covid-19 global executive brief - business sweden...business sweden updated 16 june 07:00 cet...

Business Sweden’s Global Executive Brief

1

World at the crossroads: Recovery, relaunch or relapse?

July 7th 2020

This brief aims to give executives information on the development and recovery process post COVID-19 in selected global markets. For a monthly update sign-up here.

https://marketing.business-sweden.se/acton/media/28818/keep-the-wheels-turning-in-the-time-of-corona

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

2

● Executive summary

● Monthly feature

● Current global situation

● Regional overview

● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

While advanced G20 economies have announced trillions in fiscal measures, the

pandemic is far from over with daily cases reaching record highs in June

3

+86%

- 5% GDP

Pandemic center has shifted, seeing substantial growth of new

confirmed cases in the U.S., Brazil and India

~9 tn USD

Pandemic status

Economic impact

Global increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases since June. Up

from 6.14 million June 1st to11.42 million July 6th

Fear of second wave in Europe as many countries lift

restrictions and start vacations

Executive summary

750 bn EUR

Source: Our World In Data, WHO, IMF, Business Sweden Analysis Note: *GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected

EU recovery package announced. For more details

see Monthly Feature

Projected globally for 2020, as of June 2020*, further downward

revisions are expected

In fiscal measures announced by G20 economies.

~4 tn USD in additional spending or foregone revenues and ~5 tn USD in equity injections, loans,

asset purchase or debt assumption

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

4


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 5

● Germany assumes the six-month rotating European Council presidency in July, a crucial period that will determine the future of the European Union

● The European Commission has proposed both a new long-term budget of 1.1 tn EUR, as well as an additional 750 bn EUR recovery fund called Next Generation EU. The timeline is urgent as a deal must be struck before the end of 2020

● The European Council will meet in person July 17th-18th to discuss proposals related to the recovery fund and the long-term budget, and hopes are high in Germany and France for an agreement over the course of the summer

● Like most EU funding, a majority of the 750 bn EUR proposal will be distributed directly back to the Member States, concentrated on the most severely impacted regions. The current proposal sees more than half of the 310 bn EUR in grants going to Italy, Spain, France, Poland and Germany

Source: Politico, Business Sweden analysis

EU prepares for a budget summit but faces

difficulty reaching agreement on recovery fundThe most important thing for Swedish companies to understand is how EU funding is distributed – most funding is distributed back to countries and managed on a national or regional level.

To increase likelihood of accessing EU funding, companies should understand what policies each region or country prioritizes and ensure their products or solutions match these priority areas.

From our office in The Hague we also cover EU Affairs and have extensive experience helping companies to understand EU funding and potential strategies to access funding or investment.

Recommendations for Swedish companies

● Be prepared as major decisions will be made in the upcoming weeks this summer

● Contact Business Sweden to receive guidance in understanding the complex framework involving the different EU, national, and regional authorities handling EU funds

● Ensure your solutions match these policies to increase the likelihood of accessing EU funds

Tomas KorsemanTrade & Invest Commissioner, Benelux

Acting Market Area Director, Central &

Western Europe

[email protected]

“

“

Monthly feature

Contact us to access:“Unlocking EU funding – a guide for Swedish companies”

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 6

The EU’s recovery strategy involves

investment in green and digital solutions

European Green Deal

● A renovation wave to modernize buildings and critical infrastructure including one million charging points for electric vehicles

● A more circular economy to eliminate foreign dependencies

● Farm-to-fork strategy to support affordable, safe and sustainable food

● Just Transition Fund focuses on re-skilling workers and creating opportunities for SMEs in the transition to low-carbon economy

POLICY FUNDAMENTALS

Digitalization

● Investment into better connectivity and Europe’s industrial and technological presence including 5G, AI, and cloud data

● A digital economy as a motor for innovation & new jobs

● New cybersecurity strategy to boost EU level cooperation

● Digital Services Act to safeguard security of online platforms

● Data Act to outline legislation on data sharing and governance

750 bn EUR

recovery

fund

560 bn

EUR to

Member

States

● The Recovery and Resilience Facility will offer direct support for Member States to carry out investments and reforms

● Focus is on green and digital transitions and the resilience of national economies, linked to the EU priorities

● Support for all Member States, but focused on the most affected regions

Business Sweden’s guide to EU funding

● Every seven years, the EU negotiates a Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)– a long-term budget that helps to give stability and predictability to EU financing

● This budget helps to translate EU policy goals into funding for different initiatives

● Nearly 75% of the EU funding is re-distributed to the Member States – and is managed by regional authorities in each country

― In Sweden e.g., a large amount of funding is channeled through Tillväxtverket

● Very little funding is managed by the EU itself, and allocated on a project basis for solving challenges on a European level

● To access EU funding, it is vital to understand which authority manages funding, and identify which policies, sectors, and types of projects are funded in each country

● What sectors and types of projects that receive funding may differ between regions

Monthly feature

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

7


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 8

Confirmed cases are increasing in middle income countries, most high income

countries are decreasing, but the curve is moving upwards due to recent U.S. spike

62 049

1 430

40 361

86 455

2020-05-01

40 000

2020-04-01 2020-07-01

30 000

10 000

2020-03-01

20 000

90 000

2020-02-01

50 000

2020-06-012020-01-01

0

70 000

60 000

80 000

Lower middle income

Low income

Upper middle income

High income

Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per income level, 7-day average until July 6th, 2020

Source: Our World in Data

The recent increase in new

confirmed COVID-19 cases in the

U.S. is impacting the curve for

high income countries

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 9

Of all major global economies, only China is

expected to see positive GDP growth in 2020

Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-19

2020 2020 2021 2022

World 3.1% -4.6% 6.7% 4.5%

EuroZone 1.0% -7.8% 6.3% 3.1%

Middle East 2.3% -6.8% 4.8% 4.3%

Africa 3.0% -5.8% 5.8% 4.9%

USA 1.7% -6.1% 6.3% 3.8%

China 6.0% +0.8% 8.3% 5.4%

Japan 0.3% -6.5% 3.2% 3.3%

Germany 0.7% -6.1% 5.3% 3.2%

India 6.0% -5.7% 10.8% 5.6%

Real GDP projections 2020-2022, pre and post COVID-19 impact

Source: Business Sweden Analysis Note: Purchasing power adjusted GDP projections as per June 15th2020

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

A majority of APAC and EMEA markets have left lockdown and are gradually

recovering, while Latin America is still highly locked down

10

AMERICAS

MarketLockdown

stateEconomic recovery

Canada

USA

Brazil

Colombia

Mexico

Chile

EMEA

MarketLockdown


Austria

Czech Republic

France

Netherlands

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Italy

Morocco

Norway

Russia

South Africa

Sweden

Turkey

UAE

Poland

Saudi Arabia

Spain

UK

Kenya

APAC

MarketLockdown


China

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Japan

South Korea

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Australia

India

Philippines

Source: Business Sweden Analysis

For more details, please visit our interactive map

Lockdown state Economic recovery

Very high Standstill

HighEarly open with

restrictions

MediumMostly open and in

recovery

Low Open and growing

Normal Pre-crisis level

Legend

https://sagodigitalcorecfront.z6.web.core.windows.net/

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

11


● Monthly feature



− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

The world is gradually reopening, with fiscal measures in place in most countries

and greatest amount of green recovery initiatives seen in Europe

12

Americas EMEA APAC

● Americas region currently in early stages of recovery with mixed levels of restrictions. Most manufacturing activity is picking up, but overall travel and social functions are still quite limited

● Chile is still in strict lockdown compared to other countries in the Americas

● U.S. and Canada are farthest along in re-opening; however, the U.S. is seeing increased spikes in new confirmed cases, forcing some cities and states to slow or put a pause on the re-opening process

● Colombia, Canada and Brazil are either re-activating paused infrastructure projects or investing in new activity

● Stimulus focuses around tax, credits or employment subsidies; few have current recovery plans surrounding corporate transformation or sustainable initiatives

● European countries are mostly open and in recovery, most implementing support and stimulus packages across industries, company sizes and to households

● Most European countries have defined sustainable recovery plans, introducing concrete measures for a green transformation

● Restrictions to travel exist in most parts of Middle East & Africa while business operations are reduced or open. Fiscal and financial measures are implemented

● Hospitality industries in Southern Europe as well as in the UAE will be hit hard due to travel restrictions and low customer demand

● Oil dependent Middle East countries are expected to be hit hard by lowered oil prices

● Businesses and societal functions are back to normal in Northeast Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), while other regions are on the trajectory to re-open

● Export volumes have not yet recovered and some supply chain disruptions remain

● China’s industrial resumption rate is estimated to be ~90% of the pre-crisis level, but main economic challenge now is weak external demand and some returning lockdowns in Beijing and close provinces

● Many Asian economies have announced increased spending on infrastructure projects to spur economic recovery

● Asia’s green recovery is led by South Korea’s Green New Deal and China’s additional investments in electric vehicles

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

13


● Monthly feature



− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 14

Americas region has mixed levels of restrictions, with most related to businesses

and industry being lifted, while travel and social interactions remain limited

Canada

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS RESTRICTIONS ON SOCIAL INTERACTIONS BUSINESS OPERATIONS STATUS

Domestic InternationalForeigner

entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail

BusinessManufacturing Logistics

Open Partial Partial Yes Yes Partial Closed Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sept N/A

USA Open Partial Yes No Partial Partial Partial Reduced Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Mexico Open Open No No Partial Yes Closed Reduced Reduced Open

N/A N/A 15 August N/A N/A

Brazil Open Partial Yes No Yes Partial Closed Reduced Open Reduced

1 August 1 August N/A N/A 8 September N/A N/A

Chile Closed Closed Yes Yes Yes Yes Closed Closed Reduced Reduced

10 July N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Colombia Closed Closed Yes Yes Partial Partial Partial Reduced Reduced Open

15 July 1 September 1 September N/A 15 July 15 July 15 July 15 July 15 July 15 July

Restrictions per category and date of lift or next phase

Regional overview: Americas

Lockdown state Very high High Medium Low Normal

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

15


● Monthly feature



− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 16

Northern and Central Europe have few restrictions related to travel and social

interactions, business activities are almost fully operational

Sweden



entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail


Open Partial Partial No Partial Partial No Open Open Open

15 July 7 July N/A N/A

Denmark Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

TBD TBD TBD 8 July N/A August

Norway Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

15 July 15 July 15 July 1 September N/A August

Finland Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial No Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A 1 October 31 July

UK Open Open No Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A September

Netherlands Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Reduced Reduced Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

France Open Partial Partial Partial Partial No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A


Regional overview: EMEA


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 17

Southern and Eastern Europe are mostly open or partially open, aside from

Russia that still has travel restrictions in place

Italy



entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail


Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Closed Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 14 September

Spain Open Open No No Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A 1 September

Russia Open Closed Yes Yes Partial Partial Closed Open Open Reduced

August August N/A N/A N/A 1 September N/A

Czech

Republic

Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Austria Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open Open

15 Jun N/A N/A 30 August N/A

Germany Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Partial Open Open Open

31 Aug 31 Aug N/A N/A After summer

Poland Open Partial Partial Partial Yes Partial Partial Open Reduced Open





#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 18

Aside from Turkey, travel is restricted in Middle East & Africa, while most

business operations are almost fully back to normal

UAE



entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail


Partial Partial Partial Yes Partial Partial Closed Reduced Open Reduced

N/A 7 July 7 July N/A N/A 6 July September N/A N/A

Saudi Arabia Open Partial Yes Yes Partial No Closed Reduced Reduced Reduced


Kenya Partial Closed Yes Yes Yes Partial Closed Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A 7 July N/A 1 September N/A

Morocco Open Partial Yes Yes Partial Partial Closed Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A 10 July 10 July 15 September

Turkey Open Open No No Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A

South Africa Partial Closed Yes Yes Partial No Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A




#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

19


● Monthly feature



− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 20

Societal functions and manufacturing have resumed in Asia and Australia, but

entry restrictions and mandatory quarantine are challenging for travelers

China

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS RESTRICTIONS ON SOCIAL INTERACTIONS BUSINESS OPERATION STATUS


entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail


Open Partial Yes Yes No No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A

India Partial Partial Yes Yes Partial Partial Closed Reduced Open Open

31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July

Japan Open Partial Yes Yes Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A August N/A N/A

South Korea Open Partial Partial Yes Partial Partial Open Open Open Reduced


Australia Partial Closed Yes Yes Partial Partial Partial Reduced Open Reduced

10-20 July 2021 2021 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Hong Kong Open Partial Partial Yes Partial No Partial Reduced Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A 16 July N/A 13 July N/A

Taiwan Open Partial Partial Yes No No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A


Regional overview: APAC


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN 21

Thailand and Vietnam have mostly resumed and South East Asia is gradually

lifting restrictions, but some travel restrictions remain in place

Philippines

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS RESTRICTIONS ON SOCIAL INTERACTIONS BUSINESS OPERATION STATUS


entry ban

Mandatory

quarantine

Public

gathering

Work from

homeEducation

Retail


Reduced Reduced Yes Yes Partial Partial Closed Reduced Reduced Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 24 Aug N/A N/A

Singapore Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Reduced Reduced Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Malaysia Open Partial Partial Partial Partial No Partial Reduced Open Reduced

31 Aug 31 Aug 31 Aug 31 Aug N/A 31 Aug N/A

Indonesia Open Partial Partial Yes Partial Partial Closed Open Open Reduced

1 Sept N/A N/A N/A N/A Q1 2021 N/A

Thailand Open Closed Partial Yes Partial Partial Open Open Open Open

1 Aug 1 Sept N/A N/A N/A

Vietnam Open Closed Partial Yes No No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A


Regional overview: APAC


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

22


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

The U.S. has seen a recent spike in COVID-19 cases causing a

delay in reopening phases in certain regions across the country

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 13.92 % of GDP

• The IRS deferred the federal tax-filling and tax-payment

deadline with states also deferring state taxes for 90 days

until July 15, 2020 without penalties or interest

• A one-time payment of 1,200 USD was sent out to individuals

making less than 75,000 USD per year or a household with income

less than 112,500 USD per year

• Federal funds rate were lowered by 150bp in March to 0-

0.25bp

23

RECOVERY OVERVIEW

LOCKDOWN MEASURES AND CURRENT STATUS

EFFECTS ON BUSINESS OPERATIONS

Current

State

States greatly vary on the level of openness with some states having

societal functions back to normal and others still observing lockdown

measures. A recent spike in COVID-19 cases has prompted states to

pause or roll back their phased opening plans. Work from home is still

encouraged for non-essential businesses, while most retail and

hospitality businesses operate with reduced capacity and must observe

social distancing and safety guidelines such as face coverings.

The road to

recovery

The government has been discussing a 2 tn USD infrastructure

proposal for traditional infrastructure work, such as roads and

bridges, but would also set aside funds for 5G wireless infrastructure

and rural broadband. There is also discussion around stimulating the

renewable energy sector. As the economy continues to weaken, the

government is considering a second stimulus package similar to the

C.A.R.E.S. Act that was originally passed in March 2020.

Source: IMF, Agility Logistics, U.S. White House, New York State Office of Governor, New York Empire State Development, Illinois Office of Governor, Illinois State Treasurer's Office, Illinois Department of Commerce, California Office of Governor, New York Times, US Department of the Treasury, US Small Business Association, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Chronicle, Associated Press, National Public Radio *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected

Travel restrictions Restrictions on social interactions Business operation status

Domestic InternationalForeigner entry

ban

Mandatory

quarantinePublic gathering Work from home Education Retail Business Manufacturing Logistics

Open Partial Yes No Yes Partial Partial Reduced Open Reduced


Operating with low capacity

Limited flights Ban includes EU and Sweden

Recommended 14 day

Limited gathering #

Voluntary, capacity limits

Partially open with restrictions

Reduced capacity

Business as usual

Capacity reduced 30-40%

-6,1% -3,6% -6,2%

9,4% 9,2%

GDP 2020 GlobalExports

GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact

Ann-Sofie SafaTrade Commissioner [email protected]

Country reports: Americas

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Steady decline in cases makes for good recovery in Canada as

most provinces are now in phase two of three of re-opening

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 9.80% of GDP

• Canada Revenue Agency has deferred tax-filling and tax-

payment deadline without penalties or incurring interest until

August 31st

• Government has issued interest free loans for up to 30,000

USD to small businesses

• Emergency Response Benefit program offers 1,500 USD/

month (up to 24 w) for Canadians unable to work due to COVID-19

• Federal funds rate lowered by 150bp in March to 0-0.25bp

24

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Ontario has, alongside most Canadian provinces, entered phase two

(of three) of re-opening of the economy. Within this phase businesses

deemed non-essential can resume operations and non-essential

workers are allowed back to work. The government still

encourages people to work from home if possible, while most retail

and hospitality businesses operate with reduced capacity and must

follow strict social distancing and safety guidelines.

The road to

recovery

The lion’s share of federal budgetary measures so far have been aimed

at supporting household income. The government has now committed

to a 2 bn USD infrastructure funding program for Canadian cities. The

government has also set up a 40 bn USD initiative called The Federal

Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program. The program will

help businesses deal with the high costs of running a business while

COVID-19 is still a threat.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, Agility Logistics, conference board of Canada, Toronto star, Ontario.ca, globe and mail, Canada.ca, IMF, BDC *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected

Travel restrictions Restrictions on social interactions Business operations status


entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Yes Yes Partial Closed Open Open Reduced


Reduced flights and capacity

Limited flights Closed to non-essential visitors

14 days No gatherings over 10 people

Encouraged if possible

Estimated to resume in Sept

Reduced capacity

Business as usual

Capacity reduced 30-40%

-9,1% -2,4% -7,0%

52,2%

-2,2%GDP 2020 Global

ExportsGlobal

ImportsExports to

SwedenImports

fromSweden

Contact:

Christina KeighrenTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Business is partially reopened in major Brazilian cities, but the

recovery to pre-pandemic sales levels is expected to be slow

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 11.00% of GDP

• Tax deferral for SMEs liabilities, bank loans and taxes applicable to

medical and emergency related products

• Corporate credit package of 60 bn USD from public banks with

focus on working capital, plus advantageous credit lines for SMEs

• 40 bn USD in deposits to low income population and temporary

workers, in 120 USD monthly installments during the next months

• New infrastructure investments program worth 56 bn USD,

focused on public-private partnerships, details to be announced

25

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Large urban centers, such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, seem to

have reached a plateau of COVID-19 transmission, and have therefore

started to partially reopen non-essential activities such as commerce.

Meanwhile cities in the countryside, as well as initially less affected

capitals, see a new rise of transmission. Most industries are operating

once again but with decreased capacity due to a weaker domestic

demand.

The road to

recovery

Announced corporate credit and employment stimuli will be central to

protect small companies and entrepreneurs. Business has moved

towards digitalization, as food service and retail face a quick dive into

digital channels. Public debt constraints and a sluggish economic

growth during recent years point to limited governmental spending to

support economic recovery, and so investments will be led by the

private sector through the privatization of public infrastructure assets.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, OECD, IMF, Agility, IATA, Brazil Ministry of Economy, Brazil Ministry of Health, Sao Paulo State Gov, Folha, Jornal Estado SP, Valor *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Yes No Yes Partial Closed Reduced Open Reduced

1 August 1 August N/A N/A 8 September N/A N/A


Only for repatriation

Closed to foreigners

Quarantine is recommended

Restricted in most regions

Voluntary adoption

Public and private closed

Restricted in most regions


Reduced air cargo traffic

-7,5% -5,4%

3,9%

-57,9%

20,0%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Andreas RentnerTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

26


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 16% of GDP

• Tax deferral program, reduced employer fees and job

retention schemes implemented for affected companies

• 4 bn USD support package to businesses that have lost more than

30% of sales

• Credit packages of $50 billion, including a 70% state loan

guarantee and an increased loan limit for exporting companies

27

A soft lockdown has kept the Swedish economy going, economic

recovery is heavily dependent on the international market outlook

-4,5%-2,9%

-9,2%

GDP 2020 Global Exports Global Imports

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Economic activity in the manufacturing industry hit record low levels

in May, but large companies such as Scania and Volvo are now

gradually restarting their production. Unemployment rates have

reached 9%, up 2 percentage points from the same time last year. The

pandemic has affected sectors differently with the tourist sector

suffering the most due to the decline in international visitors, while

the retail sector experienced an increase by 1.5% in May compared to

last year, mainly driven by consumer goods and DIY.

The road to

recovery

Sweden’s open economy is dependent on international trade and

investment and the country’s economic recovery relies in part on how

the situation develops for its main trading partners, and less on

domestic recovery measures. Lower degree of lockdown combined

with high digital maturity contribute to companies being able to stay

operational during the pandemic and consequently in a position to

react swiftly as restrictions are lifted globally. Major infrastructure

projects in Sweden’s national transport plan are in general

implemented as planned.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, National Institute of Economic Research, regeringen.se *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial No Partial Partial No Open Open Open

15 July 7 July N/A N/A

Operating as usual

Avoid non-essential travel

Entry ban outside EU/EEA

No mandatory quarantine

>50 people Encouraged if possible

All schools open from June

Business as usual

Business as usual

Business as usual

Contact:

Cecilia LeiramInvest Manager [email protected]

Country reports: EMEA

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Germany is emerging from the crisis by boosting the economy into

modernization and sustainability

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• 56 bn USD of stimulus package to areas that are crucial for

future growth and sustainability e.g. sustainable mobility,

energy transition, AI, pandemic protection, education & research

• Aid package 2.25 bn USD for start-ups, young technology

companies and small and medium-sized enterprises

• One-time bonus for families with children of 337 USD per child

• Temporary VAT reduction from 19% to 16% between July 1st to

December 31st, 2020

28

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Source: Federal Statistical Office, Robert Koch Institut, The Federal Government, Federal Ministry of Finance *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected ** Persons entering the Federal Republic of Germany, who have spent time in a risk area at any specific period within 14 days prior to entry, may be subject to quarantine under the specific quarantine ordinances issued by the federal state More info: click here *** Differences between regions overall Germany no more than 500 people



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Partial Partial No Partial Open Open Open

31 Aug 31 Aug N/A N/A Aug/Sep

Operating as usual

Borders to non EU closed

Open to EU citizens

Exceptions apply**

Regional differences ***

Recommended, not required

Open after summer break

Capacity limit & mask required

Social distance; hygienic rules


-6,1% -5,9% -5,9% -1,9%

0,6%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:Johan HolmlundActing Country [email protected]

Current

State

Societal functions are reopening and gradually nearing completion

with only large events prohibited. Production is catching up but still

negatively impacted due to lower global demand. In May 2020,

around 17% of all employees in Germany (7.3 million) were registered

on short-time work and the unemployment rate increased from 4.9%

(December 2019) to 6.1% (May 2020).

The road to

recovery

The government aims to give the economy a powerful boost to

safeguard jobs and to bring Germany into an environmentally

sustainable future. Due to the outbreak and the restrictions Germany

has been forced to modernize and digitalize its working processes.

Swedish companies can find opportunities in the development of

green projects and a more digital landscape. A government launched

COVID-19-Warn-App governs contacts with infected persons and

helps interrupt chains of infections more quickly.


https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Risikogebiete_neu.html

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 5 % of GDP

• Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self-employed

Scheme are implemented and extended until October

• Large Business Interruption Loans and Bounce Back Loans

provide financial support to large sized businesses and SMEs

• Tax relief including deferral of certain VAT and income tax

payments for businesses affected by COVID-19

• Business rates holiday for nurseries, retail, and leisure businesses

29

The UK enters step three of easing the lockdown, and economists

say Britain’s economy is on track for a sharp V-shaped recovery

-8,3% -12,4% -17,4% -11,4%-7,0%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

The UK economy has started to recover with looser restrictions and a

sector by sector approach that – from July 4th, phase three – enable

the majority of industries to return. The UK lags behind its European

neighbors in reopening society, despite this the PMI decline is slowing

down across all industries as a sign of the impact of looser restrictions.

Bank of England estimates that the economy could end the first half of

2020 around 20% smaller compared to the start of the year.

The road to

recovery

The UK government has set out a recovery plan focusing on the

industry, a green recovery, backing new businesses, and attracting

investments. The hope is that a building boom will drive an economic

recovery and the plan is to invest 6.15 bn USD in infrastructure

projects in road networks, improvements to transport, building of

schools and maintenance – this could bring opportunities for Swedish

companies. However, the UK faces another economic challenge at the

end of this year when the Brexit transition period ends.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, Bank of England, UK Government; HM Revenue & Customs *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Open Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A September

Operating as usual

Operating as usual

Operating as usual

14 days at specified facility

Restrictions apply

If you can, work from home

All pupils back to school in Sept

Business as usual

Business as usual

Business as usual

Contact:

Gustaf BergströmTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Current

State

Societal functions have reopened, yet a significant part of the

workforce is still working from home which leads to some inefficiency

and delays in external communication. Production is still at lower

levels than usual but recovering. The retail sector is picking up but still

experiences a lower household demand. Culture, sports and other

events are still strongly impacted, due to the ban on big gatherings, set

to remain at least until September.

The road to

recovery

The government promotes returning to the workplace and to reaching

normal levels of activity in the retail and the manufacturing sector.

The industrial sector is planning for reshoring of production from

overseas (mostly Asia) back to France. In its recovery packages, the

government focuses on green recovery and digital development.

Swedish companies can find opportunities in the ongoing

reindustrialization (e.g. reorganization of supply chains) as well as in

the increased focus on sustainability and digitalization.

France invests in green and digital transformation of the industrial

sector to support the economic recovery

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• 366 bn USD of State-guaranteed treasury loans

• Solidarity fund for small companies

• Postponement of direct taxes as well as social and fiscal

charges from March to June for companies risking bankruptcy

• Reduction of price of utilities for small companies

• Up to 11,ooo USD in direct aid to companies in hard hit

sectors

30

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Source: Business Sweden analysis; IMF Global Economic Outlook April 2020; OECD; French Ministry of Economic and financial affairs; French Ministry of Foreign affairs *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected **Australia, Canada, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, Thailand, Uruguay, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Montenegro, Serbia and Georgia



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Partial Partial No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Operating as usual

Partially open to non-EU

EU; 14 non-EU countries**

For travelers from UK

Max. 5,000 people

Business as usual

Schools open and mandatory



Some delays and shortages

Contact:

Annika StålTrade Commissioner [email protected]

-9,9% -10,2% -10,7% -8,3%

0,8%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Spain is determined to rise through sustainable transformation and

investments while increasing resiliency in most critical sectors

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Credit guarantee programs of total 110 bn USD to companies

and self-employed - granted until December 31st

• 11.2 bn USD increase in the net borrowing limit of the ICO

(Spanish equivalent of the EIB) to increase existing lines of credit

• Temporary layoff (ERTE) benefits and support for independent

contractors extended until September 30th

• Industry specific subsidies - 4.8 bn USD to the tourist sector and

3.8 bn USD to the automotive

31

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Source: Business Sweden analysis, El País, Spanish Government, El Expansion, Energy News, Comunidad de Madrid, Ajuntament de Barcelona *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Open No No Partial Partial Partial Reduced Open Open

N/A N/A 1 September N/A

Operating as usual

Ticket availability can be limited

No restrictions No quarantine is required

Regional differences

Highly recommended

Schools mainly open from Sept

Capacity limit & hygiene rules

Hygiene rules apply

Delays may occur

-9,8% -6,0% -7,4%

15,5%

-9,5%GDP 2020 Global

ExportsGlobal

ImportsExports to

SwedenImports

fromSweden

Contact:

Samira Grylin-AllalouTrade Commissioner [email protected]

Current

State

Societal functions have re-opened but still running on limited capacity

due to restrictions. Restrictions will apply for as long as the country is

in what is called the “new normal”. Local consumer demand remains

weak with five-fold savings increase and hesitations to make

purchases. Unemployment rate is currently at 14.1% and could rise to

above 19% by the end of 2020 according to the Bank of Spain. Tourism

and automotive sectors ability to bounce back will greatly impact

national recovery as the two make up 22% of national GDP.

The road to

recovery

The government has introduced several measures to support

businesses including liquidity loans and temporary layoff benefits.

Meanwhile, following a new law on climate and enhancement for a

circular economy, Spain is determined to restore the economy through

sustainability. Further, 168 bn USD has been earmarked for public

investment in 2021-22 if Spain is to receive its portion of the EU

recovery fund. Opportunities will rise for Swedish companies across

sectors in order for Spain to meet the climate goals.


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Italy acknowledges need for reforms towards digital and green, as

new recovery plan is being formulated

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Three response packages with a total budget impact of 85 bn

USD. Total fiscal measures amount to 8.90 % of GDP

• 1.9 bn USD Fund to provide fee-free guarantee for SMEs loans

• State guarantee for up to 11 bn USD in new loans for medium-

large firms

• Exemption from the payment of the Regional production

tax (IRAP) for companies with revenues <280 mn USD

• 680 mn USD for 60% tax credit on commercial rents

32

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Source: Business Sweden analysis, OECD, Confindustria, IMF, Italian Government, Ministry of Economic Development *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected **Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay, China ***Regional differences my occur



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Partial Partial Partial Closed Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 14 September

Operating as usual

Partially open to non-EU

EU; 15 non-EU countries **

14 days for non EU citizens

1,000 outdoors, 200 indoors ***

Recommended, not required

Schools reopen in Sept

Capacity limit, hygienic rules

Social distance, hygienic rules

Potential delays

-9,3%-5,3%

-8,7%-4,2%

-8,0%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Martin SkooghTrade Commissioner [email protected]

Current

State

Societal functions have reopened. Industry and parts of the service

sector restarted quite quickly since restrictions were gradually lifted in

late April. However, Italy is experiencing a slow recovery due to low

economic confidence impacting consumption and investments, as well

as a weak demand for exports and tourism. Domestic demand remains

low and private consumption is expected to drop 10,5% in 2020.

Tourism sector risks to remain weak in the medium term and impact

recovery as it makes up 13% of GDP.

The road to

recovery

The government has introduced several measures to support

businesses and boost liquidity by guaranteeing loans, deferring tax

payments and tax credits. The government is currently working on a 9

chapter "Relaunch Plan“ with reforms focusing on; digitization,

infrastructure investments, green economy, industry 4.0,

modernization of the tourism industry and investments in research

and health. Swedish companies can find opportunities in this

transition and in upcoming infrastructure and digitalization projects.


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

UAE pushing to open for international tourism to alleviate crucial

Dubai tourism sector, Abu Dhabi heavily impacted by low oil prices

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 2 % of GDP

• Equivalent of 70 bn USD released by Central

Bank through zero interest loans directed towards private

companies

• Separate recovery packages from Dubai (408 mn USD) and Abu

Dhabi (2.5 bn USD)

• Extended deadline for filing and paying VAT returns

33

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

The country is re-opened with most businesses back to operation, but

some domestic travel restrictions remain in place. Hospitality and

tourism sectors are hit hardest due to almost no influx of tourists.

Decreased oil prices have strained revenues and thereby budgets in

Abu Dhabi. Project cancellations and/or postponements expected,

albeit improved outlook in recent weeks. Important to note that

restrictions and lockdown measures vary between Emirates, as they

act largely independently.

The road to

recovery

Severe drop in demand in key sectors brings a weakened market

outlook. As the market re-adjusts to a new normal, a significantly

increased demand for digital solutions brings opportunities for

Swedish companies. Increased focus on the healthcare system also

generates opportunities for Swedish solution providers. In the long-

term, decreased oil revenues could speed up implementation of

sustainable energy solutions. As an effect of global supply chain

shocks, food security is becoming a key priority, an area where Sweden

has several relevant solutions.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, IMF, WHO, Financial Times, Reuters, Gulf News, Khaleej Times, DP World, UAE Central Bank, Arab Weekly, Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, EMIR, IMF, Agility *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Partial Partial Partial Yes Partial Partial Closed Reduced Open Reduced

N/A 7 July 7 July N/A N/A 5 July September N/A N/A

Open as of 30 June

Residents can return

Tourists from 7 July

14 days if positive test

No private gatherings

Public sector in Abu Dhabi

Schools open from September

Operating with limitations

Business as usual

Reduced freight capacity

-7,8% -1,3% 0,0%

4,1% 92,8%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Massoud BioukiTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Saudi Arabia's state finances crippled by drop in oil revenues,

government increased VAT to 15% in a drastic countermeasure

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Equivalent of 58.3 bn USD of credit and loan packages,

primarily for SMEs to continue operations and alleviate liquidity

• Government to pay 60% of the salaries for Saudi nationals

in the private sector

• Increased VAT from 5% to 15% as well as increased custom tariffs

for certain products

• All government agencies to cut budgets by minimum 20%

• Mega projects will receive reduced budgets around 8 bn USD

34

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Nationwide lockdown was lifted June 21st and business activities are

starting up. Shops and malls operate with limited capacity. Decrease

in oil price will result in postponed and/or cancelled investments, such

as the country's much awaited mega projects. Since a majority of the

economy is driven by the government, the double effect of reduced oil

revenues and reduced demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic have

had extensive effects on governmental budgets.

The road to

recovery

The increase of VAT and custom tariffs will pose challenges for

Swedish companies and it is important to take into account when

setting the roadmap to recovery. Efforts to lessen oil dependence

might be ramped up as a result of the low oil price. Swedish companies

should position themselves as partners in this transformation.

Increased demand for digital tools and services also bring

opportunities for Swedish companies post COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, WHO, Financial Times, Reuters, Gulf News, Khaleej Times, DP World, UAE Central Bank, Arab Weekly, Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, EMIR, IMF, Agility *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Yes Yes Partial No Closed Reduced Reduced Reduced


Operating as usual


Date to be confirmed

14 days at home Max. 5 people Not required E-learning from home



Lack of manpower

-7,5%-19,9%

-5,8% -0,9%

37,0%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Niclas CarlssonTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

South Africa has employed a phased approach to reopening the

economy with focus on “essential industries”

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• 4 bn USD tax relief that includes deferral of tax payments on

excise duties, carbon tax, and employee's tax.

• Credit packages of 28 bn USD including rescheduling of

repayment and lower interest on existing debts.

• Repo rate lowered by 50 basis points, taking it to 3.75% per

annum, with effect from May 22nd.

35

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Societal functions are almost back to normal with the government

employing a phased reopening of the economy. Currency volatility

remains a main worry as the South African Rand has depreciated by

22.9% against the USD since January 2020. Local production has

started to increase as the lockdown measures are lifted and employees

are permitted to work but under strict regulations.

The road to

recovery

The South African government has been trying to stimulate local

demand by increasing social spending and promoting domestic

consumption, among other stimulus. Focus has been on upgrading

and refurbishing the country’s health sector in addition to relief efforts

targeting distressed companies that have been negatively affected by

the lockdown.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, STATSSA, SARS, South African Reserve Bank *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Partial Closed Yes Yes Partial No Partial Open Open Open


Restricted to Business travel


Per bilateral agreements

14 days at specified fac.

Not more than 50 individuals

Encouraged where possible

Only for essential grades

Business as usual

Business as usual

Business as usual

Contact:

Ludvig HermanssonTrade Commissioner [email protected]

-9,1%

2,9%

-9,4%-20,4% -20,7%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden


mailto:[email protected]

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

36


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

− Americas

− EMEA

− APAC

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

China is investing in infrastructure critical for future industries,

but the biggest pain point remains to be reduced external demand

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• More than 1.4 tn USD in new infrastructure projects related to

5G and Industrial Revolution 4.0

• 559 bn USD in cost cuts in the form of tax exemptions and lower

interest rates for companies

• Import duty exemptions for medical supplies and for equipment

that has been used to battle the pandemic

• Military spending is set to increase by 6.6% in next budget

37

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Societal functions are back to normal, and businesses can operate

more or less freely, but the lack of global demand remains an issue,

along with changing consumer habits hitting industries like F&B,

tourism, and events. Domestic travel is more or less unrestricted as

long as the traveler has health status QR code, but travel is still

reduced due to fear of new lockdowns or a second wave of the virus.

The road to

recovery

The government has launched strategic support policies in terms of

speeding up the roll-out of 5G and other key industries that will

reduce costs for SMEs and become a competitive advantage for China

in the future. In order to deal with unemployment China has lifted

restrictions on street vendors in some locations to spur the economy

and create alternative income sources.

Source: Chinese State Council, MOFCOM, China Daily, Trivium *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Yes Yes No No Open Open Open Reduced

N/A Est. Q3-Q4 N/A N/A

Operating as usual


Bilateral agreements

14 days at specified fac.

Business as usual

Not required Schools are open

Business as usual

Business as usual

Reduced capacity

0,8%

-11,1% -4,1% -14,5%

29,2%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Joakim Abeleen Market Area [email protected]

Country reports: APAC

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

India is on the road to recovery with government stimulus and

business operations inching towards pre-COVID-19 performance

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Reduced and deferred tax provisions for both corporates and

individuals

• Liquidity injections to the magnitude of 4% of GDP

• Reduction in repo rate by 115 basis points

• 39 bn USD collateral free loan with 100% credit guarantee

• Exemption from customs duty and taxes for ventilators, face

masks and surgical masks, PPE, COVID-19 testing kits

31 July

38

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Business operations are gradually coming back to normal with aim to

achieve pre-COVID-19-level performance. The market is seeing a

weaker demand although significant government indicators such as

electricity usage and digital transactions, etc. indicate a strong

recovering economy. India's economy is projected to contract by 5.7%

in 2020 as the global economy contracts by 4.6%.

The road to

recovery

The government is stimulating demand by increasing spending on

infrastructure, encouraging domestic manufacturing, rolling out policy

reforms and offering tax exemptions. Swedish companies can leverage

opportunities in manufacturing, infrastructure, healthcare,

space technology and rapidly growing Digital/ICT industry.

Source: 1. Government of India - Ministry of Home Affairs guidelines, 2. IMF, 3. News Articles- Economic Times *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected

Travel restrictions Restrictions on social interactions Business operations


entry ban

Mandatory


Partial Partial Closed Yes Partial Partial Closed Reduced Open Open

31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July

Limited trains and flights

Repatriation only

Rules apply 14 days at specified fac.

Depending on occasion

WFH recommended

Until further notice

Business as usual

Business as usual

Business as usual

-5,7%-11,5% -9,2%

0,5%

-24,6%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Anders WickbergTrade [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Japan aims to recover from industrial downturn with a large

stimulus package corresponding to more than 40% of GDP

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Tax deferral program implemented applicable to both affected

entities and individuals

• Extended loan guarantees are offered through the Japan Federation

of Credit Guarantee Corporation (JFG)

• Customs duty and VAT are exempted if the goods are proven to

be donated free of charge. Prioritized or urgent customs clearance

for relief goods related to COVID-19

39

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Societal functions are back to normal. However, production is

negatively impacted due to lower global demand. The important

automotive sector is negatively affected. In May, auto production fell

by a third from the previous month. As the economy tries to recover

from the recession as well as due to the impact during the emergency

status, the latest business sentiment among Japan's large

manufacturers has plunged to the lowest level in more than a decade.

The road to

recovery

With the second supplementary budget plan, the government aims to

strengthen the medical system, protect employment and provide

support to those affected. Swedish companies can take advantage of

this momentum where society tries to transform to more digital, safe

and innovative methods in the areas of self-efficiency in

manufacturing as well as food production, life science, and ICT.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, METI, Japan Customs, Nikkei, Japan Times *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Yes Yes Partial Partial Partial Open Open Open

N/A N/A N/A August N/A N/A

Travel is allowed

Only open for Vietnam

Only citizens allowed entry

14 days at home or hotel

TBD TBD Disrupted schedules

Business as usual

Business as usual

Business as usual

-6,5% -5,6% -8,4% -26,8%

17,6%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Carsten GrönbladTrade [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Effects on Korea's trade dependent economy continue to ease as

key trading partners are lifting restrictions and stimulus kicks in

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Tax deferral program implemented (e.g. VAT, Income and

Corporate Tax) applicable to both affected entities and individuals

• Credit packages as a part of financial stabilization

package including rescheduling of repayment and emergency

lending mainly for SMEs

• Import duty exemptions for medical supplies and equipment and

preferential import and export tariffs for several industries

40

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Most societal functions operate unrestrained. However, industry

production is negatively impacted due to lower global demand. The

public discourse favors a reduced external reliance and

encourages reshoring and diversification of Korean production

bases. While offline consumer businesses, especially those

involving interpersonal contact, are experiencing waning demand,

firms are diversifying distribution and bolstering digitalization.

The road to

recovery

The government has launched several comprehensive financial

stimulus packages to boost local demand by promoting domestic

consumption and supporting several industries. The government

recently introduced a "Korean New Deal" investment project (62 bn

USD) in AI, 5G, and Green energy to boost growth and job. Swedish

companies can take advantage of those projects within digital and

zero-carbon infrastructure and related incentives.

Source: IATA; MOTIE; KITA; IMF; Agility; PwC Samil; Korea Herald *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Yes No Partial Open Open Open Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Operating as usual

Constrained Per bilateral agreements

14 days at specified facility

Contingency plan in effect

Government recommends

Schools open since June

Business as usual

Business as usual

Due to low exports

-0,7% -1,9% -3,4%-24,1%

-2,4%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Johan ChunTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Singapore will accelerate digitalization as technology becomes

increasingly vital in businesses to resume normal activities

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package


• Tax deferral program up to 3 months implemented (CIT)

applicable to all businesses

• Central bank interest rate reduced from 0.83% to 0.37%

• Rental relief for SMEs operating in qualifying non-residential

properties.

• Support for corporate transformation with Enterprise

Development Grant: for companies with projects that upgrade the

business, innovate or venture overseas

41

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

While businesses and societal functions opened up, businesses are still

relatively cautious about the demand recovery and the ongoing supply

chain disruptions.

Retail sales plunged 40.5% y-o-y in April as all non-essential shopping

(that cannot be bought in supermarkets) had to be done online.

The road to

recovery

Further down the road, the economy will undergo structural changes

that will disrupt industries and cause job losses.

Singapore will continue to deploy resources to support businesses and

invest in their workforce to go through the economic restructuring.

Singapore will spend an estimated 2.5 bn USD on the procurement of

information and communications technology (ICT) this financial year

to boost the economy and support businesses recovering from the

COVID-19 outbreak.

Source: Business Sweden analysis, Monetary Authority of Singapore, IMF *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected

Contact:

Emil AkanderTrade Commissioner [email protected]

-5,8%

14,0%8,5%

-1,0% -3,7%GDP 2020 Global

ExportsGlobal

ImportsExports to

SwedenImports

fromSweden



entry ban

Mandatory


Open Partial Partial Partial Reduced Partial Partial Reduced Reduced Reduced

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Business as usual

Exceptions apply

Subject to approval

Exceptions apply

Up to 5 persons Exceptions apply

Home/school teaching

Limited capacity

Limited capacity


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Australia is using construction and infrastructure as catalysts for

recovery combined with a low emission technology roadmap

GDP forecast

(full year 2020)* &

Trade development

(Q1 2019/2020, %)

Key components in

recovery package

• Total fiscal measures amount to 11.71 % of GDP,~180 bn

USD in fiscal and balance sheet support

• Businesses can benefit from instant asset write-off and

investment incentives (with accelerated depreciation)

• A specific ~475 mn USD grant package to support the construction

industry. Other sector specific stimulus are also available (e.g.

0.7 bn USD for most severely affected sectors)

• Commission to increase Australian long-term manufacturing

competitiveness and large campaign to consume Australian made

42

RECOVERY OVERVIEW



Current

State

Australia is following a three phased approach for relaxation of the

COVID-19 restrictions. Victoria is currently facing an increase in cases

and has the strictest restrictions with less than 10 people while e.g.

Western Australia has no limit on public gatherings beyond the 2 sqm

rule. Two thirds of businesses have reported reduced revenues

compared to same period 2019 (35% have reported more than 50%

reduction in revenue), mining sector least impacted.

The road

to recovery

The government has introduced a JobKeeper program to keep

Australians in jobs. In addition, multiple stimulus packages have been

launched such as construction grants, ramping up infrastructure

investments and the launch of the Technology Investment Roadmap

aiming at accelerating low emission technologies. As Swedish

companies have strong value propositions within the above mentioned

areas there is a window of opportunity to engage within the coming

months and years.

Source: Business Sweden analysis; Australian Government Treasury, ABC News Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics COVID19 *Note: GDP projections updated June 2020, further downward revisions are expected



entry ban

Mandatory


Reduced Reduced Yes Yes Reduced Reduced Reduced Reduced Open Reduced

10 –20 July N/A 2021 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

State restrictions to be eased


No official date announced

14 days in hotel Differs across geographies

Encouraged Elementary schools open

1 p /2-4 sqm with variations

Social distancing Social distancing

-5,0% -6,4% -10,7% -43,8%

44,6%


GlobalImports

Exports toSweden

Importsfrom

Sweden

Contact:

Martin EkbergTrade Commissioner [email protected]


#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Agenda

43


● Monthly feature



● Country reports

● How we can help

#%$#%$#

BUSINESS SWEDEN

Business Sweden is an international organization with a global footprint – we

stand ready to support you in over 50 markets

44

45

More than 45 years’ experience in helping Swedish businesses succeed abroad.

500

Our staff force of ~500 people across the globe consists of multinational teams rooted in local business culture.

50+

Business Sweden is a truly global company, operating in more than 50+ markets across the world

Business Sweden’s global footprint Our presence and experience

Business Sweden helps Swedish companies grow global sales and international companies invest and expand in SwedenMarkets covered by

nearby offices

Markets with local

Business Sweden office

Understand situationWhen and where lockdown measures are lifted or enter

the next phase

Navigate new barriersWhich have emerged as part of

disruptions or increased protectionism

Plan & prepareYour local recovery plan

based on market situation and conditions

Find new opportunitiesFor sales growth or increased competitiveness by leveraging

local recovery packages

Our presence and experience allow us to:

45

Global Executive Brief

https://marketing.business-sweden.se/acton/media/28818/keep-the-wheels-turning-in-the-time-of-corona

covid-19 global executive brief - business sweden...business sweden updated 16 june 07:00 cet...

Documents