Sheet4SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.9497656555R Square0.9020548003Adjusted R Square0.8991740591Standard Error19.8569989049Observations36ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1123468.424550769123468.424550769313.13288757790Residual3413406.2137873697394.3004055109Total35136874.638338139

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept94.393648936.759347390613.964905704080.6570023865108.130295473580.6570023865108.1302954735X Variable 15.63744660820.31857970117.695561239404.99001476386.28487845264.99001476386.2848784526

Sheet6SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.060612368R Square0.0036738592Adjusted R Square-0.0256298509Standard Error0.0859258832Observations36ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00092565230.00092565230.12537180950.7254663291Residual340.25103075180.0073832574Total350.2519564041

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.94959315480.1430790296.63684371990.00000012980.65882158551.24036472420.65882158551.2403647242X Variable 1 0.00022462840.35407881820.7254663291-0.00037696370.000536036-0.00037696370.000536036

Sheet7SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.7946406115R Square0.6314537015Adjusted R Square0.6206141044Standard Error39.8259243041Observations36ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression192397.475291943992397.475291943958.25435212440.0000000072Residual3453927.54438699931586.1042466764Total35146325.019678943

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept268.499985009348.31430607085.55735985560.00000324170.31350233366.6864676886170.31350233366.6864676886X Variable 10.57604426370.07547300957.63245387310.00000000720.42266465540.72942387210.42266465540.7294238721

Sheet8SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.060612368R Square0.0036738592Adjusted R Square-0.0256298509Standard Error0.0859258832Observations36ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00092565230.00092565230.12537180950.7254663291Residual340.25103075180.0073832574Total350.2519564041

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.94959315480.1430790296.63684371990.00000012980.65882158551.24036472420.65882158551.2403647242X Variable 10.00007953620.00022462840.35407881820.7254663291-0.00037696370.000536036-0.00037696370.000536036

Sheet1YearQuarterProductionProduction+IdFour quarter totalFour quuarter moving averageCentered moving averageSpecific seasonal index2004Winter90103

Spring859833383.25Summer566986.3750.798842257635889.5Fall102115901.277777777836290.52005Winter11512891.1251.404663923236791.75Spring8910292.751.099730458237593.75Summer61741000.74425106.25Fall110123108.8751.1297359357446111.52006Winter165178116.1251.5328310011483120.75Spring1101231380.8913043478621155.25Summer98111159.750.6948356808657164.25Fall248261168.251.5512630015689172.252007Winter201214173.751.2316546763701175.25Spring142155178.50.8683473389727181.75Summer1101231880.6542553191777194.25Fall274287197.1251.45592897918002002008Winter251264201.8751.3077399381815203.75Spring165178207.6250.8573148706846211.5Summer125138210.250.6563614744836209Fall305318208.1251.5279279279829207.252009Winter241254208.1251.2204204204836209Spring158171208.250.8211284514830207.5Summer132145210.50.6888361045854213.5Fall299312216.8751.4386167147881220.252010Winter265278221.51.2550790068891222.75Spring1851982270.872246696925231.25Summer142155233.3750.664167113942235.5Fall333346234.251.4770544299322332011Winter282295234.8751.2559872272947236.75Spring175188238.8750.7870225013964241Summer1571702420.7024793388972243Fall350363246.251.4741116751998249.52012Winter290303253.251.19644619941028257Spring201214263.250.81291547961078269.5Summer187200

Fall400413

Seasonal Index For Each QuarterYearWinterSpringSummerFall20040.79884225761.277777777820051.40466392321.09973045820.741.129735935720061.53283100110.89130434780.69483568081.551263001520071.23165467630.86834733890.65425531911.455928979120081.30773993810.85731487060.65636147441.527927927920091.22042042040.82112845140.68883610451.438616714720101.25507900680.8722466960.6641671131.47705442920111.25598722720.78702250130.70247933881.474111675120121.19644619940.8129154796

Total10.40482239247.01001014386.650279685611.3324164408Mean1.30060279910.8762512680.83128496071.41655205514.4246910828CF0.9040179134Adjusted1.17576822850.79214684290.75149649561.2805884334Index117.57682285279.214684286475.1496495587128.0588433028Calculations For Deseasonalized Production YearQuarterProductionProduction + IDSeasonal IndexDeseasonalized ProductionCoded Quarter 2004Winter905381.0595205717507.77683261131Spring855330.9496999693561.22988019852Summer565040.8907956205565.78634696683Fall1025501.0999838385500.007346249142005Winter1155631.0595205717531.37241033495Spring895370.9496999693565.44173671036Summer615090.8907956205571.39930675827Fall1105581.0999838385507.280180376482006Winter1656131.0595205717578.5635657829Spring1105580.9496999693587.553983397310Summer985460.8907956205612.935209214111Fall2486961.0999838385632.7365690716122007Winter2016491.0595205717612.54119770413Spring1425900.9496999693621.248835491714Summer1105580.8907956205626.406312713315Fall2747221.0999838385656.3732799852162008Winter2516991.0595205717659.732353151117Spring1656130.9496999693645.467010434618Summer1255730.8907956205643.245192087319Fall3057531.0999838385684.5555122283202009Winter2416891.0595205717650.294122061721Spring1586060.9496999693638.09626153922Summer1325800.8907956205651.103335795223Fall2997471.0999838385679.1008866329242010Winter2657131.0595205717672.945876676325Spring1856330.9496999693666.526292993726Summer1425900.8907956205662.329255377927Fall3337811.0999838385710.0104316737282011Winter2827301.0595205717688.990869528429Spring1756230.9496999693655.996651714230Summer1576050.8907956205679.168134751931Fall3507981.0999838385725.4652041942322012Winter2907381.0595205717696.541454399933Spring2016490.9496999693683.373719040934Summer1876350.8907956205712.845893499935Fall4008481.0999838385770.920417489536

Coded QuarterEstimated ProductionSeasonal IndexQuarterly Projected Production2019Winter61438.27789202951.8351213121804.2931002659Spring62443.91533863771.8625023387826.7933563885Summer63449.55278524591.8898833653849.6023306625Fall64455.19023185411.9172643919872.7200230878

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