covering the bases
DESCRIPTION
Covering The Bases. Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D. Economic Damages - Bases. Life Expectancy / WLE Continuation of Care Plan Medical Inflation / Attendant Care Presentation. Reasons for Cost Increases. New Technology Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud Medical R&D Aging Population. Life Expectancy. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Covering The BasesCovering The Bases
Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D. Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D.
Economic Damages - Economic Damages - BasesBases
•Life Expectancy / WLE
•Continuation of Care Plan
•Medical Inflation / Attendant Care
•Presentation
•Life Expectancy / WLE
•Continuation of Care Plan
•Medical Inflation / Attendant Care
•Presentation
•New Technology•Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud•Medical R&D•Aging Population
•New Technology•Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud•Medical R&D•Aging Population
Reasons for Cost Reasons for Cost IncreasesIncreases
Reasons for Cost Reasons for Cost IncreasesIncreases
Life ExpectancyLife ExpectancyLife ExpectancyLife Expectancy
•Census Data - 2000
•Optimal Care - Based on L.E.
•Census Data - 2000
•Optimal Care - Based on L.E.
•Routine M.D. Visits•Therapies•ADL’s•Diagnostics•Orthopedic Equipment•Supplies
•Routine M.D. Visits•Therapies•ADL’s•Diagnostics•Orthopedic Equipment•Supplies
Categories of NeedCategories of NeedCategories of NeedCategories of Need
•Attendant CareAttendant Care•Attendant CareAttendant Care
YEAR
200020012002200320042005
YEAR
200020012002200320042005
MEDICAL CARE
4.3%4.8%5.1%4.5%5.0%4.3%
MEDICAL CARE
4.3%4.8%5.1%4.5%5.0%4.3%
Year to Year Changes Year to Year Changes in Medical Care Costsin Medical Care Costs
FROM YEAR
FROM YEAR
TO YEARTO
YEAR# OF YEARS# OF YEARS
ALLMEDICAL
CARE
ALLMEDICAL
CARE
MEDICAL CARE
SERVICES
MEDICAL CARE
SERVICES
PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
MEDICAL CARE
COMMODI-TIES,
PRESCRIP-TIONS AND
DRUGS
MEDICAL CARE
COMMODI-TIES,
PRESCRIP-TIONS AND
DRUGS
HOSPITAL ROOM AND RELATED SERVICES
HOSPITAL ROOM AND RELATED SERVICES
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
4.2%
4.3%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.2%
4.3%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
4.8%
4.5%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
4.8%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
6.3%
6.6%
6.8%
6.8%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
6.3%
6.6%
6.8%
6.8%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
Sample CaseSample CaseSample CaseSample Case
•White Female•White Female•Age 2.0•Age 2.0•Life Expectancy = 79.7 years•Life Expectancy = 79.7 years•24 Hour Nursing Care (HOME)•24 Hour Nursing Care (HOME)•$30.50/Hour/LPN•$30.50/Hour/LPN•Discount Factor = 4.5%•Discount Factor = 4.5%
Model 1: Growth Rate = 3.4%Present Value = $14.36m
Model 1: Growth Rate = 3.4%Present Value = $14.36m
Model 2: Growth Rate = Discount rate
Present Value = $21.08m
Model 2: Growth Rate = Discount rate
Present Value = $21.08mModel 3: Growth Rate = 5.4% (25yr.
Avg.)
Present Value = $30.01m
Model 3: Growth Rate = 5.4% (25yr. Avg.)
Present Value = $30.01m
ModelsModels
Testimony - EconomistTestimony - Economist
• Long Version / Short Long Version / Short VersionVersion
• Question / AnswerQuestion / Answer• Charts / ELMO / OverheadCharts / ELMO / Overhead
•Recent Life Expectancy Tables•Medical Vs General Inflation•Sample - Goods / Services
1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90’s
•Recent Life Expectancy Tables•Medical Vs General Inflation•Sample - Goods / Services
1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90’s
Trial ChartsTrial Charts
$25.0 MILLION$25.0 MILLION
$28.0 MILLION$28.0 MILLION
$51.6 MILLION$51.6 MILLION
CONSULTING ECONOMIST
PHONE (561) 622-0330CELL (561) 346-7828FAX (561) 624-2854TOLL FREE (800) 662-0330
CONSULTING ECONOMIST
PHONE (561) 622-0330CELL (561) 346-7828FAX (561) 624-2854TOLL FREE (800) 662-0330
BERNARD F. PETTINGILL, PH.D.BERNARD F. PETTINGILL, PH.D.
#93 Sandbourne LaneP.G.A. NATIONALPALM BEACH GARDENS, FL 33418E-mail: [email protected]
#93 Sandbourne LaneP.G.A. NATIONALPALM BEACH GARDENS, FL 33418E-mail: [email protected]