cost index savings
TRANSCRIPT
AirSavingsA perspective to get started with dignified Cost Index Values
Presented by:
Jean-Jacques SPEYERDirector Operational EvaluationHuman Factors and Communication
OLM FBW 2006 – Toulouse – 26-28 September 2006
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
Practical Methods & Tools for Flight Economy4
3 Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
2 Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
Introduction
Contents
Conclusion and Discussion
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
History
1927: Fuel saving - to increase range (Lindberg)
1940s: Fuel saving - to increase „payload“
1960s: Fly faster than the competition (Concorde)
Time = Money1970s: Oil crisis - save fuel to save money:
Fuel = Money1990: FMCs introduce balancing concept: Cost Index
Time = Fuel
Cost Index =Cost Index =Cost ofCost of
Cost ofCost of[kg/min]
[lbs/0,01hr]
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
The Cost Index governs the optimisation of your flight plan
COST INDEXis the driver of
the FMS flight planoptimisation.
AirSavingscalculates it
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
An Airbus / fwz initiative to compute the cost index
AirSavingsWeb-based Software
JV with fwz:Sold by Airbus & f:wzROI within first monthBased on YOUR data!
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
4 Tactical Levers for effective Flight Economy
3 Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
2 Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
Contents
Conclusion and Discussion
Introduction
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Oil price will stay high in the short term but not forever
• Energy demand remain robust in spite of record prices
• Modest increased investment in exploration and drilling
• Supply disruption (emerging economies, war threats, terrorism, rebellions)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Base case
High-price scenario
Low-price scenario
History Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US$ per barrel (WTI)
Source : Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Oil price anticipated to trend downward in the longer term
Below $30/bbl unlikely, above 80$/bbl not unlikely at all
• Restored production capacity, increased refining capacity, slowerdemand in emerging economies, oil reserve back to adequate level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Real $2005
Nominal
History Forecast
Brent $ / bbl
Source : Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
The advent of Low Cost Carriers (LCC) has initiated a need to engageinto creative cost management in the battle for economies of scale
There is ample room for Flight Operations to contribute with regard to this
Whether fuel costs increase or decrease, it is important to track theirchanges to cipher out better cost indices for the FMS and for the CFP
FMS functionality still the same since advent of Glass Cockpits
Very few airlines utilize the Ci to its full extent which is perplexing
Widely varying ideas about what the cost index is and time-dependent cost
Many haven‘t a clue on economics and on how to account for delay costs
In the meantime Damocles’ sword is still over our heads
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
4 Tactical Levers for effective Flight Economy
3 Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
2 Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
Contents
Conclusion and Discussion
Introduction
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Predictions for 2006 call for steady traffic growth (4.5 to 6.5%)with fragile profitability and lower yields as facts of life
striving for structurally lower costs must hence persist all the time
some of the most intense cost cutting ever happened in 2001-2004
labour, distribution, airport fees being tackled, flight operational costshave just as well to decrease to spread the overall collective effort
Fuel hedging was possible thanks to a carrier’s strong financialcondition
enabling it to dedicate resources towards insuring itself against fuel hikes
fuel hedging contracts beginning to expire, record prices now bite, taking a toll
Airlines are nowtackling their Cost BasesAirlines are really tackling their Cost Bases
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Strong improvement of Efficiency Markers
Source : IATA
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Lower Unit Costs all along Oil Shock
Source : IATA
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Airlines are tackling their Cost BasesAirlines are really tackling their Cost BasesUnit cost, capacity and expe nses change 2001-2004
-1.90%
64.64%
1.90%
31.54%
2.20%
9.11%
-7.33%
41.93%
-4.20%
16.24%
-4.98%
-0.20%
-5.54%
-13.79%
-6.00%
-11.63%
-7.02%
-8.53%
US Majors
Low -cos t
Mainline
Rest of the w orld
North American airlines
All airlines in sampleUnit cost
Operating Expenses
Capacity
Source : ATA
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
4 Tactical Levers for effective Flight Economy
3
2
Contents
Conclusion and Discussion
Introduction
Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Examples of New Practices / Innovative AirSavings ~ 1
Consider Direct Operating Cost more critically and more closely:
Critical review of its real ingredients and seasonality/periodicity
Work collegially with all involved around a « key accountable » manager
– Flight Operations,
– Ground Operations incl. Dispatch and Passenger/ Cargo Service,
– Engineering/Maintenance,
– Finance & Accounting
AirSavings software to determine the (Flight) Cost Index to be fieldtested and improved through dedicated airline consulting :
Review and refresh costs periodically (AirSavings)
Introduce the cost of delays with Cost Benefit Analyses
– spend as an insurance to avoid even more eventual spending
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Data from SWA , LCC and legacy carriers out of / in Ch 11
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005GALLONS/TOTAL BLOCK HOUR 785.73 757.51 796.59 800.53 847.15 804.49($OPERATING-FUEL EXPENSES)/ASM 13.03 13.89 14.23 14.37 13.97 13.08SCHEDULED YIELD (CENTS/RPM) 17.37 15.52 14.15 14.34 13.38 13.28FUEL COST ($ PER GALLON) 0.94 0.81 0.73 0.86 1.07 1.61AVERAGE STAGE LENGTH (SM) 594 610 614 667 679 680$COST PER HOUR (CREW+MAINT) 1,013.4 893.1 982.3 693.4 684.6 653.6$FUEL COST in kg/min 12.34 10.17 9.7 11.43 15.13 11.43OVERALL COST INDEX 82 88 86 46 45 57
Cost of TimeCost of Fuel
Overal Cost Index
Since it works for DOT Form 41 airlines could do better with their owninternal cost data and city pair by city pair if they decided to go for it :
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Examples of Optimized Flight Planning & Procedures ~ 2
Selection of Flight Plan providers (not all give the same result)Dynamic Cost Index : include impact on flight planning for reasonableness
Fuel tankering : How to do it to optimize costs (included in Airsavings)
Inefficient air traffic control (ATC) systems are the “single largest cause offuel wastage” for which creative solutions are now steadily underway :
– FANS (CNS-ATM), RNP RNAV / RVSM (capacity increase)
– Reduced Lateral Separations (overflight charges), Datalink ( ATC charges)
In Flight ProceduresImprove the use of FMS (insertion of proper Cost Index i.e.Basic Default ,
Route Specific, Tactical Delay, performance / idle factor, step climbs,tropopause altitude, temperatures/ wind profile...)
Wind-Altitude Trade-Offs in flight for “Off-Optimum Altitudes”
Cost of flex versus cost of fuel also in the climb phase
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Examples of Flight Follow Up Analysis for Economics ~ 3
Specifying Flight Follow Up Analysis Flight plan recomputation after flight to look for possible savings
– No longer manual written flight logs but numeric ones, so let’s do somethingwith it to improve our Flight Cost Economics and learn from experience
Similar to post flight FOQA report, why not define a Flight Efficiency Index?– Assessing the energetic/ economic performance of a flight (an Econometer!)
Per season to aggregate big numbers over extended time periods :– Explain gross differences to explain delta’s due to gross stack ups :
Flight Techniques, ATC, Flight Planning, Weather Forecasting
– Adjusted / Weighted for factors, geared for airline decision-making
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Examples of New Practices / Flight Follow Up Analysis ~ 3
Source :Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Examples of New Practices / Flight Follow Up Analysis ~ 3
Source :Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
4
3
2 Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
Introduction
Contents
AirSavings
Conclusion and Discussion
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
AirSavings « is » available, ready for use now
Fuel costs money
Time costs money
Solution:
expresstime cost interms of fuel
time = fuel
Example:
Fuel cost = 0.5 USD / kg (1.5USD/USG), Time cost = 5 USD / minute (300USD/fh)
equivalent to a Time cost of 10 kg / minute ! (5 / 0.5) => Costindex equals 10
FMC doesn‘tunderstandmoney
PLEASE WAIT...
Comparing apples with apples when trading of Ct vs Cf
Source : Airbus/fwz:
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Fuel as a currency
The Cost Index concept
treats fuel as a currency
with the
fuel price being the exchange rate
From now on, we can deal with
kg / min instead of USD / min
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Fuel as a currency
Simply add up fuel and time to get total costexpressed in fuel quantity:
Example:Trip fuel = 40000kgFlight time = 9:10 (550 minutes)CI = 10 kg/minTotal cost = 45500kg (40000 + 550*10)
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Comparing Solutions
Example:Solution 1 (low speed)Trip fuel = 40000kgFlight time = 9:10 (550 minutes)CI = 10 kg/minTotal cost = 45500kg (40000 + 550*10)
Solution 2 (high speed)Trip fuel = 40500kgFlight time = 8:50 (530 minutes)CI = 10 kg/minTotal cost = 45800kg (40500 + 530*10)
In this example, the low speed solution is optimal for cost index 10 !(with a fuel price of 0.5 USD / kg we can convert the 300kg saving to 150USD)
Fuel40000
Time5500
Total45500
Fuel40500
Time5300
Total45800
300
Sa
ving
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Changing the Cost Index
Example:Solution 1 (low speed)Trip fuel = 40000kgFlight time = 9:10 (550 minutes)CI = 50 kg/minTotal cost = 67500kg (40000 + 550*50)
Solution 2 (high speed)Trip fuel = 40500kgFlight time = 8:50 (530 minutes)CI = 50 kg/minTotal cost = 67000kg (40500 + 530*50)
In this example we assume a higher cost of time, increasing the Cost Indexto 50.Now the high speed solution becomes more optimal.(with a fuel price of 0.5 USD / kg we can convert the 500kg saving to 250USD)
Fuel40000
Time27500
Total67500
Fuel40500
Time26500
Total67000
500
Sa
ving
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
AirS@vings enables a Dynamic Cost Index
Tailored CI for every flight with Tankering recommendation
AirSavings is a first step towards integrated Flight Cost Managementfor MinimumCost (typicalCI=82)
78,00%
83,00%
88,00%
93,00%
98,00%
0,720 0,740 0,760 0,780 0,800 0,820 0,840 0,860
Mach
Fuel Flow(kg/FH)
SFC (kg/NM)
Total Spec. Cost(USD/NM)
Cost of Time(USD/FH)
MaximumRange
MinimumCost
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Data Flow to database and to Flight Planning Programme
DatabaseCost Index
per Flight
Flight
Planning
FMC
Database
Cost Index
Administra
tion
AirSavings
Manual InputsCost Indexper Flight
Cost Indexper Flight
Flight
Planning
Flt Schedule
Crew Schedule
Fuel Prices
Currency Rates
A/C Rotation
FlightPlanning
AutomatedInterfaces
AutomatedInterfaces
Source : Airbus/fwz:
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Internet
per CityPair
InternetInternet
AirSavings Minimum Configuration
Database
ManualInterfaces
FlightPlanning
FMC
Database
Cost Index
Administra
tion
Cost Index
Administration
Manual InputsCost Index
per City Pair
FlightPlanningFlight
Planning
For small short haul carriers
Browser Client, running on a PCwith Internet connection
Single Currency (no exchangerate updates required)
No interfaces
No crew cost
Fuelprices by manual input
TDMC by manual input
Citypair Lists as Output
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
AirSavings Fullsized Configuration
For large or long haul carriers
Server components on dedicatedor shared server
All input data via interfaces(Schedule, Aircraft Rotation,Crew, Fuel prices, Currencies)
Automatic TDMC updates /requests
Interface to flight planning system
Database Cost Indexper Flight
AutomatedInterfaces Flight
Planning
FMC
Database
Cost Index
Administra
tion
Cost Index
Administration
Manual InputsCost Indexper Flight
Cost Indexper Flight
AutomatedInterfaces
FlightPlanning
Flt Schedule
Crew Schedule
Fuel Prices
Currency Rates
A/C Rotation
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Cost Factors / TDMC
Sector Length in Flight Hours
DMCper Trip
DMC per Trip = H * Sector Length + C
Sector Length in Flight Hours
DMCper Trip
Sector Length in Flight Hours
DMCper Trip
DMC per Trip = H * Sector Length + C
Cyclic Cost (C) Hourly Cost (H)Cyclic Cost (C) Hourly Cost (H)Cyclic Cost (C) Hourly Cost (H)
In the diagrams above, only the blue section is determining the TDMC, whichis purely the portion of cost that is directly proportional to flight time.
Only include costs that will be affected by a change in flight time assmall as a single minute.
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Added feature : Time Dependant Maintence Cost Wizard
Source :Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Delay Cost Management
Cost Input to AirS@vings and Flight planning System
Based on Historical Irregularity Cost to be consulted on CRS
Source :Airbus
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
On the Ground: Flight Planning System Integration
Cost Index
TDMC+Fuel
Overflight Charges
Del
ayCo
st
Total Cost
All cost factors of different solutions are visible for comparison in on singledisplay, with values relative to the best solution
Source :fwz:
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
username: GUESTij
password: airsave
domain: public
http://airsavings.fwz.aero
Support :[email protected]
Do ask for a password here!
Send your feedback toAirbus and f:wz
Getting a temporary password and testing it for free
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Application Layout / City Pairs List
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Savings per Flight Leg
Savings per Flightleg
Avg predicted savings with AirSavings in original units Avg predicted Savings in $Opt. Mode Unit SR MR LR SR MR LRFL / Mach kg 13 90 483 8 54 290Delay Cost Index * kg 21 48 261 13 29 157Tankering $ 10 30 40 10 30 40
Avg. Fuel Price $/T 600
for Flights on ScheduleCurrent Scenario Nr 1 1 1Current Scenario LRC LRC LRC
for Flights with DelayCurrent Scenario Nr 5 5 4Current Scenario M75 M80 M82Percentage delayed % 30% 30% 30%
Current Tankering % 20% 10% 0%Tankering Potential % 40% 30% 20%
SR = Short RangeMR = Medium RangeLR = Long RangeLRC = Long Range CruiseM80 = Mach 0.80 CruiseCI 40 = Cost Index 40 Cruise
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Check Your Solutions
• typical result from a legacy flight-planning system with added functionalityclaiming to optimize for cost index,
• the green area shows the results from the system, while on the right side acomparison is made for required cost indices. The red zone values shouldactually be in the same line as the corresponding Cost Index! The values inthe orange cells are the fuel penalties for not optimizing correctly,
• Results like these may actually be responsible for the limited acceptance ofthe Cost Index concept,
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Real Optimization
• this is how a well optimized solution will look like – note that the zero valuesare exactly on the correct lines in the orange fields,
• typical in-flight solutions like the Mmo speed profile on a fuel optimized FLprofile in the last line show a significant cost penalty (over 4T of virtual fuel),
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Running Conservative Scenarios on representative aircraft
AirSavings Application Cost
One-time License Fee 38,413 USD
One Time Setup Cost (installation, interfacing,training, etc - estimate*) 5,000 USD
Hardware, Standard Software licenses (estimate*) 8,000 USD
Yearly recurringcost (license, support, releases) 5,762 USD/yAmortization period 5 Years
Total yearly cost 15,044 USD/y
* both can be reduced significantlyif you choose the hosted variant,which will make absolutelysense for yourfleet size of 7 aircraft.
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
Cost Saving Potential Overview
Cost Saving Potential Overview (relative to current situation)
Short Range Medium Range Long Range TotalNumbero f A/C 9 10 10 29Legs/Day 6.0 4.0 1.5Legs/Year 19710 14600 5475 39785
Opt. Module Short Range Medium Range Long Range TotalFL/Mach X 151,767 786,940 1,586,655 2,525,362Delay Cost Index X 248,346 420,480 857,385 1,526,211Tankering X 197,100 438,000 219,000 854,100
Total (USD/Year) 4,905,673
This is an estimate how much saving could be achieved in total relative to the current situation.
While AirSavings will contribute significantly to achieve those savings, this potential also implies that flight planning andFMS handling is done accordingly, as well as pilots and dispatchers are properly trained to understand the concepts andact accordingly.
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
1
5
Practical ways & means toward Flight Economy
4
3
2 Strategic Markers of Airline Economics
Introduction
Contents
AirSavings
Conclusion and Discussion
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AirSavings OLM FBW 2006
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