covid-19 facts and figures · 6/19/2020 · for professional investors only research analysis last...
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Research Analysis
Last Contagion Figures
June 18: 140,370 total new cases (+1.7%), vs 145,426 the previous day and 136,286 7-day average. Now confirmed 8,497,817 cases worldwide (213 countries and territories) vs 7,543,813 cases last week.
453,321 people have died (5.3% of confirmed cases) and 4,303,623 have recovered (50.6%).
Europe (incl. Russia): 2,504,108 cases; daily increase of 18,290. USA: 2,191,052 cases; daily increase of 27,762.
Brazil: 983,359 cases, daily increase of 23,050. Russia: 561,091 cases; daily increase of 7,790.
India: 381,091 cases, daily increase of 13,827. Peru: 244,388 cases, daily increase of 3,480.
Chile reported that accounting glitches led to the omission of 31,422 cases on June 17. Chile has not provided an historical allocation of these cases but indicated that new cases on June 17 were 4,757. We allocated the additional cases proportionally over the historical time series instead of adding them all on a single day.
COVID-19 UPDATE
Facts & Figures – 19/06/2020
Issued June 19, 2020
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Total 1-Day 7D avg Total 1-Day 7D avg
USA 2,191,052 + 27,762 + 23,958 118,434 + 717 + 659
Brazil 983,359 + 23,050 + 25,387 47,869 + 1,204 + 973
Russia 561,091 + 7,790 + 8,379 7,660 + 182 + 161
India 381,091 + 13,827 + 11,830 12,604 + 342 + 586
UK 300,469 + 1,218 + 1,294 42,288 + 135 + 144
Spain 292,348 + 585 + 366 27,136 - -
Peru 244,388 + 3,480 + 4,229 7,461 + 204 + 193
Italy 238,159 + 331 + 288 34,514 + 66 + 50
Chile 225,103 + 4,475 + 6,394 3,841 + 226 + 170
Iran 197,647 + 2,596 + 2,499 9,272 + 87 + 98
TOP 10 most hit countries
Cases DeathsCountry
Total 1-Day 7D avg Total 1-Day 7D avg
North America 2,537,691 + 35,923 + 31,082 148,121 + 1,566 + 1,284
Europe 2,504,108 + 18,290 + 18,573 190,898 + 608 + 570
South America 1,628,253 + 37,895 + 41,288 66,924 + 1,856 + 1,507
Asia ex China 1,456,037 + 39,516 + 36,815 35,155 + 862 + 1,048
Africa 278,677 + 8,017 + 8,475 7,450 + 201 + 226
Oceania 9,005 + 22 + 16 124 - -
Others 721 - - 15 - -
* Regional class i fication according to the United Nations Geoscheme
CountryCases Deaths
Most hit regions
Transmission rates are modelled according to an exponential framework with rolling adjustments. The increase in total number of cases in a day ‘t’, ‘𝑁𝑡’, depends on the transmission rate ‘a’ so that
𝑁𝑡 = (1 + 𝑎)𝑁𝑡−1. Hence, the general evolution from some time ‘0’
can be described as 𝑁𝑡 = 𝑁0 𝑒𝑎𝑡. Taking logs, 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑁𝑡/𝑁0) = 𝑎𝑡 which can be modelled by simple linear OLS. The transmission rate ‘a’ is unlikely to be constant: in fact, it is greatly reduced by social distancing and other containment measures. For example, in Italy it began at 0.45 (which means cases are doubling in 1.5 days) and now stands below 0.005. Re-cursive estimation is done on a rolling window in order to gauge the tendency of ‘a’ over time and apply the appropriate transmission rate day by day. Future transmission rates are extrapolated from the tendency of 𝑎𝑡 in the last days; then the future number of cases
is estimated as 𝑁𝑡+1 = (1 + 𝑎𝑡+1)𝑁𝑡.
Short-term forecasting model for total cases
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Note: Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, JHU, Worldometers.info, state and national government health departments, local media reports, Google Mobility Report. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. For additional information regarding the data collected and presented in this document please contact [email protected]
Main news
The WHO has halted the trial test of hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19 as it showed that it does not result in reduction of mortality of hospitalized patients.
Honduran President is being treated in hospital for pneumonia after he tested positive for Covid-19 this week.
Chile further tightened restriction in the capital, allowing residents to leave their homes just twice a week.
German biotech firm CureVac will launch a human trial of an experimental covid-19 vaccine. The first results could be available in September or October.
Canada, US and Mexico extended travel restrictions until July 21, agreeing to keep borders closed.
A UK-led clinical trial on dexamethasone showed a significant reduction in mortality in those requiring oxygen or ven-tilation.
Daily deaths rates are modelled according to an exponential frame-work with rolling adjustments. The framework used is similar to the one presented above for total cases. The number of deaths is per-haps the most precisely reported among the quantities of interest, the infected cases being so heavily dependent on the testing. In turn, the number of deaths has been taken as a robust (backwards) predictor of the total number of infected, so that, besides being im-portant in its own right, projecting the evolution of deaths in time can give a good estimate of the evolution in total cases, and hence of the number of active cases needing intensive care and such var-iables of interest to policy makers. Not all countries report covid-19 deaths in the same way (some only count deaths registered in hos-pitals or exclude those resulting from the worsening of pre-existing conditions) but as long as the counting method is consistent over-time the models will be able to approximate actual numbers.
Short-term forecasting model for total deaths
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The UK lowered the country’s alert level from 4 to 3, meaning the transmission is no longer high or rising exponentially.
A potential coronavirus vaccine under development by Clover Biopharmaceuticals in China has begun human trials.
Spain announced a €4.25 billion plan to help the tourism industry recover from the covid crisis.
Portugal’s parliament approved in approved a supplementary budget of €4.3 billion to support the economy.
Germany introduced a new local lockdown as 650 workers of a meat processing plant tested positive for Covid-19.
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