correlation between economic growth and science and technology

8/7/2019 Correlation between Economic Growth and Science and Technology

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Est. Econ., so Paulo, v. 40, n. 2, P. 319-340, abril-junho 2010

Modeling Economic Growth Fuelled by Science and

Technology

Leonardo Costa Ribeiro Ricardo Machado Ruiz

Amrico Tristo Bernardes Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque

ResumoEste artigo prope um modelo de simulao para investigar a contribuio da cincia e da tecnologia

para o crescimento econmico. O ponto de partida so os sistemas nacionais de inovao, um conceito

que sintetiza a capacitao tecnolgica das naes. Desta forma, o modelo pode preservar simplicidade e

parcimnia. Os dados coletados (patentes, artigos e PIB e populao, para 183 pases) indicam uma fortecorrelao entre cincia, tecnologia e renda. Trs exerccios com simulaes so realizados para diversos

momentos do tempo, mostrando a progressiva aderncia do modelo a essas variveis tecnolgicas.

Palavras-Chavesistemas nacionais de inovao, patente, cincia, competitividade, crescimento econmico

AbstractThis paper suggests a simulation model to investigate how science and technology fuel economic growth.

This model is built upon a synthesis of technological capabilities represented by national innovation sys-

tems. This paper gathers data of papers and patents for 183 countries between 1999 and 2003, as wellas GDP and population for 2003. These data show a strong correlation between science, technology and

income. Three simulation exercises are performed. Feeding our algorithm with data for population, patents

and scientific papers, we obtain the world income distribution. These results support our conjecture on

the role of science and technology as sources of the wealth of nations.

Keywordsnational system of innovation, patent, science, competitiveness, economic growth

JEL ClassifcationO, O3

The Brazilian agencies CNPq and Fapemig partially supported this work. We thank Thais Henriques, Lean-dro Silva, Ana Luza Arajo, Marcela de Castro, Felipe da Mata e Luza M. Franco for research assistance,and two anonymous referees of this journal for their criticisms and suggestions. Any remaining errorsare ours.

Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG). E-mail: [email protected]. Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG). E-mail: rmruiz@cedeplar.

ufmg.br. Department of Physics, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP). E-mail: [email protected]. Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG).E-mail: albuquer@cedeplar.

ufmg.br.Contact address: Departamento de Economia FACE Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) BeloHorizonte MG Brazil. CEP: 30161-970.(Recebido em outubro de 2008. Aceito para publicao em agosto de 2009).


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Est. econ., So Paulo, 40(2): 319-340, abr.-jun. 2010

320 Modeling Economic Growth Fuelled by Science and echnology

1 Science and Technology Fuelling Economic Growth

This pp psnts sitin d t instigt hw scinc nd tchngyf cnic gwth. This d is bit pn tw diffnt ins f instigtintd t th tiny ppch: fist, ntin systs f inntin (NSIs)(FreemaN, 1988; NelSoN, 1993); scnd, th tiny ding sttgybsd n sitin ds (NelSoN; WINTer, 1982; DoSI, 2000). Sinc thcncpt f NSI is synthsis f tchngic cpbiitis cid by cntis, ths f this cncpt ws sitin d t b psinis. Wht ththtic fndtins tht ndin th cncpt f ntin inntin systs?Ntin inntin syst (NSI) is cncpt tht shws hw cpx intpyf diffnt cts (fis, nisitis, pbic bs, gnnts, finnci instit-

tins tc) pshs th tchngic dpnt f ntins. NSI pts th ngin ftchngic pgss t th cnt f th pcss f cnic dpnt.

Inntin syst is cncpt dpd by Fn (1988), Nsn (1988) ndlnd (1988) in bk tht is th fist gnid psnttin f th tinistppch s wh (DoSI et al., 1988). Th fist nd f this btin, tg, tk pc ding th 1970s, with th pbictin f th pining wks:Fn (1974); rsnbg (1976) nd Nsn nd Wint (1977). Ths wksind t f thtic synthsis nd dig with pis btin.1Th st f this fist nd f thtic btin is th gnd wk f nxpsin f piic, thtic nd cpti stdis sing th tinybtin s fnc. Fn (1994) nd Dsi (1997) dscib th ich yf sbjcts wkd t by tinists ft this fist nd. a scnd nd fthtic btin tks pc ding th 1980s nd th 1990s: th cncpt fNSI is psntd (FreemaN, 1988; NelSoN, 1988; luNDvall, 1988).

Th cntibtins spciy iptnt nd psntti: Nsn (1993),

lnd (1992) nd edist (1997). Th NSI s synthsis f pis btinpnd nw f fth dncs in th tiny ppch nd t bdnth cncpt f inntin systs. Th thid nd f tiny btin nNSIs phsis nw sbjcts in th sch gnd: th cnnctins btwnNSIs, cnic gwth nd dpnt, cngnc nd dignc in gbn. Fn (1995) is psntti f this nw nd. Dsi, Fn ndFbini (1994), Fgbg (1994), nd Nsn (1998) psnttis f -tinists intntins in th dbt gding cnic gwth. Dsi, Fn ndFbini (1994, p. 14-15) pt fwd hw hs th ctin btwn tchngy

nd wth d thght th 20th cnty. This pint is siy intgtd

1 S Nsn nd Wint (1982, p. 33-45) f sy f is nd ntcdnts f tinythy.


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led c. re, rd M. rz, am t. bede, Edd d M e aqeqe 321


with th wks, s Nin et al. (1997) tht shw th incsing f scinc ndtchngy s scs f cnic dpnt.2 o pp y b sn s ptf fth nd f this tiny btin, inititd by lnds Gbics

ntwk in 2003 (www.gbics.g) nd by Nsns Ctch up Pjct (2005).Ths inititis ttpts t incd ss-dpd cntis s iptntsbjcts f th tiny gnd. Sinc dt, d nd sitins incd cntis f th Wd, pp cntibts t this st nd f tinybtin.

Why shd w s sitin tchnis f ding? Th tinycnists, in tditin pind by Nsn nd Wint (1982), h sd si-tin tchnis t instigt cnic chng. Nsn nd Wint xpin why

th s f sitin tchnis is dt f tiny thists. Th insns t pt f sitin tchnis : thtic cncns (s stngitti bifs bt nb f cpnnts f th d witht bingigid bt th pcis f thy shd tk, p. 207), tctbiity, pssibiity fniptin f ctin ibs f th d, nd th pssibiity f gntingc gggts thgh th t f biding th p f iccnicdt (p. 207-209). Thy wn ginst th st sis pb with ny si-tin ds: ck f tnspncy (p. 208). Nthss thy cncd thtit is pssib t i f nd chi cnsidb nt f tnspncy in sitin d by kping it tiy sip nd cn (p. 208).

Sitin ds h bn widy sd s ts f instigtin f fi cp-titin, pth-dpndnc, kt stct, tchngic chng t fi nd inds-ty s tc. Ths ins f iniy intdcd by Nsn nd Wint (1982,spciy Pt III: Schptin cptitin). Nsn (1995) nd Dsi (2000) gd sys f this itt. Sibg nd vspgn (2005) psnt n pdtdsin f this in f iniy.Hw, in f instigtin gs int nth

dictin: ds f ti-cnty gwth. Nsn nd Wint s pind thisin, with thi tiny d f cnic gwth (1982, chpt 9). Tsit th unitd Stts cny btwn 1909 nd 1949, Nsn nd Wintsd ins: () 35 fis, pdcing th s hgns pdct (GNP),sing b nd cpit; (b) fis with ctin pdcti tchni nd stckf cpit; (c) sip dcisin ; (d) wg t; () gss tns t cpitnd (f) tnsitin s (sting f sch pcds nd instnt s (p.209-217). Th d gnts gggt ti sis with chctistics cs-pnding t ths f cnic gwth in th unitd Stts (p. 226). Sinc 1982

th is std gwth f th itt sing tiny ds nd sitintchnis. Hw, ds cncning gwth f ntins tiy scc; n

2 S fncs n this sbjct in Bnds nd ab (2003).


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iptnt xcptin is th wk f asi et al. (2000). Bit pn styid fctssid by Dsi et al. (1994), th d psnts ti-cnty d thttis t s stps in this dictin by icfnding cnty dynics n

s styid cpny spcific pcsss f inntin nd iittin (p. 535). Itsits n wd cny with l cntis, ch cnty with m scts nd nfis. Th d is y dtid in its spcifictins, dfining th pcds fsch nd iittin, th bhi s (tty tinid: r&D instnts,pics, fis cptitinss nd fis gwth), kt dynics, gggt dy-nics nd ntin ccnts nd th gn pptis f th d (ndgnstchngic shcks, shcks ppgtin, scs f psistnc nd nn-inpcsss f intctins ng fis nd chctistics f nw fis). Thid hs 23 tins.

o d diffs f th asi et al. (2000) in tw sip wys. Fist, whithy ty t dd icfndtins t th d, d is bit pn th synth-sis f tchngic cpbiitis psntd by th cncpt f NSI. Scnd, in thid th in gnts fis, whi in d th gnts cntis, thsth intctin ng cntis is iny gidd by th NSI nd th cnty -ibs, sch s pptin nd gn pic indx . o in f iniy d st sch f psinis ds, which n fw tins, ibs synthticngh t dscib ky fts f dn cnic dpnt. Thf ths f NSI nd its tw dinsins (scinc nd tchngy) t si thstinships.3

NSI is cpx instittin ngnt, pdct f ng histic dpnttht ins dis cts sch s fis, nisitis nd pbic sch institts,gnnts, g systs, tictin with finnci systs (pbic nd pit).Ths cts intct ng thss, gnting sf-nfcing dynics ndt fdbck btwn th. This pp fcss n tw dinsins f this b-

d instittin ngnt: 1) th scintific dinsin nisitis nd pbicsch institts th ky cpnnts h; 2) th tchngic dinsin fis th ky cpnnts. Ths tw dinsins with thi ky cpnnts pt f NSIs nd bddd in thi instittin ftin. Th is si-pifictin in dcisin t s ths tw dinsins in ding xcis tsi NSI. Hw, ths tw dinsins y psntti f NSI.on th n hnd, bcs th xistnc nd th stngth f fis dpnd pnbd fcts s finnci cnditins, dctin nd skis, nd ccnic n-innt. on th th, bcs th si, ity nd disity f nisitis nd

3 In psnttin f n piiny sin f this d in Cnfnc f Physics (ruIz etal., 2005), s pticipnts psntd tgh citiciss ginst th d bcs it hd tny ibs (f ibs cnty dinsins: GDP, pptin, scintific cpbiity, ndtchngic cpbiity).


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PrIs dpnd pn th fcts s th f ntin biding, th stt f pbicfinnc, nd inc distibtin. Thf, th si, ity nd ity f bthth tchngic nd scintific dinsins y b gd sy f th

cnditins f NSI. In pis pp (BerNarDeS; alBuquerque, 2003)w h sggstd highy sipifid d with th diffnt gis f int-ctin. In this sipifid d, th intctins btwn ths tw dinsins cci f cnic gwth, sinc fis ipnt inntins nd thcts f jbs, inc, nd wth, nd thy nd t s th scintific instittinst fd thi innti ctiitis. In tht sipifid d, th csity ns bthwys, sinc n th n hnd scinc nd tchngy f cnic gwth, bt nth th hnd, cnic gwth fds scinc nd tchngy (with s-cs t finnc scinc nd ngining fids, pbic nd pit instnts f

fis ctin, cnditins t finnc pit r&D tc).

Wht th ntitti indicts tht y cpt th scintific dinsin ndth tchngic dinsin? Ptnt sttistics sd s pxy f tchngiccpbiitis nd pbictin sttistics pxy f scintific cpbiitis. Thfthy tgth y si th in fts f ntin inntin systs. ofcs, pps nt pfct s f scintific pdctin, nd ptnts nt pfct s f tchngic inntin. Th itt hs sd thsdt nd cgnid thi pbs nd shtcings (s meD; GlNzel;SCHmoCH, 2004). Scintific pps, th dt cctd by th ISI, h isshtcings, f ngg bis t th ity f sch pfd. Bsids,th cd b iptnt sch fft f c nds tht d nt tnst inintntin pps, bt ny in ntin pbictins nt cptd by th ISI dt-bs. Ptnts, th uSPTo dt, s h iptnt shtcings, f cciinkgs with th uS t th ity f th ptnt. agin, c inntin ncssiyis iitd t iittin in th initi phss f dpnt, nd iittin indpttins d nt ify f ptnt in th uSPTo.

Dspit ths pbs, ths tw dtsts pp t pid sf inftin fsch. This pp gths dt f pps nd ptnts f 183 cntis btwn1999 nd 2003. Th ptin f ccting bd sp f cntis is jstifidby th incsin f cntis f diffnt stgs f dpnt, which ws cpisn btwn dpd nd ss-dpd cntis (incding th tn-sitin psitin f ctching p cntis). This dt st ss th g f thpid 1999-2003, in d t incd cntis, iny ths ss dpd,with y w scintific nd/ tchngic pdctin.

Fig 1 gnis th dt in th-dinsin pt, wh th g10 f th GDPper capita (uS$, PPP, ccding t th Wd Bnk, f 2003) is pttd ginst


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th g10 f th nb f tics p iin f inhbitnts (a*) nd th g10 fth nb f ptnts p iin f inhbitnts (P*). Th dt n g fth ys 1999-2003. ony cntis with dt ib nd scs diffnt f

psntd.

Fig 1 shws stng ctin btwn scinc, tchngy nd wth fntins. Tb 1 shws Ctin mtix btwn GNP, ptnts, tics, ndpptin. Th stng tinships ng ths ibs, which indicttht th is s syst tht cnncts th. Fig 2 shws th pjctin fths dt n th tics-ptnts pn. ribi et al. (2006b) ppy sp-pgntic csting tchni nd find th gps f cntis. Hnc, thysggst th th gis tht sis diffnt s f dpntnd diffnt typs f NSI.

Figure 1 GDP Per Capita vs. Articles vs. Patents (1999-2003)


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able 1 Correlation Matrix

GDP GDPpc POP PATpc ARTpc PAT ART

GNP 1.0000

GNPpc 0.3606 1.0000

POP 0.2689 -0.0786 1.0000

PATpc 0.6578 0.6752 0.0385 1.0000

ARTpc 0.2631 0.8053 -0.0726 0.7084 1.0000

PAT 0.9691 0.3015 0.1550 0.6577 0.2037 1.0000

ART 0.9869 0.3950 0.2804 0.6743 0.3335 0.9380 1.0000

Dt Sc: ISI, uSPTo nd Wd Bnk, ths btin.

Ths gis sggst tht th diffnt chniss insid NSI. Th in-tctins btwn scinc nd tchngy s t b pting fy in thcntis f th st dpd gi (gi 3, psntd by cics in Fig2). Cnsy, cntis in csts psntd by tings (gi 2) nd byss (gi 1) ck citic ss in th scintific infstct tht wkns( n bcks) th fdbcks btwn scinc nd tchngy tht pshs c-nic gwth.

ribi et al. (2006b) sggst tht s th gis chng, th nb nd thchnns f intctins btwn scintific infstct, tchngic pdctinnd cnic gwth s chng. as th cnty s, cnnctins tnd n nd intctins pt. This pcss is nn-in nd sbjctt stct chngs. Th highst gi is th cs wh cnnctins ndintctins wking. as ng s th dpnt tks pc, th f thspcts, .g. nt scs, dcss in th cstin f cnic gwth. as cnty pgds its cnic psitin, its cnic gwth is incsingy csd

by its scintific nd tchngic scs. Th fdbcks btwn th cnti-bt t xpin why th dn cnic gwth is fd by stng scintificnd tchngic cpbiitis.

This pps d is st f pis wk. Bnds nd ab (2003)psnt discssin cncning scinc nd tchngy in ss-dpd cntis,whi ri et al. (2005) initits ding btin. ribi et al. (2006)cncds this btin nd sggsts fist d nd ribi et al. (2006b)

cst cntis in th diffnt gis, psnting diffnt stgs f NSIftin.


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Nt: Csts btind in ppying th sp-pgntic csting tchni. Th in gps cy distingishd in this fig. Th cics psnt cntis in gi III, tingsstnd f ths in gi II, nd ss psnt cntis in gi I. Nt tht sgp f th cntis spit t th tp f th fig. Thy Tiwn, Jpn, nd th unitdStts. F dtis, s ribi et al. (2006b).

Sc: ribi et al. (2006b).

Figure 2 Tree Regimes (1999-2003)

This pp is gnid in f sctins, incding this intdctin (Sctin 1).Sctin 2 psnts d. Sctin 3 pfs th sitins. Sctin 4 cn-cds th pp.

2 Innovation and Imitation in a Multi-Country Model

This sctin psnts nw d, bsd n pis wk. ri et al. (2005)is th fist dft nd ribi et al. (2006) psnt fist dpd d. Thinsights nd discssins pidd by ths pis pps cntibtd f n i-pnt: cnty y innt n if it hs nt hd inc dctins. In thf d, cnty ny wd ty t ip its tchngic psitin if its

inc w dcd. This sning is in in with Nsn nd Wint 1982 d,wh ny ths fis tht k gss tn n thi cpit ss thn th t-gt f 16 pcnt ngg in sch (p. 211). This ss nt t b th cs, s


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thy nd idnc shw tht ding cntis innt in y systtic wy.Ths, in this sin f th d, cnty y ip its tchngy withtsffing inc sss. In d, th wd cny is dsignd s ntwk

f gnts (cntis), nd th intctins ng ths cntis psntd byfnctins tht cnnct thi pics, dnds, tchngis, nd incs. Sttingf nd s f th cnty tchngy, th tifici wd cny sf-gnis itsf nd cts hichis f cntis tht cs t th wd(s idntifid by piic findings). In th bginning f th sitin, this n nbncd ntwk, ch pint ( cnty) in th cnfigtin spc withits wn st f fts. Hw, intctins ncssy (within cntis ndbtwn th) t pdc spcific hichy. This hichy y cspnd (nt) t th wd cptd by dt (GDP per capita).

Th bsic ibs f ch cnty () Li, its pptin b fc; (b) itsinc gss dstic pdct Yi (th wg per capita inc bing Wi = Yi/Li); (c) ptnts nd (d) scintific pps. Th cnty cnic stct is ginby f tins, dscibd s fws:

2.1 Pe d Pd

Th tins tht dfin th f pdctin nd pic :

Qit = (Tit . Lit) + Vit-1 (1)

Pit = (Yit/ Qit) (2)

Pit = Yit/ [(Tit . Lit) + Vit-1]

Wh, Qi is th nt f gds pdcd by cnty i, Tipsnts cnty t-chngy, Li stnds f pptin b fc, nd Vi is th nsd gd f pispid. Th cnty inc (uS$ GDP) is Yi nd Pi is th pic f n nit f gdQi. Pptin ( b fc) is cnstnt, ths Qi dpnds sty n Ti, which isn tpt f th NSI. Th pic is st by n dpti : ything scnstnt, nsd stcks nd dcsing ntin inc dc pics nd incscptitinss, nd fing innty nd ising inc d th ppsit.4

4 Psss et al. (2001) st fi pic s fnctin f dsid pic nd g pic wightd by

dg f npy. Sch pic is sin f th s-cd f cst pincip in igpistcnditins. This ding is n dt psnttin whn th gnts fis. Hw,in d th gnt cntis, which i nth ding ppch. This pp-ch is ncssy bcs th n sttgic intctins ng cntis, s in igpisticindstis.


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2.2 cmpeee, Mke se d Demd

Th cnty cptitinss Ci hs n ins tin with its pic:

Cit = (1 / Pit) (3)

Th gb cptitinss Cgis th cnty cptitinss Ci wightd its -kt sh Mi (th pticiptin f th cnty in th wd cny sd byits inc):

Mit= Yit / Yit Cgt = (Mit . Cit) (4)

a pict dynics tin ds th chngs f cnty kt sh (-tin 5 nd 6). Th pict dynics is tiny sd in tiny g th-y, sins f cbwb ds nd th dynic sts. It is sd t psntsggish chngs in bhis; in this cs th is th spd f th kt shchngs t sytis in th cnty nd th gb cptitinss.

Mit = Mit-1 . [1 + . {(Cit / Cgt) 1}], where 0 < < 1, and Mit = 1 (5)

Ths, th cnty dnd Di (nit f gds) is gin by:

Ygt = YitDit = (Mit . Ygt) / Pit (6)

Th d hs n iptnt ssptin: it hs n ipicit fix xchng t gi.Ths, th gggt inc djsts fwing th ti cnty cptitinss,which ns tht th nin nd p cpit inc incs dcs t tth inc gin by Mit.Ygt. Th is n td nd xchng t picy thtcd inii xiis th td .5

2.3 Income and Inventory

Th cnt disiibi n th nt f gds dndd nd sppid.Ths, th sip s w ctd:

When Dit= Qit, then: Yit = Pit . Qit = Pit. Dit,Vit = 0 (7)

5 T dd td nd xchng t picy s sttgic bhis f cntis it wd i stting ctin fnctin din by chngs in inc, pynt whn wgs cnstnt, xpt nd ipt td s. Tht cd b nxt stp in this d: th incsin fcnic pic gis.


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When Dit > Qit, then: Yit= Pit . Qit,Vit = 0 (8)

When Dit < Qit, then: Yit = Pit . Dit, Vit = (Qit Dit) (9)

Vgt = Vit= (Qit Dit) (10)

Rgt= Rit = [Pit . (Dit - Qit)] (11)

Wh Yi is th inc tht st f th c nd intntin td, Rit ndRgt th cnty nd gb sid inc (inc nt spnt), nd Vit nd Vgt th cnty nd gb stck f nsd gds. Th cnty sid inc ispptin t its kt sh Mi:

Rit = Rgt . Mit (12)

In the first cse bove (equtions 7), ll goods re sold (Vit = 0) nd there re no resi-

dul income (Ri= 0), which mens the system is in equilibrium (thus Rg= 0 nd Vg=

0). In the second cse (eqution 8), there is n excess of demnd (Rgt > 0), there is no

inventory (Vgt = 0) nd consumers do not spend ll their incomes, which mens resi-

dul income Rit return to countries (eqution 9). In the third cse (eqution 10) thereis n excess of supply (Vit > 0) nd ll income is spent (Rg= 0). at the equilibrium

there would be no inventory (Vg= 0) nd no residul income (Rg= 0). However, s

one cn check, the equtions 16 to 18 keep the system out of the equilibrium.

Thf, th cnt cnty inc Yit is th inc f td Yit-1 ps thinc nt spnt in th pis pid Rit-1 (sid inc). Th wg ( percapita inc) is th cnty inc distibtd ng its bs (pptin).

Yit = Yit-1 + Rit-1 (13)

Wit = Yit / Lit (14)

Th gb inc is th s f cnty incs:

Ygt = Yit (15)

2.4 teg cge

Cntis chng thi tchngy in d t incss its cptitinss ndwth. Tchngy dpnds n th pis f its wn knwdg (Tit-1) nd


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n th tchngic inftin gbbd f intntin scs (Tgt-1). Cntycpbiitis t ct nw tchngis psntd by ptnts nd tics percapita (PTi nd ATi), which pxis f cntys tchngic nd scintific

cpbiitis:Tit = Tit-1 + Nit (16)

Nit = (Tgt . PTi . ATi)1/3, where 0 < Ni (17)

Tgt = (Mit . Tit-1) (18)

Th cfficint Ni is pxy t th NSI, which cspnds t th cntis in-ntin cpbiitis (ATi nd PTi) ps th spis f tchngis f th gbcny (Tgt). Thf, th ntin syst f inntin Ni sis thcnty cpbiitis t iitt nd innt.

Draw 1 Model Structure


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3 Simulations and Results

W chs th initi s f sitins (initi cntis incs, Yt 0). Thsyst s ccdingy th gith dscibd in Sctin 4. Thn w nitth tin f inc (Y) nd f sid inc (R) nti th syst chs sttiny stt. Typicy (s in rIBeIro et al., 2006), w s th tntiiniti cnditins f th wth f ntins:

() cntis stt with thi GDPs;

(b) cntis h th s GDP ch cnty cis 1 /cN

i i cY N

= , wh Nc

is th nb f cntis (183); nd

(c) w gi nd s t Y0.

In sitins th initi f tchngic dpnt (T0) is n

dy sctd btwn (0,1].

3.1 F sm: i rdm GDP

In fist sitin xcis, w psnt th cs f initi nd s fY0(p-tin nb 3, b). Fig 3 shws th tin (1,000 sitin stps) f

gb sid inc Rgf this cs. In th bginning (th fist 70 sitin stps)th hg diffncs btwn sppy nd dnd. This istch is psntdby th high s f gb sid inc (Rg). as th sitin gs n, th gbsid inc dcs significnty nd th syst s t sttiny stt(n 400 sitin stps). Fig 3b shws sii pttn f nsd gds.

Figure 3 Residual Income (3a) and Unsold Goods (3b) (1,000 Simulation Steps,

Logaritmic Scale)


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as th syst chs sttiny stt (ccding t Figs 3 nd 3b), w c-p th nd th sitd s. Fig 4 psnts this cpisn (Yver-susYsitd), ft 1,000 sitin stps. Th is ctin btwn th

nd sitd s (= 1.10 nd R2

=0.98). This ctin sggsts tht thssptins gding th giding fc f tchngic cpbiity (T) t gnith sitd wd pict w th wd, hw, th sp f th -gssin dss s cntis. rgding th ctin btwn sitdnd s, Fig 4 shws tht f high Y th is s dispsin fpints (cntis) vis--vis th in gssin. This sggsts tht f ich cn-tis th f scinc nd tchngy s sc f thi wth is stng thnf p cntis. Insy, f w Yth is gt dispsin f pints(cntis) vis--vis th gssin in. This gt dispsin y indict tht

f ths p cntis th fcts bynd scinc nd tchngy (ntscs ndwnts, gpitic cnditins, tc) h stng s sc fthi wth. Ths findings s t b in in with sip d psntd in pis pp (s BerNarDeS; alBuquerque, 2003).

rgding th sp f th gssin in (= 1.10), Fig 4 shws bth s-titin nd ndstitin f wth. Th wth f ich ntins is sti-td in 10%, whi th wth f th p cntis is ndstitd in 10%.This dignc y b xpind s by th xcsin f th fcts f d. as in d ny tchngic cpbiitis (T) dtin th wthf ntins, th tchngicy stng cntis tnd t b stitd. on thcnty, cntis whs inc dpnds n th fcts h nt bn tknint cnsidtin, hnc th ndstitin. Indd, it is xpctd tht -d shd pdc sp gt thn 1, gin its ssptin (th fcts pyn ). This fist xcis shws s tht th syst tnds t sttiny stt (nn-chtic stt), n ssnti ppty f wking d. Figs 4 nd 5 shwth s sitin f GDP nd GDP per capita. Fig 4 hs R2 = 0.98 nd

Fig 5 hs R2

= 0.83. Fig 4 shws high ctin (f GDP) bt sch highctins xpctd in ds wh th sc f ibs py stng .Fig 5 shws w ctin f GDP per capita, bcs th sc ffctf GDP is iniid by th si f pptin.


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Figure 4 GDP (Y, US$ Billion), Real and Simulated Values (1,000 Simulation Steps,

Logaritmic Scale)

Figure 5 GDP Per Capita (W, US$ Billion), Real and Simulated Values (1,000Simulation Steps, Logaritmic Scale)


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3.2 sed sm: Tee Dee i GDP

In this scnd sitin xcis, w cp th ctin btwn th ndth sitd wd ctd f th th initi cnditins f Yi(t= 0). Fig 6shws th tin f th ctin cfficint btwn th nd sitdwth f ths th pths: () pn cics f initi GDPs t GDPs;(b) csd cics f cntis with th s initi GDP; nd (c) pn ssf initiy ndy sctd GDPs.

Pdictby, Fig 6 shws tht ding th fist sitin stps th ctinbtwn nd sitd GDPs y diffnt: high ctin f GDPss initi s nd w ctin f th th tw stting pints. asyticiniti cnditins ndi this initi diffnt ctin. Hw, s th si-tin s, th ctin s cng t th s (high) ctin .This psnts y iptnt pint: d is bst in tin t initicnditins. Whn w fd d with th dt f pptin, scintificnd tchngic pdctin, it ds nt tt f wh th sitin bgins.Tht is, it wi wys bid sitd wd tht picts th wd. Inth wds, ths th ibs ngh t dfin th wd wth distib-tin in sttiny stt. a cs cng t th ctin in th nighbhdfR2=0.98 nd t sp n 1.10.

Nt: Sitins stting with , nd nd GDPs s.

This scnd xcis shws tht th syst wys picts th wd, indpndnt f

th initi cnditins. as d ds nt cnt f ibs ik GDP, th syst isbst gding its initi cnditins.

Figure 6 Correlation between Real and Simulated GDPs


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3.3 Td sm: re d rdm ve Pp, sef d teg Pd

In this thid sitin xcis, th initi GDPs s th ns. In thisxcis wht w chng th s f pptin (L) nd f scintific ndtchngic pdctin (T). Fig 7 shws th ctin btwn th ndsitd Ybtind f f diffnt pths. Ding th fist sitin stps thctin is high in f css bcs th GDPs th stting pints.Dignc gding ctin is gntd jst ft 40 sitin stps.

Nt: Sitins stting with nd nd s f pptin, tchngic nd scintificpdctin.

Figure 7 Correlation between Real and Simulated GDPs

Th fist pth is psntd by pn cics: th d is fd by nd s fpptin nd f scintific nd tchngic pdctin. as th syst s,th ctin btwn nd sitd wth fs, ching R2=0.1 ndth 100th ittin. Th scnd pth is psntd by csd cics: nd -s f scintific nd tchngic pdctin bt s f pptin. Thctin s fs s th syst s, bt chs R2=0.4 nd th 100th

ittin.


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In th tw st pths th ds fd by s f scinc nd tchngy.In th thid pth, psntd by f ss, pptins dfind ndy.Th ctin is high (R2 = 0.96) nd th 100th ittin. Finy, in th fth

pth, pptin nd scinc nd tchngy s, nd th ctin isR2=0.98 ( ctin sii t th btind in th tw pis xciss, stpics 5.1 nd 5.2, b).

Th cpisn btwn ths f pths sggsts th nd th wight fch ib s dtinnt f th wth f ntins, stssing th iptncf scinc nd tchngy. This xcis is th st iptnt t tst this ppscnjct.

In s, this sctin shws s tht: ) th syst tnds t sttiny stt ( nn-chtic stt); b) th syst wys picts th wd, indpndnt f thiniti cnditins; nd c) th nd wight f scinc nd tchngy s dt-innt f th wth f ntins.

4 Conclusions and Agenda or Further Research

Th findings th fwing s f: () th dt nd th initi sitin sppts

n iptnt f scinc nd tchngy in th dtintin f th wth fntins; (b) th d is b t pict th wd stting f th ibsdscibing scinc nd tchngy; (c) this d ws tstd t instigt wh-th nt th ibs wd h sii ffcts (th hichy f cntisis wys pictd by d whn fd by scinc nd tchngy nd it is ntpictd whn nd ibs sd).

rgding th d sggstd in Sctin 2, th sitin xciss shw thtit is b t pict th wd inc distibtin witht pii inftin

bt this distibtin. Tht is t sy: th gith is cnsistnt s th sts nn-tii (sttiny stt is indpndnt f initi cnditins). Th d si-ts wd tht hs high ctin with th wd. In dditin, th dis psinis, s w btin th wd inc distibtin (r2=0.98) fding thsyst ny with dt f pptin, ptnts nd scintific pps.

rgding this pps cnjct n th f scinc nd tchngy s dt-innt f th wth f ntins, th xciss shw tht scinc nd tchngy gd pxis t gid th syst t find its sttiny stt. Fth, s th

thid xcis shws, scinc nd tchngy iptnt thn pptint dfin th wds inc distibtin.


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Finy, this nw sin ips th d psntd in ribi et al. (2006)bcs T is nw dfind in wy in in with th idncs f th itt.Whi in th pis sin cnty ny wd ty t ip its tchngi-

c psitin if its inc ws dcd, nw cnty y ip its tchngywitht sffing f inc sss.

Th xciss nd ipnts psntd in this pp d s t bsin -d, sinc it is b t pict th wd ( sttic d). This bsin dsppts twds nxt stp f gnd: hw t d dynic wd.Th g f this dynic d is t pict th dynics pinpintd by th dtpsntd in ribi et al. (2006b), f th wd in 1974, 1982, 1990, 1998 nd2006. Tw dditin stps y b tkn: (1) intdctin f fdbcks f in-

c t NSI nd f NSI t inc, s sktchd by Bnds nd ab(2003); (2) ipnts in th ntitti nd f psnttin f NSIs,sinc th intctins btwn scinc nd tchngy st b dscibd nd -sd, iing indicts f cnnctiity nd gwth t. Ths ipnts in d wd pn th pssibiity f indiid ti-pths tht wd cth thshds idntifid by Fig 2 nd wd hp t istt th chngs inNSI id t chi sccssf tchngic ctch-p.

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correlation between economic growth and science and technology

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