1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling

UpdateJuly 7, 2020

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

New Mexico has the 32nd highest prevalence in the United States

As of July 7, 2020

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

2774.0

166.3379.7

236.6

622.1 630.7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Case

s pe

r 100

,000

Pop

ulat

ion

Year-to-Date

138.7

18.0

49.2

63.572.7

60.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Last 7 Days

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 7/7/20

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Statewide R-effective has stayed steady at about 1.2 for the past 2 weeks.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 7, 2020.

1.2

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Northeast R_effective 1.1 ↓

MetroR_effective 1.3 ↓

Southeast R_effective 1.3 ↓

SouthwestR_effective 1.4 ↑

NorthwestR_effective 0.8 ↓

Low Level Endemic <1.0

Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05

Requiring further mitigation >1.05

Key

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 7, 2020.

As of June 29, 2020

Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval

State 1.2 [0.8, 1.6]

Metro 1.3 [0.6, 2.0]

Northeast 1.1 [0.0, 3.4]

Northwest 0.8 [0.0, 1.8]

Southeast 1.3 [0.3, 2.7]

Southwest 1.4 [0.6, 2.4]

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Only the Northwest region currently has decreasing growth.

↑ Increasing case counts

↓ Decreasing case counts

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Percent Positive Tests

June 23 – July 6June 9 – June 22

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020Positive samples collected during this

time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 7, 2020

Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

El Paso, TX has had a significant spike in cases over the last few weeks

>150 cases confirmed near the border with NM (as of July 5, 2020)Source: http://epstrong.org/results.php

Day by day cases (as of July 2, 2020)

El Paso County cases by zip code• Recent triple-digit spikes in daily cases: 248 on 7/6

• Total cases: 7,461 of which 4,546 are recoveredo Additional cases in existing clusters in a detention facility and

an elderly care facilityo 218 cases hospitalized of which 28 are on ventilators

• Effective 7/2, Governor Greg Abbott mandated face coveringso Commercial entity or other building or any public spaceo Attending a protest or demonstration involving more than 10

people.o In an outdoor space, face covering is required only if social

distancing (6 ft) cannot be maintained.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Hospitalization rates continue to increase across all regions with the largest increase in the NW

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

491.6

17.7 35.110.6

38.479.8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

June 29, 2020

516.4

18.738.2

14.743.5

85.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

July 6, 2020

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Hospitalizations are declining, and ventilator use remains ~30%

As of July 2, 2020

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 deaths are declining

1 112111

211

21

4

2

45

1

6

3

77

45

1

5

99

766

910

8

5

1011

14

10

5

8

10

1213

88

12

10

89

676

34

6

8

10

8

3

676

910

555

7

434

6

1

6

454

65

32

6

2

5

2

8

1

5

1

33

12122

34

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

163/

23

3/30 4/

6

4/13

4/20

4/27 5/

4

5/11

5/18

5/25 6/

1

6/8

6/15

6/22

6/29

Cum

ulat

ive

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

Dai

ly N

umbe

r of D

eath

s

Cumulative Deaths

Reporting through 7/3/2020

511

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Case fatality rates (CFR) across regions have changed minimally since last week

Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 7.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

7.2%

1.6%

4.9%

1.2%

2.8%

5.6%

4.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.

Case

Fat

ality

Rat

e (a

ge-a

djus

ted)

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Male CFR continues to be greater than female CFR

6.8%

4.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

M F

Perc

enta

geCOVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Gender, New Mexico

Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 deaths among those infected disproportionately affect the American Indian/Alaska Native population

7.0%

2.2%2.8%

4.3%

0.0%

4.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

AIAN Asian Black/AfAm Hispanic NHOPI White

Perc

enta

ge

COVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Race/Ethnicity, New Mexico

Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.

AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Males have a higher CFR compared to females across most race/ethnicity groups

9.2%

5.4%

0.0%

3.6%

0.0%

5.9% 5.8%

3.2%

0.0% 0.0%

5.1%4.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

AIAN Asian Black/AfAm Hispanic NHOPI White

Perc

enta

ge

Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases. AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Males who self-identify as American Indian/Alaska Native or Hispanic have the greatest years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 65. Male YPLL is higher than that of their female counterparts within these two race/ethnicity groups.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

MaleW

hite

Hisp

anic

Blac

k/Af

AmAs

ian/

NHO

PIAI

AN

Years Lost Due to Early DeathReporting through 7/3/2020

AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Higher CFRs for cases with pre-existing conditions and is exacerbated if hospitalized. Sex differences indicate high rates in males compared to females regardless of pre-existing conditions.

5.2%

2.9%1.9%

0.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Male Female Male Female

Pre-existing Conditions No Pre-existing Conditions

Not Hospitalized

20.8%

15.3%

11.6%

5.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Male Female Male Female

Pre-existing Conditions No Pre-existing Conditions

Hospitalized

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

New Mexico Status Updates

• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts are increasing.

• Hospitalizations: For the past three weeks, hospitalizations have declined.

• Deaths: Deaths have been steadily declining since mid-May.

• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico is on the rise and, in some counties, is reaching pre-pandemic levels.

• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Supplementary Slides

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

Modeling Assumptions

Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.29.20

R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county

R_eff=1.21

Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.1

Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 0.2% ICU 0.2%Vent Rate 63.5% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.1%

Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days