and routine refill of the WRSK
were received. His purpose was to duplicate the commun-
icatiorn and coordination processes that would typically
exist between the regional Logistic Readiness Center (LRC)
and the response cells.
Table 2 provides a synopsis of specific team com-
position and assignments used throughout the exercise.
TABLE 2
MOCK EXERCISE TEAM COMPOSITION AND ASSIGNMENTS
# of Primary Maint. Event WRSKPersonnel Aircraft Control # liston Team Assigned Used Used
Team 1 2 7 300 - 359 10
Team 2 2 9 225 - 299 10
Team 3 3 11 150 - 224 15
Team 4 3 13 075 - 149 15
Team 5 3 15 001 - 074 15
Worksheets were used by each team to track their pro-
gress through the exercise. The worksheets are the same as
4-17
those developed by Capt Hall for the B-52G Database Model
(See Hall, 1989:Ap E), and are located in Appendix D.
The objective for each team was to maintain their fleet
of aircraft in the highest state of readiness possible while
fulfilling the tasking orders levied upon them by CPX head-
quarters.
Evaluation Survey 1 Results.
At the completion of the mock exercise each participant
completed the KC-135 Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Database
Evaluation (Evaluation Survey 1). Those personnel who, at
some previous time in their career, had participated as a
CPX response cell member also completed a second Evaluation
Survey (Evaluation Survey 2) (See Appendix E).
The results of.Evaluation Survey 1 will be presented
first. Each question will be listed along with summary
statistics and associated comments made by each respondent.
1.---- The database helped make exercise play in theresponse cell more realistic.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 45
IK ADEFG BL Cif J M
Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean 2.15 Dev .80
4-18
Why or how?
A. (no comment)
B. *I really don't have anything to comparewith.*
C, "Everything was Code 2 and used parts only
once.
D. "Having realistic MX breaks to fix times lends
credibility."
E. "Actual maintenance discrepancies easy to re-late to real world.*
F. "Conditions realistic, especially parts avail-
ability.*
G. "We need a scenario to go by."
H. *Knowing the status of the acft on landingallowed some gaming prior to filling line.'
I. *Provided factual times for maint. actionsthat made you take the required amount oftime to complete. It doesn't allow you tocheat.*
J. "Good format for depicting NX and supplyevents.'
K. "Provided the core for maintenance involve-ment."
L. *Because I have no experience with tankers Idon't have any feeling for how realistic thedatabase really was."
M. (no comment)
4-19
2. ------- The database makes it easy to get theinformation I need to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
AFGIJ BCDH EKL
Total StdrdResponses 12 Mean = 1.50 Dev = .67
Why or how?
A. *You have real world info instead of simulated
times.'
B. (no comment)
C. "It's unknown as to whether supply support wasrealistically tasked.'
D. (no comment)
E. *Nothing to compare it with.*
F. *All needed info available.*
G. (no comment)
H. 'Everything important to the exercise wasreadily available.
I. All actions had easily understood times thatwere readily available.'
J. "MX hours well depicted.'
K. *You might add blank lines where inputs shouldbe written in the database (tail number).*
L. "Exceptionally easy to use. I originallythought the time compression would be a reallimiting factor. In the end we could havehandled 2-3 times our tasking (9 PAA) .
4-20
M. (Participant did not respond to this question)
3. The database makes it easy to get the infor-mation I need to determine the availability ofeach aircraft.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
BFGIJ ADHILM E CK
Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean 1.92 Dev = 1.26
Why or how?
A. "Once you place a maint. event control numberwith an aircraft you can better determine itsavailability.'
B. *I can quickly determine availability.*
C. "All the necessary info was given to develop aflow schedule.'
D. (no comment)
E. "This info comes from the CPX worksheets."
F. *Database with background knowledge made thistask easy.*
G. (no comment)
H. (no comment)
I. "Condition codes of aircraft and the dis-crepancies were clear enough to determine ifthe acft was able to make its mission.*
4-21
J. *By identifying type (Code) of discrepancy and
mean maintenance time (MMT)."
K. *Clearly specified.'
L. *My lack of tanker experience made me guess ona few aircraft availability times, but ingeneral, if this were a fighter database theinfo would have been more than sufficient andmy answer would be a 'Strongly Agree'.*
M. (no comment)
4. The database makes it easy for me to determinewhat repair parts I need when an aircraftlands.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree -Tead to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
ABDEFGH CIJKLM
Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 1.15 Dev = .55
Why or how?
A. 'We had the parts actually used to fix theaircraft.'
B. *The MECN made it quite clear what parts wererequired.'
C. (no comment)
D. *Specific description of problems.*
E. 'The info is readily available."
F. "ure, the MDC would increase ava i1abi1ity ofparts.'
G. (no comment)
4-22
H. (no comment)
I. *Yes, it tells me exactly what part I need.'
J. 'Very realistic. All the input data is
there.*
K. 'Clearly specified.*
L. "Very easy to use, almost instant under-standing of the format.*
M. "NSNs provided.'
5. Having the discrepancy associated with a givenpart requirement helped make the demands morerealistic.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
ADJ KL BEFGH C MI
Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean = 1.77 Dev .73
Why or how?
A. (no comment)
B. (no comment)
C. 'It's unknown whether this is true becausecan't assess whether demands are realistic
for this aircraft.*
D. *Same as # 1 [Having realistic MX breaks tofix times lends credibility.].*
E. 'Shows the relation between the write-up andthe parts required.*
4-23
F. 'Tends to be more of a learning tool for those
that don't know."
G. (no comment)
H. 'In this scenario, the discrepancy was notreally a player.
I. (no comment)
J. *Having a part levied against the downtime, orvice versa, provides credibility.'
K. "Woitld help in judging the condition of theA/C.*
L. 'Absolutely - if I was provided the part re-quirement only, I would be providing a totalguess, the discrepancy is very helpful.'
M. (no comment)
6. Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a neededpart helped me locate the part in the WRSKlisting and more easily identify the item inmessage traffic.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
2 3 4 5
IL HK AG J BCDEFIM
Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 3.53 Dev 1.61
Why or how?
A. *The NOUN did not help in the WRSK listing-the WUC did, unless the part was not listedwith WUC - having th-? ability to sort the
4-24
WRSK listing by NSN would make parts mucheasier to find.'
B. *We still had to check every stock number.The WUC didn't match the stock number.*
C. "The WRSK list needs to be sequenced by NSN."
D. "NSN and WUC didn't help on this particularexercise because of tne WRSK listing format.'
E. "WUC didn't help at all with the WRSK. TheNOUN was not available in the WRSK listing.May have helped in messages.'
F. "NSN need to be ordered, nomenclature shouldbe included.*
G. -NOUN wasn't available in WRSK listing. Itwould have been helpful.'
H. -In this case, no. If listing were aligned inWUC order then yes - would recommend in NSNorder.*
I. *Would have if I used listing right. However,the proper way to.use the list needs to bestressed to those who will be using it.Also, the info needs to be sorted by WUC,NSN.
J. We didn't know that the WUC grouped every-thing together. An oversight on our part.*
K. Need to stress WUC as a way of finding theNSN. NSN or WUC need to be in sequential or-der.*
L. We searched the NOUN and WUC colurnns first.*
M. "We did not find any WUCs in the listing."
7. ......- Having the noun and Work unvit code associatedwith the national stock number for a neededpart helped me determine whether a part wasessential to fly a given mission and trackcannibalizations.
4-25
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
D E FGH AB C I J XL M
Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 3.08 Dev 1.04
Why or how9
A. "Never really came into play - used the WUC tocheck the MESL on two items."
B. *In our scenario we only needed one part, andit was a Code 2 write-up."
C. "Did not use the MESL."
D. "Helped re-late to the MESL."
E. 'Made checking the MESL easy having the NOUNthe WUC was used in tracking CANN parts."
F. *Background and MESL also helped."
G. "WUC was needed to cross reference to MESL.We tracked CANNs on CPX MX worksheet."
H. *Again, not in this case - but if a CANN logwere MX, then yes.'
I. "The NOUN and NSN don't tell me if the part iscritical."
J. "The landing code tells me if the part isimportant or not. We didn't have CANNs so itwas difficult to test this. Additionally, Ican't remember having seen the tracking ofCANNs in the book."
K. "Doesn't help track cannibalizations. WUC notoverly useful."
L. "Made no difference. Our decision on partessentialability had nothing to do with NOUN
4-26
and WUC availability. We did not accomplishany CANNs."
M. "Unfamiliar with the part redundancy withinthe aircraft."
8. ------- The CPX MX Worksheets along with the newsymbols and charting technique streamlined thetracking of each aircraft's flying and main-tenance requirements.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
A21 2 3 4 5
IJK ABDEG CFMHL
Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean 2.00 Dev = .71
Why or how?
A. "Easy to work with and understand. Trackingall the numbers make the sheets very clut-tered. Some symbol other than just "maint"would be useful for tracking maint."
B. "The symbols made it easier to track air-craft."
C. "I've never done this before so I can't saywhether it's an improvement or not."
D. "As long as it's standardized it really didn'tmatter much what the symbols were."
E. *Nothing to. compare with, but it did seem toflow smoothly after training familiar-ization."
F. "Another team member used CPX MX worksheets,he didn't seem to experience any problems.
4-27
G. "No method specified for CANNs. Had justenough room without tracking refuelingpoints.'
H. Everything important to the exercise was
readily available."
I. Was easy to understand and follow.'
J. *Gave a good standardized format. Needs tohave two horizontal lines per mission. '
K. *Standardized symbols helped. Should carry-over maintenance be included on the work-sheets?"
L. It was very easy to chart but I don't knowwhy we tracked ARCT and fuel loads.'
M. "I don't know how it was done before.*
9.-Working with the practice data base and othertraining materials adequately prepared me forusing the database during the exercise.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
2 3 4 5
GHL ABCDF EI J K M
Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean 1.92 Dev = .76
Why or how?
A. 'Helped me to quickly become familiar with
info."
B. 'The example prior to STARTEX was sufficient."
C. (no comment)
4-28
D. 'Gave me a feel for how all the documents fittogether.*
E. *Not enough time was available during trainingbut having some additional time at the begin-ning of STARTEX helped.*
F. 'Operations ran very smoothly, no problems.
G. (no comment)
H. (no comment)
I. *It gave me some practical experience.'
J. 'Practice makes perfect. Training on the restA of the MESL (or its importance) would have
even been fine.'
K. *We were rushed in our classroom training."
L. "Yes - the short training session and youravailability in the early exercise phase pro-vided excellent preparation.'
M. *It helped explain what I wasn't sure of byjust reading the book.*
10. ____-- The information guide helped me'understand myjob in the response cell and answered the ques-tions I had.
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly
agree agree or disagree disagree disagree
2 3 4 5
AHIJ BCFGK D EL M
Total StdrdResponses : 13 Mean = 2.00 Dev = 1.08
Why or how'
4-29
a. What information was not provided thatwould have been helpfu-
b. What information was provided that was notuseful or helpful?
A. "Well put together - contains the needed infofor completing the response cell require-ments."
B. "Along with the intro prior to STARTEX."
C. 'See comments in the Guide."
D. "I didn't get it in time to read it fully.'
E. "After thoroughly studying the guide (readthrough two or more times) it covered every-thing quite well,"
"Better description of how Code 2's could be
handled - parts use, cancelled maintenance.'
"Fuel loads and ARCT times were not used,"
F. "Briefing was more helpful."-
G. "Info on tracking Code 2s could have been morespecific."
'The ability to look ahead to determine land-ing codes before takeoff detracted from real-ism. Phase and HPO hours should be trackeddescending rather than ascending. A briefwrite-up on concept of maintenance for theairframe would have been helpful i.e. pre-flights immediately before flight instead ofon swings. Phase theory - hours versusdays."
H. (no comment)
I. "The 'NUTSHELLs' in the book were great'"
J. "The recaps (NUTSHELLs) were a valuable aiddur in the exercise.
4-30
K. 'The in a NUTSHELL sections were very useful.You might put them in an implementationchecklist or appendix.'
"Emphasis needs to be placed on not accomp-lishing tasks before possible. (i.e. followexercise times realistically.)'
L. "The guide and the training session preparedme adequately. Either tool standing alonewould not have been sufficient in the time wehad available.*
"I was confused on the concurrency of MXactions."
M. "It helped me (even though I only had limitedtime to review it prior to the exercise).*
"Parts list in NSN sequence.'
"WUC Codes."
"We should not have been given A/C statusuntil it returned. (possibly in a sealed en-velope)*
Evaluation Survey 1 provided a fairly high measure of
internal consistency in its ability to measure the useful-
ness of the KC-135 Database Model. A Cronbach's coefficient
alpha of .7561 was measured for Evaluation Survey 1.
Analysis of Findings and Results.
Non-statistical Analysis.
A non-statistical analysis of the research design, and
of the data collected, was performed to identify trends or
possible inconsistencies with the data that confuse, cause
4-31
disorder, or otherwise prevent a clear understanding of the
data results. The collected data must be as free as pos-
sible from confounds so that correct conclusions can be in-
ferred from its results. For this data set, confounds were
caused by the experimental design, to include the environ-
ment the test was conducted in, and by the personnel used in
testing of the database model.
An optimal environment to test the database model would
have been during an actual CPX where personnel, familiar
with the aircraft, would have been deployed at forward
operating locations. Though this environment would have
presented its own set of confounds, it would have provided a
truer picture of the database model's useability. This
should occur, primarily, because the environment for which
the database model is intended to be used would be in place,
along with personnel qualified to act as response cell
members.
Unfortunately, a CPX was not available for the testing
of the database model. The next best option available to
the researcher, in the time allotted for completion of the
research effort, was to conduct a 'Mock* exercise to test
the database model. This would be done by simulating a CPX
environment at AFIT using volunteer graduate students to run
the database model. On a scale of desirability, where a
4-32
test of the database model using a CPX would rate a top
score of 10, a mock exercise only rates a three.
A mock exercise is not as desireable as a CPX to test
the database model for several reasons. A large number of
artificially induced confounds exist with a mock exercise
that could adversely bias, taint, or skew the test results.
Duplication of the CPX environment is one such example.
The majority of the volunteers, as well as this researcher,
A have had no previous exposure to the CPX environment. It is
therefore difficult to capture those elements of purpose
that exist in a CPX where the mission, objectives, scope,
and overall limitations of the exercise are understood. To
reduce this. confound in the mock exercise, the researcher
conducted extensive informal interviews with several person-
nel knowledgeable of CPXs to gain an understanding of how a
CPX, at the response cell level, is conducted.
Another confound that can effect the data was the
amount of time the volunteers could devote to the mock
exercise. Due to the academic pressures of a full course
load plus thesis research, volunteers were only asked to
devotez half a day to this research effort. Therefore, the
researcher elected to compress 48 hours of actual CPX play
into four hours of mock exercise play. To reduce the pos-
sible effects of this confound, only essential exercise
inputs were given to the personnel so that their efforts
4-33
could remain focused on testing the database model during
the entire four hours of exercise play.
Still another confound that can effect the data results
revolve around the backgrounds of the volunteers. Three
considerations come into play here. First, a narrow point
of view with evaluating the database model may be present.
Ten of the 13 volunteers are aircraft maintenance officers.
Some may evaluate the database model from a purely main-
tenance point of view without regard for broader logistical
considerations the model can have in support of the overall
mission.
Second, eleven of the 13 volunteers have had no pre-
viDus experience with CPXs. Therefore, they have no frame
of reference to draw from to understand how the many parts
of the exercise fit together as a whole. They may therefore
be limited in understanding the overall impact, com-
plexities, and interdisciplinary relationships that must
exist between logistical support and operational require-
ments needed to meet mission taskings. To further expand
this point, a converse side may also exist. The two volun-
teers who had previous experience as response cell members,
had that experience in a tactical environment. There may be
enough of a difference in CPX procedures among the major
commands to cause possible bias in how this database model
was evaluated. Preconceived expectations may not have been
satisfied with the mock exercise that would have normally
4-34
occurred in a tactical CPX. Little can be done to counter
this confound except recognizing that it exists, and re-
cruiting personnel with experience or with a compatible
background to those personnel typically used in CPXs. The
researcher made every effort to ensure this confound was'
minimized.
The third and most important possible confound relating
to the background of the volunteers is that none of the
A personnel had any experience with the KC-135 aircraft. Both
from an operations point of view and from a maintenance
point of view it would be difficult to evaluate the useful-
ness of the database model without having some KC-135 air-
craft background.
An important next step was to carefully scrutinize the
respondent's comments. Many of the confounds previously
identified were evident in the comments made by the respon-
dents. Additionally, analysis of the comments identified
further confounds that may have tainted the test results.
The most noted problem, identified by 7 of the 13
respondents, dealt with the format of the WRSK supply list-
ing. The respondents had difficulty determining if a needed
-part was available in supply because the WRSK listing was
not sorted by NSN or WUC. This forced the respondents to
search through each page of the WRSK listing to determine if
the needed part was available. Though the WRSK listing is
not part of the database model itself, it is a necessary
4-35
tool to monitor consumption data for supply parts. Unfor-
tunately, the data results of question six reflect this
problem thereby severely tainting the overall evaluation of
the database model.
A second problem, identified by five respondents, deals
with the inherent design of the database model. Because the
entire database is available to response cell members at the
beginning of an exercise, *gaming" can result. That is,
response cell members can determine, ahead of time, what
their future needs will be. If not controlled at the res-
popse cell level, exercise realism can be seriously.
effected. The supply system can be unjustly tasked through
the requisition of parts not ye~t needed, which will lead to
inflated aircraft availability.
The third problem, identified by four respondents, sup-
ports- an earlier identified confound of the mock exercise.
Namely, the respondents had no previous CPX experience they
could- use for comparison against this database model. With-
out prior CPX experience, it was difficult to make an objec-
tive evaluation. Clearer stated evaluation objectives could
have reduced this confound somewhat.
Other comments made by the respondents that supported
or identified possible confounds included lack of experience
with the aircraft (3 comments), unfamiliar with exercise
procedures (2 comments), and not understanding the question
(I comment).
4-36
Several comments were hard to interpret. Five comments
did not make any sense what-so-ever with respect to the
question being asked. This may have resulted from an unclear
understanding of the question. Another comment was made
that was inconsistent with the respondent's numerical re-
sponse for that question. This may be attributed to a miss-
mark by the respondent, or, as stated earlier, an unclear
understanding of the question being asked.
Finally, a single comment was made concerning the un-
realistically low number of Code 3 discrepancies identified
in the database. Though this comment supports an earlier
identified confound stemming from unfamiliarity with the
-aircraft, it is nevertheless a comment worth investigating.
During the development phase of the database model, the
-researcher had also identified an abnormally low number of
Code 3 discrepancies present in the source data. At present
the researcher has been unable to pin point the exact cause.
The data does not appear abnormal to the maintenance experts
who reviewed the raw data. The experts argue that aircraft
typically deployed to support ETTF requirements tend to have
fewer Code 3 discrepancies. Though this appears to be the
case with this database model, the researcher has been
unable to confirm or disprove this argument.
4-37
A second concern with the database model is reflected
in the dramatic decrease in the number of discrepancies per
aircraft and an associated decrease in the number of parts
replaced. Figure 2, Graph 1, shows the number of parts re-
* '-=-" !.0 so:rties flown. From this graph it
Ing has occurred to effect the number
r the five months the ETTF data covers.
on in parts consumed may be partially explained
by an apparent decrease in the number of discrepancies
reported.
Figure 2, Graph 2, shows the relationship between the
total number of discrepancies reported per every 50 sorties
flown and the number of parts replaced for each of those 50
sorties. As would be expected, as the total number of dis-
crepancies decrease, the parts consumption should decrease
as well; however, as Graph 2 shows, parts consumption drops
sharply in relation to the decreased number of discrepan-
cies. The researcher believes some other event, besides a
decrease in discrepancies, has occurred to cause the sharp
drop in parts consumption. As yet, the researcher has been
unable to isolate the cause.
With the non-statistical analysis of the data complete,
it is now necessary to perform statistical analysis.
4-38
Graph INumnber of Parts Required /50 Sorties
Number
Required
40-
30
50 150 250 350too 200 300
Numter of Sorties Flown
Graph 2Parts VS Discrepancies /50 Sorties
120
Total 60-Number
60
40-
20-
4 050 150 250 350
100 200 300
Nmber of Sorties Flown
Figure 2. Graphical Com~parison1 ofo PartLs/Discrepanci'esFrom ETTF Source Data
4-39
Statistical Analysis.
Statistical analysis will be performed using STATISTIX
II, An Interactive Statistical Analysis Program for Micro-
computers, by NH Analytical Software.
Identifying Confounds.
Several steps were taken during the analysis to statis-
tically identify outliers caused by confounds within the
data. Outliers are those possibly faulty extreme measure-
ments that stand out from the rest of the data (McClave and
Benson, 1988:126). Outliers can taint or skew the data
causing erroneous results when analyzed.
A first step in the analysis was to review the raw
data. Table 3 shows the raw data in a form easily used for
comparison. The vertical axis corresponds to each of the
questions from Evaluation Survey 1 found in Appendix E. The
horizontal axis corresponds to each of the 13 respondents.
Each coordinate represents the numerical value from the
likert scale the. respondent chose in response to the asso-
ciated question. Descriptive statistics for the data is
provided in Table 4. Here, the calculated mean and standard
deviation are displayed, along with the sample size for each
respondent's associated probability distribution.
A missing data value is present in this data as in-
dicated in Table 3. The Friedman non-parametric ANOVA
procedure, a statistical procedure that will be used in
4-40
later data analysis, does not allow for missing data.
Therefore, to overcome this obstacle without affecting the
procedure's results, the respondent's probability dis-
tribution mean value of 2.5 will be substituted and used for
all statistical calculations.
TABLE .3
EVALUATION SURVEY 1
RAW DATA MATRIX
Respondents (Treatment)
(Block)Quest. A B C D E F G H I J K L M
3 2 4 9 2 2 2 2112 1 3 2
12 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
3 1 2 5 2 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2
4 1 1 3- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3
6 5 3 5- 5 5 5 3 2 1 4 2 1 5
7 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 5
8 2 2 .3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3
9 2 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2
10 2 1 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 1l 2 2 2
Missing data Value.
4-41
TABLE 4
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
EVALUATION SURVEY 1 DATA
Respondents- Sample Size Mean Standard Deviation
A 10 2.20 1.229
B 10 1.80 0.788
C 10 3.20 1.135
D 10 2.20 1.135 A
E 10 3.00 1.414
F 10 2.10 1.197
G 10 1.70 0.675
H 10 1.70 0.483
I 10 1.50 0_972
J 10 1.80 1.229
K 10 1.60 0.966
'L !.0 1.80. 1.033
M 9 * 2.50 1.310
Missing data value
Box and Whisker plots, shown in Figure 3, were used to
evaluate the raw data to determine if potential outliers
exist. The first plot evaluates if any outliers exist in
the data with respect to the respondents. while the second
4-42
plot evaluates the existence of outliers with respect to the
evaluation survey questions.
Respondent Box and Whisker Plot
--- (--- + ) -------------------
+-------+---------+--------------+--------------4-------------------------
1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0
Question Box and Whisker Plot
---- + )
+-------4----------+--------------+--------------+------------------------
-1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
+ The middle (MEDIAN) for the data set.
(1 Encloses the middle half of the data.
) Represent approximately 95% confidence intervals aboutthe medians.
-- Whiskers" that indicate typical data values.
* Indicates POSSIBLE outliers.
Figure 3. Box and Whisker PlotEvaluation Survey 1 Data
As can be seen from Figure 3, two possible outliers
exist within the data set for both the respondents and the
4-43
questions. It is important to determine, statistically, if
outliers do in fact exist in the data set so appropriate
measures can be taken to eliminate their influence. A
Friedman non-parametric 2-way ANOVA test was used to test
the null hypothesis that no difference exists in the prob-
ability distribution for each of the respondents, and that
no difference exists in the probability distribution for
each of the survey questions. The results can be seen in
Table 5-.
TABLE 5
FRIEDMAN TEST
DETERMINATION OF OUTLIERS
Test
Statistic P-Value
Respondents 37.26 .0002
Questions 44.43 .0000
At the .05 level of significance, the null hypothesis
can be rejected based on the P-Value for the two tests. The
conclusion that can be drawn from these tests are that dif-
ferences do exist in the probability distributions for both
the respondents and for the questions.
4-44
The next questions to answer, then, are which dis-
tributions are different, and, does a pattern exist that
supports the results of the Box and Whisker plot that out-
liers exist in the data for both the respondents and the
questions?
To answer these questions, a Wilcoxon Signed Ranked
test was first performed for each possible pair of ques-
t-ions. The researcher felt it important to identify any
-possible outliers with the questions first so corrective
actions can be taken prior to performing the Wilcoxon Signed
Ranked test on the respondents. That is, by first elimina-
ting confounds inherent with the questions, the confounds
inherent with respect to respondents are clearer to recog-
nize. Table 6 will show the results of the test for each
pa!r of--questions. The test null hypothesis used during
each of the tests ks that both probability distributions are
identical. The test was conducted at the .05 level of
significance. A matrix is used to show the relationships
between the pairs of questions being tested. A series of
asterisks (*) and Xs will be used to represent the results
o-f the test. An asterisk indicates a P-Value greater than
the .05 level of significance, along with a conclusion that
both probability distributions are identical. An X in-
dicates a P-Value less than the .05 level of significance
and follows with a conclusion that the null hypothesis can
4-45
be rejected. With an X result, the resulting conclusion is
that the two probability distributions are different. To
provide proof that outliers do exist with respect to the
questions, the Xs are expected to be concentrated among the
possible outlier(s). If no outliers exist, the Xs should be
mixed uniformly throughout the matrix.
The results of the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test show
questions 4 and 6 have an abnormally large number of dif-
ferences in their probability distributions as compared to
the others. Question 4 can be explained because 12 of the
1-3 volunteers marked the same response to the question (See
Question 4, Survey 1, This Chapter). No confounds were
id entified to justify removal'of this question from the data
-set. Question 6 is singled out because its probability
distribution is also significantly different than those of
the other questions. Six of the 13 respondents responded
with a *strongly disagree* to the question. As noted in the
non-statistical analysis section of this chapter, seven of
the 13 respondents provided comments reflecting dissatis-
faction with the format of the WRSK listing. The results of
the Wilcoxon Si-gned Rank test, coupled with the comments
made by thG respondents provide enough evidence to conclude
a confound exists that is effecting the results of the data
set. That is, the unsatisfactory format of the WRSK listing
is reflected in the responses made by the respondents.
4-46
TABLE 6-
WILCOXON SIGNED RANK TEST
QUESTIONS
Evaluation Survey Questions
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
* X X * * 1
X X X X x X 4
Total * 26 XX 7
Total X 19 a
45. 9.
10
Frequency d-istribution of Xfor each Question
1 2 3 8 9 10
Total2Xs per 2 2Que.9t.
Consequently, an analysis of the data to determine the
usefulness of the database model is Qzeriously tainted by the
4-47
responses made for question 6. Therefore, responses to
question 6 will he remo,ed f rom the data set.
With question 6 removed from the data set, a second Box
and Whiskers plot was performed on the data. Figure 4 shows
that two possible and one probable outlier exists with
respect to the probability distributions of the respondents.
+ J) * 0
--------------------------------- +----------------+----------------+------------
1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 :3.0
+ The middle (MEDIAN) for the data set.
[] Encloses the middle half of the data.
* Represent approximately 95% confidence intervals aboutthe medians.
-- Whiskers" that indicate typical data values.
* Indicates POSSIBLE outliers.
O PROBABLE outlier.
Figure 4. Box and Whisker Plot of Data SetWith Question Six Removed
Analysis should be performed on any outliers that lie
beyond the fences to determine if they belong to a different
population as compared v t te ample wh tch was drawn
4-48
A Wilcoxon Signed Rank test can now be performed on the data
to determine if the possible outliers identified can be
isolated.
Table 7 shows the results of the test for each pair of
respondents. The same test hypothesis used during the
previous Wilcoxon Signed Rank test wil be used here as
well. To restate again, the test null hypothesis for each
pair of respondents is that both probability distributions
are identical. The test was conducted at the .05 level of
significance. Again, a matrix is used to show the relation-
ships between the pairs of questions being tested. A series
of asterisks (*) and Xs will also be used to represent the
results of the test. An asterisk and X have the same mean-
ing as described earlier in this section. To provide proof
that outliers do exist with respect to the respondents, the
Xs should be concentrated among the possible outlier(s). if
no outliers exist, the Xs should be mixed uniformly through-
out the matrix.
As can be seen from the frequency distribution in Table
7, respondents C and M have the largest concentration of
non-identical probability distributions. Though a third
outlier was identified with the Box and Whisker plot, the
results of the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test failed to support
that a third outlier exists. The results of the Wilcoxon
4-49
TABLE 7
WILCOXON SIGNED RANK TEST
RESPONDENTS
A B C D E F G H I J K L M
T l K K * * * * K K K * A
iX * * K * * * * * * B
K X X X X K X X * C
* * * ,K * K * K * D
* * * * * * * * E
K" K * K * * k F
* * K * * X G
Total * -- 65
Total K = 13K X K
78x L
M
Frequency distribution of X
for Respondents
A B C D E F G H I J K L IM-
X G
Total 02
Xs per 00 0 1 22 1Resp.
4-50
Signed Rank test, however, provides enough evidence to
categorize respondents C and M as outliers to the data set.
Consequently, the responses from respondent C and respondent
M will be removed from the data set.
It must be noted at this point that a double edge sword
exists with the collected data. On the one hand, a reduc-
tion in number of respondents, from an already small sample
size, weakens the strength of the statistical results. Or,
the other hand, allowing confounds to exist in the data set
prevents a clear understanding of the data. Confounds cloud
the water, so to speak, preventing the observance of true
cause and effect relationships. This researcher believes it
more important to have a small amount of data, clear of
confounding effects, than to have a larger amount of data
with confounds that adversely influence the relationships of
the independent and dependent variable being tested.
Analyzing Modified Data.
With suspected confounds removed from the data set,
evaluation of the modified data set can now be accomplished.
As stated in the Evaluation Survey Development section of
this chapter, the intent is to determine whether, in the
opinion of the volunteers, the database model is a useful
tool in providing realistic logistical information to
recponCe cell Cme ..-..
4-51
Descriptive statistics and the Friedman non-parametric
two-way ANOVA procedure were used on the data set to eval-
uate the opinion of the volunteers. Descriptive statistics jfor the data set are shown in Table 8.
TABLE 8
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
MODIFIED EVALUATION SURVEY i DATA 4
Respondents Sample Size Mean Standard Deviation
A 9 1.89 O.782
B 9 1.67 0.707
D 9 1.89 0.601
E 9 2.78 1.302
F 9 1.78 0.667
G 9 1.56 0.527
H 9 1.67 0.500
I 9 1.56 1.014
J 9 1.56 1.014
K 9 1.56 1.014
L 9 1.89 1.054 ,1Average Mean 1.80
As Table 8 shows, the average mean for all respondents
is 1.80. The queslion Lhal must now be answered is whether
1.80 is representative for all respondents.
4-52
An analysis of variance (ANOVA) procedure can be used
to determine if the average mean is representative for all
respondents. Many ANOVA procedures exist. In choosing
which procedure to use, i.e. parametric, non-parametric,
one-way or two-way, assumptions for each procedure had to be
analyzed against the data. Parametric ANOVA procedures have
restrictive data assumptions that, in this case, were not
met. Parametric ANOVA procedures require the response var-
iance be statistically equal. The standard deviations for
each of the respondents are not statistically equal and
thereby prevent the use of parametric ANOVA procedures. On
the other hand, non-panametric procedures are far less
restrictive on required data assumptions. Furthermore,
their strength lies in their general applicability (McClave
and Benson 1988:991). The two non-parametric procedures
considered for use were the Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA and
the Friedman two-way ANOVA. The Friedman two-way ANOVA was
chosen over the one-way ANOVA procedure because it allows
the blocking of variables. The advantage here is that the
blocking of variables reduces the "Within' variability for
the denominator in the F statistic calculation. Consequent-
ly, a larger F statistic results which amplifies the dif-
ferences in the probability distributions during the test.
The results of the Friedman test are shown in Table 9. The
procedure tests the null hypothesis that no difference
4-53
exists in the probability distribution for each of the
respondents at the .05 level of significance.
TABLE 9
ANALYSIS OF MODIFIED DATA USING FRIEDMAN'S TEST
TestStatistic P-Value
Respondents 12.76 .2372
The results of the test show that the null hypothesis
cannot be rejected at the .05 level of significance. Mean-
ing, enough statistical evidence does not exist to dispute
the hypothesis that the probability distributions for each
respondent are identical.
Evaluation Survey 2 Data Analysis.
The second evaluation survey was given to personnel who
have had previous CPX experience as a response cell member.
The purpose of this survey was to provide a means of measur-
ing the degree of logistic realism provided by the database
model over other methods in use today. To provide meaning-
ful statistical comparisons, participants must satisfy two
conditions, First, tbey must have had previous experience
as a response cell member during a CPX at some time in their
4-54
career. Second, they should be somewhat familiar with the
KC-135 aircraft to include its capabilities and its logis-
tical support requirements. Of the thirteen participants,
only two individuals have had previous CPX experience, and
neither of them had any experience with the KC-135 aircraft.
Even though the two individuals completed Evaluation Survey
2, their responses provided no information that could be
useful for meaningful statistical analysis and was there-
fore not used.
Summary
Chapter IV provided a detailed discussion of the
analysis, findings, and results of this thesis ef'fort. The
Chapter focused on procedures used to collect source data
for the database model, procedures for development of the
database model, procedures for the testing of the database
model, and procedures used to analyze the results. Chapter
V will now focus on conclusions that can be drawn from this
thesis effort, along with recommendations to further the
advancement of this effort.
4-55
V. Conclusions and Recommendations
Overview
The intention of this thesis effort is to provide an
alternative method for determining and evaluating critical
logistical requirements to support mission taskings during
Command Post Exercises (CPXs). Furthermore, it is intended
to make exercizs play at the response cell level more real-
istic so that the environment of war in CPXs is more closely
replicated and our forces and command authorities are better
prepared to carry out their duties more effectively.
Through this research, a historical aircraft mainten-
ance database model has been used to improve exercise real-
ism. Historical database models are based on the premise
that realistic data collected from actual war-like missions
can be placed in a database for use by response cell members
to provide simulated, yet realistic, logistical requirements
during Command Post Exercises. Historical database models
realistically task logistic needs against operational re-
quirements to meet mission taskings. Consequently, mean-
ingful constraints are imposed that force exercise players
to think through problems that would more realistically
exist under war-like conditions.
Sound strategic and tactical decisions cannot be made
without realistic input on logistical support capabilities.
The database model takes a significant step toward providing
5-1
decision makers a clearer picture of logistical capabilities
by incorporating war-like logistical data into exercise play
at the response cell level.
This chapter contains the concluding remarks and recom-
mendations from the foregoing presentation. A discussion on
meeting the research objectives, to include conclusions,
will be presented first, followed by recommendations for
handling the research documents and recommendations for
further research efforts. The chapter will close with
summary remarks.
Primary Findings
The primary purpose of this thesis effort was to pro-
vide HQ SAC/LGL a historical database model that would im-
prove realism in CPXs for use with the KC-135A/E/R aircraft.
To accomplish this objective, several investigative ques-
tions were used to guide the research effort (See Ch 1, Pg
5-6).
The first research question examines the issue of war-
like exercise or deployment data versus routine peacetime
training data. Of critical importance to the historical
database model is the use of war-like data in the database
development. Considerable research was conducted through
literature searches and informal telephone interviews to
determine if ETTF missions accurately depicted aircraft
logistics requirements during war. Though no hard and
5-2
conclusive research evidence was found to support the pre-
mise that ETTF data depicts aircraft logistics requirements
more realistically than does other routine peacetime flying
data, it is reasonable to expect that the training missions
flown during ETTF deployments realistically replicate ex-
pected wartime mission taskings. With this supposition, it
would logically follow that aircraft logistics requirements
from ETTF missions would provide more realism than would
routine peacetime flying data.
The next four investigative questions were examined
during a mock exercise that was designed to test the data-
base model. Constructs employed in Evaluation Survey 1 (See
Appenaix E) were designed to answer the investigative ques-
tions concerning whether the database model was realistic,
whether the database model was easy to use, and whether the
database model provided the needed information necessary for
response cell members to carry out their duties effectively.
The mock exercise also demonstrated the capability of the
database model to be used in compressed exercise schedules.
The database model's capability, to be used during compress-
ed exercise schedules, offer a high degree of flexibility
where time considerations become a constraint to the exer-
cise.
5-3
Conclusions
Due to the limitations imposed by the mock exercise
testing procedure, only superficial conclusions can be made
concerning the data collected from Evaluation Survey 1.
The degree of confidence in the conclusions are par-
tia-lly based on the degree to which confounds effecting the
data are minimized. The degree to which confounds exist in
an experiment has an inverse effect on the degree of con-
fidence placed on the test results. A higher degree of
confidence is accepted as the effects of confounds on the
experiment are recognized and reduced. The limitations of
conducting a mock exercise to test the database model rather
than using a CPX (the preferred method) are realized by an
increased effect of confounds on the experiment results.
Consequently, less confidence is placed on the final analy-
sis of the data. Therefore, "only limited generalized con-
clusions can be made about the database model.
Final analysis of the data show that the probability
distributions for each respondent are statistically iden-
tical with an average mean of 1.80 (See Ch 4, Table 8).
Based on- the Likert scale, as used in Evaluation Survey 1,
the average mean score suggests the respondents *Tend To
Agree' the database model was useful toward providing real-
istic logistical information to response cell members.
Therefore, the researcher concludes that the database model
5-4
provides response cell members with a useful tool to obtain
realistic logistical information they would need to carry
out their duties effectively.
A conclusion cannot be made, however, regarding whether
the database model improves loistical realism over existing
mathematical models currently in use. To make such a con-
clusion would require a comparative analysis of personnel
with prior experience using both mathematical models and
historical database models. Unfortunately, personnel were
not available during the mock exercise that possessed the
-necessary CPX experience and aircraft experience to perform
any meaningful statistical analysis.
Recommendations
Handling Research Documents.
It is recommended that SAC/LGL maintain and reproduce
as necessary the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics
Database, Information Guide, Practice Database, and Training
Slides.
Future Research.
Both with the B-52G database model and with this data-
base model, statistical evidence has not been gathered in
sufficient quantity to prove or disprove the hypothesis that
historical databasing improves realism in CPXs over other
existing methods. A next step in the research is to test
5-5
these models extensively at the CPX level. Information
gathered through this research effort and previous research
by Capt Hall (See Hall, 1989) provide a foundation of solid
pre-test data. Testing the models using a Pre-test/Post-
test experimental design would provide useful statistical
information to determine if the models support the hypo-
thesis of improved logistics realism during CPXs. There-
fore, it is recommended that SAC/LGL solicit further re-
search to validate the hypothesis that historical databas.-
ing (to include both the B-52G and the KC-135A/E/R database
models) improves realism over mathematical models currently
in use today. This type of research could be accomplished
either through the Air Force Institute of Technology'.3
School of Systems and Logistics Graduate Program, or through
the Air Force Logistics Management Center (AFLMC) at Gunter
AFB, Alabama.
it is also recommended that the Historical Database
Model be expanded to include other aircraft in the Air Force
inventory. Tactical aircraft, to include the F-15 and
F-16, would be ideal candidates for such a database model.
Tactical aircraft should have readily available source data
to develop the database model. Military Exercises such as
Red Flag, Coronet Warrior, or even routine deployments can
provide the logistical data necessary to develop the his-
torical database model.
5-6
Summary
The defense forces of this nation operate in an ever
changing and dynamic environment. The dramatic changes in
world events since 1989 have caused considerable debate over
the needed strength of our nation's defense forces. A
perceived decreasing threat from WARSAW Pact countries have
caused this nation to reconsider its threats and to adjust
its military strength accordingly. Furthermore, the Bush
Administration and the American public expect the Defense
Department to work more effectively with their limited
resources. The defense forces of this nation should work
smarter toward maximizing military effectiveness with the
resources they are provided.
Budget.reductions resulting from this changing environ-
ment will surely lead to reductions in our force capabil-
ities. Among others, a most notable reduced force capabil-
ity will result from a reduction in manpower authorizations.
As our manning authorizations are reduced, the most ex-
perienced and educated of our forces leave the military, via
early retirement opportunities or through 'Early Out*
programs. Voids left by these departures are generally
filled with inexperienced and unseasoned personnel.
The challenge to all Air Force leaders is to minimize
the effects of force reductions on military readiness
5-7
through proactive employment of tools such as the Historical
Database Model concept. The use of Historical Databasing
during Command Post Exercises provide the needed, improved,
and realistic training for military leaders that allow force
readine.s to be maintained effectively. Furthermore, an
added benefit of the Historical Database Modeling concept is
that it is relatively inexpensive to develop. As evidenced
by both this thesis effort and the B-52G thesis effort, only
one person, through the sponsorship of SAC/LGL, was needed
to develop the historical database model and its associated
documentation. The actual time needed to develop such a
model can be dramatically reduced over the year used to
develop this'thesis effort. This could be accomplished by
employing a person full time and using a methodology similar
to the one employed by this researcher or by the methodology
used by Capt Hall during his research effort (See Hall,
1989:Ch 3, 1).
Another benefit of historical databasing is its sim-
plicity. The model is relatively easy to build if avail-
able data exists. Source data needed for this type of model
can be gathered through Flag Exercises or aircraft deploy-
ments so long as the flying missions closely replicate
expected wartime taskings. Because war-like data is readily
available for many aircraft types, the model has broad
application over a wide variety of CPX scenarios. The model
5-8
can be applied to CPXs of varying types and degrees and does
not require any specialized training or equipment beyond
minimal familiarization training. Additionally, the model
is based on accepted maintenance practices used in one form
or another by most major commands throughout the Air Force.
Another important benefit of the model is that it is
used at the lowest level of a CPX. At the response cell
level, both logistic requirements and operational needs must
merge to effectively accomplish mission taskings. Con-
sequently, by use of the model, a clearer picture of a units
capabilities, limitations, weaknesses, and strengths emerge
and ripple through the exercise command and support infra-
structures. The resulting benefit is improved realism at
all levels. Logisticians and operators work jointly to
solve constraining problems while decision makers at all
levels are provided alternatives based on a more realistic
foundation of logistical support. Recommendations and
decisions can now be based on realistic input rather than
generated and often inaccurate data.
Improved realism in CPXs does not have to bn a result
of sophisticated and complex systems. Simplistic, yet
effective tools are available. The historical database
modeling concept is one such tool whose time has come.
5-9
Appendix A: KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Database
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Appendix B: Information Guide
Table of Contents
Page
Introduction...................... -
Overview.........................B-3
I. The Database Format................B-4
II. Aircraft Inspections...............B-6
Phase Inspection................B-6
Hourly Post-flight (HPO) Inspection ... B-9
III. Aircraft Parts..................B-10
IV. Initial Forms Set-up..............B-12
V. At STARTEX ..................... B-15
VI. During the Exercise...............B-19
Special Database Events..........B-19
Late Takeoffs..............B-19Air Aborts..............B-19
Attrition....................B-19Additional/Replacement!
Transit Aircraft...........B-19Flow of Events...............B-19Playing Multiple Locations .......... B-20
VII. At ENDEX....................B-21
B-1
List of Figures1
Figure Page
B-.Phase Inpetio In a Nutshll. .......... B-7
B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell ... ........... B-9
B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols . . . B-13
B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell ......... B-1-8
List of Tablesi
Table Page
B -i. Contingency Phase Inspection Times. ......... B-8
B-2. Aircraft Phase and HPO Times at STARTEX .. .... B-14
B-2
KC-135/A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE LOGISTICS DATABASEINFORMATION GUIDE (Hall, 1989:Ap B)
Introduction
1. The XC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Database and itsassociated worksheets and instructions were developed tomake response cell play more realistic during command postexercises. The database places aircraft availability atrealistic levels without impeding other objectives at higherechelons of exercise play. Additionally, realistic demands
4W for aircraft parts are generated. The database informationcan be viewed as the information a battle staff would nor-mally receive from the aircraft readiness center.
2. Information for the database was derived from data gath-ered during routine European tanker task force flying mis-sions. Therefore, the data is based upon actual aircraftmaintenance in support of flying operations-. The databasecan be expected to produce results consistent with realisticoccurrences. However, the results during your particularexercise will be dependent upon the taskings you receive.
3. The information and guidance on the following pages isto help you use the database as well as determine otherfactors which have a direct bearing on your aircraft avail-ability and parts requirements.
4. Remember that you will face many problems and challengesin this exercise. In most cases, they are the same problemsand challenges that your unit could expect to face in anactual deployment. Work as diplomatically as possible withyour host unit to resolve problems. The database shouldhelp you keep your thoughts focused along these lines. Makesure you share the things you learn with your home unit sothey can be better prepared for deployment.
Overview
This information guide will help you:
1. Understand the structure and use of the database.
2. Initially set up your aircraft worksheets.
3. Document the CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2.
4. Determine aircraft downtime and availability.
5. Determine parts required and their availabilityin the war readiness spares kit (WRSX).
B-3
I. The Database Format
The columns of the database are as follows:
Maintenance Event Control Number - The control numberis used to identify a 'maintenance event*for a particular aircraft on the CPX MXWorksheets 1 and 2. A maintenance eventincludes all the lines in the databaseassociated with a specific maintenanceevent control number. It also provides ameans of record keeping for later anal-ysis.
Acft T.N. - The aircraft tail number to which the jmaintenance event is assigned is enteredin this block (by the user).
Lndg Code - Identifies the maintenance condition of anaircraft returning from a mission.
Code 1: Aircraft/system(s) fully oper-ational. Aircraft is landing with noknown discrepancies which would adverselyaffect performance of the aircraft/sys-tem(s).
Code 2: Aircraft/system(s) has/have minordiscrepancies which may affect operatingperformance but will generally not pre-clude the aircraft from flying another1mission prior to repair.
Code 3: Aircraft/system(s) has/have dis-crepancies which render the aircraft and/-or system(s) unusable. Generally, air- dcraft are not flown until Code 3 discrep-ancies are repaired.
Fix Time The time needed to repair a discrepancylisted in the database. The times listeddo not include normal refuel, phase, HPO,preflight/thruflight/postflight inspec-tion. (Time in hours to the nearest te-nth) The overall fix time is identified byan asterisk in the Lndg Code column whenan aircraft has Code 3 discrepancies.
NSN - The national stock number (NSN) of theneeded repair parts,
B-4
Noun - The nomenclature of the needed repairpart.
WTJC - The work unit code (WUC) associated withthe major repair part or system.
Qty - Quantity of repair part(s) if needed.
In WRSK - For the user to identify if the repairpart is availabl'e in the WRSK (Yes/No).
MESL For the user to identify whether theaffected system is on the minimum essen-tial systems list (MESL) if the part isnot on-hand (Yes/No).
Msg DTG - For the user to write the date-time-groupof the message requesting a part notavailable in the WRSK.
Remarks To provide a short, general description ofthe discrepancy associated with a main-tenance event.
B-5
II. Aircraft Inspections
1. Phase Inspection. Aircraft maintenance and schedulingis based, in part, on flying time and phase hours. Main-tenance is a cyclic process and a phase inspection startsthe cycle. A phase inspection is accomplished every 200flying hours. In the 'real world' environment, an aircraftwhich has flown a 5-hour mission immediately following aphase is counted as having 195 hours remaining until thenext phase. However, in the interest of *simplicity* forthis exercise, we will accumulate flying/phase hours (i.e. 0+ 5 = 5, 5 + 5 = 10, etc).
a. When 200 hours have been accumulated on an aircraft,you remove the aircraft from the flying schedule (line-up)and perform a contingency phase inspection. Contingencyphase inspections are much different from those accomplishedduring peacetime. The contingency phase is an abbreviatedphase inspection to inspect critical items crucial to combatmission effectiveness. The amount of time required to per-form each phase inspection is determined by using Table B-1. Because phase inspection teams improve their proficiencywith each successive contingency phase inspection, eachphase takes less time to perform than the last until 31hours is reached.
(1) You also have a 10 percent (20 hour) leeway onwhen to accomplish the phase which helps streamline thescheduling process. In other words, depending on missionrequirements, you can accomplish the phase inspection anytime between the 180 and 220-hour point. However, youshould attempt to accomplish the phase as close to the200-hour point as possible.
(2) To further explain, an aircraft could be taskedto fly a 8-hour mission if it had 22C.0 or less hours accum-ulated since last phase. However, it would not be goodscheduling practice to do so. Furthermore, if an aircraftlands with 220.1 hours accumulated since last phase, it is'GROUNDED* until the phase has been completed.
b. To improve your readiness and aircraft availability,ensure you stagger the phase hours of your aircraft. The-phase inspection schedule can have dramatic effects on youraircraft availability and readiness, both good and bad. Notwo aircraft should be allowed to come due or be undergoingphase inspection at the same time, if at all possible.Generally speaking, you will not have the maintenance cap-ability to phase more than one aircraft at a time. Plan
B-6
which aircraft you will fly to keep your overall phaseschedule balanced.
c. Upon completion of a phase inspection, you must"reset the clock.' This means the aircraft now has 0.0phase hours accumulated. Remember to update the CPX MXworksheet.
d. Other maintenance actions can and should be accom-plished concurrently with the phase inspection. However,some fix times from the database may exceed the phase time.When this occurs, use the longer database fix time. Ineither case, a 4-hour preflight/thruflight must be added to
=whichever time is longer to account for refueling, servic-ing, ground crew and air crew preflight times.
e. If an aircraft flush (emergency evacuation) is im-minent, an aircraft can be considered flyable if it has beenundergoing phase inspection for less than 2 hours. Further-more, an aircraft overdue phase inspection can be launchedin an emergency, assuming it is in flyable condition.
PHASE INSPECTION IN A NUTSHELL
Due every 200 +/- 20 (180 to 220)
flying hours (since last phase).
Use Table B-i to determine the timerequired to perform the phaseinspection.
Use the longer of either the 31-hourphase time or the database fix timeand then add the 4-hour preflight/thruflight.
- Reset the aircraft's phase hours to0.0 hours (accumulated).
- Aircraft is flushable if less thanhours from the phase start time.
Figure B-1. Phase Inspection In a Nutshell
B-7
f. Determine the time required to perform a con-tingency phase inspection from Table B-i. The table re-flects that the phase team becomes more efficient each timethey perform the inspection, For example, the first air-craft which comes due for a phase inspection will take thephase inspection team 72 hours to complete. However, whenthe second aircraft comes due for a phase inspection, itwill take the team only 59 hours to perform, and so on. Thesixth phase inspection and all others will take the team 31hours to perform.
TABLE B-i
CONTINGENCY PHASE INSPECTION TIMES
Phases performed by Time Required
the phase team to Perform
1st 72.0 hours
2nd 59.0 hours
3rd 48.0 hours
4th 39.0 hours
5th 33.0 hours
6th and all other phaseinspections performed 31.0 hours
I
B1-8
2. Hourly Post-flight (HPO) Inspection. The HPO is anotherinspection that affects flying hour and maintenance schedul-ing.
a. The HPO is accomplished every 50 hours. However, noHPO is required at the 200-hour point because it is accomp-lished as a part of the phase inspection. A 10 percent (5hour) leeway is also provided for this inspection providinga 45 to 55 hour window (since last inspection) in which toaccomplish the inspection. In other words, the inspectioncan be performed after the aircraft has accrued 45 flyinghours, but the aircraft cannot be launched with more than 55flying hours since last HPO or phase until the inspectionhas been completed. This inspection requires 2 hours tocomplete.
b. The database fix time and the 4-hour preflight/thru-flight time is added to the 2-hour" HPO.
HPO INSPECTION IN A NUTSHELL
- Due every 50 +/- 5 (45 to 55) flying
hours (since last HPO).
- Takes 2 hours to complete.
-The database fix time and the 4-hour
preflight/thruflight times are addedto the 2-hour HPO.
Reset HPO hours to 0.0 when:
-- An HPO inspection is completed.
A phase inspection is completed(HPO is integral part of phase).
Figure B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell
B-9
III. Aircraft Parts
1. Many assumptions have been made in the area of aircraftparts. Our objective is to drive demands for the criticalparts reflected in the database. So that the database iskept to a manageable size, many less critical parts are notshown. The deployed unit has an extensive amount of benchstock with them.
2. Part(s) requirements are identified in the database bynational stock number (NSN) , noun (nomenclature), work unitcode (WUC) and the quantity required. A WRSK (CSMS assetmaster file) listing identifies authorizations by stocknumber and WUC, and indicates the quantity authorized andquantity on-hand.
3. When a part or parts are ident'ified in the database fora maintenance event (Code 2 or 3), the current WRSK listingfor the deploying unit should be checked.
a. If the part is available in the WRSK, simply writeyes* in the "In WRSK" column of-the database and considerthe aircraft repaired within the specified database fixtime.
b. If the part is not available in the WRSK, the ap-propriate Logistics Readiness Center (LRC) should be noti-fied of the exercise part requirement via message. The NSN,noun, WUC and quantity are shown in the database. Post themessage Date-Time-Group (DTG) in the "Msg DTG" column.
(1) Non-Essential System. If the system is notlisted in the Minimum Essential Systems List (MESL, AFR 65-110/SAC Sup 1), or the system is Code 2, or there is a highprobability the aircraft could complete its mission withoutthe replacement part, fly the aircraft "as is". Do notcannibalize if nothing would be gained by doing so. Yourgoal is to maximize aircraft availability. See paragraph 5for more discussion of the MESL.
(2) Essential System. If the system is essen-tial, then cannibalization is probably in order. Refer to
paragraph 5 for help in determining whether a system isessential in the conventional or SfOP role. Remember toconsolidate cannibalizations to as few aircraft as possible.If the option to cannibalize is selected, the aircraftreceiving the part can be considered flyable at the end ofits database fix time.
(3) Make sure cannibalization actions are shownon the CPX MX Worksheets and the database. This way you
B-10
will know exactly what has been cannibalized from an air-craft and can better track the MICAP condition. A MICAPcondition exists when the non-availability of a part rendersan aircraft cr system out of commission for its intendedpurpose.
(4) Consider the *donor* aircraft flyable whennotified by the LRC that the MICAP is satisfied and thedatabase fix time has elapsed. If the LRC fails to notifyyou of the delivery date for a MICAP part, consider thedelivery date of the part to be 7 days from date and timethe aircraft was declared MICAP.
4. Update the quantities on the WRSK listing and keep themcurrent. When parts are used out of the WRSK, reduce theon-hand quantity by the number taken (in pencil). Likewise,when items are received, show the appropriate quantityincreases.
5. The MESL excerpt from AFR 65-110/SAC Sup 1, AttachmentI is included in your response cell kit to help you deter-mine whether or not an aircraft must have a particularsystem operational to fly an air refueling mission. Thisdetermination is necessary because there are many Code 3discrepancies which may, in fact, be flyable.
a. When a question arises about whether an aircraftcan be flown without replacing a part which is zero balancein the WRSK:
(1). Get the first two digits of the WUC of thepart identified in the database. These two digits corres-pond with the digits in the "WUC" column in the MESL list-ing.
(2). Next, follow the row across the page to the'Conventional* column or "SIOP" column. An "X" in theappropriate column indicates that the system needs to beoperational to fly the conventional or SIOP mission. When anumber is listed in parentheses, go to the footnote withthat number. The footnote will tell you what the systemmust be capable of in order to be considered flyable.
b. It is important that operations and logisticspersonnel discuss system requirements when there is anyquestion about the flyability of an aircraft for discrepan-cies where a replacement part is not available. Many work-arounds must be used in a time of conflict. Consider thefeasibility of various alternatives to the problems. Youmay find, however, that cannibalization may be the onlyviable option.
B-11
IV. Initial Forms Set-up
1. All entries should be made in pencil so changes can bemade quickly and easily.
2. Figure B-3 shows the preferred charting symbols andsample documentation for CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2.
3. CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 are almost identical. CPX MXWorkshteet 2 is simply an extension of CPX MX Worksheet 1without the STARTEX (Start Exercise) data section.
4. CPX MX Worksheet 1 - STARTEX Data Section:
a. From the aircraft listing provided in your re-sponse cell bag, enter the aircraft tail numbers in the"Acft T.N." column and each aircraft's hours in the *AcftHrs" column.
b. Determine and enter each aircraft's STARTEX phaseand HPO hours from Table B-2 as follows:
(1) Go horizontally across the top of Table B-2to the column which matches the number of primary aircraftassigned (PAA) for your location. Then proceed down thd'column transcribing the phase and HPO hours for each air-
craft to the STAREX data section of the CPX MX Worksheet 1.The numbers were selected at random from uniform distri-butions to establish a standardized starting basis forexercise play.
(2) Improve your overall readiness by performingphase inspections or HPOs, as appropriate, at STARTEX onaircraft which are above the lower hour limits for theinspections to be performed (if your taskings will allow).
5. CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 - Timeline Section:
a. Post the date at the top of the worksheet.
b. Each number running across the top represents anhour on the 24 hour clock.
c. Document activity in this section using the sym-bols and example shown in Figure B-3. The best procedure isto tape these forms together to create a continuous horizon-tally-running scroll with the date at the top of each form.
B-12
-CH H OKSb4EU I-
STARTIM Oat.a Oat.. 6 p RI~tV MI1NTOWC AND 0 WLMULTY TIMELINK
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KEY TO TIMELINE DOCUMENTATION
(Sched T.0.) (ARCT) (Fuel Load) (Phase Hours) (Type Maintenance)
A4(Schad Lndg) (Sortie Times) (HPO Hours) -(Maint-Event Control Number)
KEY SYMBOLS TIMELINE LENGEND
A Aicrat LanchSched T.O. - Scheduled Takeoff Time*Aircraft Landing Sched Lndg - Scheduled Landing Time
V Aicrat aailbleARCT - Air Refueling Control Timefor tasking Fuel Load - Fuel Load Required for Mission
* Aircraft In NMC/ Sortie Time - Duration of Sortie In HoursCan Sttus Phase Hrs - Phase Inspection Hrs Accum.D -Aircraft Attrited HPO Hrs - Hourly Postf light Hrs Accum.(Air oss) Type Maint - Type of Maint. Being PerformedD -Aircraft Attritsd Maint Event Control Number - (From Database)
(Ground Lose)PF/TF - Pref light/Thruf light
Figure B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols
B-13
0 O 0 .40 M' M'U 0 T V N
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B-14
V. At STARTEX
1. During the exercise, please make comments directly onthe database, worksheets and information guides where thecomments apply. As you find problems or have suggestionsfor improving these documents, please write them down. Thisis probably the best and easiest way for us to know how tomake genuine improvements to the system.
2. Upon initiation of flying activity (STARTEX), the fol-lowing procedures will be used:
a. Plotting Sorties. When mission taskings are re-ceived and mission planning is complete, plot the sorties onthe CPX MX Worksheets 1 and/or 2 using the symbols andcharting technique shown in Figure B-3. The tanker planierwill provide you with the scheduled takeoff and landingtimes, air refueling control time (ARCT) , and sortie dura-tion. You will be concerned with four types of times whenplotting the aircraft timelines: 1) sortie time, 2) phaseand/or HPO times when applicable, 3) fix time, and lastly 4)preflight/thruflight times. The 4-hour preflight/thru-flight is used to account not only preflight/thruflights/postflights, but also refueling, and servicing.
(1) Determine which aircraft you will fly. Then,on the CPX MX Worksheet 1, draw an up-triangle (takeoff) atthe takeoff time and a down-triangle (landing) at the land-ing time of each aircraf't ybu select to fly. Connect thetriangles with a straight-line (timeline). Above and belowthe timeline post the scheduled takeoff and landing times,ARCT, and sortie duration as shown in Figure B-3.
(2) Determine each aircraft's accumulated phaseand HPO hours by adding the sortie duration to the previoushours accumulated and enter the totals on the timeline asshown in Figure B-3.
b. Plotting Maintenance Events. Starting with thefirst aircraft to land:
(1) On the CPX MX Worksheet 1 or 2, if any in-spections (HPO or Phase) are due, extend the timeline fromthe landing symbol (down-triangle) for the proper number ofhours and end the line with a slash. Identify the type ofinspection above the line and reset the appropriate hours to0.0. Show phase hours above the line and HPO hours belowthe line.
B-15
(2) Next, go to the first unassigned maintenanceevent in the database. A maintenance event is defined asall the lines of the database associated with a specific"maintenance event control number". The maintenance eventis unassigned until an aircraft T.N. is posted in the "AcftT.N-. column in the database.
(3) Post the tail number of the landing aircraftin the Acft T.N. column on the database.
(4) From the database, we select the longest "FixTime" associated with a Code 3 discrepancy. This is easilyidentified by an asterisk in the "Lndg Code" column. Thehours in the fix time column following the aaterisk will bethe maintenance fix time for the whole aircraft. Extend thetimeline for the fix time hours and post the "maintenanceevent control number' below the timeline as shown in FigureB-3. If there are no Code 3 discrepancy's listed, then nofix time hours are plotted. This is because the aircraft is"mission capable" even with Code 2 discrepancies. However,the maintenance event is still assigned to that aircraft andparts are consumed.
(5) Finally, extend the timeline.to show the 4-hour preflight/thruflight time and label it "PF/TF". At theend of the timeline accounting for PF/TF, place a circlesymbol (aircraft available for tasking) as shown in FigureB-3.
(6) Repeat the above steps each time a missiontasking is received. When plotting timelines and you cometo 2400 hours on one CPX MX worksheet, continue the plottingat 0000 hours on the succeeding CPX MX worksheet. You willfind after a little practice these procedures go very quick-ly and smoothly.
(7) Once the plotting is complete, it is easy to "provide the response cell team chief with projected aircraftavailability for each tasking period. If there are noentries on the timeline to the right of a circle, the air-craft is available for tasking beginning with the periodfollowing the one in which the circle is located..
c. Next, the availability of any needed parts shownin the database are checked using the current home unit WRSKli sting. Procedures in the preceding "Aircraft PArt-,"section should be followed. Ensure the appropriate LRC isnotified via message of parts shortages. Post the messagedate-time-group (DTG) to the database in the column titled
B-16
"Msg DTG" and monitor status. If an aircraft is not missioncapable (NMC) because it, is in *Cann" status, draw the boxsymbol shown in Figure B-3 on the timeline at the time theaircraft goes into NMC/Cann status.
d. From time to time you will receive Master Scenarioof Events Listing (MSEL) inputs. Some of the inputs willaffect your aircraft operations. When inputs are based ontime, use the longer of either the MSEL input or the data-base fix time, when applicable. If a conflict arises aboutwhich procedures to follow, the MSEL inputs and taskingagency communications take precedence over the aircraftmaintenance database. Don't confuse MSEL with MESL. TheMESL is the Minimum Essential Systems List covered in Sec-tion III.
e. Database used up? If all maintenance events areused in the course of the exercise, simply start over againstarting at maintenance event control number I.
B-17
WORKSHEET PLOTTING IN A NUTSHELL
- Refer to Figure B-3 for sample.
- Plot launch and landing symbols at thescheduled takeoff and landing times.Connect with a straight-line (timeline),
- Post scheduled takeoff and landing times,ARCT, and duration above and below thetimeline.
- Post new phase and HPO times by addingsortie duration to previous times.
- Extend timeline for inspections, if due.
- Post the aircraft T.N. to the databasefor the first unassigned maintenanceevent in the database.
- On the CPX MX Worksheet, extend the time-line plot for the fix time hours to theright of the asterisk (in the Lndg Codecolumn) for that maintenance event.
- Post the maintenance event control numberbelow the timeline as shown in Figure B-3.
- Extend timeline plot for the 4-hourpreflight/thruflight. Post a circle atthe end of the timeline.
- Check availability of needed parts inWRSK and reflect the consumption.
- Repeat above steps for each air:,raft.
Figure B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell
J
B-18
VI. During the Exercise
1. Special Database Events. To enhance exercise realism,late takeoffs, and air aborts are incorporated into thestructure of the database.
a. Late Takeoffs. Late takeoffs are identified in theremarks column in the Database. The amount of time theaircraft is delayed for takeoff is also identified. Fromthis information, operations personnel will be able todetermine if the aircraft can satisfactorily make its tim-ing. If it cannot, the mission is cancelled, unless earlierprovisions were made for a backup spare aircraft.
b. Air Aborts. Air aborts are also identified in theremarks column in the Database. The T/O + time of the abortis also identified. From this information, operationspersonnel can determine if the mission was effective. Todetermine the landing time of the aircraft, simply multiplythe T/O + time of the abort by 2 and add that time to theoriginal takeoff time. All other lines in the maintenanceevent apply upon landing.
2. Attrition. If you are informed that an aircraft hasbeen lost, mark the time and date the aircraft was lost onthe CPX MX Worksheet. Place the appropriate attritionsymbol at that point on the timeline and then line out theremainder of the row for that aircraft.
3. Additional/Replacement/Transit Aircraft. If addition-al, replacement, or transit aircraft are received by yourunit, handle them as follows.
a. Add the tail number of the additional and/or re-placement aircraft on the next open line on the CPX MXWorksheet 1 in the "Acft T.N." column.
b. Determine the phase and HPO hours for each of thenew aircraft by referring to Table B-2. Simply, start overat the top of the appropriate column and transcribe thehours to the CPX MX Worksheet.
c. Determine the landing condition from the next unas-signed maintenance event and plot the timeline for eachaircraft using the procedures in the preceding *AT STARTEX"section.
4. Flow of Events. As the exercise play progresses, keepthe following in the back of your mind. When flying actualcombat missions and logistically supporting those opera-
~B- 19
tions, few things ever go as planned. You can be sure youneed to expect the utexpected. Think and talk togetherabout the factors that influence a deployed unit's opera-tions which go beyond the scope of this database. Forexample, "How much time does it take to change fuel loads?What would ,?ou do if there was not enough time? What codethree discrepancies are actually flyable? Can a lost capa-bility on one aircraft be compensated by another aircraft ifflying in cell?* and so on. These are worthwhile considera-tions to think about in the course of the exercise.
5. Playing Multiple Locations. If you are responsible formore than one location during the exercise:
a. Keep a separate set of CPX MX Worksheets for eachlocation.
b. Use a separate database for each location.
c. Do not intermix events between locations.
J
J
B-20
VII. At ENDEX
No aircraft maintenance database can be totally free ofproblems and certainly this one is no exception. Therefore,we would like your inputs on how the database worked and howyou think it can be improved. Please take the time tocomplete the Database Evaluations. Areas for your commentsmay include the content and format of the Database, the CPXMX Worksheets, the procedures for using the database in theInformation Guide and any suggestions you may have toimprnl," aercise play from the logistics perspective. The
- are included in this package.
jr participation and cooperation.
B-21
Appendix C: Practice Database
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Appendix E: Evaluation Surveys
KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCELOGISTICS DATABASE
EVALUATION SURVEY 1
1. The KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Databaseand its associated worksheets and instructions were devel-oped to make response cell exercise play more realistic,place aircraft availability at more realistic levels, gener-ate realistic part demands and streamline logistics play.Therefore, i.t is very important to have your comments andcriticism on the new system and to know, in your opinion, ifit is reaching the goals as stated above. To do this effec-tively, we would like each of you who used the database, orwho would simply like to comment, to do two things.
2. First, during the mock exercise, please make commentsdirectly on the database, worksheets and the information.guides where comments apply. As you find problems or thingswhich could be improved write them down. This is probablythe best and easiest way to know how to make genuine im-provements to the new system.
3. Second, we would like your comments to the statementsand questions on the next two pages. (One evaluation fromeach person.) Please remember, it is your comments andopinions we are interested in, not what you think we wouldlike to hear. We will refer to the Aircraft MaintenanceLogistics Database as the "database"
4. You do not need to place your name anywhere on thisdatabase evaluation.
5. Using the scale shown at the top of the next two pages,please place the number which corresponds to your opinionabout each statement on the line preceding each statement.Please comment as to why you feel as you do in the spaceprovided. Your comments will be used to evaluate the effec-tiveness of the database and make whatever improvements maybe needed. Then, on the last page, respond to the last twocategorical questions.
E-I
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
1. The database helped make exercise play in theresponse cell more realistic.
Why or how?
2. The database makes it easy to get theinformation I need to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times.
Why or how9
3. - - The database makes it easy to get the infor-mation I need to determine the availability ofeach aircraft.
Why or how?
4. The database makes it easy for me to determinewhat repair parts I need when an aircraft lands.
Why or how?
5. Having the discrepancy associated with a givenpart requirement helped make the demands morerealistic.
Why or how?
6. Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a needed parthelped me locate the part in the WRSK listingand more easily identify the item in messagetraffic.
Why or how9
E-2
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
2 3 4_
7. .....- Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a needed parthelped me determine whether a part was essentialto fly a given mission and trackcannibalizations.
Why or how?
8. ------ The CPX MX Worksheets along with the newsymbols and charting technique streamlined thetracking of each aircraft's flying andmaintenance requirements.
Why or how?
9 ------ Working with the practice data base and othertraining materials adequately prepared me forusing the database during the exercise.
Why or how9
10. The information guide helped me understandmy job in the response cell and answered thequestions I had.
Why or how?
a. What information was not provided that wouldhave been helpful9
b. What information was provided that was notuseful or helpful?
E-3
Please answer the following quezsions by circling theletter that best applies to the appropriate response.
11. Have you, at any time in your military career,ever participated as a response cell member in aCommand Post Exercise (a military exercise inwhich the existence and movement of combat forcesare simulated)9
A. Yes.
B. No.
C. Not Sure.
(Please respond to Question 12 if you answered *YES* toQuestion number 11)
12. If your response to question 11 vas *YES,* whattype of model do you think was used during theCommand Post Exercise to simulate aircraft main-tenance and other logistic functions?
A. A historical airciaft maintenance databasemodel SIMILAR to the one used during the mockexercise.
B. Some other type of model (or data) NOT SIMI-LAR to the historical aircraft maintenancedatabase model used during the mock exercise.
C. Not sure whether the model used was a type ofhistorical aircraft maintenance databasemodel or some other type of model.
PLEASE USE THE REVERSE SIDEFOR YOUR ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AND OBSERVATTCNc
FF-4
EVALUATION SURVEY 2
COMPARISON BETWEEN LOGISTIC MODELS USED DURING CPX
1. This evaluation shall be completed only by those in-dividuals who have participated in a Command Post Exercise(CPX) as a response cell member sometime during their milit-ary career.
2. The response to each question should be based on a com-parison between the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Data-base Model used during the mock exercise, and aircraftmaintenance data used during your previous experience(s) asa response cell member during a Command Post Exercise (CPX).
IMPORTANT NOTE: Throughout the evaluation survey,the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Databasemodel shall be referred to as the "KC-135 DatabaseModel;" and the previous aircraft maintenance dataused during your CPX experience shall be referredto as the *Previous CPX Model."
3. You do not need to place your name anywhere on thisevaluation.
4. Using the scale shown at the top of the next two pages,please place the number which corresponds to your opinion onthe line preceding each statement. Then, comment as to whyyou feel as you do in the space provided.
E-5
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
1.--The KC-135A/E/R database model is more realisticthan the previous CPX model.
Why or how?
2. Aircraft maintenance data from the previous CPXmodel could be used to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times more easilythan using the KC-135 database model.
Why or how?
3. Aircraft maintenance data from the previous CPXmodel could be used to determine aircraft avail-ability more easily than using the KC-135 data-base model.
Why or how?
4. Aircraft maintenance discrepancies using theprevious CPX model was more realistic than usingthe KC-135 database model.
Why or how?
5. ------ Supply data (WUC, NSN, NOUN) for a needed partwas easie - to find using the previous CPX modelthan it was using the KC-135 database model.
Why or how?
E-6
Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree
1 2 3 4 5
6. The previous CPX model made it easier todeter-.ine if a part was essential to fly a givenmission than does the KC-135 database model.
Why or how?
7. Aircraft flying and maintenance requirements areeasier to track during exercise play using theprevious CPX model than using the KC-135 data-base model.
Why or how?
8. ------ I was better trained on the procedures necessaryto carry out my duties as a response cell memberusing the previous CPX model than I was usingthe KC-135 database model.
Why or how?
PLEASE USE THE REVERSE SIDEFOR YOUR ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS
E-7
Appendix F: Training Session Slides
KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE
PURPOSE
The database and. associated materials aredesigned to help response cells maintain
aircraft availability at realistic levels,generate demands for parts, and provideimproved realism during command post
exercises involving the KC-135A/E/R aircraft
Figure F-i. KC-135A/E/R Aircraft MaintenanceDatabase Purpose
F-i
I
PHASE INSPECTION REQUIREMENTS
-Due every 200 /-20 (180 to 220) flying hours (sincelast phase).
-Takes 31 hours to complete.
-Use the longer of either the 31-hour phase time or thedatabase fix time and then add the 4-hour preflight/thruf light.
-Reset the aircraft's phase hours to 0.0 hours(accumulated).
-Aircraft i$ flushable if less than 2 or more than 10hours from phase start time.
Figur'e F-2. Phase Inspection Requirements
F- 2
HPO INSPECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Due every 50 +/- 5 (45 to 55) flying hours (since lastHPO or phase).
- Takes two hours to complete.
- The database fix time and the 4-hour preflight/thruflight times are added to the 2-hour HPO.
- Reset HPO hours to 0.0 when:
-- An HPO Inspection is completed.
-- A phase Inspection is completed(HPO Is an Integral part of phase).
Figure F-3. HPO Inspection Requirements
F-3
WORKSHEET PLOTTING REQUIREMENTS
- Refer to Figure B-3 In Information guide for sample.
- Plot launch and landing symbols at the scheduledtakeoff and landing times. Connect with a straightline(timeline).
- Post scheduled takeoff and landing times, ARCT, fuelload, and sortie duration above and below the timeline.
- Post new phase and HPO times by adding sortie durationto previous times.
- Extend timeline for Inspection, if due.
(Continued)
Figure F-4. Worksheet Plotting Requirements
F-4
WORKSHEET PLOTTING REQUIREMENTS(Continued)
- Post the aircraft T.N. to the database for the firstunassigned maintenance event.
- On the CPX MX Worksheet 1 and/or 2, extend the time-line plot for the number of fix hours to the right ofthe asterisk in the Lndg Code column.
- Post the maintenance event control number below thetimeline as shown in Figure B-3.
- Extend the plot for the 4-hour preflight/thruflight.Post a circle at the end of the timeline.
- Check the availability of needed parts in WRSK andreflect the consumption.
Repeat above steps for each aircraft as required.
Figure F-5. Worksheet Plotting Requirements (Continued)
F-5
KEY TO TIMELINE DOCUMENTATION
(Sched T.O.) (ARCT) (Fuel 1.9ad) (Phase Hours) (Type Maint)
(ached Lado) (Sortie Time) (HPO Hours) (Maint Event Control Number)
KEYSYMOLSTIMELINE LENGENDA - Aircraft Launch Sched T.O. - Scheduled Takeoff Time
- Aircraft Landing Sched Lndg - Scheduled Landing TimeAirrat valaleAROT - Air Refueling Control Time
W for tasking Fuel Load - Fuel Load Required for Mission* -Aircraft In NMC/ Sortie Time - Duration of Sortie In Hours
Cann Status Phase I-rs - Phase Inspection H-rs Accum.D Ircat Attrited HPO Hre - Hourly Postf light Hra Accum.[A] ( Arlara~ss) Type Maint - Type of Maint. Being PerformedD -Aircraft Attrited Maint Event Control Number - (From Database)
(Grond Lse) PF/TF - Pref light/Thruf light
Figure F-6. Key To Timeline Documentation
F-6
BACKGROUND
- Improve realism in command post exercises (CPX)
- Typical models used to provide realism in CPX:
-- Percentage based models
-- Random number generator models
- The historical database model
Figure F-7. Background
F-7
OBJECTIVES
- Evaluate whether the KC-135 database model provides
response cell members with the needed information to:
-- maintain aircraft availability at realistic levels
-- generate realistic demand for parts
-- improve realism during CPXs
- Evaluate the utility of the Information Guide as astand alone" document to support the database model
Figure F-8. Objectives
F-8
EXERCISE SUPPORT MATERIAL
-Information Guide
-- MESL
-- Practice Database
-- Copy of CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2
- KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Database
- WRSK Listing
- CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2
- Message forms
- Task Incompletion forms
Figure F-9. Exercise Support Material
F-9
Appendix G: Mock Exercise Team Mission Tasking Orders
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 1
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
20 Apr 1 0100 0700 6 0330 04.15 140K
2 0100 0700 6 0335 0420 140K
3 0200 0900 7 0330 0415 150K
4 0200 0900 7 0335 0420 150K
5 0300 1100 8 0415 0730 160K
6 0300 1100 8 0420 0735 160K
G- 1
MISSION TASKING ORDER
.AM 1
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Soy-tie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --3 0- - - K
21 Apr 1 0000 0500 5 0230 80K
2 0000 0500 5 0235 80K
3 0100 0800 7 0230 0400 120K
4 0100 0800 7 0235 0405 120K
5 0200 1100 9 0400 0630 0800 180K
6 0200 1100 9 0405 0635 0835 180K1
G
G-2
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 2
Take- Aii. RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
20 Apr 1 0100 0600 5 0245 80K
2 0100 0600 5 0250 80K
3 0200 0800 6 0400 0630 100K
4 0200 0800 6 0405. 0635 100K
5 0300 1000 7 0715 0800 130K
6 0300 1000 7 0720 0805 130K
7 0400 1200 8 0715 0800 0900 180K
8 0400 1200 8 0720 0805 0905 180K
G-3
MI.SION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 2
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
21 Apr 1 0000 0400 4 0145 70K
2 0000 0400 4 0150 70K
3 0100 0600 5 0255 80K
4 0100 0600 5 0300 80K
5 0200 0800 6 0500 100K
6 0200 0800 6 0505 100K
7 0300 1000 7 0600 0700 1301<
8 0300 1000 7 0605 0705 130K
G-4
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 3
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
20 Apr 1 0100 0600 5 0250 80K
2 0100 0600 5 0255 80K
3 0100 0600 5 0300 80K
4 0200 0800 6 0415 0510 120K
5 0200 0800 6 0420 0515 120K
6 0200 0800 6 0430 0520 120K
7 0300 1000 7 0445 0525 0655 170K
8 0300 1000 7 0450 0530 0700 170K
9 0300 1000 7 0455 0535 0705 170K
G
0-5
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 3
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0225 0310 0355 180K
2 0000 0600 6 0230 0315 0400 180K
3 0000 0600 6 0235 0320 0405 180K
4 0200 0800 6 0510 0630 150K
5 0200 0800 6 0515 0635 150K
6 0200 0800 6 0520 0640 150K
7 0400 1000 6 0710 120K
8 04d0 1000 6 0715 120K
9 0400 1000 6 0720 120K
G-6
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 4
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
20 Apr 1 0100 0500 4 0255 70K
2 0100 0500 4 0300 70K
3 0100 0500 4 0305 70K
4 0200 0700 5 0410 90K
5 0200 0700 5 0415 90K
5 0200 0700 5 0420 90K
7 0300 0900 6 0520 0640 150K
7 0300 0900 6 0525 0645 150K
0400 1100 7 0555 0705 0840 180K
10 0400 1100 7 0600 0710 0845 180K
G-7
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 4
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0300 120K
2 0000 0600 6 0305 120K
3 0100 0700 6 0400 120K
4 0100 0700 6 0405 120K
5 0400 1000 6 0710 0805 150K
6 0400 1000 6 0715 0810 150K
7 0400 1000 6 0720 0815 150K
8 0600 1200 6 0850 1000 1501
9 0600 1200 6 0855 1005 150K
10 0600 1200 6 0900 1110 150K
G-8
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM R
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
20 Apr 1 0100 0500 4 0255 70K
2 0100 0500 4 0300 70K
3 0100 0500 4 0310 70K
4 0200 0700 5 0420 90K
5 0200 0700 5 0425 90K
6 0200 0700 5 0430 90K
7 0300 0900 6 0520 0630 140K
8 0300 0900 6 0525 0635 140K
9 0300 0900 6 0530 0640 140K
10 0400 1100 7 0750 0830 150K
11 0400 1100 7 0755 0835 150K
12 0400 1100 7 0800 0840 150K
13 0500 1300 8 0710 0900 1015 180K
14 0500 1300 8 0715 0905 1020 180K
G-9
MISSION TASKING ORDER
TEAM 5
Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel
Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load
21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0255 100K
2 0000 0600 6 0300 100K
3 0200 0800 6 0455 100K
4 0200 0800 6 0500 100K
5 0400 1000 6 0555 100K
6 0400 1000 6 0600 100K
7 0600 1200 6 0925 1005 150K
8 0600 1200 6 0930 1010 150K
8 0600 1200 6 0935 1015 150K
10 0800 1400 6 1100 1210 150K
10 0800 1400 6 1105 1215 150K
12 0800 1400 6 1110 1230 150K
G-10
Bibliography
Bartlow, Col Gene S. 'The Operator-Logistician Disconnect,'Airpower Journal, 3: 23-37 (Fall 1988).
Clausewitz, Karl V. On War. Washington DC: InfantryJournal Press, 1950.
Department of Defense. Dictionary of Military andAssociated Terms. JCS Publication 1. Washington DC:Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1 June 1987.
Eccles, RADM (Ret) Henry E. 'Strategy Flexibility andkLogistics,' Logistics Spectrum,8: 19-23 (Summer 1982).
------ Logistics in the National Defense. Harrisburg PA:The Stackpole Company, 1959.
Emory, William C. Business Research Methods (ThirdEdition). Homewood IL: Irwin, 1985.
Furlong, Raymond B. "Clausewitz and Modern War Gaming,'Air University Review, 35: 4-7 (July-August 1984).
Gorby, Maj James D. *Air Force Logistics Doctrine,*Air Force Journal of Logistics, 9: 24-30 (Winter1980).
Hagel, Maj Stephen J. Realism in Exercises. MS Thesis,AFIT/GLM/LSG/89S-26. School of Systems and Logistics,Air Force Institute of Technology (AU), Wright-Patterson AFB OH, September 1989 (AD-A215362).
Hall, Capt Russell S. Improving Logistics Realism inCommand Post Exercises. MS Thesis, AFIT/GLM/L. 3/89S-30. School of Systems and Logistics, Air ForceInstitute of Technology (AU), Wright-Patterson AFB OH,September 1989 (AD-B138828).
----- and Lt Col Phillip E. Miller. 'Integrating LogisticsReality Into Command Post Exercises,* Air Force Journalof Logistics, 14: 33-36 (Winter 1990).
Headquarters, USAF/LEXX. *Joint Logistics Board (JLB)Sustainability." Electronic Message. 102025Z,November 1988.
BIB-i
Heflin, Woodford Agee. The United States Air ForceDictionary. Washington DC: Air University Press,1956.
Heinl, Col Robert Debs, Jr. Dictionary of Militaryand Naval Quotations. Annapolis MD: U.S. NavalInstitute, 1967.
Hoover, Lt Col Ronald D. "Logistics Realism in Exercises.*Air Force Journal of Logistics, 8: 27-29 (Winter1984). (
McCann, Col John A. (ED). Compendium of AuthenticatedSystems and Logistics Terms, Definitions and Acronyms.AU/AFIT/LS/3/81. School of Systems and Logistics, AirForce Institute of Technology (AI), Wright-PattersonAFB OH, 1981 (AD-AO0655).
McCarty, Lt Col Deryl S. War Games and Logistics. Air WarCollege research report, April 1988 (AU-AWC-88-169).
McClave James T. and P. George Benson. Statistics forBusiness and Economics (Fourth Edition). San FranciscoCA: Dellen Publishing Company, 1988.
Melos, Lt Cmdr John. "Exercises in Wishful Thinking" ArmedForces Journal International, 125: 76-77 (April 1988).
Ogan, Capt Andrew J. "What About Logistics,: Air ForceJournal of Logistics, 7: 21-23 (Summer 1983).
Peppers, Jerome G., Jr. *Logistics and Strategy," LogisticsSpectrum, 20: 13-17 (Winter 1986).
Perla, Peter P. and Lt Cmdr Raymond T. Barrett. "WhatWargaming Is and Is Not," Naval War College Review,XX1I: 70-78 (September-October 1985).
Perry, M.j Gregg T. "The Limitations of JCS Exercises,"ALt'iift, 9: 4-9 (Winter 1987).
Quick, Jtshi. Dictionary of Weapons and Military Terms. PbLrke;ey CA: McGraw Hill Book Company, 1973.
Russo, Capt Anthony J. An Evaluation oi a ManagementWargame and the Factors Affecting Game Performance. MSThesis, AFIT/GSM/LS/87S-28. School of Systems andLogistics, Air Force Institute of Technology (AU),Wright-Patterson A n OH, September 1987 (AD-AI86962).
BIB-2
Vita
Captain Lyndon S. Anderson was born on 1 March 1958 in
Sarasota, Florida. He enlisted in the United States Air
Force in March 1981 and was later assigned to F. E. Warren
AFB, Wyoming, as a Missile System's Analyst for the Minute-
man III Nuclear Weapon System. He worked as an Electro-
mechanical Team Chief, and later as a Master Inspector/Eval-
uator in the Maintenance Deputate's Quality Assurance
Division. He earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in In-
dustrial Technology from Southern Illinois University in
June 1983. He was commissioned through the USAF Officer
Training School in March 1985. Upon graduation from the
Aircraft Maintenance Officer's Course, he was assigned to
Carswell AFB, Texas. Some of his duties included Officer-
in-Charge (OIC) of the wing's KC-135A Tanker Branch and
B-52H Bomber Branch. Following the incorporation of the
Readiness Oriented Logistic System (ROLS) maintenance con-
cept, his duties included QIC of the newly formed Special-
ist Branch and Bomber Maintenance Unit. He later worked as
the squadron's Assistant Maintenance Supervisor until enter-
ing the School of Systems and Logistics at the Air Force
Institute of Technology in June 1989. Upon graduation, he
will be assigned to the Air Force Logistics Management
Center at Gunter AFB, Alabama.
Permanent Address: 4417 Pepper Ave.Montgomery, AL 36109
VIT-1
Form ApprovedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188
Public re orting burden for this collection of information is estimat.o to average I hour der rescorse, nctuaing the tine for reu-ew.ng instrucions, searching exsting data sources.gathering and maintaining the data needed, and comoleting and reviewing the oliection of information Send komments regaroing this burden estimate or any -r aspect of thiscollection of information, including suggestion, for reduung this ournen to hashington Headquarter Sei ices, Directorate for .nformation Olperations and Rep( 12 5 jeffersonOavis Highwa. Suite 1204. Arlington, vA 2202.4302. And to the Offike f %anagement and Budget, NP er,.or Reduction Pro t (0704-0188), Vashington, DC -.. 3
1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
I September 1990 1 Master's Thesis4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Improving Logistics Realism In Command 5. FUNDING NUMBERS
Post Exercises Involving The KC-135A/E/R Aircraft UsingA Historical Aircraft Maintenance Database Model
6. AUTHOR(S)
Lyndon S. Anderson, Captain,..USAF
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBERAir Force Institute of Technology, WPAFB OH 45433-6583
AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/ MONITORINGAGENCY REPORT NUMBER
11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
13. ABSTRACT (Maximum'200words) This study, under the sponsorship of HQ SAC/LGL, investigated
a method to improve realism in Command Post Exercises (CPX) involving the KC-135A/E/Raircraft by developing a historical database model. The model is based on the pre-mise that realistic data collected from actual war-like missions can be placed in adatabase for use by response cell members to provide simulated, yet realistic, logis-tical requirements during CPXs. European Tanker Task Force flying mission data wasused as source data for the development of the model. Associated documentation wasalso developed to support the model. A mock exercise simulating a CPX was used totest the model and its associated documentation. Analysis of the test results leadthe researcher to conclude that the model provides response cell members with a use-ful tool to obtain realistic logistical information they need to carry out theirduties effectively. Recommendations include using the model and documentation asrequired by HQ SAC/LGL, and conducting further research to test the hypothesis thathistorical database models improves realism at the response cell level during CPXs.
14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGESMilitary Exercise(s) Database(s) Simulation(s) Logistics 220Military Operation(s) War Games) 16. PRICE CODE
17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified ULNSN 7540.01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev 2-89)
Prescribed by ANSI Std 139.18298-102