coronavirus impact - ciceron€¦ · 2 | coronavirus impact on the us digital advertising market...

CORONAVIRUS

IMPACT On the US Digital

Advertising market

2 | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON THE US DIGITAL ADVERTISING MARKET

All data from Pathmatics Explorer as of march 19 2020. Explorer tracks digital ads across desktop display, desktop video, mobile display, mobile video, facebook, and twitter.

State Of The MarketGlobal Pandemic: It used to be a term reserved for movie plots and thriller novels. However, in only 3 months, the Coronavirus (COVID-19), has dominated the news cycle and become ingrained in our daily lives. From a single alert on December 31st, 2019 in Wuhan, China, to outbreaks in 168 countries/regions to date, it has changed everything from our individual routines, to our social interactions, to how we behave as a society.

There’s no question that advertisers, marketers, agencies and publishers will feel the effects of our disrupted economy. So, while everyone is sheltered in place, our teams are working tirelessly to understand how, when, where, and why these unprecedented changes are impacting digital advertising.

Using data from Pathmatics Explorer, we looked at thousands of advertisers and publishers across over 20 industries and six digital channels to bring you the latest on digital advertising during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CORONAVIRUS

IMPACT On the US Digital

Advertising market

Read on to check out our findings.

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In the US, response to Coronavirus fears could reduce total 2020 marketing communications investments by as much as $11 billion, according to a new analysis of 62 marketing and media categories from The Myers Report.

It’s not all bad, though. While original predictions for 2020 advertising growth forecasted a 6.2% increase over 2019, updated estimates still show a 4.8% increase—not too shabby for a year marked by a global pandemic.

Accordingly, Data from Pathmatics Explorer shows how advertisers have taken notice of the growing pandemic. As early as December of 2019, we began to see coronavirus-adjacent keywords popup in creatives. While early keyword usage could be attributed to normal flu season marketing, 2020 spikes in Coronavirus, and increasingly, quarantine, show a clear trend.

Impact On US Advertising Market



Reaching Consumers In A Stay-at-home Economy

As consumers have shifted to consuming digital media from their homes, desktop display and video ads have surged, with consumers seeing nearly 25% more ads on desktop devices since March 7th.

180M

160M

140M

120M

100M

80M

60M

40M

20M

0

DEC 1 ‘19

DEC 8 ‘19

DEC 15 ‘19

DEC 22 ‘19

DEC 29 ‘19

JAN 5 ‘20

JAN 12 ‘20

JAN 19 ‘20

JAN 26 ‘20FEB 2 ‘20

FEB 9 ‘20

FEB 16 ‘20

FEB 23 ‘20

MAR 1 ‘20

MAR 8 ‘20

MAR 15 ‘20

ANTIVIRAL CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC QUARANTINE VIRUS

COVID-19 Keywords Impressions





WASHINGTON: Confirmed Cases: 1076Ads 15%

NEW YORK:Confirmed Cases: 1076Ads 90%

CALIFORNIA:Confirmed Cases: 598Ads 15%

Among publishers, news sites and Medical resource websites are the biggest early beneficiaries COVID-19 outbreak in terms of ads served. In March, the number of ads served on these sites skyrocketed in comparison with January and February. Sports sites, which have suffered from the swift cancellation of games across disciplines, have seen drops both in traffic and ads served.

Publisher Impact

Digital Ads Served In March By Publisher

SPORTSSITES

SPORTS.YAHOO.COM

-27%

FOXNEWS.COM

+40%

ESPN.COM

-13%

NYTIMES.COM

+40%

WEBMD.COM

+20%

NBA.COM

-35%

CNN.COM

+90%

HEALTHLINE.COM

+20%

NEWS

MEDICAL RESOURCES

By state, the numbers also vary widely. Of the three states hit the hardest by Coronavirus at time of publication, only one of them—New York State—saw a significant uptick in digital ads.





Our research shows that most verticals have kept digital advertising spend consistent through these tough times. But a few key verticals have significantly changed their investment strategy in a response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

When looking at three of the most affected categories, we saw that compared to 2019, CPG spending has remained relatively stable, while sports and travel have both taken significant hits.

The Advertiser Response

Which Industries Were Hit The Hardest?

26%TRAVEL

25%Arts & EntertainmentSports

27%

Consumerpackaged

goods

Sports

Travel

JAN 01JAN 08

JAN 15JAN 22

JAN 29FEB 05

FEB 12FEB 19

FEB 26MAR 04

MAR 11MAR 18

2019 2020

Spend change by category





Travel companies have been some of the hardest hit by the virus, due in part to fears of spreading germs and in part to increasing travel bans and shelter in place mandates. As of mid-March, nearly 10 major companies—many of them cruise lines—had pulled digital advertising spend completely.

As for airlines, strategies have varied. Korean Air stopped spending completely in early March (as shown above), while United Airlines has taken a different approach entirely.

In early March, United pulled nearly all digital advertising for 4 days, and then, came back with a completely new message touting flexibility.

Travel takes a hit

United ads 1/1/20-2/28/20

United ads beginning 3/4/20

DAILY SPEND DAILY IMPRESSIONS

Overview for United air Lines, Inc.

43%

4%

50%

3%

DESKTOP DISPLAY MOBILE DISPLAY MOBILE VIDEO

DESKTOP VIDEO FACEBOOK TWITTER

$35K

$25K

$15K

$5K

$0

FEB 10FEB 23

FEB 29MAR 04

MAR 09MAR 14

MAR 18


Advertiser Comparison: Travel

$180K

$140K

$100K

$50K

$20K

$0

FEB 18FEB 23

FEB 28MAR 04

MAR 09MAR 14

MAR 18

DESKTOP DISPLAY$1M

KOREAN AIR$587K

MELIA HOTELS INT. GROUP$381K

VIRGIN CRUISES INTER. LTD.$379K

AMERICAN CUISE LINES$375K

NORWEGIAN CUISE LINES$2.4M

AIRBNB, INC.$798K

VIKING CRUISES$949K

ROCKHOUSE HOTEL & SPA$494K





With NBA, NFL, and MLS seasons cut short, and MLB postponing their season, digital ad budgets have also been halted. Overall, the sports category has seen a decrease of 25% in average daily spend since March 12th (compared to the previous 30 days).

Advertisers with live action performances including Cirque Du Soleil, Shen Yun Performing Arts, and Disney Theatrical Group all had huge drop-offs in spend starting on 3/13. Additionally, as movie theatre closures cause studios to rethink their strategies, many recently released and upcoming movies have cut spending completely.

Lights out on Entertainment


Advertiser Comparison: Sports

$140K

$100K

$60K

$20K

$20K$0

FEB 18FEB 23

FEB 28MAR 04

MAR 09MAR 14

MAR 18

NBA$1.9M

MAJOR LEAGE SOCCER, L.L.C. (MLS)$740K

MLB ADVANCED MEDIA, L.P.$1.3M

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE (NHL) ENTERPRISES$2.4M


Advertiser Comparison: Entertainment

$180K

$140K

$100K

$60K

$20K

$20K$0

FEB 18FEB 23

FEB 28MAR 04

MAR 09MAR 14

MAR 18

DISNEY THEATRICAL GROUP$505K

CIRQUE DU SOLEIL$2.4M

SHEN YUN PERFORMING ARTS$1.6M

FIELD ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (FEI)$821K

FANDAGO MEDIA, LLC$575K





CPG holds steady

While brands like SC Johnson, Procter and Gamble (P&G) and Clorox have found themselves in a unique position, owning many of the products that are suddenly in high demand, we haven’t seen much change from these brands’ ad spend overall—with a few exceptions.

Take The Clorox Company: While we do see significant spikes in spend on March 12 and 16th, their creatives didn’t change at all.

How Advertisers are Adapting?


Overview for The Clorox Company

21%

1%

8%

10%

49%

12%

$180K

$140K

$100K

$60K

$20K$0

FEB 10FEB 23

FEB 29MAR 04

MAR 09MAR 14

MAR 18

DESKTOP DISPLAY MOBILE DISPLAY MOBILE VIDEO DESKTOP VIDEO FACEBOOK TWITTER





Similarly, P&G has unwittingly hit a gold mine, as droves of people suddenly realized they needed to stock up on Charmin. Interestingly, P&G appears to want no part of this new craze, dropping their spend on Twitter to 0 in recent weeks. No need to advertise for a product that’s already flying off the shelves.

JAN 01

$11K

MAR 18

TRENDIMPRESSIONS

58,065,800$294,400

CREATIVE SPEND


Overview for Procter & Gamble

8%5%

2%

55%

27%

3%

$1.8M

$1.4M

$1M

$600K

$200K

$0

JAN 01JAN 14

JAN 27FEB 09

FEB 22MAR 06 MAR 18

DESKTOP DISPLAY MOBILE DISPLAY MOBILE VIDEO DESKTOP VIDEO FACEBOOK TWITTER

$525,400FEB 14

However, P&G’s overall spend has remained somewhat constant, with brands like Gillette, Pantene and Dawn Dish Soap holding steady since the beginning of the year.





As restaurants are increasingly forced to shift from dine-in to take-out and delivery only, fast-food establishments like McDonalds, Taco Bell, and Wendy’s have changed their digital creatives to market their new business models. Since many major city closure announcements on March 15th, the number of creatives released by these companies have spiked, especially with McDonalds.

Creatives themselves have also changed, with McDonalds now touting its “McDelivery”, and Wendy’s “You don’t have to go out for a hot deal on breakfast,” both leveraging cross promotions for DoorDash’s delivery service as well as GrubHub for Taco Bell.

Fast Food Takes on A Whole New Meaning

NUMBER OF CREATIVES


Overview

MCDONALD’S

55%$1.1M

WENDY’S

21%$423K

TACO BELL

23%$468K

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

MCDONALD’S WENDY’SRESTAURANT

TACO BELL(YUM! BRANDS)




Historical Comparison

$700K

$500K

$300K

$100K

MAR 13MAR 14

MAR 15MAR 16

MAR 17MAR 18

MAR 19

HULU NETFLIX STARZ ENTERTAINMENT, LLC$2.3M $2.6M $3.6M

$402,400MAR 16



You may have noticed the Grubhub and DoorDash mentions in these creatives. We expected these delivery advertisers to ramp up spending, but if we compare each service in the last 7 days, all have significantly dropped off. The reason - the restaurants are marketing for them.

Just like Fast Food, Streaming has significantly inflated their ad spend in the last 7 days, prepping for the influx of binge watching that would otherwise only be reserved for weekends and late nights.

Streaming services like Starz and Hulu are markedly releasing new ads, Hulu reminding us we can watch the news through their platform, while Starz trumpets, “The Show Must Go On!”

Streaming Services Save the Day


Historical Comparison

$130K

$110K

$90K

$70K

$50K

$30K

$10K

MAR 13MAR 14

MAR 15MAR 16

MAR 17MAR 18

MAR 19

DOORDASH, INC. POSTMATES INC. GRUBHUB, INC.



About Pathmatics Pathmatics turns the world’s marketing data into actionable insights. As consumption rapidly shifts to digital, media decisions have become complex and opaque. Pathmatics Explorer, the Pathmatics marketing intelligence platform, creates trust and transparency, bringing visibility into the digital ad performance of brands, their competitors, and entire industries across display, social, video, mobile, and native advertising data. Brands and agencies get access to the creative used by all advertisers, spend and impression data, and path from publisher to viewer, empowering them to minimize waste from their budgets, better position their marketing, and predict the next moves of their competitors. Pathmatics data powers Nielsen’s digital ad intelligence offering, Kantar Media’s Facebook intelligence, and is used by agencies like Mindshare, Mediacom and Possible. Founded in 2011, Pathmatics is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and backed by Upfront Ventures, BDMI, and Baroda Ventures.

As the virus and social distancing become more impactful, we’ll get a broader picture of who pulls back and who ramps up. Our only frame of reference is the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918-19, and let’s be honest, that digital ad data isn’t the most reliable. :)

What we do know, is that as the news cycle changes, almost hourly, so does consumer and advertiser behavior. And we remain committed to analyzing the data as it happens, to bring you the useful insights you need. So, everyone please stay safe - we’re all in this together.

What’s next for advertising and COVID-19?

For more COVID-19 insights:

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https://ww-w.linke-din.com/-compa-ny/path-matics-inc/

https://in-fo.pathmat-ics.com/get-your-free-da-ta-sampleRequest a free insights report



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