covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 2020-05-27 · 1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe,...

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update

A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL PartnershipMay 26, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states

As of May 20, 2020


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.24.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

1473.6

74.7195.4

47.1122.4

282.5

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Case

s pe

r 100

,000

Pop

ulat

ion

May 18, 2020

1714.3

80.8215.8

57.4182.8

330.3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

May 25, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by NM county


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by NM county

As of May 25, 2020


Projected doubling time

Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.25.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

Metro, 9.3

Northeast, 12.3

Northwest, 7.0

Southeast, 13.0

Southwest, 10.4

New Mexico, 8.0

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unt t

o D

oubl

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Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.25.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

324.2

12.925.2

5.8 16.1

52.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico

Hosp

italiz

atio

ns p

er 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n

New Mexico Health Region


COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use

As of May 22, 2020


COVID-19 hospitalizations by age group

Age group (years)

# Hospitalized cases (%)

<1 1 (0.10)1-4 4 (0.38)

5-14 1 (0.1)15-24 28 (2.7)25-34 81 (7.8)35-44 149 (14.3)45-54 165 (15.9)55-64 250 (24.1)65-74 178 (17.1)75-84 102 (9.8)85+ 80 (7.7)

All ages 1039

NM-EDSS on 5/22/2020 at 12:18 PM


COVID-19 age-specific hospitalization rates per 100,000 population

Source: NM Indicator-Based Information System (IBIS) was used for 2018 population estimates for each age group

NM-EDSS on 5/22/2020 at 12:18 PM


COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalization rate by race/ethnicity per 100,000 population

Note:8 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information1 hospitalized case was excluded because it was “Other Race” and there is no population estimate for “Other Race” in NM-IBIS

Race/ethnicity Age-adjusted rate per 100,000 population

American Indian or Alaska Native 409.6

Asian 14.3

Black or African American 27.4

Hispanic or Latino 15.6

White 10.2

NM-EDSS on 5/22/2020 at 12:18 PM


Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population

Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.24.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

43.6

0.5

4.6

0.52.0

12.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico

Dea

ths

per 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n (a

ge-a

djus

ted)



Crude death rate: COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 by U.S. states

As of May 20, 2020


Number of COVID-19 crude mortality rate by age group

4.6

24.3

65.1

242.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

<65 65-74 75-84 85+

Rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

As of May 22, 2020


Number of COVID-19 age-adjusted mortality rate by race/ethnicity

99.1

3.38.6

5.1 6.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

AIAN Asian/NHOPI Black/AfAm Hispanic White

Rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

As of May 22, 2020


Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death

Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 5.24.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

6.7

1.3

6.5

3.1

2.2

6.0 6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.

Case

Fat

ality

Rat

e (a

ge-a

djus

ted)



Case fatality rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death by U.S. states

As of May 20, 2020


Key points• COVID-19 prevalence continues to increase across all regions in NM

o 22nd highest prevalence in the U.S.o AI/AN have highest burden of disease across all health regions except the SE where Hispanic or Latinos

are most affectedo Highest prevalence rates in Sandoval, Guadalupe, Cibola, San Juan, and McKinley counties o Median age of cases across all race/ethnicity groups is below 50 years old except Whites who tend to

be older (median age: 60 years old)o Doubling times for all regions continue to increase including the SW region

• Hospitalization rates continue to increase across all regions with the highest rates in NW, Metro, and SWo Ventilator use remains at ~25-30% of hospitalized caseso Highest rates in McKinley, San Juan, Socorro, and Cibola counties (>50 cases/100,000)o The elderly and AI/AN groups continue to have the highest rates of hospitalizationso Hospitalized cases who self-identify as White tend to be older (median age: 70 years old)

• Mortality rates and case-fatality rates (CFRs) are highest in the NW region followed by Metro Regiono 20th highest mortality rate in the U.S.

Highest in 85+ age group and AI/AN populationo Age at death is higher in Whites than other race/ethnicity groupso NM CFR is equal to U.S. CFR after age-adjustment

NW and Metro regions have CFRs that are higher than the U.S. rate CFRs in SE and SW have decreased since last week 24th highest CFR in the U.S. (not age-adjusted)


COVID-19 in New Mexico: modeling update

As of May 26, 2020Epidemiology & Response Division


The effective rate of transmission for the state has decreased slightly since last week.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 26, 2020.

1.10


The Southwest region now has the highest rate of transmission at 1.24.



Northeast R_effective1.07 ↓

Central R_effective1.06 ↓

Southeast R_effective 1.16 ↓

SouthwestR_effective 1.24 ↑

NorthwestR_effective 1.10 ↓ Low Level Endemic

1-1.1

Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15

Requiring further mitigation >1.15

Key

As of May 19, 2020


Southwest is the only region where percent positive tests have increased during May.



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New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection - 5/26/20

Frequency - Date of Collection 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Frequency - Date of Collection)

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.


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New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Illness Onset - 5/26/20

Frequency - Date of Onset 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Frequency - Date of Onset)

Cases with illness onset during this time may not yet be reported.


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1200

1400

03-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 07-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 05-May 12-May 19-May

Case Count by Week of New Mexico Cases - 5/21/20

Sum of Frequency - Date of Onset Sum of Frequency - Date of Collection

Cases during this time may not yet be reported.


Supplementary Slide


Modeling Assumptions

Variable Measured Value Value as of 5.18.20

R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county

R_eff=1.10

Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.6

Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 0.4% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 66.3% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.6%

Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days

covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 2020-05-27 · 1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe,...

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