cpc’s cfs.v2 assessment and implementation briefing
DESCRIPTION
CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing. GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012. Current Real-time Extended-Range Forecast Configuration. Implemented April, 2011 – Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) Old system - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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1Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012
CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing
GPC – Washington Summary Report27 March, 2012
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Current Real-time Extended-Range Forecast Configuration
• Implemented April, 2011 – Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2)
• Old system– Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFS.v1) –
implemented September, 2004 – Still operational (at least until 31st October,
2012)
2Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012
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CFS.v1 CFS.v2Atmosphere GFS 2003 (T62/L64) GFS2009 (T126/L64)
Land OSU 2-L NOAH 4-L
Ocean MOM3 MOM4
Sea ice Climatology Predicted
CO2Fixed at 1988 level Evolving with time
Initial conditions R2/GODAS CFSR
Hindcast 15/month ~24/month (4 runs / 5 days)
Forecast 4 runs/day4 runs/day (seasonal)16 runs/day (45 days)
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
CFS Version 1 vs. Version 2
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March, 2012
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CFS.v2 Real-time Forecast Configuration
• Coupled model– T126/L64– MOM4– MOM4- Sea-ice
• Seasonal: 4 runs/day; 9-month predictions• Monthly: 16 runs/day; 45-day predictions• Initial conditions for the ocean, atmosphere, land
are from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
• Real-time forecast products are calibrated based on the hindcasts climatology
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CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Seasonal
• Period : 1982 - 2010• 4 runs/day; every 5th day• Hindcasts are used for
– Lead time dependent climatology– Calibration (mean; standard deviation)– Skill assessments and skill masks
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CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Monthly
• Period : 1999- 2010• 4 runs/day; 45 day• Hindcasts are used for
– Calibration (mean; standard deviation)– Skill assessments and skill masks
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Seasonal Forecasts
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Seasonal Forecasts : Hindcast Verification
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Nino34 SST standard deviation
CFSv1
CFSv2
Obs Obs
CFSv1 CFSv2CFS.v1 vs. CFS.v2
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Hindcast anomaly Correlation – Sfc. Temp.
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T2M: HSS in Spatial Domain
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Monthly Forecasts
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Monthly Forecasts
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a. CFS.v1Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/
Monthly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/monthPlot.html
b. CFS.v2Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/Monthly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/
Weekly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2HCST/metrics/
Forecast Display
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a. CFS.v1http://www.cdacb.in/html/spim_data.aspx
b. CFS.v2NCEP: http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid0/cfsv2/reforecast.monthlyNCDC: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs-refor
Hindcast Data
a. CFS.v1ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/
b. CFS.v2 http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs
Forecast Data
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National MME (NMME)
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National MME (NMME)
• http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/
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Questions?
19Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012