covid-19 facts and figures · 5/15/2020 · for professional investors only research analysis...
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Research Analysis
Last Contagion Figures
May 14: 96,334 total new cases (+2.2 %), vs 88,215 the previous day and 84,738 5-day average. Now confirmed 4,521,993 cases worldwide (213 countries and territories) vs 3,913,645 cases last week.
More than 303,000 people have died (6.7% of confirmed cases) and more than 1,701,500 have recovered (37.6%).
Europe: 1,888,325 cases; daily increase of 24,303, vs 22,654 in the previous day and 24,358 5-day average.
USA: 1,457,593 cases; daily increase of 27,245, vs 21,712 in the previous day and 22,056 5-day average.
Brazil recorded its highest daily increase in cases, with 13,761 new case on May 14. It is now the 6th most hit country with 202,918 cases and 13,993 deaths.
As countries are moving out of the lockdown, people’s mobility is starting to move back to pre-covid levels.
COVID-19 UPDATE
Facts & Figures – 15/05/2020
Issued May 15, 2020
2 | Generali Investments – Covid-19 Update
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY www.generali-investments.com
Research Analysis
3 | Generali Investments – Covid-19 Update
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Research Analysis
Note: Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, JHU, Worldometers.info, state and national government health departments, local media reports, Google Mobility Report. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. For additional information regarding the data collected and presented in this document please contact [email protected]
Total 1-Day 7D avg Total 1-Day 7D avg
USA 1,457,593 + 27,245 + 23,567 86,912 + 1,715 + 1,426
Spain 272,646 + 1,551 + 2,256 27,321 + 217 + 179
Russia 252,245 + 9,974 + 10,726 2,305 + 93 + 97
UK 233,151 + 3,446 + 3,777 33,614 + 428 + 428
Italy 223,096 + 992 + 1,034 31,368 + 262 + 201
Brazil 202,918 + 13,761 + 9,604 13,993 + 835 + 686
France 178,870 + 810 + 583 27,425 + 351 + 205
Germany 174,975 + 877 + 792 7,928 + 67 + 77
Turkey 144,749 + 1,635 + 1,575 4,007 + 55 + 52
Iran 114,533 + 1,808 + 1,628 6,854 + 71 + 53
TOP 10 most hit countries
Cases DeathsCountry
Total 1-Day 7D avg Total 1-Day 7D avg
Americas 1,978,034 + 52,868 + 43,019 117,710 + 3,218 + 2,738
Europe 1,888,325 + 24,303 + 25,417 163,453 + 1,753 + 1,574
Asia 486,388 + 16,121 + 15,352 14,574 + 275 + 282
Africa 77,002 + 3,029 + 3,097 2,578 + 71 + 71
Oceania 8,590 + 9 + 14 119 - -
Others 721 - - 15 - -
* Regional class i fication according to the ECDC
CountryCases Deaths
Most hit regions ex China
Transmission rates are modelled according to an exponential framework with rolling adjustments. The increase in total number of cases in a day ‘t’, ‘𝑁𝑡’, depends on the transmission rate ‘a’ so that
𝑁𝑡 = (1 + 𝑎)𝑁𝑡−1. Hence, the general evolution from some time ‘0’
can be described as 𝑁𝑡 = 𝑁0 𝑒𝑎𝑡. Taking logs, 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑁𝑡/𝑁0) = 𝑎𝑡 which can be modelled by simple linear OLS. The transmission rate ‘a’ is unlikely to be constant: in fact, it is greatly reduced by social distancing and other containment measures. For example, in Italy it began at 0.45 (which means cases are doubling in 1.5 days) and now stands below 0.01. Recur-sive estimation is done on a rolling window in order to gauge the tendency of ‘a’ over time and apply the appropriate transmission rate day by day. Future transmission rates are extrapolated from the tendency of 𝑎𝑡 in the last days; then the future number of cases
is estimated as 𝑁𝑡+1 = (1 + 𝑎𝑡+1)𝑁𝑡.
Short-term forecasting model for total cases
Daily deaths rates are modelled according to an exponential frame-work with rolling adjustments. The framework used is similar to the one presented above for total cases. The number of deaths is per-haps the most precisely reported among the quantities of interest, the infected cases being so heavily dependent on the testing. In turn, the number of deaths has been taken as a robust (backwards) predictor of the total number of infected, so that, besides being im-portant in its own right, projecting the evolution of deaths in time can give a good estimate of the evolution in total cases, and hence of the number of active cases needing intensive care and such var-iables of interest to policy makers. Not all countries report covid-19 deaths in the same way (some only count deaths registered in hos-pitals or exclude those resulting from the worsening of pre-existing conditions) but as long as the counting method is consistent over-time the models will be able to approximate actual numbers.
Short-term forecasting model for total deaths
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Research Analysis
Main news
More than 140 past and present world leaders have insisted than any eventual Covid-19 vaccines and treatments should be made available to everyone free of charge. In an open letter to the World Health Assembly they asked that any vaccine should not be patented.
The Italian government has approved a €55 billion stimulus package aimed at helping businesses and families.
The US CDC has warned doctors about a rare inflammatory condition in children linked to Covid-19.
Japan has lifted the state of emergency in the majority of the country, maintaining it for Tokyo and Osaka.
Schools have reopened in Finland despite warnings from the teacher’s union that it may not be safe.
Lloyd’s of London estimates world’s insurers will suffer around $203 billion in losses from the coronavirus this year.
The UN is forecasting a 3.2% contraction of the world economy, pushing 34.3 million people into extreme poverty.
Tukey’s steps in support of the economy reached an overall value of 240 billion lira (€32 bn).
The Unites States reported a record $738 billion budget deficit in April.
India’s PM Narendra Modi announced a $270 billion economic package to boost growth.
A WHO study has indicated that coronavirus may kill 150,000 people in Africa and infect 230 million people in a year.
The Slovenian government is calling an official end to its coronavirus epidemic.
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