corn outlook
DESCRIPTION
Corn Outlook. Industry Outlook Conference West Des Moines, Iowa Apr. 22, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13. Corn Acreage. Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Outlook
Industry Outlook ConferenceWest Des Moines, Iowa
Apr. 22, 2014
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 91.7
Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 165.3
Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,938
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,331
Imports (mil. bu.) 28 29 162 35 25
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,294
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 5,400
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,000 5,000
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 1,430
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,834 1,543 731 1,750 1,550
Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,450 13,380
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,331 1,914
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.60 3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2014 Intended acresBottom: Change from 2013Units: 1,000 acres
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Time between Survey & Planting
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Advance Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 4/18/2014
4.68
4.78
4.72
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Prices vs. Costs
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2013/14 Crop Prices
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2014/15 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC
3-Month Temperature Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2014 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so goodAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer termDry soils to start, but El Niño watch for summer
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
USDA
Unofficial
2013/14
Futures
(4/18/14)
2014/15
Futures
(4/18/14)
Corn $4.60 $3.90 $4.68 $4.78
Soybeans $13.00 $9.65 $13.21 $12.07
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/