Counting CrimeMethods for Counting Crime?

Current Crime Numbers/TrendsExplaining the Crime Drop

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Methods of Measuring Crime

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Uniform Crime Reports

Self- Report Surveys

Victim Surveys

Uniform Crime Reports

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Based on Crimes Reported to the Police

Based on a population unit of 100,000 people

Divided into two representativecategories: Indexed and non-Indexed

Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s

Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate

Uniform Crime Reports

Part I “Index” Crimes◦ Criminal Homicide◦ Forcible Rape◦ Robbery◦ Aggravated assault◦ Burglary◦ Larceny/theft◦ Motor vehicle theft◦ Arson

Part II Crimes◦ All others except traffic

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Violent Crime

Non-violentCrime

Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR

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Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime

Methodological Hiccups

• Counting Rule• Reporting Practices• Attempted vs. Completed

Crimes

The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports

National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)

Maintained by the F.B.I.Twenty-two crime categoriesMore information on each crime in each

categoryData compiled based on incidents, not

arrests.

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Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law

Advantages◦Get at “Dark Figure of Crime”◦“Victimless Crimes”◦Compare to “official data”◦Measure theoretical concepts and connect with criminal behavior

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Self-Report Surveys

Percent Reporting Nonmedical Drug Use, by Type of Drug, Past 12 Months (UMD Survey, 2012)

Prescription sleeping med.

Prescription sedative

Other illicit drug (besides pot)

Prescription pain med.

Prescription stimulant

Any prescription drug

Marijuana

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

5.9%

6.2%

10.4%

16.1%

24.2%

35.1%

49.5%

Self-Reported Academic Dishonesty, Past 12 Months

Lied to an instructor about missing an exam

Received illicit copy of an exam

Looked at another student's exam

Falsified information for a term paper

Plagiarized a term paper

5.9%

2.9%

30.1%

4.4%

3.0%

Self-Report Surveys

Disadvantages◦May underestimate “chronic offenders”

◦People Can Lie◦Survey Methodology ProblemsSeriousness of Offense

◦No “National” survey for trendsException = MTF for drugs/alcohol

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National Crime Victimization

Survey1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals2. Nationally representative sample3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations:

Little information about offendersCannot assess some crimesLimitations of Survey Research

REVIEW

UCR◦Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known to

policeSelf-report

◦Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending

NCVS◦Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations

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Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime

Crime Trends◦Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable?◦Why?

Correlates of Crime◦What factors are related to crime?◦Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender, Social Class?

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Crime Trends

UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s◦The decrease is being driven by a sharp decline in violent crime among juveniles.

NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime◦Some difference with UCR data

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Duluth Violent Crime 1986-201019

MN vs. National Violent Crime (per 100,000 citizens)

Homicide Robbery Rape0

20406080

100120140

MNU.S.

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Explaining Crime Trends

◦The usual suspectsAge Composition The EconomySocial malaiseGuns—Availability Justice Policy—Police or Prisons

◦Reality? Difficult to predict trends

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The Crime Drop (1990s-present)Drop driven by young males in inner city

areas◦Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars◦The “blunt” era

Change in inner city culture ◦Mass incarceration

Fringe Explanations Freakonomics: Was it Abortion? Was it a drop in lead exposure?

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Correlates of Crime

Demographics◦Age◦Sex◦Race

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GENDER AND CRIME

UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that males are more likely than females to commit criminal acts◦ Socialization?◦ Biological differences?◦ Feminist explanations

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RACE AND CRIME

SR weak if any relationshipOfficial data strong relationshipIs relationship due to bias?

How police patrol and interact with minorities Disparity in how CJS processes minorities?

NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime?

Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture

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The Age-Crime Curve

Age and Crime

Crime is “young” persons gameHOWEVER

◦There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood

◦The “Chronic” 6%

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Continuity of Crime

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Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults.

Then and ………….. NOW

Crime Victimization

Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically ◦Most crime is intra-racial ◦Victimization for most crimes most likely

among Young Male Urban

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What is counted, “counts”

We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime◦How to assess insider trading, environmental

crimes, corporate crime? Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a

settlement

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