Cost Estimate

Cost Estimate

The total project cost for purchase and testing of the cost for the E951 15T Pulsed Magnet is $540k, of which $55k is for MIT-PSFC manufacture follow, and $60 k is for MIT testing of the completed magnet. No contingency is recommended based on a review of recent MIT-PSFC projects in which the BNL magnet estimate is considered representative, and the BNL cryostat cost is considered substantially conservative. The BNL pulsed magnet cost consists of four major components:

Magnet Winding (three segments)

Vacuum Vessel and Cryostat

Manufacture Supervision (MIT-PSFC personnel)

Testing (at MIT-PSFC facility, only LN2 cooling)

The first two are covered by the specification for the manufacture of the coil and related vessels. The vacuum vessel and cryostat will be costed based on a weight scaling of a recent set of bids for the HCX prototype magnet. The BNL magnet will be costed from a bottoms-up estimate of time and materials, with a “sanity check” against other (fusion related) costs. Specification documentation related costs will be added to this estimate. These are attributable to both the magnet and the vessels. The vessel costs are also compared with costs for the LDX L coil and cryostat currently under construction by Everson.

The manufacture supervision is an estimate provided by MIT –PSFC to assist in the bidding process and provide technical oversight during the manufacturing and shop testing of the magnet system. This is based on the original cost estimate prepared by Rui Vieira. Testing at MIT would require set-up, instrumentation, cool-down using LN2, and powering to 15T. Rui has recently confirmed the validity of the $60K testing cost at MIT-PSFC. The $55k cost for MIT activities to evaluate bids and watch over fabrication is uncertain, depending on the performance of the vendor. It could be as low as $20k to support evaluation of bids, contract award, with modest MIT-PSFC support for BNL representatives in the shop, or closer to the $55k with many trips to the vendor by MIT representatives to oversee critical processes or resolve difficulties. For a “high-end” vendor like GA, it would be closer to $20k and for Everson it would be closer to $55k.

Table 1. Summary Cost Estimate for Industry fabrication of Pulsed Copper Coil

Vacuum Jacket, and Cryostat

Cost($1000) Inner Two Modules

Cost($1000) Three Modules

Total Magnet Fabrication

126.6

234.4

Vendor Engineering Documentation and Overhead

20

20

He Pressure Can, Central Support tube and Vacuum Jacket

165

165

Support Frame

5

5

Shipping (Guess)

1

1

Total

317.6

425.4

Table 2. Summary Cost Estimate for MIT-PSFC Manufacture Liason, and Final Testing

Cost($1000) Inner Two Modules

Cost($1000) Three Modules

Bid Evaluation/Manufacture Supervision (MIT-PSFC personnel)

55

55

Testing (at MIT-PSFC facility, Only LN2 cooling)

60

60

Total

$115

$115

Contingency:

None of the estimates above include contingency. This is largely a judgment call based on the level of finality in the design, and past experience with similar contracts. In the table below, the FIRE contingency is 40% for the TF – This is largely Advanced Energy System’s judgment with PPPL’s concurrence, and reflects the uncertainty in handling Beryllium copper. The FIRE CS/PF contingency is more representative, as there were only OFHC coils at the time FIRE was costed. This contingency is 33%, but note that the cost/kg with contingency is similar to our estimate for the BNL magnet. In discussions with Brad Smith, he recommends 20-30% for his projects, and in Rui’s original BNL estimate he recommends 10%.

Magnet Comparison’s Based on Cost/kg

Without contingency

With contingency

BNL Pulsed Magnet

$62.7/kg

?

FIRE TF (OFHC Adjusted)

$65.9/kg

$88.3/kg

FIRE CS/PF Magnet Fabrication

$50/kg

$66.67/kg

LDX coil Bid Price

$205/kg – But see below

LDX coil with cost over-runs

$256/kg – But see below

The BNL estimate looks good compared with the FIRE estimates without contingency. The LDX coil cost per kg is large, but these costs are skewed by the very small conductor cross section (2mm X 8mm), low weight and long winding lengths. For such a labor-intensive winding, costs are more likely related to conductor length:

Magnet Comparisons Based on Cost/m of conductor

without contingency

BNL Pulsed Magnet

$73/m conductor length

LDX Fcoil bid

$41/m of winding length

LDX coil with cost over-runs

$54/m of winding length

In this comparison, the BNL estimate looks conservative.

Vessel Comparison’s Based on Cost/kg

without contingency

with contingency

BNL Pulsed Magnet Cryostat

$206/kg

?

HCX Prototype Cryostat, Average bid and BNL Pulsed Magnet basis

$206/kg

C-Mod Vacuum Vessel (actual 1989$)

$165.5/kg

(BPX Estimate 1992$)

?

$106.9/kg (probably was 30%)

HCX Prototype Cryostat, Low bid

$160/kg

LDX L Coil Cryostat Everson Original Contract

$55/kg

The BNL cryostat is closer to the L coil cryostat in degree of complexity. Choosing the HCX cryostat average bid costing as a basis includes an “effective” contingency of nearly 400%.

Magnet Costs:

Unit Costs:

Copper cost= 15 $/kg or $6.82/lb

Ref: Original Rui Vieira quote

Past Cost data: Rui Vieira quoted (11-20-91) $2.80/lb (6.16$/kg) for copper conductor

and $15 /lb ($33/kg)for beryllium copper Elbradur, and Glidcop – these are material costs only

Peter Marston quoted copper conductor as 6.6 $/kg and aluminum (1990) at 3.3 $/kg

Aluminum Cost=$7.50/kg or $3.4/lb(assumed ½ cost of copper)

Fiberglass tape cost = .3562985 $/meter

Price from Carolina Narrow Fabrics Co. $543 for 5000 ft. of 1 inch by .005” s glass tape. E glass is available in .003” thickness.

Technician labor rate per hour= 40 $/hr

Epoxy cost= 3000 $/CuMeter, 50% backup

Ramps/Transitions cost= $80/ramp segment

This is based on G-10 machined end turn filler pieces for the AHF project that are $80 per

piece. There are 2 ramps and two transitions per layer. This was a cost problem for the

LDX F coil and required a $15K additional cost for MIT machining the ramps and fillers,

that Everson had difficulty manufacturing. Water jet cutting of wet-lay up cylinders is

suggested as a cheaper solution.

Magnet Quantities

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

Volume (m^3) 9.2362824e-2

.15393804

.21551326

numturn

624

624

624

weight (kg)

748.04651

1246.7442

1745.4419

conlen (M)

641.4085

1069.0142

1496.6198

tapelen (M)

5131.268

8552.1133

11972.959

epoxyvol (M^3)

8.3126542e-3

1.3854424e-2

1.9396193e-2

Num Ramp/Trans

32

32

32

Magnet Costs

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

costs

cost cu ($)

11220.698

18701.163

26181.628

cost tape ($)

1828.2631

3047.1052

4265.9472

cost lab ($)

10262.536

17104.227

23945.917

cost die ($)

2000

2000

2000

cost Mandrel ($)

10000

16666.667

23333.333

cost of Epoxy ($)

24.937962

41.563271

58.188579

Ramps/transitions

2560

2560

2560

Cost of impregnation

5000

5000

5000

42896.435062

65120.725471

87345.013779

20%Profit/mark-up factor

1.2

1.2

1.2

$51,475.72

$78,144.87

$104,814.02

Total 3 segments

$234,434.61

Total 2 segments

$129,620.59

Total Costs( three segments)

Total Conductor Cost= , 56103.488

Total Fiberglas tape Cost= 9141.3155

Total Die cost= , 6000

Total Winding Labor Cost= , 51312.68

Total Winding Mandrel Cost= , 50000

Total Epoxy Cost= , $124.69

Total Cost for 3 Segments, $234,434 .61This is 234434.61/(748.04651+1246.7442+1745.4419)=$62.7/kg

234434.61/(641.4+1069.0+1496.6) = $73.1/m conductor length

For comparison sake, The cost to wind the HTc LDX levitating coil was $75k This included no conductor, because the conductor was supplied by American Superconductor. The BNL estimate for three segments summarized above - minus the copper cost is $169114.

Winding the LDX Floating Coil

The pancake on the left has been wound and is being held with the wooden clamp. This leaves both terminations at the coil OD. The remainder of the turns are layer wound

Another comparison can be made with the recent fabrication of the LDX floating coil winding at Everson. This was bid at $57k(ref. personal communications with Brad Smith,) and had some cost over-runs, that were peculiar to the delicate reacted Nb3Sn conductor. The contract excluded conductor cost. It was a react and wind process, and the winding proceeded in a manner similar to the planned BNL winding, with the exception that greater care was needed to handle the conductor. . The conductor length at 1500 m was similar to the larger segment of the BNL coil. The conductor weight is small however, because the conductor cross section is only 2 by 8 mm, making the cost per kg relatively large. The impregnation also was similar. The BNL pulsed magnet could be thought of as three LDX floating coils, or three times the $57k or $171K exclusive of the conductor cost. The BNL estimate for three segments minus the copper cost is $169,114. So the BNL estimate compares favorably with the LDX winding experience. The F coil winding weighs about 300 kg, If you add the cost of 300 kg ($4500 at $15/kg) of copper to the $57k the cost is $61,500/300=$205/kg, much higher than estimated for BNL’s magnet.

Support Frame

The frame is made up of 4” square aluminum tubing. 4 verticals of 1.241m length, 2 diagonals of about 1.5m length, 4 longitudinal horizontal members of 1.168m length and 4 triangular legs supporting the center of about 1.0meter length, 6 horizontal transverse members of 1.168m length for about 24m of total length. Assume 30 m with wastage. Assume 3/16 wall thickness. The total weight of the required frame is 30*39.37*16*3/16*.1 lbs/in^3=354 lbs. The material cost is $3.4/lb or $1207 for the 354 lbs of aluminum The piece count is 20 lengths. Assume 2 cuts and one weld per piece length, $5/cut and $10/weld, or $400 to cut and weld the frame. Allow $500 for drilling and misc. plates. Total Vendor cost $2107. Guess $5000 our cost.

June 5- 7, 2001 FIRE External Review 13

TF Coil Cost Estimates

Item

Cost –M

Contingency- M

Total- M

TF Winding Packs

$91.30

$31.03

$122.33

TF cases and structure

$5.50

$1.70

$7.20

Assembly of coils and cases

$2.40

$0.73

$3.13

TF power & cryo Interfaces

$1.80

$0.37

$2.17

Engrg. & Design

$13.60

$3.40

$17.00

Total

$151.83

Weight per coil (winding + case): 43.3 tonnes (95260 lbs.)

Cost per coil: $9.5M;

$/kg= 219.15)

$/ lb.: 99.61

Considering only the TF winding pack without structure, and without contingency, the unit cost would be 91.3/151.83*219.15=$131.7/kg

In this estimate 25% of the conductor is BeCu, which is five times more expensive than OFHC copper.Handling of the Be Cu also figures into the total expense. Setting the Copper-only unit cost as U, then $131.7/kg =5 *.25*U+.75*U.

U then is 131.7/2=$65.9/kg without contingency, $88.3/kg with contingency

CS/PF Coil Cost Estimates

Coil No.

R( m)

N( turns)

I (kA)

NI (kA- T)

Weight-kG

CS1U

0.61

200

64.3

12860

19000

CS1L

0.61

200

64.3

12860

19000

CS2U

0.61

100

73.7

7370

11000

CS2L

0.61

100

73.7

7370

11000

CS3U

0.61

100

73.7

7370

11000

CS3L

0.61

100 73.7

7370

11000

PF1U

0.8

80

57 4560

10000

PF1L

0.8

80

57 4560

10000

PF2U

1.2

80

57 4560

15000

PF2L

1.2

80

57 4560

15000

Total

132000 kG

Solenoid Assembly ,$6.6M+$ 2.2M contingency.= ,$8.8M Total

$/ kg= $66.67,

$50/kg without contingency

$/ lb. = $30.30:

In this version of FIRE, the CS and PFs were OFHC copper.

Cryostat and Vacuum Jacket:

The High Current Experiment (HCX) prototype magnet is being developed by LLNL (N. Martovetsky), Advanced Magnet Lab, and MIT-PSFC. The HCX cryostat was recently (August 2002) bid by MIT-PSFC. The coil was not included in the purchase. It is a superconducting coil, and has a full double walled vessel, along with reasonably complex penetrations, and a lead stack. It weighs about 700 lbs(318kg), and the “reasonable” bids ranged from $51k to $80k (ref. personal communications with Chen Yu Gung of MIT-PSFC.) Using the average bid, the cost per kg is $206/kg, $160/kg based on the low bid. The 3D cryostat finite element model of the BNL cryostat and vacuum jacket, sums to .105 cu. meter which would make it’s weight 1827lbs. The projected cost based on HCX weight scaling would be $130 to $200k. In the summary table, $165k is used for the cryostat and vacuum jacket. The cost per pound based on the HCX cryostat is then 165000/1827=90.3 $/lb. Another cryostat, for which we have cost data, is being purchased for the LDX project. The cryostat for the levitating coil is being fabricated by Everson, and was a part of a coil winding effort as well. Phil Michaels tells me it weighs about 2000 lbs and the original bid price was $49700, for a cost of about $25/lb or $55/kg. This appears to be unreasonably low, but illustrated the conservatism of the selected cost basis. The vacuum vessel purchased for C-Mod in ~1988 cost $165.5/kg.

Volume

Mass

He Cryostat

.08727m^3

759kg

Vacuum Jacket

.01748m^3

152kg

Total

.105m^3

911kg

The 1990 cost estimate for the BPX vacuum vessel worked out to $106.9/kg. So the $206/kg used for the BNL cost basis is conservative or just about right if you account for some escalation. . Sketches of the LDX L coil cryostat, and the HCX prototype cryostat appear below and can be assessed for their similarity with the BNL pulsed magnet cryostat.

Final assembly of the HCX prototype cryostat, which consists of two major subsystems: a lower quadrupole cryostat and an upper cryostat for vapor cool leads (VCL block).

Fig. 2a Side view of the prototype cryostat

Fig. 2b Prototype cryostat, view along the beam line. The overall height to the top flange of VCL block is roughly 130”.

Documentation/Engineering Overhead

The minimum documentation required by the specification, and supplied by the Bidder and Seller is listed in the following table.

Title

Preparation MH

Review/Vendor Comment Resolution MH

Quality Assurance Program Manuel

0,Exists

2

Fabrication Plan

16

2

Winding Test Results

16

2

Winding Procedures

24

2

Epoxy Fill Sketches

4

2

Notice of Electrical Tests

2

2

Notice of Flow Tests

2

2

Notice of Helium Vessel Proof Test

2

2

Notice of Vacuum Jacket Proof Test

2

2

Deviation Request Forms

0

0

Non-Conformance Forms

0

0

Final As-Built Drawings

40

20

Conductor Witness Samples

2

2

Special Handling Instructions

2

2

Totals

112

42

This is 152 MH of mixed Engineer Draftsman and/or Technician time assume a labor rate of $100 this is $15200. Guestimate a mark-up/profit - use $20k

Rui Vieira’s Original Quote for MIT-PSFC Services:

Table 2. Budgetary estimate for design, fabrication supervision, and testing and installation of pulsed copper magnets January 2, 2002 - October 31, 2002

Person-Months

Funds

Phase

One

Phase

Two

Phase

Three

Phase

One

Phase

Two

Phase

Three

Summary

ENGR

FAB

TEST

Magnet

Design

Fabr. Supervision

Acceptance

Testing

ENGINEERING PERSONNEL

3.2

2.54

1.7

$48,500

$37,000

$22,000

$107,500

OTHER PERSONNEL

Designers

2.9

0

0

$26,000

$0

$0

$26,000

Technicians

0

0

2

$0

$0

$18,000

$18,000

Other(Allocated Admin. Support)

$5,000

$4,000

$4,000

$13,000

TOTAL OTHER PERSONNEL

$31,000

$4,000

$22,000

$57,000

TOTAL SALARIES, WAGES

& FRINGE

BENE

FITS

$79,500

$41,000

$44,000

$164,500

TRAVEL 1. Domestic

$2,400

$13,000

$5,200

$20,600

OTHER COSTS

1. Materials and Supplies

$800

$300

$750

$1,850

2. Liquid Nitrogen

$0

$0

$5,000

$5,000

3. Computer Services

$2,000

$450

$1,000

$3,450

4. Electrical Components

$0

$0

$2,000

$2,000

5. Mechanical Components

$0

$0

$1,800

$1,800

6. Other: Allocated Lab Expense

$300

$250

$250

$800

TOTAL OTHER DIRECT COSTS

$3,100

$1,000

$10,800

$14,900

TOTAL COSTS of PROJECT

$85,000

$55,000

$60,000

$200,000

Notes:

1) All costs are fully loaded

2) Phase I duration: 4 Months, Jan. 2, 2002 - April 30, 2002

3) Phase II duration: May 1, 2002 - August 31, 2002

4) Phase III duration: September 1, 2002 - October 31, 2002

�

FE model of LDX Vacuum Vessel, and LN2 Can used to check weights. element

volume is 5018 cu in (twice this half section for a weight of 1455

This is missing the helium can, shields and coil supports, but these

Shouldn’t be too heavy. Phil’s quoted 2000 lbs seems reasonable.

Quadrupole Cryostat

Transition Box

VCL Block

Quadrupole Cryostat

�

LDX levitating coil cryostat

_1060696238.bin